Iran, the SAVE America Act and the House GOP retreat

IN THIS EDITION

House GOP to Miami as war threatens economy

Unveiling the 2026 Power List

Hill aides say Hegseth harmed Trump’s foreign policy agenda

Dems: Paxton and Cornyn poll the same

THE TOP

House GOP to Miami as war threatens economy

Happy Monday morning.

The Senate is in this week, the House is out.

House Republicans are in Doral, Fla., at the Trump National Doral for their annual legislative retreat. President Donald Trump will be speaking to House Republicans this evening in, where else, the Donald J. Trump Ballroom at his club.

Speaker Mike Johnson’s Republican Conference retreat will feature a number of conservative pundits, including Scott Jennings and Ben Shapiro. White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair and Chris LaCivita, a top Trump political adviser, will also speak. National Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett, who didn’t get the rose for Federal Reserve chair, will take his spiel from television to Miami. We’ll have coverage from south Florida all week.

Reconciliation 2.0 will be a major topic of conversation during the retreat, as we previewed for you last week. Johnson and House GOP leaders will see whether they can begin coalescing around some policies for a second reconciliation package. House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) will present potential budget cuts, including targeting “waste, fraud and abuse.”

Iran and SAVE Act. We’re opening up the week focusing on Iran and Trump’s long-running effort to end the Senate filibuster.

Seven Americans have now been confirmed as killed during the U.S. war on Iran. Iranian casualties are estimated at more than 1,300, although this hasn’t been independently confirmed.

Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — killed by an Israeli missile strike on the opening day of the war — has been selected as Iran’s new supreme leader. The younger Khamenei isn’t well known outside Iran. But his ascension signals that Iranian leaders have no intention of caving to U.S. or Israeli military pressure.

Israeli strikes on oil depots have turned Tehran into an apocalyptic landscape. Top Senate Democrats are calling for an investigation into whether a U.S. strike tragically killed dozens of Iranian schoolchildren during the opening days of the war.

The war has spread throughout the Middle East, including dueling strikes on water desalination plants, a nightmarish scenario for millions. U.S. forces are fighting in Iraq once again, while hundreds of thousands of civilians have fled the fighting in southern Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah. U.S. diplomats have been ordered out of Saudi Arabia by the State Department following Iranian drone strikes on the embassy complex in Riyadh.

If you’re a Republican, the politics of this conflict have to worry you. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, oil prices have soared to more than $100 per barrel (from just under $70 per barrel 10 days ago.) There’s been a huge spike in gas prices nationally. The Wall Street Journal called it “the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s and threatening to derail the global economy.” The G7 nations — led by France — are eyeing the release of as many as 400 million barrels from their strategic reserves in order to calm the situation. Asian and European markets were getting rocked early Monday.

Trump responded to soaring gas prices this way on Sunday: “Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!”

Meanwhile, Americans will pay a lot more to fill up their SUVs and pickup trucks.

The Senate Armed Services Committee has a closed briefing on Operation Epic Fury on Tuesday at 9:30 a.m. So we’ll get some more information then.

SAVE Act latest. Senate Majority Leader John Thune can’t escape the unrelenting MAGA fervor over the SAVE America Act, the House-passed bill to require photo ID and proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections.

In a Truth Social post Sunday, Trump declared he wouldn’t sign any legislation until that bill reaches his desk. Trump also demanded that several additional provisions be added to the measure — including significant curbs on mail-in ballots, complicating the effort even further.

As we’ve reported, there isn’t enough Senate Republican support to sustain a “talking filibuster,” the mechanism proponents like Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) are urging Thune to back. Lee was calling GOP senators over the weekend in a bid to round up additional votes, but there remained some very strong opposition, we’re told.

Even White House aides are having a difficult time explaining the competing priorities here.

During an appearance on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the Senate should “quickly” confirm Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) as Department of Homeland Security secretary and pass a funding bill to end the DHS shutdown, now in its 23rd day (U.S. airports are heading toward a crisis situation.) Neither of those things can happen if Trump wants the SAVE America Act to be the next order of business via a talking filibuster, which could take weeks or months to execute — if it works.

This storyline continues to be an unmitigated disaster for Senate GOP leaders, who are in a no-win position here. Trump has primed his base to believe that failure is not an option, which is just more evidence that this is all designed to gut the legislative filibuster. Some Senate Republicans are lobbying White House aides behind the scenes, urging them to get Trump to tone down his rhetoric.

Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso — a top Trump ally and SAVE Act supporter — didn’t endorse the talking filibuster during his own Sunday appearance on Fox News.

“That’s one way to do it,” Barrasso said of the talking filibuster and the SAVE Act. “Members are having meetings right now to say what’s the best way that we can actually get this passed.”

A huge week! The Conference, our annual day-long summit, is on Tuesday. The full lineup includes tons of CEOs, members of Congress and key figures in national politics.

New: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer will appear on stage with Punchbowl News Founders Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman. And we just added a live taping of Fly Out Day with Amy Walter of “The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter” and our very own Ally Mutnick.

We’ll put the full lineup in our Tuesday AM edition.

– Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan, Andrew Desiderio and Laura Weiss

NEW EVENT: Join us on Wednesday, March 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET for a conversation with Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.). Punchbowl News Founder Jake Sherman will sit down with Guthrie to discuss the news of the day and electric grid reliability. Afterward, Jim Matheson, CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, will join Jake for a fireside chat. RSVP now!

