Can House Republicans get some momentum back?

IN THIS EDITION

Johnson’s week of risk and opportunity

Fitzpatrick cool to Reconciliation 3.0

GOP moderates reconciliation dilemma

Sherrod Brown’s big April

THE TOP

Johnson’s week of risk and opportunity

Happy Friday morning.

It’s very clear — House Republicans have been in a rut.

Speaker Mike Johnson twice failed in humiliating fashion to pass an extension of FISA, the controversial intelligence surveillance law. Next week, Johnson and the House GOP will see if the third time is a charm.

Democrats muscled through a high-stakes redistricting referendum in Virginia on Tuesday, setting off intense squabbling among House Republicans about why they were so badly outspent in the Old Dominion.

President Donald Trump’s war with Iran continues to roil global financial and energy markets with no end in sight. Trump’s polling numbers have collapsed, including on the economy, which is a huge problem for vulnerable GOP lawmakers. Another embattled Cabinet secretary bailed out this week, and a wave of sexual misconduct scandals have rocked Capitol Hill.

But House Republicans plan to try to get some momentum back.

First. Johnson and the House Republican leadership team plan to unveil a framework next week of what could be included in a third reconciliation bill. This is aimed at convincing rank-and-file Republicans that they’re actually interested in pursuing a third package.

The House is ready to act next week on the second GOP reconciliation bill, which will be narrowly tailored to fund Border Patrol and ICE. Republicans hope to end a now 69-day shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security.

However, several key House Republicans — Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (Ohio), Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (Texas) and Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (Mo.) — are telling their rank-and-file colleagues that GOP leaders should add onto the ICE-Border Patrol bill. Johnson and his top lieutenants are trying to stop that sentiment from spreading.

The ultimate goal here is for House Republicans to pass the Senate’s budget resolution next week to reopen DHS. The situation is dire. The mega-department — currently operating under a Trump executive order — will have no more money to pay its employees in less than one week.

Still, some top Republican aides say that it could take a few weeks to pass a budget resolution. Johnson would then face the tough decision of whether to put the DHS funding bill on the floor before passing the reconciliation blueprint. This is something Johnson has said he doesn’t want to do.

Second. Johnson’s team is hell-bent on passing a FISA Section 702 reauthorization bill next week ahead of the Thursday expiration deadline.

After days of talks between hardline conservatives and moderates, House GOP leaders have released a three-year FISA bill with modest reforms. The legislation stops far short of the new warrant requirements that many in Congress are demanding. But it includes new penalties for FISA abuses and additional checks on information sought about U.S. persons.

Johnson has decided to put the bill on the floor under a rule, which requires a simple majority for passage. That means Johnson will have to clear that procedural hurdle with only Republican votes, which won’t be easy.

You have lawmakers like GOP Rep. Keith Self of Texas, who has been pushing ceaselessly for the inclusion of a ban on a central bank digital currency in the FISA bill, something the White House and Republican leaders want to avoid. Then there’s Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), who says she won’t vote for any rule unless the underlying bill includes the SAVE America Act. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) has been vehemently opposed to FISA.

If Johnson can’t get Republicans like these on board, he’s sunk — unless he somehow gets Democrats to vote with him on a rule.

But several House GOP sources tell us that Johnson won’t allow FISA to go dark. Johnson will put the bill on suspension of the rules if needed, meaning it would need 290 votes. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has been opposed to previous GOP versions of the FISA reauthorization bill. So the stakes are high.

Third. There’s also the farm bill reauthorization, which House GOP leaders have set for floor action before the upcoming recess.

This is going to be a close vote. With U.S. farmers under heavy economic pressure, seven Democrats voted for the GOP-drafted bill in the Agriculture Committee last month. More could do so on the floor.

Yet there are a number of Republicans who could vote no, so this is a fluid whip count.

Fourth. Then there’s the political side. The GOP-dominated Florida legislature is expected to meet next week on proposed new congressional maps for the Sunshine State. These could come out as soon as Monday. And the Virginia Supreme Court will hear arguments Monday on whether to strike down the new 10 Democrat-1 Republican map that the commonwealth voters approved this week.

– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

FLY OUT DAY

Fitzpatrick cool to Reconciliation 3.0

If you want to get a sense of the challenges facing Speaker Mike Johnson as he pursues a third reconciliation bill, just listen to what Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) said on Fly Out Day this week.

Fitzpatrick, one of the House’s leading moderates who represents a district Kamala Harris won in 2024, said he would vote for Reconciliation 2.0, which seeks to fund ICE and Border Patrol.

But when it comes to Reconciliation 3.0, Fitzpatrick is much more skeptical.

We told him that House GOP leaders — Johnson and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise — are talking about a third reconciliation bill.

Here was Fitzpatrick’s response: “Do they know how to count to 218?”

