The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

What’s next on Ukraine-Israel? Plus, McConnell redeemed

House GOP conservatives galvanize against Gonzales

What we’re watching in the Pennsylvania primary

Small business pushes ahead with AI as Congress mulls legislation

THE TOP

What’s next on Ukraine-Israel? Plus, McConnell redeemed

Happy Tuesday morning.

Latest on foreign aid: The Senate is on track to pass the House’s $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan as soon as this afternoon, sending the long-stalled measure to President Joe Biden’s desk.

Senators have two roll-call votes at around 1 p.m. The first is on a GOP procedural motion, while the second would overcome a bipartisan filibuster and set up final passage by Wednesday night at the latest.

Of course, the Senate being the Senate, it’s unclear when exactly the bill will pass. But with each senator limited to just one hour of remarks after today’s procedural votes, it’s likely that those who oppose the measure won’t be able to drag this out much later than tonight.

As we wrote on Monday, there are ongoing talks between Senate leaders about possible amendment votes and procedural motions. These discussions could prompt a unanimous-consent agreement to vote on the final passage this afternoon. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who opposes sending some military weapons to Israel, is among those demanding “a chance to debate and vote on the key components” of the package.

However, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer doesn’t have much of an incentive to engage with these demands given the fact that opponents are limited to just an hour each on the floor.

The McConnell legacy: We wrote in the Monday AM edition about how Biden can be considered the biggest winner of the 118th Congress so far.

But it isn’t just Biden scoring a win on the foreign aid bill. The same can be said for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, whose persistence on Ukraine is about to finally pay off when the Senate clears the House bill.

For more than two years now, McConnell has been the loudest and most consistent Ukraine backer in Congress, frequently calling out his own party’s drift away from its traditional hawkishness toward isolationism.

Of course, it took much longer than McConnell would have liked to enact this package. McConnell took repeated arrows from his right flank along the way, and he suffered multiple setbacks — including being overruled by his conference at the first government funding deadline in September.

A bipartisan border security proposal that McConnell championed as key to unlocking Ukraine funding also collapsed amid opposition from former President Donald Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson.

McConnell, however, worked with Senate Democrats and the White House to pass a $95 billion Ukraine-Israel-Taiwan package. McConnell afterward announced he wouldn’t be running for GOP leader again, setting off a succession fight.

Following two months of delay, Johnson — under intense pressure from McConnell, the White House and many of his own House GOP colleagues — reversed course and embraced more than $60 billion in Ukraine funding. The House cleared the measure with a big bipartisan vote on Saturday.

But even then, a majority of House Republicans opposed the Ukraine aid, which was at the center of the package.

And while this has become a major moment for McConnell, it’s still unclear whether a majority of the Senate GOP Conference will vote for the House measure.

In February, the Senate’s version got 22 GOP votes, just under half of the 49-member conference. This time around, Senate GOP leadership aides think several additional votes could be in play. If the Republican “yes” votes total 25 or more, expect to hear some chest-thumping from GOP leaders.

A win’s a win: The 82-year-old McConnell is an old-school Reagan Republican whose pro-NATO and anti-Russia views have been a hallmark of his decades-long Senate career. McConnell has made it his mission to see that the more populist, Trump-aligned view doesn’t win out in his party.

You saw this divide on stark display over the weekend when Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) went after Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) for his opposition to Ukraine aid. And it will continue to be a major flashpoint for Republicans this fall as Trump pushes his “America First” agenda.

To Vance, the success of this particular package belies the growing number of Republicans bucking McConnell’s view. Vance himself replaced Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), a staunch Ukraine supporter and McConnell ally.

“There’s no doubt we’re winning the argument,” Vance told us Monday. “Our voters want us to put America first. And we’re seeing a growing number of Republican senators who think Ukraine has nothing to do with that.”

Yet McConnell won this round by playing the long game. McConnell embraced his party’s demands for border security in exchange for foreign aid, waiting patiently as Senate and White House negotiators forged a compromise.

McConnell made the case to GOP senators that this was the time — not with Trump in office — to pass meaningful border restrictions. Democrats were prepared to accept many of the GOP’s border demands because they so badly wanted to pass more Ukraine aid. McConnell saw an opportunity. But few listened to him.

The end result was that Republicans got little on border security, and Biden got exactly what he asked for on foreign aid.

— Andrew Desiderio

Next week! Join us on Tuesday, April 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET for a conversation with Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) as a part of our series, The AI Impact. Punchbowl News Founder and CEO Anna Palmer will sit down with Rounds to discuss the news of the day and the role AI plays across different industries. Afterward, Kent Walker, President of Global Affairs at Google, will join Anna for a fireside chat about what it will take to unlock AI’s potential. RSVP now.

PRIMARY WATCH

House GOP conservatives galvanize against Gonzales

Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) is making more enemies ahead of his primary runoff next month against conservative social media influencer Brandon Herrera.

Hardline House GOP conservatives tell us they’re feeling a renewed sense of motivation to go after Gonzales after he called out Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good (R-Va.) on CNN this weekend. Gonzales referred to the two men as “scumbags” and bashed Good in particular for supporting Herrera, who he called a “neo-Nazi.”

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) is now planning to endorse Herrera and donate to his campaign. Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) said he’s considering doing so as well.

This comes just a day after Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) publicly said he’d back Herrera for Texas’s 23rd District following Gonzales’ criticism of his colleagues. Crane tweeted that Gonzales is a “complete and total RINO.”

Gaetz and Good have already endorsed Herrera. Gaetz, who has a close relationship with Herrera, held a rally for him in March.

