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April 22, 2025
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Trump administration readies ‘X date’ for debt limit
Happy Tuesday morning.
News: The Treasury Department next week will give Congress its estimate for when the federal government exhausts its ability to borrow money, according to multiple sources close to the issue.
Most estimates for the date when the federal government will reach its borrowing limit — known as the “X date” — peg it at some point this summer or early fall. But Treasury is expected to give its most updated estimate next week as April tax receipts come in.
This update will be critical. Republicans have included a debt limit increase in their reconciliation package. The House has a $4 trillion boost while the Senate set it at $5 trillion. GOP congressional leaders would like to lift the borrowing cap as part of the reconciliation package instead of trying to pass a standalone bill, which would necessitate negotiating with Democrats. President Donald Trump wants this too. It would allow the federal government to keep borrowing money past the 2026 midterm elections.
But an earlier “X-date” would put additional pressure on House and Senate Republicans to pass their reconciliation package more quickly.
The initial goal, as stated by Speaker Mike Johnson, was to get the reconciliation package through the House and Senate and to Trump’s desk by Memorial Day.
Privately, House Republican leadership maintains that aggressive timetable. The GOP leadership is asking committees involved in reconciliation to meet an extremely rapid markup schedule to keep the Memorial Day goal line in sight.
Several top GOP lawmakers and aides said the House may be able to pass the package by the end of May. Yet it’s unlikely to make it through both chambers in that timeframe. Sources in the House GOP leadership say they view the July 4 recess or the August break as true deadlines for reconciliation.
House and Senate Republican leaders kicked almost every significant decision about the reconciliation package down the line when they crafted their compromise budget resolution. Assembling the votes for a massive reconciliation package with spending cuts — potentially to programs like Medicaid and SNAP — and a multi-trillion dollar tax package is no simple task.
For its part, the Senate has little incentive to get the bill done by Memorial Day unless the “X date” is looming. Senate GOP leaders have signaled throughout the reconciliation process that they believed working out a tax and spending cut bill would take more time.
To that end, Republican senators have never viewed the Memorial Day timeline as a realistic goal. Some have floated later targets, including getting the bill to Trump’s desk by the August recess. This is what fueled Senate Republicans’ desire for a two-part reconciliation process.
Also: The late Pope Francis’ funeral will be Saturday. Trump said he and First Lady Melania Trump will attend.
– Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and Laura Weiss
Next week: Join Punchbowl News Founder and CEO Anna Palmer for a conversation with Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Fla.) on Tuesday, April 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET. They’ll discuss the news of the day and how the country is advancing with artificial intelligence. There’s still time to RSVP!
The Vault: Can the U.S. economy survive Trump vs. Powell?
The president of the United States hasn’t grown tired of using Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell as a punching bag. But financial markets tell a different story. And it’s a bad one.
President Donald Trump continued his streak of lambasting the world’s most important central banker on Monday. Trump called for “preemptive” rate cuts, labeled Powell a “major loser” and even suggested that the Federal Reserve cut rates in September “in order to help Sleepy Joe Biden, later Kamala, get elected.”
That last bit is unfortunate, seeing as Powell and just about everybody else associated with the Fed spent much of the past year disputing the idea that the U.S. central bank ever makes monetary policy decisions based on politics, or even the timing of an upcoming election.
One group that has been notably silent: Hill Republicans. Most have supported keeping Powell in the job, but try not to get involved in the back and forth on Trump’s firing threats. That may be more difficult when lawmakers return to Washington next week.
Market mayhem: Trump fired off that post Monday just after markets opened. The trading day that followed was a slog for investors. That had as much to do with Trump’s latest barrage as with White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett’s suggestion on Friday that the president was probing Powell’s removal. The S&P 500, Nasdaq composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average all fell by more than 2%.
Any Trump move to fire Powell wouldn’t be a one-and-done decision. The Fed chair has made clear he doesn’t believe Trump has the authority to fire him or other Fed officials serving on the Federal Open Market Committee. This would all end up in court.
But the market’s swoon makes clear that investors won’t wait – and aren’t waiting – for the Supreme Court to declare whether the White House controls interest rates. The “Sell America” trade is in full force as the dollar loses strength, Treasury yields rise and stocks continue to be routed.
Stock market volatility is rarely the result of one factor. Many headlines on Monday attributed the latest downward slide to Trump’s persistent, gradually escalating threats to Powell – which is really a proxy for how worried investors are about the loss of independent monetary policy in the United States.
But the other side of the sell-off is the trade war, Trump’s tariff approach and increasingly uncertain end game.
In that sense, the market is responding to one story — Trump. We imagine that’s just how the president likes it.
– Brendan Pedersen
THE SENATE MAP
Stevens launches Michigan Senate run
News: Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) is running for Michigan’s open Senate seat, joining a crowded primary in a must-win battleground state for Democrats in 2026.
The 41-year-old Stevens flipped a GOP-held House seat in 2018 and has emerged as a center-left voice in D.C. who’s focused on the automotive industry and other Michigan issues.
In a campaign launch video, Stevens highlights her role working as a top aide on former President Barack Obama’s auto rescue team. Stevens’ ad plays a rally clip of Obama praising the Democrat as a “critical part of my team that helped the American auto industry come roaring back.”
Stevens also criticized President Donald Trump’s “chaos and reckless tariffs.”
