Why this week will be brutal

IN THIS EDITION

House GOP has an impossible week

Are Schumer-aligned candidates in trouble?

What we’re watching

Punchbowl News kicks off WHCD Weekend

THE TOP

House GOP has an impossible week

Happy Monday morning.

Saturday’s terrifying episode at the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner is the latest sign that U.S. political violence is growing worse, with no event or appearance entirely safe, no matter how high-profile the attendees. The fallout from this shocking incident will reverberate throughout Washington and nationally.

The alleged gunman, 31-year-old Cole Tomas Allen of Torrance, Calif., is expected to appear in federal court this morning. Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. attorney for D.C., said Allen faces two federal gun charges, and more are possible. Federal officials are looking into how Allen got into the Washington Hilton and the security posture for the event.

Allen allegedly wanted to harm President Donald Trump and other top administration officials, reportedly calling himself “The Friendly Family Assassin,” per the New York Post. Trump slammed Allen as “a whack job” and “lone wolf” following the shooting, which left one officer injured. During a “60 Minutes” interview Sunday with Norah O’Donnell, Trump noted that Allen’s family warned law enforcement after receiving a threatening email from him.

“I wasn’t worried,” Trump insisted. “I understand life. We live in a crazy world.”

Trump has said the WHCA dinner will be rescheduled and he’ll appear at the event sometime in the next 30 days. Meanwhile, several Republicans have called on Congress to approve Trump’s East Wing ballroom project, but we don’t see that going anywhere.

In our world. Congress is staring down an absolutely brutal week that will set the tone for the rest of the legislative year. There are 190 days until Election Day.

King Charles III will address a joint meeting of Congress on Tuesday (his late mother, Queen Elizabeth II, did so in 1991). FISA Section 702 expires Thursday. The House will try to pass a farm bill and a GOP-drafted budget resolution to allow funding for the Department of Homeland Security, including ICE and Border Patrol. The DHS shutdown has now reached a disastrous 72 days.

DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin has informed lawmakers that the Trump administration won’t be able to keep paying DHS employees past April 30. That means Congress has to move this week.

FISA. We’re hearing increasing confidence from Speaker Mike Johnson and House GOP leaders that they’ll be able to jam through a revised FISA Section 702 package after two previous failures. House Democrats acknowledge this privately as well. But as with everything in the House, we assume nothing is final until it’s final.

The House Rules Committee will meet at 1 p.m. to begin prepping the FISA bill, the Senate-passed budget DHS resolution, the farm bill and another measure that mandates schools must get parents’ permission before changing a student’s gender information.

We’ll be watching several dynamics inside the Rules Committee. First and foremost, can House Rules Committee Chair Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) report a rule out of the panel? The FISA bill has a few modest tweaks from the last disastrous House GOP attempt to pass it — enhanced criminal penalties for abuses of the system and other safeguards — but it remains a far cry from what hardline Republicans were demanding. Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas), Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) and Morgan Griffith (R-Va.) — all members of the panel — could call this rewrite a win, or they can continue to fight.

Second, the House Republican leadership tells us they’re going to reauthorize FISA this week, no matter what. That signals that GOP leaders need a lot of flexibility. Will the Rules Committee attempt to waive the House’s onerous restrictions on suspension votes in order to pass the FISA measure? The House isn’t allowed to bring these measures up on Thursdays or Fridays. This would be wise, but it’s not clear if Johnson has the capital to make this move now.

Johnson will likely need House Democrats one way or another here. There’s not enough Democratic support for passing FISA under suspension, so Johnson may turn to pro-FISA Democrats to pass a rule. Republicans could need to make concessions to get those Democratic votes. The FISA bill is tentatively scheduled for Tuesday on the floor.

If the House can pass a FISA extension, it’ll head over to the Senate as a message, reducing the number of procedural hurdles for Senate Majority Leader John Thune. But Thune will still need to secure a time agreement to pass it by Thursday’s deadline. This likely means Thune may have to allow amendment votes in exchange for a unanimous-consent agreement. Defeating some of the amendments from the pro-reform faction could prove difficult.

Budget resolution and DHS. DHS is again in the spotlight following Saturday’s attempted presidential shooting. Secret Service and TSA — both of which were protecting the dinner — are part of DHS, which has been shut down since Feb. 14.

Nearly a month ago, Johnson and Thune issued a statement saying DHS would be funded “in the coming days.” Senate Republican leaders believe Johnson reneged on that agreement to help himself inside the House GOP conference. House Republicans counter that Thune was unwise to fund DHS without ICE and CBP.