PUNCHBOWL NEWS CONFERENCE

Unveiling the 2026 Power List

Ahead of the Punchbowl News Conference on Tuesday, we’re unveiling our 2026 Power List! This is our second year highlighting the most influential people from the private sector, Congress and the White House who are shaping the policy and politics in Washington.

The focus of the Power List isn’t on lawmakers and Cabinet secretaries, but rather the key people who help them wield power.

This year’s list is split into three categories: ascenders — some who have been around for a while, some newbies, all on the cusp of enormous power in the next two years; disrupters — those who aren’t afraid to shake things up, and even reach across the aisle, to score big wins; and the establishment — not flashy but these are the staffers who truly keep Capitol Hill and the White House running and policy moving. Here are some selections:

Ascender. Nd Ubezonu, floor director for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Ubezonu works closely with both senior Democratic staffers and top Republicans ahead of big floor votes. If Democrats take back the House, Ubezonu will be a key power center in the new majority as the party decides when to work with President Donald Trump and when to fight.

Disrupter. Catherine Fuchs, chief economic adviser for Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Fuchs is in the middle of the fight to deliver on two of Trump’s top priorities: crypto and affordable housing legislation. If Congress can work things out on either policy — and that’s a big if — Fuchs will be central to the effort.

Establishment. James Blair, White House deputy chief of staff. After serving as political director for Trump’s 2024 campaign, Blair now navigates implementing the president’s legislative priorities while planning his 2026 midterm agenda. Blair has worked overtime to limit defections in Congress during Trump’s second term, despite working with razor-thin Republican majorities in both chambers.

– Robert O’Shaughnessy

Hill aides say Hegseth harmed Trump’s foreign policy agenda

Top Capitol Hill staffers say Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is doing more harm than good when it comes to President Donald Trump’s national security agenda, according to our recent Canvass survey.

Almost three-quarters (72%) of senior Hill aides said Hegseth has harmed President Donald Trump’s foreign policy priorities. Only 9% of respondents said the defense secretary helped Trump’s agenda.

Notably, a majority (52%) of GOP staffers in our survey said Hegseth has harmed Trump’s policy agenda.

The Canvass Capitol Hill survey was conducted Feb. 10 – March 2, mostly ahead of the Iran military operation, in partnership with independent public affairs firm, LSG.

Hegseth has taken a leading role selling the merits of the conflict to the public. He said last week that U.S. forces “have only just begun to fight” in the war. The public view of Hegseth could change depending on the success of the mission in the Middle East.

Secretary woes. Hegseth’s tenure has consisted of controversies and scrutiny at every turn, so it’s no surprise senior staffers are questioning that effect on foreign policy.

The leaked Signal group chat, where top U.S. officials discussed sensitive information about military operations in Yemen, was one of the most scrutinized moments of Hegseth’s time as defense secretary.

The deadly strikes against alleged drug boats in the Caribbean set off another huge furor for Hegseth. These incidents have been the focus of multiple investigations. Despite the debates over the legality of some of Hegseth’s moves, Republicans on Capitol Hill have largely supported Hegseth publicly.

Only 14% of staffers ranked Hegseth in their top three Republicans who have increased their prominence in Trump’s base. Hill aides prioritized other GOP figures such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance.

Want to take part in The Canvass? Our survey provides anonymous monthly insights from top Capitol Hill staffers and K Street leaders on key issues Washington is dealing with. Sign up here if you work on K Street. Click here to sign up if you’re a senior congressional staffer.

— Shania Shelton

LONE STAR STATE

Dems: Paxton and Cornyn poll the same

News: A PPP poll commissioned by Senate Majority PAC found “no meaningful difference in electability” between Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a general election matchup against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico.

It’s notable to us that Senate Democrats are pushing this narrative, given Democrats have spent much of this year praying for Paxton to advance to the general. Conventional wisdom was that the attorney general’s scandals — Paxton was impeached in 2023 and his ex-wife has accused him of adultery — would make him more vulnerable than Cornyn to an upset.

The polling found Talarico leading Cornyn 44%-43% and Talarico leading Paxton 47%-45%. We’ll note these results are within the 4.1% margin of error and there’s a relatively small sample size of 576 Texas voters. The poll was conducted immediately after Tuesday’s primary from March 4-5.

Talarico has consistently said he views Paxton and Cornyn as equally vulnerable to a general election upset.

We don’t normally run polls like this. But PPP, to its credit, was accurate in its polling of the Texas Senate Democratic primary. The last PPP poll before the primary had Talarico leading Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) 48%-42%. Talarico ended up winning the election 52%-46%.

— Max Cohen

AND THERE’S MORE

Staff moves. Paul Johnson, the top GOP staffer on the House Budget Committee, is heading to K Street. Johnson is launching a new lobbying firm, Slipstream Advocacy, and joining the Bennett Group as a partner.

Johnson has been acting staff director for House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) since last summer and previously worked for several Utah Republicans, including Rep. Blake Moore.

Endorsement watch. Pastor Frederick Haynes III, the Democratic nominee to fill Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s (D-Texas) seat, is endorsing former Rep. Colin Allred’s (D-Texas) comeback bid.

Allred is in a primary runoff with Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas) for a neighboring North Texas district.

— Laura Weiss and Ally Mutnick

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