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April 28, 2025
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You voted for American energy dominance—and the Trump Administration is delivering. From solar to oil & gas, they’re unleashing it all. More energy. More jobs. Higher wages. America is booming—because when we lead, we win.
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THE TOP
Trump and the GOP’s next 100 days
Happy Monday morning.
News about Punchbowl News: We have a very exciting announcement this morning. Ally Mutnick is joining us from Politico. We couldn’t be happier. Ally has been a friend to many of us for a long time. We’re also relieved she’s no longer a competitor. Ally will be a huge asset for Punchbowl News readers across all of our platforms.
Ally will be covering the House with us. She’ll play a huge role in helping us continue to own two of the biggest stories of the next year: legislating and the 2026 midterms. Ally starts May 12. We’re so grateful to have her on our team.
The Next 100 Days: President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office since returning to the White House started strong but are ending on a distinctly sour note.
Trump’s poll numbers are down sharply, especially on his handling of the economy. After a chaotic start, DOGE has fizzled out while Elon Musk is limping away to repair his battered corporate empire.
The U.S. national security apparatus is in disarray. Trump’s big success in shutting down illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border has been overwhelmed by legal challenges to deportations, including the stunning removal of three American citizens, all young children.
Most importantly, neither Trump nor senior administration officials can coherently or consistently explain the president’s approach to tariffs and the trade war – or what the end game is.
With a critical Q1 2025 GDP report set to be released on Wednesday morning, there’s tremendous uncertainty on where the U.S. economy is heading. It’s unclear whether the country is moving toward a recession or not, and what that means politically for Republicans this fall and in the 2026 midterm elections.
On Capitol Hill: It’s fair to say this next three-month stretch – from today until the August recess – is the most important period of the 119th Congress. Perhaps the most important of Trump’s second term.
Speaker Mike Johnson will meet with Trump at the White House today at 2 p.m. This session will be with NRCC Chair Richard Hudson and Rep. Brian Jack (R-Ga.), the former Trump aide who’s now in charge of candidate recruitment for House Republicans.
Lawmakers are back in session after a busy two-week recess. House Republicans will begin on Tuesday marking up their massive reconciliation package, including potentially huge cuts to Medicaid and other social safety-net programs. They’re scrambling to come up with a package that meets Trump’s goal of cutting taxes for Americans making less than $200,000, plus four years of no taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security payments.
Trump acknowledged to reporters on Sunday that “it’ll take a little while” to draft and pass the tax-cut portion of reconciliation. Johnson has pledged to get a reconciliation bill to Trump’s desk by Memorial Day, now less than a month away. We’ve told you repeatedly that that timetable is likely unworkable, but GOP leaders are pressing their committee chairs to move as quickly as possible.
And as we scooped last week, the Treasury Department is expected to release an “X date” this week for when the U.S. government will hit the debt limit. That’s the real backstop for any reconciliation package.
This week’s House schedule on reconciliation markups:
Tuesday: The Homeland Security Committee, Armed Services Committee, Education and Workforce Committee.
Wednesday: Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Financial Services Committee.
House GOP leaders intend to have private conversations with rank-and file-lawmakers about just what they’re willing to stomach in terms of tax policy and Medicaid cuts. These conversations will begin this week in earnest.
Meanwhile, House Democratic leadership aides have been huddling with their own committee staffers to plot out how to make these upcoming markups “as painful as possible.”
The House Armed Services Committee released a proposal Sunday that spells out $150 billion in new Pentagon spending called for under the GOP reconciliation instructions. There’s $25 billion for Trump’s “Golden Dome” missile defense program, plus tens of billions of dollars for new ships, missiles, drones and other equipment. Democrats bashed the measure as “a partisan budget reconciliation gimmick” that avoids the normal legislative process.
Overall, Democrats have finally settled on a message – Trump is a tyrannical mess. Or a messy tyrant. Either way, Trump is a dangerous disaster.
“Donald Trump’s first 100 days have been 100 days from hell for the American people,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a Sunday letter. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries – who spent 12 hours on Sunday camped out on the Capitol steps – called the GOP reconciliation plan “unacceptable, it’s unconscionable, it’s un-American, and we’re going to do everything we can to bury it in the ground, never to rise again.”
Stefanik watch. GrayHouse, the GOP polling firm run by Landon Wall, has a fresh New York poll that’ll turn some heads in the House Republican Conference and in the Empire State.
The survey of 400 GOP primary voters has Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) leading a hypothetical primary campaign for governor with 44%, besting Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), who has 7%. And 44% of those polled were undecided.
In a head-to-head with Gov. Kathy Hochul, Stefanik is trailing 46%-40% with 14% undecided. Hochul is up on Lawler 45%-38% with 18% undecided. Here’s the poll and the memo from GrayHouse, which funded this survey on its own.
– John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman
Tomorrow, Tuesday, April 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET, we’re speaking with Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Fla.). Join Punchbowl News Founder and CEO Anna Palmer and Lee for a conversation on the news of the day and how the country is advancing with artificial intelligence. RSVP here!
The Vault: The anti-abortion movement and the tax bill
Anti-abortion groups have been stepping up their campaign to get tax priorities into Republicans’ reconciliation bill, urging lawmakers to expand benefits for families and new parents.
As House GOP tax writers scramble to draft a reconciliation package, they’re planning to include a win for these organizations, per sources close to the process.
Here are tax provisions anti-abortion groups and conservative leaders are seeking in the reconciliation bill, according to letters sent to GOP lawmakers and reviewed by Punchbowl News.