Wrapped up in all of this is Johnson’s promise to pass the Senate’s budget resolution before funding DHS. That vote is currently envisioned for Wednesday. The challenge here is that many House Republicans want the budget resolution — the framework for Reconciliation 2.0 — expanded beyond just ICE and CBP. Johnson has no interest in that.

To that end, Johnson will release this week a number of policies he’ll try to notch in Reconciliation 3.0. There’s a risk to this approach because Reconciliation 3.0 is far from a sure thing, and it could cost Johnson votes from moderates and conservatives alike.

— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Andrew Desiderio

SENATE MAP

Are Schumer-aligned candidates in trouble?

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has scored major Democratic recruitment coups this cycle in North Carolina, Alaska and Ohio. But in other top races, Schumer’s preferred candidates are locked in competitive primaries and failing to break ahead in the polls.

This is crunch time for Senate Democrats, who are increasingly optimistic about their chances of taking the majority in November. But even as they open up an outside chance to win the Senate, primary problems could stand in the way of a big Democratic upset.

In Maine, Gov. Janet Mills is flailing as progressive Graham Platner builds up a formidable lead. In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens is in a three-way race with state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and former health official Abdul El-Sayed. And in Iowa, state Rep. Josh Turek is running neck-and-neck with the more progressive state Sen. Zach Wahls.

Adding to the drama: Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and other progressive senators are endorsing and campaigning against Schumer’s preferred candidates in these races.

“Moderate candidates are the only ones who overperformed [former Vice President] Kamala Harris in 2024 in those swing states,” cautioned Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), who’s backing center-left candidates in primaries. “So that’s our map to winning.”

Schumer’s allies say he’ll ultimately be judged on general election results, not primaries. Cutting the number of GOP-held seats from 53 to 51 — or even 50 — would be considered an overperformance for Democrats given how bad the map was to start this cycle.

Maine. Unlike other contested Democratic primaries, Schumer has openly endorsed Mills, arguing she’s the most electable candidate given her statewide track record.

Platner has spent $6.9 million on TV and digital ads. With a big lead in the public polls, Platner is already pivoting away from the primary and has begun attacking GOP Sen. Susan Collins. Mills has spent less than $2 million on ads and has gone largely dark on TV since mid-April.

Mills’ sluggish campaign has surprised many Democrats. Platner has so far beat back a growing set of scandals, namely Reddit posts that demeaned victims of sexual assault and minimized rape, plus his Nazi tattoo. A pro-Collins super PAC tied to GOP mega donors has already started running ads against Platner. That would help Mills, a more traditional Democratic opponent for Collins to face in the general election. But it could also signal that Collins’ allies believe Platner is almost certain to be the nominee and want to start tearing him down now.

With the primary just seven weeks away, some Democrats are questioning the utility of a last-minute push for Mills, noting that attacking Platner could backfire if the current trajectory holds.

“If we’ve concluded that Mills is too far gone, I don’t think it makes much sense to deploy millions of dollars to attack the guy who we’re going to eventually all have to rally around to defeat Susan Collins,” said a Democratic senator who hasn’t endorsed in the Maine primary.

Michigan. While Schumer hasn’t publicly endorsed in Michigan, his allies believe Stevens is best positioned to beat former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers in the general election.

Stevens is polling even with El-Sayed and McMorrow. But a vocal contingent of progressives have a problem with Stevens’ candidacy, as evidenced by the scenes from the state party convention.

Schumer’s allies insist that Stevens will perform strongly with Black voters. Plus, they argue Stevens’ relentless focus on manufacturing makes her the most electable candidate in the general election.

Iowa. Schumer world is believed to be backing Turek in the Iowa primary, where both candidates posted nearly identical Q1 fundraising hauls. VoteVets is spending on a statewide ad buy pushing Turek.

Wahls has Warren’s endorsement and a larger national profile after he went viral for a speech defending LGBTQ+ rights in 2011. Wahls has aggressively criticized Schumer’s leadership.

— Max Cohen, Andrew Desiderio and Ally Mutnick

📆

What we’re watching

House. The House Rules Committee will meet at 1 p.m. to consider a compromise extension of FISA Section 702 for floor action.

The House Appropriations Committee will hold a budget hearing with NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman at 3:30 p.m.

