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IN THIS EDITION

How the Senate’s shutdown showdown could play out

Musk stars in Dem ads as top antagonist

The Vault: A good ol’ fashioned Banking markup with a lot on the line

The Ones to Watch: Advancing with AI

Aguilar talks DOGE, Trump and Dem unity

THE TOP

How the Senate’s shutdown showdown could play out

Happy Thursday morning.

The federal government shuts down Friday at midnight. And we’ve hit some major bumps.

On Wednesday afternoon, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer declared that Republicans “do not have the votes” to clear a procedural hurdle and pass the House GOP-drafted CR. That measure would fund the federal government through Sept. 30. Schumer instead wrapped his arms around Democrats’ proposed short-term CR running through mid-April. However, that currently isn’t a live option.

First of all, let’s state the obvious: Republicans have 53 senators. It takes 60 to invoke cloture. So Schumer was essentially saying that Senate Democrats won’t give Senate Majority Leader John Thune the votes needed to pass the CR.

At least not yet.

Thune filed cloture on the House-passed CR Wednesday night, the first step in bringing this partisan showdown to a head. Thune set up a cloture vote for Friday.

At this late stage, a time agreement would be necessary in order to avert at least a temporary shutdown.

There are two basic ways this week can go.

1) What we wrote Wednesday morning is emerging as the most appealing scenario to Democrats. They would provide the votes needed for cloture in exchange for Senate Republican leaders granting them an amendment vote on the Democrats’ CR proposal, which would extend government funding until April 11.

That would permit Democrats to go on record opposing a shutdown while allowing Republicans to pass the House’s CR on their own.

This play really wouldn’t achieve anything substantive for Schumer. It’s theater.

The Democrats’ 28-day CR won’t have the votes needed to pass, even at a simple majority threshold. It’s really a face-saving measure for Democrats who want to show their base that they’re fighting back against President Donald Trump, Elon Musk and DOGE. Several progressive groups released statements Wednesday night praising Schumer and Senate Democrats for their hardline stance on the House CR. We’ll see how these groups react after this showdown runs its course.

Democrats have also been making the case that a shutdown in this particular moment could be one of the worst in history. The issue was a major focus of Democrats’ lunch meeting on Wednesday, which can be interpreted as a sign of where things are headed. More on that in a bit.

Thune told us that Democratic leaders hadn’t yet presented an offer on amendments but added he’s “open to those conversations and discussions.”

“They’re still trying to figure out how they want to see this wrap up,” Thune said of Democrats. “If they want to set up some sort of consent agreement where we vote on that, we’ll see. We just haven’t heard from them yet.”

Thune doesn’t need to grant a Democratic demand for amendment votes. But it would probably be in his interest to do so. It could be the only way to unlock a time agreement, allowing the Senate to pass a funding bill before the Friday night deadline. So the clock is giving Democrats a bit of leverage here.

Democrats say a short-term CR allows more time for negotiations over an omnibus spending package to fund federal agencies for the rest of FY 2025. And it’s something that top GOP appropriators and defense hawks were backing just a short time ago.

“Republicans walked away from a bipartisan effort that we were close to completing. And I think they own that decision,” Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) said.

But senior Republican and Democratic appropriators were in talks for three months. They went nowhere in the end. Democrats wanted to put constraints on how Trump can spend money appropriated by Congress. Republicans rejected that out of hand. Plus, the House is already gone.

Here’s what Warnock said when presented with that reality:

Does that mean helping Republicans pass their CR to avert a shutdown? We’ll see.

2) Maybe Schumer and Senate Democrats will hold the line and block the House-drafted CR. This would push the federal government into a shutdown.

Two Democratic senators who were thought to be in play for cloture — Sens. Mark Warner of Virginia and John Hickenlooper of Colorado — said Wednesday night that they’d be a no on the Republican CR. Hickenlooper went as far as to say he’ll be a no on cloture too. So the field of potential Democratic “yes” votes for cloture is dwindling.

Now remember: OMB has massive leeway in a government shutdown. They decide when exactly a shutdown begins. The full effects wouldn’t be felt until Monday at the earliest.

Yet “lapses in appropriations” can cause lots of pain. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers could be furloughed. White House sources tell us that the Trump administration would make it very painful for Democrats as they decide what agencies and services remain open. Democrats are very aware of this, too.

At some point, Congress would have to reopen the government. Maybe a shutdown would force Republicans to the table. Or alternatively, Democrats may simply have to cave at some point. Some Democrats believe their options to get out of a shutdown would be worse than the House-passed CR.

Trump and Musk could use the shutdown as a pretext for laying off even more federal workers, which is exactly what Democrats are trying to head off.

Democrats also haven’t spelled out what a win would look like for them beyond getting a vote on a 28-day CR that can’t pass.

Senate campaign news: We got a first look at an NRSC memo to donors listing New Hampshire’s Senate race as a toss-up now that Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) is retiring.

— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and Max Cohen

Happening today at 8:30 a.m. ET: Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) and former astronaut and current Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) will join us for a wide-ranging conversation on the news of the day and the continued development of space policy. You can still RSVP here!

