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IN THIS EDITION

The Democrats: A look at how Schumer and Jeffries are performing

How a DOGE vote could help skittish Republicans — and Musk

Fleming makes his pro-Trump case against Cassidy

The Vault: JCT weighs in on the baseline

THE TOP

The Democrats: A look at how Schumer and Jeffries are performing

Happy Friday morning.

Last week, as part of our regular “Leader Look,” we reviewed the performances of Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune. This week, we’re looking at House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Let’s get to it.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries: House Democrats had a tough week – which means Jeffries had a tough week.

Despite pleas for restraint from Jeffries and other top party leaders, roughly a dozen House Democrats held up signs slamming President Donald Trump during his Tuesday address to a joint session of Congress. Some booed and hissed. Even worse, Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) was removed from the chamber after yelling at Trump and refusing to stop. By Thursday, the House censured Green over his behavior, with 10 Democrats crossing the aisle to vote with Republicans on the resolution.

The House Freedom Caucus now wants to strip Green’s committee assignments. And Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) floated a resolution Thursday night demanding retaliation against Democrats who sang “We Shall Overcome” during Green’s censure. Jeffries responded by calling Ogles “a complete and total fraud.” The New York Democrat also slammed Republicans as “malignant clowns.” Yeah, it’s going like that.

Earlier on Thursday, Jeffries and party leaders brought in some of the most vocal rank-and-file Democrats – including Reps. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) and Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) – to berate them for their recent behavior. The members-only meeting was called by Jeffries, we’re told.

Tuesday’s debacle, as well as the ongoing clashes between progressives and moderates inside the House Democratic Caucus, isn’t Jeffries’ fault, of course. But it is his problem. And it shows little sign of cooling off right now.

Dismayed by Trump’s success in appealing to some traditional Democratic constituencies last November, moderates pledged to seek common ground with the incoming president at the start of this Congress. Jeffries and his top lieutenants took a cautious stance.

But Trump’s executive orders and DOGE blitz has infuriated the Democratic base, who have demanded dramatic responses to every Trumpian outrage. The problem for Jeffries is that he’s the House minority leader. No matter how much noise House Democrats make, they’ll always lose if Republicans stick together.

The irony here is that by January 2027, Jeffries could be speaker, which would make him the most powerful Democrat in the country. Jeffries is closer to becoming speaker than Schumer is to being majority leader.

Jeffries faces a key moment next week. Johnson is trying to pass a long-term continuing resolution with only GOP votes to avoid a government shutdown after March 14. Jeffries and Democrats have signaled they have no intention of helping out here. The burden is on Johnson and Republicans to prove they can govern. This isn’t a comfortable position for many House Democrats, who loathe shutdowns, but it’s a test of unity for the caucus.

The normally low-key Jeffries has also dramatically stepped up his public outreach. From ABC’s “Good Morning America” to Stephen A. Smith to Jon Stewart, Jeffries has been working the TV, podcast and online interview circuit.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer: Schumer’s Senate Democrats are showing a lot more unity and cohesion than their colleagues across the Capitol. For one thing, they didn’t exhibit any of the disruptive behavior we saw from House Democrats.

The first few weeks of the 119th Congress were rough for Schumer, full of internal disputes over how to counter Trump and Republicans on the Senate floor. Schumer has acknowledged these challenges.

But in an interview Thursday afternoon, Schumer touted alignment on messaging and strategy among progressives, moderates and outside activist groups. Schumer joined a Zoom call with organizations like Indivisible last week, some of whom were complaining about his early moves in January.

Schumer is zeroing in on potential GOP cuts to Medicaid and Social Security which he said would pay for tax cuts for Trump’s “billionaire club.” The New York Democrat said Democratic efforts will help drive down Trump’s poll numbers.

“We have our strategy. It’s not just a message. It’s things that really appeal to the American people,” Schumer said. “It unifies our caucus completely. Bernie Sanders is happy with it. [John] Fetterman is happy with it. So we’re all united on that. And it’s very good for our activists.”

Senate Democrats still have a difficult 2026 map that’s only gotten even more precarious due to recent retirements. However, Schumer believes that if Trump’s poll numbers fall enough, that “will really change the whole political dynamic not only for 2026.”

Schumer’s more immediate consideration is government funding, with the March 14 deadline just a week away. If the House sends the Senate a long-term CR, this would put Senate Democrats in a tough position. They’d essentially be choosing between a shutdown and a six-month stopgap bill, which Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), the top Democratic appropriator, has said would only enable Elon Musk and DOGE.

“They have the presidency, the House, the Senate,” Schumer said. “It’s their responsibility to fund the government. It has to be done in a bipartisan way.”

We don’t expect Democrats to force a shutdown, but the vote will likely divide the caucus. Yet Schumer insists Democrats are unified “on the major issues and how we get there.”

— John Bresnahan and Andrew Desiderio

THE SENATE

How a DOGE vote could help skittish Republicans — and Musk

A congressional vote to codify DOGE’s spending cuts into law wouldn’t just be a victory for Elon Musk. It could end up being an even bigger win for the Republicans who have expressed unease with DOGE’s massive layoffs across federal agencies.

The renewed effort, led in part by Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), has attracted attention from GOP senators who are particularly vulnerable to the political backlash over these layoffs and the haphazard nature of the DOGE operation.

The process, known as rescission, would allow Hill Republicans to directly address the problems that DOGE is creating for them back home. It would give GOP lawmakers the final say on whether a certain program or initiative should be cut, a key reprieve for the Republicans raising alarms about cuts to essential services.

“We started off good but we’re losing altitude,” Graham said. “Politically, now’s the time to start putting in legislation the accomplishments of DOGE and deal with the problems.”

