It's all unraveling for House Republicans

IN THIS EDITION

Once again, House Republicans are a mess

What’s next for Florida Dems?

Israel is latest flashpoint in heated Nebraska primary

What we’re watching

THE TOP

Once again, House Republicans are a mess

Happy Tuesday morning.

This week is already unraveling for House Republicans. And it’s only Tuesday.

1) House Republicans recessed the Rules Committee on Monday night without a path forward on extending FISA Section 702 authority, which lapses on Thursday. GOP leaders haven’t been able to resolve the same complaints from conservatives they’ve heard for weeks now, threatening what the White House and U.S. intelligence officials call a vital surveillance tool.

2) Speaker Mike Johnson wants to change the Senate-passed bill to fund the Department of Homeland Security, another twist in the now 73-day shutdown. DHS needs funding by April 30 to continue paying its 270,000 employees, who are currently receiving their salaries under two executive orders from President Donald Trump.

3) Trump is urging House Republicans to adopt the Senate-approved budget resolution that tees up ICE and Border Patrol funding, despite widespread concern that it’s silent on other GOP priorities.

4) House members are now fighting over various provisions in the farm bill, which was supposed to be the easiest legislation of the week.

All together, this paints a multifront picture of chaos for Johnson and other top House Republicans. It puts new pressure on the Senate. And time is running short before next week’s recess.

“They’re clearly not talking to their members,” Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.), top Rules Committee Democrat, said shortly before midnight on Monday as Republicans failed to pass a rule to extend FISA. “They have no clue on strategy or how to move anything across the finish line, and it’s just frustrating as hell.”

FISA. Johnson and House Republicans made modest tweaks to the FISA renewal proposal that failed just over a week ago. But GOP leaders won’t agree to warrant requirements for Section 702 inquiries involving a U.S. person, a key concession sought by conservatives.

The House Rules Committee recessed and never came back Monday night as Republican leaders struggled to find a path forward amid the conservative dissent. The panel may return as soon as 7:30 a.m. this morning.

“They keep coming back with the same stuff,” Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) complained of House GOP leaders.

“Still no warrants, still no CBDC, still no penalties to amount to anything. We’re kind of back to square one,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) added.

House Democratic leaders were working Monday to prevent any Democrats from voting for any FISA rule, citing the need for additional safeguards to rein in the Trump administration. This comes after four moderate Democrats voted yes last week on Johnson’s failed FISA renewal attempt.

“Don’t enable their incompetence,” McGovern said of his message to fellow Democrats.

Johnson told House Republicans that if they can’t come together on FISA, the Senate would move a bill first and the House may be forced to eat it.

The Senate is scheduled to hold a procedural vote today on a three-year clean FISA Section 702 extension. This is the backup option that Senate Majority Leader John Thune teed up following the House’s initial FISA debacle.

Johnson could also move another short-term extension to avoid a program shutdown. But it’s becoming more and more clear that House Republican leaders simply don’t have the aptitude or ability to come up with a compromise bill. So a short-term extension to buy more time may not be worth it.

DHS. Nearly a month ago, Johnson and Thune said Congress would fund DHS “in the coming days.” Yet Johnson still hasn’t put the Senate-passed bill on the floor, which would fund DHS apart from ICE and Border Patrol. Republicans will try to fund those two agencies through the reconciliation process.

Now, Johnson is trying to rework language in the Senate version that zeroed out accounts for ICE and Border Patrol. House Republicans are worried about the optics of voting for this.

It’s not clear yet if this is a technical correction — a small tweak in the bill — or a major change. If House Republicans jam it through, this could all come off the rails in the Senate, where Democrats would need to consent to quick passage of any amended bill.

“This has got to be just a straight-up technical thing, otherwise it gets into other areas or they add stuff to it and it becomes a real problem,” Thune said.