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— Another expansion of the child tax credit. Proposals include boosting the maximum value of benefits from $2,000 to $2,500 and indexing that amount to inflation.
— A boost to paid family leave programs.
— New economic support for parents when a child is born.
— The creation of a new tax credit for pregnancy resource centers, which are anti-abortion organizations that seek to persuade women not to terminate their pregnancies.
The requests have come from former GOP congressional leaders including former Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) and former Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.). Members of the Blueprint for Life Coalition have also pressed Republicans on the issue. Those members include leaders of Americans United for Life, Students for Life Action and the National Association of Evangelicals.
Anti-abortion organizations achieved a huge long-time goal when the Supreme Court toppled Roe v. Wade in 2022. That opened the door for state-level abortion bans.
But in the wake of the ruling, leading anti-abortion and religious groups have also called for more programs to support families, citing the need for a broader “culture of life.”
There’s also been a renewed effort among Republicans to make the child tax credit a more central part of the GOP’s policy agenda, adding a populist flair. That’s come as Democrats have championed the child tax credit as a signature policy goal in recent years.
Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) has said the GOP’s reconciliation bill will likely expand the child credit, an important signal after GOP senators blocked a tax deal that would’ve boosted the benefit last Congress.
— Laura Weiss
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PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS
Punchbowl News presents: The Innovators
On Friday, Punchbowl News hosted The Innovators, our annual kickoff event for White House Correspondents’ Dinner weekend. The event celebrated innovators across industries in business and media through our partner activation and signature gifting experience. Thank you to Intuit for partnering with us to make this event possible.
Anna Palmer, founder and CEO of Punchbowl News, and Michael Kennedy, chief corporate affairs officer at Intuit, gave remarks. Check out photos from the event here!
Raising a glass: Ryan Wrasse of Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s office; Christiana Stephenson of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ office; Bethany Holden of Rep. August Pfluger’s (R-Texas) office; Suzanne Wrasse of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee; Amanda Critchfield and Phoebe Keller of the Senate Finance Committee; Senay Bulbul of the British Embassy; and Phoebe Ferraiolo of the Senate Appropriations Committee.
Ben Schwartz, Tyler Cozzens, Paul Lindsay, and Derrick Plummer of Intuit; Andrew Bleeker and Scott Mulhauser of Bully Pulpit International; JP Fielder of bp; Jill McCarthy of Goldman Sachs; James Williams of Arnold Ventures; Holly Harris of The Network; Emily Crane Pimentel of KPMG; Hugh Gamble of Salesforce; Susan Fox of The Walt Disney Company; and Alexis Williams of Stagwell.
Ron Bonjean of ROKK Solutions; Ben Jenkins and Erin Billings of LSG; Danielle Burr of McKinsey & Co.; Lauren Belive of Ripple; Jeffrey Zubricki of Etsy; Jeff Shockey of The Boeing Company; Emily Schillinger of American Investment Council; Hastie Afkhami of S-3 Group; Lance West and Matt Dickman of Comcast; Erin Streeter of National Association of Manufacturers; Michael Steel of Business Roundtable; and Jessica Dean, Abby Philip, and Phil Mattingly of CNN.
PRESENTED BY AMAZON
Amazon’s workplace recordable incident rate in the U.S. has improved 27% in the past five years. Learn more.
DOWNTOWN DOWNLOAD
Johnson’s general counsel joins Jenner & Block
News: Ashley Callen, general counsel to Speaker Mike Johnson, is joining Jenner & Block to help lead the Chicago-based law firm’s congressional investigations practice.
We first reported last month that Callen would be leaving the Hill after more than 20 years. Callen was a fixture in all of the major House GOP oversight efforts during that time, and she played a pivotal role in defending President Donald Trump during his first impeachment. Callen told us she’ll be advising clients on a whole range of congressional investigations touching on Big Tech, China, higher education and more.
Callen’s hiring is notable in part because Jenner is one of the law firms Trump has targeted with executive orders seeking to pressure them over past work for his perceived enemies. And unlike many of the other firms that Trump has gone after, Jenner is actually fighting back.
Callen declined to comment on all of this but said Johnson is “very supportive” of her decision, adding that defending Trump in his first impeachment was “one of the benchmarks of my career.”
“I’ve been a Republican lawyer for 20 years. I will always be an ally of President Trump,” Callen said.
— Andrew Desiderio
… AND THERE’S MORE
News: Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) is endorsing Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton to succeed Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.). Stratton will likely be in a Democratic primary with at least a few members of Congress, potentially including Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) and Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.). Stratton also has the support of Illinois Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker.
Health news: A health care coalition is launching a $750,00 digital ad buy highlighting Big Pharma’s drug pricing practices.
The ads titled “Max Profitrexil” and “Patent Abuserol” parody typical pharmaceutical ads while urging Congress to scrutinize the pharmaceutical industry’s anti-competitive pricing, direct-to-consumer advertising and patent practices. The spots will air in Washington over the next two months.
The Campaign for Sustainable Rx Pricing is made up of groups including AARP, BlueCross BlueShield and the Federation of American Hospitals.
President Donald Trump signed an executive order in February marking price transparency in health care as a priority. Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) also have legislation on the issue.
— Samantha Handler
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Presented by RED Coalition
You voted for American energy dominance—and the Trump Administration is delivering. From solar to oil & gas, they’re unleashing it all. More energy. More jobs. Higher wages. America is booming—because when we lead, we win.