In a brief interview, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said there’s “a lot of interest” in a rescissions vote within his conference. But Thune noted that it needs to originate from the White House, which needs to “prove they’re real,” referring to the proposed cuts.

Graham told us he spoke with a White House official Wednesday night, just hours after Musk attended a Senate GOP lunch. Graham said “we’re onto something,” but he declined to elaborate.

A win-win? Musk was jumping for joy on Wednesday when he learned during the closed-door lunch that Republicans could vote to codify proposed spending cuts without requiring Democratic votes.

For Musk, this would ensure some level of permanence for the spending cuts and possibly shield DOGE from the myriad of lawsuits challenging its legal authority.

And as Graham alluded to, crafting a rescission package would create an oversight mechanism for DOGE, which is run by young and inexperienced staffers who, for example, errantly cut an Ebola prevention program, as Musk recently admitted.

“We’re all looking for ways for us to do our job,” Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah) said. “I also think it’s important for people who are a little bit confused about [Musk’s] role — to better define whatever his role is.”

Later Thursday, President Donald Trump nodded to some of those concerns by telling his Cabinet officials that they, not Musk, have ultimate decision-making power on layoffs at their departments and agencies. Thune was among those suggesting Musk shouldn’t be overruling Cabinet secretaries.

Drawbacks: By definition, rescissions would reverse funding that has already been appropriated. But such a vote wouldn’t come without risks. And success isn’t guaranteed.

First, it could be a politically difficult vote for vulnerable Republicans. Their Democratic opponents could use a “yes” vote to tie them directly to DOGE. And they’d still have to answer for the programs they vote to cut. Senate and House GOP leaders will have to consider this.

Another risk is that it could create a dispute between the White House and the Hill if GOP leaders try to veto certain proposed rescissions. It also adds yet another tricky task to the Republican leadership’s plate at a time when they’re already facing headwinds with budget reconciliation.

But as Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) noted, approving a rescission package could make it easier to pass a reconciliation bill because it could obviate deficit hawks’ complaints that the bill doesn’t cut enough spending, a key divide between the House and Senate.

The last time a GOP-controlled Senate tried to pass a rescission package, the effort failed because two Republicans voted against it. But that was back in 2018 when Senate Republicans had a smaller majority. Today, they could only lose up to three GOP votes. But with such thin margins in the House, getting near-unanimous support would be exceedingly difficult.

Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine), who voted against that 2018 package, said identifying spending cuts requires “a careful analysis” rather than an “across-the-board approach.”

— Andrew Desiderio

THE SENATE

Fleming makes his pro-Trump case against Cassidy

Former Rep. John Fleming (R-La.) is mounting an aggressive right-wing primary challenge to Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), bashing the incumbent as a “Republican in name only” who’s out of touch with the MAGA movement.

Fleming, a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus who currently serves as the Louisiana state treasurer, wants to hit Cassidy for his bipartisan voting record and his 2021 vote to convict President Donald Trump following the Jan. 6 Capitol attack. Cassidy is just one of three Senate Republicans left who voted to convict Trump.

“Sen. Cassidy gets all the benefits of being a Republican in a Republican state, but yet is doing things that enable Democrats to have their way,” Fleming said in an interview.

Cassidy secured Trump’s endorsement in his 2020 race, but the president has since soured on the Louisiana Republican over his impeachment vote.

As recently as last year, Trump slammed Cassidy as “one of the worst senators” and a “disloyal lightweight.” Yet Cassidy hasn’t become an anti-Trump force and, despite his skepticism over HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., he has voted for all of Trump’s Cabinet nominees.

Fleming, who says he wants to earn Trump’s endorsement, insisted that Cassidy’s vote to convict Trump following Jan. 6 is an “insurmountable” obstacle in a GOP primary.

“Had he been successful along with the other Republicans who voted to convict, Trump would not have been able to run for reelection,” Fleming said.

The four-term House member also slammed Cassidy for supporting the bipartisan infrastructure bill. Cassidy has touted his work negotiating the legislation.

But Fleming said there are parts of the bill that Cassidy hides that support Democrats’ social and green agenda.

“We’re not seeing any broad transition of our infrastructure at all,” Fleming said. “It was sold as one thing and turned out to be something else as a bait-and-switch type of thing.”

Louisiana is conducting closed primaries this cycle, a new statewide development that Fleming thinks will benefit his candidacy.

Some Louisiana Republicans don’t want to touch the campaign at all. Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) ditched his usually chatty demeanor when asked to weigh in on Fleming’s challenge.

“I don’t have anything for you on that. That’s two years from now,” Kennedy told us.

Fleming has also picked up some early support among his former House colleagues. Reps. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), Scott Perry (R-Pa.) and Marlin Stutzman (R-Ind.), three HFC members, have backed him against Cassidy. Of course, none of them are considered to be hugely influential figures in Louisiana politics.

It’s important to note that Cassidy is crushing Fleming in fundraising. Cassidy ended 2024 with more than $6.5 million on hand, while Fleming’s campaign was almost $530,000 in debt and only raised roughly $6,300 in the fourth quarter. A recent Morning Consult poll found that 69% of Louisiana Republicans approve of Cassidy’s job performance.

When asked about Fleming’s challenge against him, Cassidy also shrugged off the reality as “it is what it is.”

“We’re doing everything that we need to do to win decisively,” Cassidy said.

— Mica Soellner and Max Cohen

… AND THERE’S MORE

Job news: Will Reinert, who was the NRCC national press secretary last cycle, is joining Watchtower Strategy as a senior director. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy recently launched the public affairs firm.

Downtown Download. Scale AI, which just signed a big contract with the Pentagon, has hired Atlas Crossing to lobby on “[i]ssues related to artificial intelligence and autonomous aerial platforms.”

– Max Cohen and Jake Sherman

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