The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

The Durbin chain reaction

GOP gets pummeled on Medicaid ads

The Vault: Hill talks Fed and Trump, plus FinServ targets CFPB, PCAOB for savings

Google critics urge Hill to question firm’s China ties

ActBlue warns about Trump executive order targeting them

THE TOP

The Durbin chain reaction

Happy Thursday morning.

Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin’s long-anticipated announcement that he won’t seek reelection in 2026 has instantly kicked off three high-stakes Democratic succession fights, including a proxy race for who could ultimately become the Democratic leader.

In deep-blue Illinois, the Democratic primary for the Senate seat Durbin is vacating is widely expected to decide who wins the general election. This will be a heavily contested race with multiple House Democrats likely to jump in. More on that below.

There’s also the top Democratic spot on the Senate Judiciary Committee, which Durbin currently holds. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) would be the leading candidate to replace him there.

But the biggest job Durbin will hand off is his role as the No. 2 Senate Democrat. Durbin has held this position since 2005, making him the longest-serving whip in Senate history.

The whip list: Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) is considered the frontrunner to succeed Durbin and has long signaled his interest in the job. Schatz began making calls to his Democratic colleagues about the whip race shortly after Durbin’s announcement on Wednesday, according to senators who spoke with the Hawaii Democrat.

Schatz’s pitch, according to people who have spoken with him, is twofold — that 1) he’s already chief deputy whip, and 2) he’ll seek to utilize the talents of senators across the caucus on policy and messaging decisions.

However, Senate Democrats say it’ll likely be a contested race. We’re still 19 months out from any leadership elections. A lot can change. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) has privately expressed interest in running for the position, too, per multiple sources.

Beyond Schatz and Klobuchar, other Democrats to watch are Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) — although he may be more focused on a White House bid — and Cory Booker (D-N.J.). But other aspirants could emerge.

The race to succeed Durbin isn’t happening in a vacuum either. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is coming off the most difficult stretch of his tenure as party leader. There’s increasing chatter about what will happen in 2028, when Schumer is up for reelection. Schumer will be 77 by that time and will have been in charge of the Senate Democratic Caucus for a dozen years.

Several Democrats tell us that regardless of whether Schumer runs again, they’re viewing next year’s whip race as a proxy for who should lead their caucus once the New York Democrat retires.

How they stack up: Schatz, 52, has moved up the leadership ranks since being appointed to the Senate in 2012 to replace the iconic Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii). Schatz has good relationships across the caucus and is seen as an effective messenger. But the question Schatz faces is whether that will be enough to ultimately become the Democratic whip — and potentially the leader.

Progressives slammed Schatz over his vote for the CR last month. As we noted, it was at least partially an effort by Schatz to demonstrate leadership qualities, showing he’s willing to take unpopular votes and shield his more vulnerable colleagues from any internal Democratic backlash.

With a seat on the Appropriations Committee — like Durbin — Schatz has helped steer billions of dollars in federal aid back home to Hawaii, including following the devastating Maui wildfires in August 2023.

The 64-year-old Klobuchar was first elected to the Senate in 2006. Klobuchar ran for president in 2020 but dropped out just before the Super Tuesday primaries and endorsed Joe Biden.

The first woman senator in Minnesota history, Klobuchar is the ranking Democrat on the Agriculture Committee. She’s also on the Judiciary Committee, where she has pushed antitrust legislation aimed at Big Tech companies.

Klobuchar is a member of the Democratic leadership currently, serving as chair of the Democratic Steering and Policy Committee, the No. 3 position.

What’s next in Illinois: As we reported, ambitious Illinois Democrats have already been laying the groundwork for Senate campaigns well before Durbin announced his retirement.

The main contenders to succeed Durbin are Illinois Democratic Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi, Lauren Underwood and Robin Kelly, along with Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton.

An early poll of the field, commissioned by a pro-Underwood group, found Underwood and Krishnamoorthi leading the primary contest. But no one has officially jumped in yet, and it’s important to caution how early it is in the 2026 campaign cycle.

Krishnamoorthi’s gigantic war chest — he ended the quarter with $19 million on hand — makes him a potentially formidable candidate, while Underwood’s rapid rise in Democratic leadership is a strength. Stratton has reportedly been telling allies she enjoys Gov. JB Pritzker’s support.

Georgia Senate news: Majority Forward, the Senate Majority PAC allied organization, is launching a high-six-figure statewide ad buy on streaming and digital to boost vulnerable Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.). The ads hail Ossoff’s work on seniors’ issues, highlighting prescription drug pricing reform and his effort to stop Social Security office closures.

— Andrew Desiderio, Max Cohen and John Bresnahan

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THE AIRWAVES

GOP gets pummeled on Medicaid ads

Over recess, we like to look at what’s playing out across the country’s airwaves. On the topic of Medicaid — the hot-button issue of the incipient 2026 cycle — Democrats are already hammering Republicans.

Per an AdImpact analysis, just one Republican is directly pushing back on Medicaid attacks on television amid an onslaught of ads warning of the devastating impacts of cuts.

The rest of the ads that mention Medicaid come from groups pressuring lawmakers to protect the program. The campaign comes as Republicans prepare to take the next step in reconciliation, with significant cuts to Medicaid on the table.