Herrera told us that he was “honored” to receive Crane’s endorsement and that Gonzales’ aggressive rhetoric against conservatives will only help fuel his campaign. He added:

Gonzales’ campaign declined to comment.

Of course, Gonzales has been at odds with the party’s right flank for a while, splitting with conservatives on several high-profile issues. Gonzales backed a bipartisan gun control bill and supported federal protections for same-sex marriages. Some of those stances prompted Gonzales to be censured by the Texas Republican Party.

Gonzales also was a major opponent of HFC Policy Chair Chip Roy’s (R-Texas) hardline immigration proposals, which he called “un-Christian.”

And Gonzales helped block House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan’s (R-Ohio) bid for speaker last year. Jordan was conservatives’ top choice to succeed former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Herrera said he’s planning another event with Gaetz ahead of the May 28 runoff election.

Herrera picked up about 24% of the vote in the March primary, which featured three other challengers to Gonzales. Gonzales received just over 45% of the vote, but he needed to clear 50% to avoid a runoff.

Herrera pointed to the support received by Gonzales’ other challengers as giving him a chance to win the runoff.

“We have incredible momentum,” Herrera claimed. “We were an underdog and only got a quarter of the vote, but everybody that voted for the other candidates were voting against Tony.”

We’ll note that Gonzales still has a hefty fundraising advantage over Herrera. By the end of March, Gonzales had a whopping $1.5 million of cash on hand, compared to Herrera who had a little over $300,000.

Gonzales will also get a boost from Speaker Mike Johnson at a lunchtime fundraiser today. We scooped Johnson’s appearance in Monday’s PM edition.

Also: Adam Morgan, who is running against Rep. William Timmons (R-S.C.), is expected to have raised $400,000 this cycle by the end of this week.

Gaetz will campaign for Morgan in Greenville tomorrow at 6:30 p.m. Morgan will also hold an event with former Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) and Glenn Beck this week.

— Mica Soellner

THE CAMPAIGN

What we’re watching in the Pennsylvania primary

Voters in Pennsylvania head to the polls today to choose their candidates in several closely watched primary contests. Here’s what we’re keeping an eye on:

PA-10: Which Democrat will take on Scott Perry?

Democrats are fixated on unseating former Freedom Caucus Chair Scott Perry (R-Pa.). It’s a rare seat that’s both competitive and features a favored punching bag of the left. The two main contenders are former news anchor Janelle Stelson and Mike O’Brien, a retired Marine officer.

Stelson has the backing of the New Dem Coalition’s campaign arm and has gotten some early donations from Reps. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) and Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.). We reported these details on Monday.

Meanwhile, O’Brien is endorsed by Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) and former Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pa.).

This is the first cycle Democrats really believe they have a chance at defeating Perry due to the political climate and his fundraising vulnerabilities. We’ll note though that Perry has improved his margins in every general election since 2018. This district is R+4.

PA-12: Can Summer Lee survive a pro-Israel challenge?

Freshman Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.), a new addition to the Squad, attracted a center-left challenge from Bhavini Patel in Pennsylvania’s 12th District.

Lee’s opposition to Israel funding and connections with antisemitic speakers have angered pro-Israel members of her Pittsburgh-area district. Patel is benefiting from spending from pro-Israel donors, but Lee has slammed her opponent for receiving support from PACs linked to GOP mega-donors.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) campaigned for Lee in Pittsburgh over the weekend.

PA-01: Does a far-right challenger have any chance against Brian Fitzpatrick?

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) is facing conservative activist Mark Houck, who we previously wrote about here.

Houck has taken a hardline stance on abortion and has accused Fitzpatrick of not being conservative enough for Republican voters.

Houck has name-dropped several House conservatives as having supported him, including then-Rep. Mike Johnson, House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Perry.

But Houck walked back some of those claims after several members said they had only limited conversations with the candidate.

The winner of the GOP primary will go on to face Democrat Ashley Ehasz, a U.S. Army veteran who lost to Fitzpatrick by about 10 points last cycle.

The Cook Political Report has Pennsylvania’s 1st District’s PVI as being even, which would give Ehasz a huge advantage in the general if Houck wins.

We’ll note Fitzpatrick has a hefty fundraising advantage, and he just got a boost from the Congressional Leadership Fund, too.

— Mica Soellner and Max Cohen

THE AI IMPACT

Small business pushes ahead with AI as Congress mulls legislation

The latest segment in our series, The AI Impact, launched today. This time, we’re looking into what artificial intelligence means for small businesses. This series is presented by Google.

For small entrepreneurs, AI can mean big things: managing finances, conducting research, automating marketing strategies and significantly reducing administrative tasks.

However, Congress is a step behind in legislating on AI for small businesses and other industries. The challenge for lawmakers is to devise an appropriate legislative approach that includes the necessary guardrails to AI without stifling innovation.

The Biden administration is also mulling ways it can regulate AI for small businesses in a productive way. We spoke with Isabel Guzman, administrator of the Small Business Administration, about her agency’s efforts to help small businesses utilize AI appropriately.

This segment on small business builds on our continuing reporting on how AI is changing the way the government, industry, the scientific world and nonprofits conduct their most important tasks. We’ve previously reported on AI’s impact on cybersecurity and how the technology is transforming health care and scientific discovery.

Check out the full project here.

… AND THERE’S MORE

News: New Dems raised just under $1.6 million for the New Democrat Coalition Action Fund, New Dem members and endorsed candidates.

Downtown Download: Apollo, the private equity giant, has hired Avenue Solutions to lobby on health care. The Iraqi embassy in D.C. has hired Butzel Long to educate Congress about Iraq.

— Jake Sherman

MOMENTS

CLIPS