Senate Republicans are in a tough spot on just about everything when it comes to the House GOP’s reconciliation plans — from potential Medicaid cuts to the overall timeline. House Republicans, meanwhile, are only piling on.
The House already won out on the strategy for how to pass President Donald Trump’s agenda through the filibuster-proof reconciliation process, forcing the Senate to work with them on “one big, beautiful bill.”
Now key House members are pushing senators not to meddle too much with their budget resolution — much of which Senate Republican leaders have said will have to change in order to win Senate approval.
But House GOP leaders are showing few signs of moving in the Senate’s direction on the budget resolution. For example, here was House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington’s (R-Texas) message to the Senate on Tuesday: “Do the right, responsible and expeditious thing and just take ours.”
Let’s also acknowledge that this is a clash of personalities, as some House leaders take shots at the Senate’s plans. This isn’t how Senate Majority Leader John Thune operates.
The House’s problem is an unusually razor-thin margin that makes every move difficult and leaves Speaker Mike Johnson needing Trump’s help. Johnson made that point about his margin at Punchbowl News’ The Conference on Tuesday, arguing the House must take the lead on reconciliation.
But Thune has been warning that many elements of the House’s approach simply won’t fly in his chamber — and this is indeed an accurate read of the Senate Republican Conference. Let’s take a look at some of these bicameral flashpoints.
1) The House’s direction for the Energy and Commerce Committee to slash $880 billion — which would largely mean squeezing savings from Medicaid — isn’t seen as a realistic target in the Senate, where some GOP senators have already expressed doubts about that level of cuts and the possible targeting of Medicaid. But if that number is lowered, it would put the House’s $1.5 trillion of total spending cuts out of range.
2) Senate GOP leadership wants to do more on taxes than the House budget resolution allows. Republican leaders want to add a “current policy baseline” to make the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent in the bill. While views in the conference vary, some senators have drawn a red line on the issue.
3) The Senate’s budget would boost Pentagon spending by $150 billion, a big priority for defense hawks. The House’s plan only allows for a $100 billion boost.
Defense hawks are counting on a higher defense number in the reconciliation package in order to make up for the Pentagon shortfall in the stopgap funding bill the Senate could pass this week.
“We’re Republicans and we’re spending below Biden’s number on defense,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) noted. “If we do not pass… at least $150 billion, we will have betrayed the men and women in uniform.”
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Senate Republicans on Tuesday and, according to senators, committed to backing the higher number.
4) The House’s budget raises the debt limit by $4 trillion. A handful of Senate Republicans have said they’d oppose using reconciliation to increase the debt limit.
5) There’s also the timing. Johnson said Tuesday that he wants a bill on Trump’s desk by April or May. Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) pointed to an August recess deadline at Punchbowl News’ The Conference.
The belief that the tax portion would take a while is exactly why Senate Republicans wanted to do two bills in the first place — and why they could resurrect it if Trump gets impatient.
One more note on Thune: We asked the majority leader whether he’s seen signs the House is moving at all in the Senate’s direction given the realities of what can pass both chambers. Thune said he and Johnson both understand that “this is a long, arduous process, but we’ll get there.”