Republicans know the issue could prove politically explosive. As we scooped last week, a group of a dozen vulnerable GOP incumbents wrote to House Republican leadership vowing to oppose a bill that “includes any reduction in Medicaid coverage for vulnerable populations.”

For ad-makers, the reconciliation outline provides real fodder for effective TV messaging.

What’s on the air: In Washington’s 4th District, Save My Care is running ads demanding that Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) “stop these cuts to Medicaid.”

The ad warns that if Congress cuts Medicaid, “over 293,000 of us in our community could have our healthcare ripped away… veterans, seniors, kids with disabilities, everyday working people.”

Save My Care is part of a broader Democratic blitz worth up to $10 million, we’re told.

This messaging also comes on the heels of a nationwide ad campaign from Democratic group House Majority Forward that went after at-risk Republican incumbents for supporting the GOP budget resolution.

Yet the ad spending goes beyond just the national super PACs.

In California, unions like AFSCME and IFPTE are running ad campaigns urging House members to save the state’s Medicaid-funded rural hospitals.

Here’s an example of one of the ads targeting vulnerable Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.). Other at-risk GOP members included in the ad buy are California Reps. Kevin Kiley and David Valadao.

Another major flashpoint of the Medicaid ad wars is playing out in New York’s 1st District, the purplish seat represented by Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.), who isn’t on the DCCC target list.

Earlier this year, a nursing home advocacy organization ran an ad informing viewers that “Washington is threatening drastic cuts to Medicaid funding for nursing homes.”

Weeks later, LaLota cut a direct-to-camera franked ad — paid for by taxpayer funds — to blast the health care-related attacks.

“I’ve been fighting to protect Medicaid, getting those without legal immigration status off the rolls, requiring work for able-bodied adults and eliminating waste, fraud and abuse,” LaLota says in the spot.

GOP countermessage: The “waste, fraud and abuse” line is similar to Republican messaging we’ve seen from some center-right groups to give backup to vulnerable GOP members.

In March, the Republican Main Street Partnership launched a campaign that thanked Reps. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.), Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) and Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.) for fighting fraud in Medicare and Medicaid.

Just like LaLota’s response, Republican groups are attempting to reorient the narrative around getting rid of government abuse without directly mentioning spending cuts.

— Max Cohen

Google critics urge Hill to question firm’s China ties

A group of Big Tech critics is using the China card to drum up interest on the Hill for taking a tougher stance on Google. It’s also urging lawmakers to dismiss the search engine giant’s warnings that breaking it up could be bad for U.S. national security.

In a letter to Hill offices this week, The Tech Oversight Project said Congress wasn’t being nearly hard enough on Google even as antitrust enforcers are in court trying to break up the company. The group has worked on several campaigns to rein in major digital firms.

While The Tech Oversight project lists several benefits to the economy that would result from breaking up Google, it cites alleged business ties with the Chinese Communist Party as a reason to heavily scrutinize the company.

“Though Google does not offer its search engine or app store in China, it still maintains an advertising business aimed at providing CCP-connected companies [with] sensitive data on people around the world,” according to a letter obtained by Punchbowl News.

Google is having none of the group’s allegations, which it harshly criticized.

“This is a blatant misrepresentation,” Google spokesperson Julie McAlister said of the letter. McAlister said Google doesn’t sell users’ data or “share data about individual Americans in bid requests to Chinese companies.”

“Our core products – Google Search, Play, Workspace, YouTube and others – are not available in China,” she added.

The Tech Oversight Project also urged lawmakers to raise questions about Google’s compliance with laws on international data brokers and to seek information on any potential sharing of technology with China. In addition, the group suggested advancing a bill to break up the company’s digital ads business.

— Ben Brody

… AND THERE’S MORE

ActBlue warns about Trump executive order targeting them

News: Democratic fundraising giant ActBlue is warning that President Donald Trump is preparing to target the group via executive order, although what steps the administration will take are still unclear.

ActBlue CEO and President Regina Wallace-Jones sent an email to Democrats on Wednesday, noting that rumors were rampant that Trump was about to issue an executive order on the organization that afternoon. That didn’t happen, but Wallace-Jones said the threat of a potential federal criminal investigation is already having an impact on ActBlue:

You can read the full email here.

House Republicans have been investigating ActBlue for several months, including interviewing two ActBlue employees over allegations that the organization doesn’t do enough to prevent potentially fraudulent donations, including by foreign sources. ActBlue has strongly denied any wrongdoing or improper behavior.

Democrats warn that Trump and Hill Republicans are looking to choke off the hugely successful Democratic fundraising operation. ActBlue says it raised $400 million in the first three months of 2025 alone.

Reconciliation roundup: House Republicans are aiming to spend $150 billion on new defense funding in their reconciliation bill, according to multiple people with knowledge of the process.

The spending plan is a win for GOP defense hawks, who were alarmed when the House initially set a lower target for Pentagon spending. Some Republicans have been counting on higher funding levels in the reconciliation package to make up for a shortfall for the Defense Department in the CR that passed in March.

The House Armed Services Committee is planning to mark up its piece of the GOP’s bill next week, as we scooped. And House Energy and Commerce Committee Republicans will meet on Monday as the panel works toward a May 7 markup. The panel is under pressure from moderates who don’t want to see deep cuts to Medicaid and deficit hawks who are demanding big spending cuts.

— Laura Weiss, Jake Sherman, Samantha Handler, Heather Caygle and John Bresnahan

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