Thune has been frustrated with Johnson’s refusal to pass the unanimously-approved Senate DHS funding bill, saying Monday it was “drafted with our folks who have been doing this for a long time in a certain way.”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer declined to comment Monday on how Democrats would approach the issue. But the GOP food fight is creating few political incentives for Democrats to throw them a lifeline.

Yet the DHS shutdown is approaching a crisis — again. The White House is likely to say that Congress needs to pass a DHS funding bill before leaving town at the end of this week.

Tied up in all of this is the budget resolution that would allow for another reconciliation package, which House leaders see as a prerequisite to passing the Senate’s DHS bill. The House GOP whip team surveyed the conference Monday evening on the budget resolution and it wasn’t clear that the measure had the support to pass.

Farm bill. Even the farm bill — which was supposed to be the easiest lift of the week — is running into trouble. The GOP has a problem with a provision in the bill dealing with pesticide labeling.

Plus, midwestern and oil-and-gas state lawmakers have reignited their fight over the year-round sale of E15. This was a problem that House Republicans were supposed to fix months ago.

The farm bill is perhaps the one bill that could wait for consideration until after the May recess.

— Jake Sherman, Anthony Adragna, Andrew Desiderio, Samantha Handler and Briana Reilly

THE SUNSHINE STATE

What’s next for Florida Dems?

Florida Democrats have some tough decisions to make.

Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis released a proposed congressional map on Monday that aims to reduce Democrats’ footprint in the state to just four House districts. The Florida House delegation currently has eight Democrats and 20 Republicans.

DeSantis’ proposed map is going to lead to an uncomfortable game of musical chairs and some early retirements.

Democrats we spoke to Monday evening called the GOP-drawn map “illegal” and a violation of Florida’s ban on partisan gerrymandering. But some Democrats were more willing than others to imagine a life in the new 24R-4D reality.

Take Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.), for instance. The two-term Democrat noted, “This is going to wind up in court,” but Moskowitz added, “I’m running for reelection. I’ll figure out what district I’m going to run in. I think there’s three districts I could choose from.”

DeSantis didn’t release partisan data with his proposed map. But Florida operatives and politicos scrambled to compile a rough sketch of what the new districts would look like.

The Tampa area was split into three districts, leaving Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor in a district that President Donald Trump won by roughly 10 points.

Castor told Florida Politics that she’d run for reelection no matter what the new map looks like.

In central Florida, only one blue district remained for Democratic Reps. Maxwell Frost and Darren Soto.

Soto indicated he thinks the map is “illegal” and said he wouldn’t abandon his current 9th District. If the new lines go into effect, Soto will face an uphill battle. Trump carried the district by roughly 18 points, according to early estimates.

South Florida scramble. South Florida is where things could get messy for Democrats.

Former Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick’s resignation means there are four Democratic incumbents for three seats. If no one is willing to retire, there could very well be a member-on-member primary.

There’s a Democratic seat anchored in Palm Beach County, another in Broward County and a third that spans Miami-Dade and part of Broward. Reps. Frederica Wilson, Lois Frankel, Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Moskowitz could run in these seats.

“What the governor put out is an absolutely unconstitutional gerrymander,” Wasserman Schultz said. “It’s going to be challenged, and we’ll see them in court.“

Dummymander? The new GOP-leaning 25th District stretches along the southern coast. Trump would have won that district by about nine points, per early data.

The new 22nd District, which spans much of south-central Florida, backed Trump by roughly the same amount.

Trump carried all the other GOP-held seats by 12 points or higher in 2024.

But the big question for Florida is whether the 2024 numbers will be predictive for 2026. If 2024 was a high-water mark for the GOP, Republicans will be at risk of a dummymander.

Democrats are insisting they will go on offense. The DCCC is out with a new video featuring House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries taunting Florida Republicans.

“We’re all hands on deck to stop this illegal and unconstitutional power grab in Florida,” Jeffries told us Monday evening.

– Ally Mutnick and Max Cohen

THE CAMPAIGN

Israel is latest flashpoint in heated Nebraska primary

The Democratic primary in Nebraska’s 2nd District has quickly become one of the most contentious races in the country.