THE AIRWAVES

Musk stars in Dem ads as top antagonist

Elon Musk is everywhere at the moment.

The mega billionaire is leading the Trump administration’s DOGE campaign to slash the payroll of the federal government, hawking Teslas to President Donald Trump on the White House lawn and appearing in Democratic ads as the party’s new favorite bogeyman.

In the opening months of Trump’s second term, Democrats are settling on a message – Republicans are looking out for Musk and the mega-rich while ignoring the needs of everyday Americans.

Here’s a look at what Americans are hearing from Democratic ads:

Democratic group House Majority Forward is launching a new Spanish-language attack ad targeting Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas) over potential Medicaid cuts. The radio ad accuses De La Cruz of supporting the budget resolution “to line the pockets of billionaires like Elon Musk and big corporations.”

The radio ad comes weeks after HMF launched a nationwide TV ad campaign taking aim at vulnerable Republicans on the budget resolution. That large-scale messaging push accused GOP lawmakers of voting “to fund massive tax cuts for Elon Musk and billionaires.”

Unions like the American Federation of Teachers are also getting in on the Musk attack act. A recent ad from the group plays footage of Musk wielding a chainsaw on stage at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC).

“The Musk-Trump team is taking a chainsaw to the Department of Education to pay for a tax cut for billionaires,” the ad’s narrator says.

Rolling Sea Action Fund, a Congressional Black Caucus PAC-aligned group, is making Musk a top target too.

“Instead of making things cheaper, Trump has allowed Elon and his billionaire grifter friends to take control of our government,” the ad’s narrator says in a spot, which ran in swing House districts with substantial Black populations. “Trump, Elon and their billionaire friends come first — not you.”

Hill Democrats say they believe the constant focus on Musk will resonate with the electorate.

“Pointing out that Musk is a villain that is plundering taxpayers and corrupting the government is a powerful message because it helps inspire disaffected voters and move independent voters towards our direction,” Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) said.

DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.) says Musk is part of the Democratic message, which she hopes can “broadly” capture how the GOP is governing and highlight DOGE.

“There’s nothing efficient about the Department of Government Efficiency right now, so that’s a piece of [our messaging] too,” DelBene told us.

— Max Cohen and Mica Soellner

NEXT IN SERIES

The Ones to Watch: Advancing with AI

The second segment in our series The Ones to Watch: Advancing with AI, explores how the ever-evolving technology intersects with cybersecurity.

While artificial intelligence is another tool for boosting cybersecurity and detecting threats faster, it has its downsides. AI has allowed bad actors to become more sophisticated in their malicious activity.

To understand more about how policymakers are approaching the issue, we spoke to Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.). Swalwell is the top Democrat on the Homeland Security Committee’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection Subcommittee. We also examined what’s happening within the White House and federal government.

– Mica Soellner

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

Aguilar talks DOGE, Trump and Dem unity

LEESBURG, Va. — House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) joined us on Wednesday for P “Cocktails and Conversations” at the House Democrats’ annual retreat.

Before the interview, James Williams, executive vice president of advocacy, communications and external affairs at Arnold Ventures gave brief remarks. Thank you to Arnold Ventures for partnering with us to make this event possible.

Here are our top takeaways:

– Aguilar said Democrats want to focus their message on uplifting working class voters. The California Democrat said the party will gear their focus to saying Republicans are working for the billionaire class, pointing to Elon Musk for example.

– After House Democrats nearly unanimously voted against a House GOP-led CR, Aguilar said Democrats shouldn’t be blamed for any potential government shutdown. Aguilar noted the CR was a “Republican only effort” and Democratic leadership prefers a bipartisan approach.

– Aguilar challenged the DOGE efforts, arguing that their method to reduce the size of government is flawed. Aguilar, however, added that Democrats are in when it comes to government efficiency, if it’s done so in a “collaborative way.”

– After some House Democrats protested President Donald Trump’s joint address to Congress, Aguilar celebrated the “exuberance” of the caucus. “There should be a role for everyone in their own way to represent the district,” he said.

– Aguilar joked “I’m not running” when asked about the California gubernatorial race. But Aguilar did say he’d endorse former Vice President Kamala Harris if she decides to run and he encouraged her to do so.

In addition to Aguilar, raising a glass with us at the Punchbowl News event were Democratic Reps. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), Steny Hoyer (Md.), Debbie Dingell (Mich.), Jared Huffman (Calif.), Nikki Budzinski (Ill.), Susie Lee (Nev.), Dr. Ami Bera (Calif.), George Whitesides (Calif.), Brad Sherman (Calif.), Ilhan Omar (Minn.), Marc Veasey (Texas), Maxine Waters (Calif.), Nanette Barragán (Calif.), Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Fla.), Wesley Bell (Mo.), Luz Rivas (Calif.), Gabe Amo (R.I.), Sarah McBride (Del.), Melanie Stansbury (N.M.) and Dave Min (Calif.).

Senior staff also joined our event, including Gideon Bragin and Christie Stephenson with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Owen Kilmer with Aguilar and Margaret Mulkerrin with Hoyer.

– Mica Soellner

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