GOP moderates like Fitzpatrick have a lot to be skeptical about. In order to fill a third reconciliation bill with GOP priorities, House Republican leaders would almost definitely have to agree to spending cuts. They will call it eliminating waste, fraud and abuse.

That’s going to be very difficult for a lawmaker like Fitzpatrick, who is from one of the toughest GOP-held districts in America. Fitzpatrick and Rep. Thomas Massie (Ky.) were the only House Republicans to vote no on the One Big Beautiful Bill. Fitzpatrick also supported extending the Obamacare subsidies last year, which GOP leaders opposed.

Also: Fitzpatrick said Pennsylvania’s Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro will win re-election in 2026 and should run for president in 2028.

– Jake Sherman

RECONCILIATION

GOP moderates reconciliation dilemma

The GOP’s reconciliation bill funding ICE and Border Patrol represents another missed opportunity for Republicans in key races this fall.

Some moderate House Republicans were eager to work with Democrats on a package of reforms to immigration enforcement after federal agents shot and killed two protestors this January in Minneapolis.

But funding ICE and Border Patrol through reconciliation makes policy changes impossible unless they have a significant enough impact on the budget. And the GOP at large has little appetite for reforms after negotiations with Democrats fell apart.

“We would have certainly liked to have seen reforms, and we had a bipartisan package that we had put together,” said Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.), citing a bill from Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.).

Mods’ approach. Still, these vulnerable Republicans say they’ve supported ICE and CBP reforms and put the blame on Democrats for allowing the talks to fall apart. The moderates also tend to hate shutdowns, giving them an incentive to vote for reconciliation as long as it remains narrow.

Fitzpatrick said his message in his district will be: “Always fund the government and always seek to make positive reforms.”

Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) said the trouble with using reconciliation is that it limits policy changes.

“The reality is we should come to some sort of agreement,” Valadao added. “There was a process there. [Democrats are] choosing not to be a part of it, and it’s leaving us more vulnerable.”

California Rep. Kevin Kiley, who recently became an independent as he seeks reelection in a blue seat, said he’s heard concerns back home.

“I’ve been clear that I’d like to see some reforms to rebuild public trust, and I think there’s a lot that have bipartisan support,” Kiley said.

Republicans have also pointed to Trump administration-led changes at the Department of Homeland Security — including a new secretary — since the fatal shootings.

Some vulnerable Republicans also took the opportunity to go on offense against Democrats amid the months-long DHS shutdown.

“Democrats were offered reforms and rejected them,” Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) said. “Their handling of this has been a disaster.”

Democrats’ view. Democrats still see a political problem for the GOP, based on both what is and isn’t in the reconciliation bill. Senate Democrats spent the vote-a-rama — when they can offer unlimited amendments — pressuring GOP senators on cost of living issues.

“Pre-funding ICE with no reforms is a liability for them,” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) told us. “But I think the greatest liability that they are facing is what they’re not doing.”

— Laura Weiss, Rachel Umansky-Castro and Max Cohen

MONEY GAME

Sherrod Brown’s big April

How impressive of a fundraiser is former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio)?

Brown raised more than $1.5 million during the first half of April alone, according to campaign-finance reports due Thursday night ahead of Ohio’s May 5 primary. By April 15, Brown had a whopping $17 million in the bank.

Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) raised $261,000 in the same period. That’s nearly six times less than Brown. Husted had $8.1 million in the bank by April 15.

Ohio has gone red during the Trump era. But Brown singlehandedly puts the Senate race in play for the midterms. Yes, Brown lost to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) just last cycle. Yet a favorable midterm environment — with President Donald Trump off the ticket — could be a chance at redemption.

Husted, a former lieutenant governor, was appointed to fill the seat of Vice President JD Vance. Husted has lagged behind Brown in fundraising all cycle.

Brown raised $10.1 million in the first three months of the year. Husted raised $2.9 million, but pulled in another $1.7 million in a joint fundraising committee.

Ohio will also host a competitive governor’s race and several contested congressional contests, including in Cincinnati and Toledo.

The top Senate GOP super PAC has vowed to spend $79 million in Ohio to help Husted prevail.

– Ally Mutnick

THE CAMPAIGN

There are a few new TV ads worth highlighting this week.

California. Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) is going negative on Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.). His new spot slams Kim for “censuring and condemning” President Donald Trump.

Kim and Calvert were drawn into the same district under California’s new congressional map.

Montana. Matt Rains, a veteran of the Iraq war, released a spot critiquing Trump’s decision to “take us to war with no justification, no plan, no clear objectives.”

Rains is running in the Democratic primary for retiring GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke’s seat.

New Jersey. Surgeon Adam Hamawy is up with his first TV ad in the crowded Democratic primary for retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman’s (D-N.J.) seat.

Hamawy touts his work treating 9/11 aid workers and serving in the Army, and he vows to pass Medicare For All.

– Ally Mutnick