The House will vote at 6:30 p.m. on a number of suspension bills: H.R. 4930, H.R. 6956, H.R. 7971, H.R. 7959, H.R. 6495, H.R. 5366, H.R. 2347, H.R. 5334, H.R. 6903, H.R. 6431, H.R. 227 and H.R. 8364.

All of these but one are from the House Ways and Means Committee. The exception is H.R. 8364, which comes from the House Administration Committee and authorizes “the increase of the retirement age in the United States Capitol Police.”

We’ll also be on the lookout this week for a possible report from the House Ethics Committee on embattled GOP Rep. Cory Mills (Fla.), who faces sexual misconduct allegations, among other things.

Senate. The Senate returns Monday night and has its fly-in vote at 5:30 p.m.

Around Washington this week:

— Monday. The Virginia Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in a challenge of the recent redistricting referendum. Republicans hope the court will overturn the referendum results and block redistricting.

President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump greet King Charles III at the White House for tea and a White House beehive tour.

— Tuesday. King Charles III will address a joint meeting of Congress.

The Senate Appropriations Committee has Education Secretary Linda McMahon and Isaacman testifying before separate subcommittees at 10 a.m.

Florida state legislators will meet in Tallahassee to begin a special session. Redistricting is on the agenda. The map could come out as soon as today.

— Wednesday. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum will testify at 9:30 a.m. before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

The Senate Banking Committee will convene at 10 a.m. to vote on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve chair. The House Armed Services Committee will hear testimony from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Dan Caine at 10 a.m. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin will be in front of the Senate Environment and Public Works panel at 2:30 p.m.

Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell will hold his final Federal Open Market Committee press conference at 2:30 p.m.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) will host world scientists to discuss the “Existential Risks of AI and Need for International Cooperation” at 7 p.m.

— Thursday. The FISA Section 702 program will expire.

Senate Appropriations subcommittees have more administration officials in, including Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins at 10 a.m.

— Laura Weiss, Brendan Pedersen, Anthony Adragna, Ally Mutnick and Max Cohen

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

Punchbowl News kicks off WHCD Weekend

On Friday, we hosted our annual event to kick off the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner weekend. The gathering celebrated the Fourth Estate and America’s 250th anniversary with drinks, bites and our signature gifting experience. Thank you to Boeing for partnering with us and making this event possible.

Anna Palmer, founder and CEO of Punchbowl News, and Jeff Shockey, executive vice president of government operations, global public policy and corporate strategy at Boeing, gave remarks.

Raising a glass: Ryan Wrasse and Stacey Daniels of Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s office; Ally Biasotti of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s office; Kate Noyes of Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso’s office; Nd Ubezonu, Christie Stephenson, Zoë Oreck and Jamie Fleet of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ office; and Mike Inacay and Vig Tharmarajah of Sen. Brian Schatz’s (D-Hawaii) office.

Derek Theurer of the Department of the Treasury; Phoebe Keller of the Senate Appropriations Committee; Margaret Mulkerrin of Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D-Md.) office; Grace Evans of Sen. Katie Britt’s (R-Ala.) office; Ashley Jones of Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s (D-Fla.) office; Joshua Lim of the Embassy of Singapore; Senay Bulbul of the British Embassy; and Eric Fejer of Sen. John Curtis’ (R-Utah) office.

Renata Miller of Sen. Ruben Gallego’s (D-Ariz.) office; Amanda Critchfield of the Senate Finance Committee; Suzanne Wrasse of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee; Audrey Cook of Sen. Marsha Blackburn’s (R-Tenn.) office; Aaron White and Elisabeth St. Onge of Sen. Peter Welch’s (D-Vt.) office; Annie Clark of Sen. Susan Collins’ (R-Maine) office; and Tom McLemore, Allison Melia, Goodloe Sutton and Betsy Stewart of Boeing.

AND THERE’S MORE

The Campaign. Tom Steyer is now running an ad statewide in California with a photo of former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.). “Some politicians are impossible to trust. Tom Steyer is a different story,” the narrator says as a photo of Swalwell pops up on the screen.

Watch the spot here.

Hill news. The House Ways and Means Committee is planning to mark up bipartisan foster care bills on Wednesday, according to multiple sources familiar with the plans.

The measures would modernize the Chafee program, which helps foster youth transition to adulthood. First Lady Melania Trump spoke at a bipartisan Ways and Means roundtable earlier this month focused on the proposals and ways to improve the foster care system.

– Jake Sherman and Laura Weiss