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March 27, 2023
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THE TOP
Happy Monday morning.
Former President Donald Trump’s possible indictment over hush-money payments to an ex-porn star remains the biggest political story in the country. Trump spoke extensively about the controversy during his first campaign rally Saturday night in Waco, Texas.
The grand jury in Manhattan is expected to meet this week. We’re not going to rehash everything that’s going on here, but whatever happens will have a huge impact on Capitol Hill.
A trio of House Republican committee chairs is continuing to pressure Manhattan D.A. Alvin Bragg over the probe, and Bragg pushed back on Sunday.
Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Oversight and Accountability Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) and House Administration Committee Chair Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) have set a March 31 deadline for Bragg to sit down for a transcribed interview and turn over documents related to the probe. But the D.A.’s responses make that appear very unlikely to happen at this point. So we’ll have to see what the next move by House Republicans is if Bragg misses that deadline, especially if Trump is indicted by then.
There was an enormous amount of other news over the weekend as well: A growing political crisis in Israel; Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to put tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus; a deadly tornado killed at least 26 people in Mississippi on Friday night, leading President Joe Biden to issue a disaster declaration; Speaker Kevin McCarthy declared that the House will take up TikTok-related legislation at some point; and Twitter revealed that a portion of its source code leaked online.
But we’re going to follow the money, as always, and that leads us back to Congress.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Attorney General Merrick Garland, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will lead a parade of Biden administration officials testifying before the House and Senate Appropriations committees over the next few days.
It’s budget request season, so you can hang out committee rooms and pretty much see all the top officials across the executive branch and Pentagon come by on Tuesday and Wednesday. Here’s the committee schedule for the week.
What the Cabinet secretaries, generals and admirals will have to spend next year is anyone’s guess at this point, however. The White House and GOP congressional leaders are nowhere on the FY 2024 budget or, more importantly, raising the debt limit.
There’s no formal default date yet on the $31.4 trillion national debt, with Yellen saying the Treasury Department can pay its bills through early June. CBO estimates that the federal government will run out of money sometime between July and September. It’s not a crisis yet. But as the recent collapse of some important regional U.S. banks has shown, investors remain wary about the state of the economy.
Biden and McCarthy have had one meeting on the issue, with no follow-up in nearly two months. Both sides appear to be happy lobbying potshots at each other over who is more fiscally reckless. We have some news below on what the White House is doing below.
House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) – who confused everyone last week with his “deal sheet” comments and whether he’s drafting a budget resolution – has scheduled a “Fiscal State of the Union” hearing for Wednesday. Arrington hasn’t released any details on what this session is about or who will be testifying. Here are some ominous tweets, though.
Meanwhile, Senate Budget Committee Chair Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) – who has no plans to release his own budget resolution – has scheduled a hearing Wednesday on “the cost of oil dependence in a low-carbon world.” This is an important topic but not one you’d probably expect to see the Senate Budget Committee taking up at this time of year.
As we noted, lawmakers are leaving town on Thursday, with no votes scheduled until April 17. Which means the White House and Congress will have pretty much wasted the first 100 days of the 118th Congress doing nothing on the biggest issue they face this year.
Also: The House will vote this week on H.R. 1, the Lower Energy Costs Act. This is the signature House GOP energy package. It was assembled by Majority Leader Steve Scalise and several Republican committee chairs. As we’ve noted for a while, parts of this package could find their way into any spending plus debt-limit deal. The Rules Committee is meeting today to draft a rule for the package.
– John Bresnahan
Tomorrow: House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) joins Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman for an interview on his priorities as chair of the panel. RSVP here to join us at 9 a.m. ET!
THE SENATE
GOP senators use Iraq AUMF repeal to push unrelated priorities
The Senate locked in a time agreement to pass legislation repealing the Iraq war authorizations by the middle of this week, wrapping up a nearly two-week floor process that will have included around a dozen GOP amendment votes.
Beginning Tuesday, the Senate will vote on as many as six additional Republican-authored amendments to the underlying AUMF bill, some of which have nothing to do with Iraq or war powers in general. All of the amendments require 60 votes to pass, so it’s unlikely any of them will be enacted.
Ukraine: Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) has an amendment that would create an “Office of the Special Inspector General for Ukraine Assistance,” a nod to the Missouri Republican’s opposition to funding Ukraine’s effort to fight off the Russian invasion.
The IG would be charged with reviewing the more than $110 billion in military and non-military assistance that Congress has already appropriated — all of which Hawley and a significant chunk of House and Senate Republicans have opposed.
This amendment in particular will again spotlight the GOP divide over Ukraine, which is intensifying as the war drags on with no end in sight. What’s more, the party’s staunchest Ukraine supporters argue that an IG isn’t necessary because oversight of U.S. funding is already required as part of the aid packages.
Afghanistan: This one won’t divide the GOP that much, but it’s nonetheless unrelated to the Iraq AUMF repeal bill.
Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) has an amendment that would set up a Joint Select Committee on Afghanistan — a bicameral body with an equal partisan split that would investigate the chaotic U.S. withdrawal in August 2021.
We could see this garnering some Democratic votes, too, especially among those senators up for reelection in 2024. It’s widely accepted that the Biden administration botched the withdrawal, so it could be good politics for red-state Democrats to back the amendment.
Pandemic preparedness: Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) has made no secret of his skepticism of world health authorities and the Covid-19 vaccine. Johnson is offering a non-binding “Sense of the Senate” amendment stating that any World Health Assembly agreement on pandemic prevention and preparedness should be considered a treaty.
This would make any deal subject to two-thirds approval from the Senate for ratification. The goal here would be to prevent the United States from signing onto whatever agreement the World Health Assembly releases in the coming months.
