News: The Treasury Department next week will give Congress its estimate for when the federal government exhausts its ability to borrow money, according to multiple sources close to the issue.
Most estimates for the date when the federal government will reach its borrowing limit — known as the “X date” — peg it at some point this summer or early fall. But Treasury is expected to give its most updated estimate next week as April tax receipts come in.
This update will be critical. Republicans have included a debt limit increase in their reconciliation package. The House has a $4 trillion boost while the Senate set it at $5 trillion. GOP congressional leaders would like to lift the borrowing cap as part of the reconciliation package instead of trying to pass a standalone bill, which would necessitate negotiating with Democrats. President Donald Trump wants this too. It would allow the federal government to keep borrowing money past the 2026 midterm elections.
But an earlier “X-date” would put additional pressure on House and Senate Republicans to pass their reconciliation package more quickly.
The initial goal, as stated by Speaker Mike Johnson, was to get the reconciliation package through the House and Senate and to Trump’s desk by Memorial Day.
Privately, House Republican leadership maintains that aggressive timetable. The GOP leadership is asking committees involved in reconciliation to meet an extremely rapid markup schedule to keep the Memorial Day goal line in sight.
Several top GOP lawmakers and aides said the House may be able to pass the package by the end of May. Yet it’s unlikely to make it through both chambers in that timeframe. Sources in the House GOP leadership say they view the July 4 recess or the August break as true deadlines for reconciliation.
House and Senate Republican leaders kicked almost every significant decision about the reconciliation package down the line when they crafted their compromise budget resolution. Assembling the votes for a massive reconciliation package with spending cuts — potentially to programs like Medicaid and SNAP — and a multi-trillion dollar tax package is no simple task.
For its part, the Senate has little incentive to get the bill done by Memorial Day unless the “X date” is looming. Senate GOP leaders have signaled throughout the reconciliation process that they believed working out a tax and spending cut bill would take more time.
To that end, Republican senators have never viewed the Memorial Day timeline as a realistic goal. Some have floated later targets, including getting the bill to Trump’s desk by the August recess. This is what fueled Senate Republicans’ desire for a two-part reconciliation process.