“Donald Trump says he ‘couldn’t care less’ if auto prices rise,” Stevens says. “Well, as someone who spent my time in Congress fighting for Michigan jobs, Michigan families, and Michigan workers, I couldn’t care more.” The tone is noteworthy since Trump carried Michigan in November and Stevens is coming out of the gate slamming him.
Democrats who won in tough districts have long called on the party to focus more on pocketbook issues. It’s a strategy Stevens is applying, arguing in her campaign launch that while Michiganders are “feeling the hit of higher prices,” Trump only brings “more chaos.”
Stevens’ Democratic primary opponents are state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, a rising star who’s trying to claim the political outsider lane, and former health official Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive who’s won the endorsement of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
Stevens has experience winning competitive primary races. In 2022, redistricting forced Stevens to face off against her House Democratic colleague Andy Levin in a primary. Stevens beat Levin, a progressive who ran to her left, by 20 points.
In a preview of what could become an expensive Senate primary, AIPAC’s super PAC, the United Democracy Project, spent heavily to boost Stevens. UDP could take a special interest in this race given El-Sayed is a prominent critic of Israel.
Republicans are already consolidating around their unsuccessful 2024 candidate, Mike Rogers. The GOP is hoping Rogers will have more success in the open contest next year following Sen. Gary Peters’ (D-Mich.) retirement.
— Max Cohen
PRESENTED BY BETTER MEDICARE ALLIANCE
Over 34 million Americans depend on Medicare Advantage for affordable health coverage.
PEACH STATE POLITICS
Young Dem candidate eyes David Scott ouster
Everton Blair is joining an increasingly growing field of primary challengers hoping to oust 79-year-old veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.).
Blair, 32, said he launched his campaign after becoming frustrated by the Democratic Party’s response to President Donald Trump’s return to office and full GOP control of Washington.
“It’s time for a clean slate, and we need a new bench if we’re going to really rise to the occasion,” Blair told us in an interview. “Folks are just kind of doing more of the same and I don’t think we can stand for that anymore.”
Blair is running on his public service experience, particularly around education. He was the youngest member and first person of color to be elected to the Gwinnett County Board of Education in 2018. Blair served as board chair during the COVID pandemic.
Blair also served as a White House fellow under President Barack Obama with a focus on expanding educational opportunities for Black Americans. Blair has a PhD in education from Harvard and a master’s degree from Stanford University.
Scott has faced a slew of primary challengers in the past. In 2024, Scott beat six challengers to advance to the general election. Scott is currently in his 12th term representing Georgia’s 13th District.
But Blair said Scott is uniquely vulnerable this cycle as he faces a new swath of challengers and the district has shifted to include more of Gwinnett County, where Blair served.
Scott has also been under heavy scrutiny for his health issues and age. Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) defeated Scott for the top spot on the House Agriculture Committee, primarily centering her race on health concerns. And Scott missed weeks of votes last year due to treatment for back issues.
“Some of his vulnerabilities [are] around his age and and his missing votes due to illness,” Blair said. “At a certain point, you just have to be able to do the job, and there are plenty of people who can do this job better.”
Scott’s campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment. Scott hasn’t announced yet whether he’s running for reelection.
Scott is facing at least three other newcomer challengers in addition to Blair. Jonathan Bonner, a local party organizer, Army veteran Simeon Nunnally and Georgia State Sen. Emanuel Jones have announced their campaigns.
– Mica Soellner
DOWNTOWN DOWNLOAD
Ballard brings in $14M in Q1. Plus, McConnell’s former COS joins Brunswick
Ballard Partners, the firm that boasts its close ties to the Trump administration, brought in $14 million in lobbying revenue in the first quarter of 2025, more than twice what it brought in during the fourth quarter of 2024, when it notched $6.2 million in revenue. It’s $10 million more than the $4.3 million Ballard earned in the first quarter of 2024.
Since President Donald Trump took office, Ballard has signed more than 120 new clients, including Accenture, Axel Springer, Blue Origin, BMW of North America, Chevron, JPMorgan Chase, the NFL, Netflix, Palantir, United Airlines and the Walt Disney Company.
More news. Sharon Soderstrom, the longtime chief of staff to former Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, is joining Brunswick Group as a senior adviser.
Soderstrom is a Senate veteran in every sense of the word. She spent four decades working in the Senate and was at McConnell’s side for all of the most pivotal moments of the last 15 years, ranging from Supreme Court confirmations to Jan. 6 and major foreign policy issues.
A new association head: Drew Maloney will be the new president of EEI, the trade group that represents U.S. investor-owned electric companies. Maloney was CEO of the American Investment Council.
David Urban, a lobbyist with close ties to the Trump administration, has signed Booz Allen Hamilton, Lockheed Martin, Rivian Automotive and 7-Eleven as clients.
Also: The Alpine Group, a bipartisan lobbying firm, is opening a new office in Dallas. Barry Brown, the firm’s senior vice president, has deep roots in the Lone Star State and will be key in the Texas operation.
The Campaign: Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R) and Rep. Jared Golden (D) are the targets of a new ad opposing the repeal of hundreds of billions of dollars in clean energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act.
The Maine Labor Climate Council, a coalition of unions in the state, is behind the spot. It features a group of workers talking about the GOP plans to claw back IRA credits. They say politicians’ attempt to slash the subsidies could “kill thousands of good-paying Maine jobs” to give tax cuts to the rich.
The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC is endorsing Adelita Grijalva in Arizona’s 7th District.
— Andrew Desiderio, Laura Weiss and Jake Sherman
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