This race pits nonprofit executive Denise Powell against state Sen. John Cavanaugh, with a host of major Democratic outside groups lining up behind them. The New Democrat Action Fund is backing Powell, as is EMILYs List. The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC is boosting Cavanaugh. Republicans are even meddling in the primary.

The two Democratic candidates and their supporters have sparred over ideological fault lines, questions of electability and the idiosyncrasies of Nebraska’s electoral system.

Now, the latest flashpoint may be Israel for this May 12 primary.

The backstory. New Democrat Majority, an independent expenditure group that backs New Democrat Coalition-endorsed candidates, went up with a $750,000 ad buy attacking Cavanaugh this week.

The ad claims that if Cavanaugh wins the House seat, Nebraska’s “blue dot” — the one electoral vote the Omaha-based 2nd District receives in presidential elections — will be at risk. Powell’s allies argue that Nebraska’s GOP governor will appoint a Cavanaugh successor in the state Senate, “creating a MAGA super-majority to eliminate the blue dot.”

There’s more to this ad buy, however.

Democratic Majority for Israel PAC initially placed an ad buy that was nearly identical to New Democrat Majority’s — on the same stations and with the same media buyer, per AdImpact. But DMFI pulled back on that buy.

New Democrat Majority increased their buy so DMFI opted to focus their funds elsewhere, per a person familiar with the spending.

But there are likely other factors in play. Support for Israel has become a lightning-rod issue in Democratic primaries.

Nebraska candidates were asked at a forum earlier this year if they would take money from AIPAC or DMFI. Powell said she wouldn’t accept funds from “any special interest group in this category.” Powell or any candidate, however, cannot coordinate with super PACs.

The stakes. Rep. Don Bacon’s (R-Neb.) retirement creates an open seat in a district that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.

Allies of both Powell and Cavanaugh insist their candidate is better positioned to flip the seat.

“Powell is a strong candidate and gives us the best chance to win the general election and put us in the majority,” New Dem Action Fund Chair Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.) told us.

“Cavanaugh has both a proven track record, and also the populist priorities, that bring out all kinds of voters,” CPC Chair Greg Casar (D-Texas) said. “He’s the likeliest to flip that seat blue.”

— Max Cohen and Ally Mutnick

📆

What we’re watching

House. Democrats will gather for weekly meetings in the morning and will hold a leadership press conference after.

King Charles III will address a joint meeting of Congress at 3 p.m.

The floor schedule is anyone’s guess as House Republicans were unable to get a rule out of the Rules Committee Monday night.

The first House vote series is currently scheduled for 4:30 p.m. The second vote series is slated for 9 p.m. on the motion to recommit, final passage of the FISA reauthorization and another Iran War Powers resolution, which could be close.

Senate. The Senate will vote at 11 a.m. to tee up a nominations package. Then senators will vote on cloture on the motion to proceed to a three-year FISA extension bill.

The Senate will break for weekly party lunches, but leadership news conferences aren’t expected in the afternoon due to King Charles’ Capitol Hill visit.

Senators will consider a war powers resolution from Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) on Cuba around 5 p.m., as President Donald Trump has threatened the island militarily.

Off the floor, the Senate Appropriations Committee has a budget hearing with NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman at 10 a.m.

Washington. Trump will host King Charles at the White House all day. The two have a bilateral meeting at 11:40 a.m. and a dinner at 8:05 p.m.

— Max Cohen, Anthony Adragna and Laura Weiss

AND THERE’S MORE

King Charles resolution. Sens. Jim Risch (R-Idaho) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) are introducing a resolution commemorating King Charles III’s address today to a joint meeting of Congress. The resolution “encourages deeper cooperation between the United States and the United Kingdom on strategic security cooperation, including in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.”

Chatbots. Senate Commerce Committee Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) will release a bill later today focused on kids’ use of chatbots, with an emphasis on parental consent.

— Max Cohen and Ben Brody