Iran: Unlike the previous three amendments, this one is directly relevant to the underlying issue. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) has authored an amendment that would require the Director of National Intelligence to first certify in an assessment to Congress that “repeal will not degrade the effectiveness of United States-led deterrence against Iranian aggression.”
This, of course, has been the dominant theme for Republicans who oppose repealing the Iraq AUMFs. They believe scrapping those 1991 and 2002 authorizations would make it more difficult for the United States to respond to attacks on American forces by Iranian proxies within Iraq. They also worry that repealing the AUMFs would send the wrong signal to adversaries such as Iran.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has an Iran-focused amendment, too. It states that the 2002 Iraq AUMF “is not independently required” to empower the president to use military force against Iran’s affiliates and to “take actions for the purpose of ending Iran’s escalation of attacks on, and threats to, United States interests.”
This issue came into focus late last week when President Joe Biden ordered retaliatory airstrikes on Iran-affiliated groups that had attacked U.S. positions in Syria. A U.S. civilian contractor died in the initial attack.
GOP defense hawks said the incident was further evidence that the Iraq AUMFs should remain on the books in order to deter an emboldened Iran. But pro-repeal lawmakers noted that Biden didn’t need the Iraq AUMFs to launch those counter-strikes on the Iranian proxies. In his official war powers notice to Congress, Biden cited his Article II authority to defend Americans who come under attack abroad.
Lastly, freshman Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) has an amendment that requires Biden to certify to Congress that “Iraq, Israel, and other United States partners and allies in the region have been meaningfully consulted on the ramifications of repeal.”
ICYMI… Phil Washington, Biden’s nominee for FAA administrator, withdrew from consideration this past weekend amid staunch opposition from Republicans and unease from a few Democrats. We scooped last week that Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) had a phone call with Washington that apparently didn’t assuage her concerns about his nomination, and she was prepared to vote against him in the Commerce Committee, effectively dooming the nomination.
In early March, Gigi Sohn withdrew her nomination for the FCC after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said he’d oppose her. And Michael Delaney, Biden’s nominee for the First Circuit Court of Appeals, faces questions over his role as a lawyer in a sexual-assault case.
— Andrew Desiderio
BUDGET, WHERE ART THOU?
House Republicans have no budget. Biden is going to take advantage
You know the saying when life gives you lemons, make lemonade? President Joe Biden is making lemonade.
With House Republicans dragging their feet on releasing an FY 2024 budget proposal, Biden will talk this week about what he sees as the GOP’s budgetary priorities. And because House Republicans haven’t put out their budget yet, Biden can spin it any way he wants.
The president will head to North Carolina Tuesday and he’ll talk about the GOP’s tax proposals. Here’s a fact sheet the White House is passing around. And here’s a statement from Michael Kikukawa, a White House spokesman:
The “term sheet” Kikukawa is referring to is the most recent drama in the House budget process. House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) said the GOP was preparing a “term sheet” of options for their budget. Speaker Kevin McCarthy later said he had no idea what Arrington was talking about. The episode highlighted how the GOP is nowhere on getting its own budget out.
The longer it takes for House Republicans to release their budget – and then pass it – the longer Biden will have the strategic advantage to define the GOP’s positions.
Truth be told, Biden was late with his own budget proposal, so McCarthy and Arrington have an excuse to be tardy with their spending blueprint. But every day that the GOP is still fumbling with their 2024 spending plan is a day where Biden can whack them.
Biden has conditioned negotiations on the debt limit to House Republicans releasing their budget. So, while McCarthy blames Biden for not negotiating, the fact is the ball is in the California Republican’s court.
– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
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THE LEADERS
Our fourth and final profile of The Leaders drops tomorrow! We interviewed Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) about South Carolina’s emerging industries, cannabis reform, and more. Check back here tomorrow for the profile and make sure to catch up on our first three interviews today!
From Big Tech to Bragg, Republicans investigate away
House Republicans continue to chug along on an ambitious oversight agenda that spans from Big Tech to Afghanistan to the Manhattan district attorney’s pursuit of former President Donald Trump’s alleged porn-star payoff.
Subpoena watch: The House Judiciary Committee is continuing its investigation into Big Tech’s content moderation policies. Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft and Meta have begun producing documents in compliance with the March 23 deadline.
But negotiations are still ongoing between the Big Tech companies and the panel, a committee spokesperson told us. The Judiciary Committee is considering holding a document status hearing in the future, and we’re told everything is on the table when it comes to compliance — including a potential contempt resolution.
On the topic of subpoenas and the House Judiciary Committee, the panel has a subcommittee hearing on oversight compliance scheduled for Wednesday, with a focus on the FBI and Department of Education.
Of course, Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) subpoenaed the FBI, DOJ and Department of Education last month for documents on how the agencies handled school board protests. Here are the witnesses for Wednesday’s hearing:
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas) has also threatened to subpoena Secretary of State Antony Blinken if the State Department doesn’t turn over key Afghanistan documents by Monday.
McCaul is seeking a July 2021 internal dissent cable warning of chaos in Afghanistan following a U.S. withdrawal. Blinken has said the State Department needs to ensure these dissent cables remain confidential so administration officials can express opposing viewpoints without fear. Blinken also promised to share an after-action report on the botched withdrawal by mid-April.
Letter deadlines: House Oversight and Accountability Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.), as always, is continuing to probe members of President Joe Biden’s family. Comer is looking to receive documents from an art gallery owner who oversaw sales of Hunter Biden’s artwork.
The Kentucky Republican believes there are ethics issues at play here over the lack of transparency with regards to who is purchasing Hunter Biden’s paintings. The gallery owner’s lawyer has until Monday to produce documents on any communication between the gallery and the White House.
— Max Cohen and Mica Soellner
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