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April 8, 2025
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THE TOP
How Johnson plans to quell the rebellion
Happy Tuesday morning.
Speaker Mike Johnson has a rebellion on his hands. And this is supposed to be the easy part of passing President Donald Trump’s agenda.
In the midst of crafting one of the most difficult pieces of legislation ever – not just tax cuts but massive spending cuts too – Johnson wants House Republicans to trust him to win a showdown with Senate Republicans. That’s a huge ask.
Members from across the Republican Conference are telling Johnson and his top lieutenants that they don’t support the House-Senate compromise budget resolution, throwing into doubt whether the speaker can get the votes this week to pass it.
By the House GOP leadership’s estimate, there are as many as a dozen no votes. Many House leadership sources believe there are far more. Johnson can only lose three Republicans on this party-line vote.
Their complaints are familiar. The budget resolution’s bifurcated spending targets gives Senate Republicans too much leverage to cut hundreds of billions of dollars less than the House GOP is demanding.
Johnson’s biggest problem is that the griping is coming from unfamiliar corners of the GOP conference. Members of the Budget Committee — including Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), the panel’s chair — and traditional leadership allies are saying they can’t back the compromise resolution approved by the Senate on Saturday morning.
All this comes at a critical moment for Hill Republicans. DOGE-related layoffs of tens of thousands of federal employees have spurred a gigantic public pushback. Trillions of dollars in wealth have vanished overnight as Trump tries to unilaterally remake the global trade regime, although a bounceback looks to be in the works.
The reconciliation process also gets more complex, and challenging, as it progresses. Every vote raises the stakes dramatically.
The House has to approve the resolution as is or it will have to go back to the Senate for more debate, including another vote-a-rama. House and Senate Republican leaders and the White House firmly say they’re not open to amending this resolution.
And remember, the current GOP resolution remains largely just a shell. While there are lots of spending targets, there are no policy specifics yet for Republican lawmakers to haggle over. For instance, while the House reconciliation instructions call for more than $800 billion in spending cuts by the Energy and Commerce Committee, it doesn’t say from what programs or how at this point. The Senate’s instructions are even vaguer.
What the nos sound like. One of Johnson’s chief complaints as speaker is that he’s frequently underestimated or misjudged. But the speaker and Trump have their work cut out for them this week.
Listen to these complaints from across the conference.
– Rep. Keith Self (R-Texas), who whipped “no” on Monday evening: “We’ll see if there’s a vote [Wednesday]. They’re whipping it right now, and I don’t think it can pass.”
– Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.): “The leverage is right now. I just don’t believe that if we can’t set some kind of a floor for spending cuts now we’re going to get them anytime later.”
– Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who said he wants to first see “what the actual reconciliation product” will look like: “There’s no reason we have to do it this way… Show us your cards.”
The whipping process. Johnson and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise were holed up in the leadership suite Monday night meeting with different groups of House Republicans. They started with GOP moderates.
Johnson also huddled with the hardline conservatives of the House Freedom Caucus. Leaving that meeting, Johnson was adamant he could still move forward with a vote this week.
OMB Director Russ Vought, Deputy OMB Director and former HFC member Dan Bishop and James Braid, the White House’s Hill liaison, met separately with Freedom Caucus board members to make their case, according to several sources.
Why today is a gigantic day. At 9 a.m., the House Republican Conference will meet behind closed doors. “Time is not our friend here,” Johnson said Monday night.
Johnson’s pitch will be that the budget resolution is but a procedural vote that allows the House to go fight for its position in negotiations with the Senate. Here’s how the speaker sees it:
Remember: Johnson has tried to create maximum pressure at every juncture to continue forward on Trump’s agenda. His play now is to tell lawmakers that they can’t have a say on the eventual reconciliation package unless they pass this budget resolution.
White House plays the pressure game. Trump isn’t expected to attend today’s House GOP meeting in the Capitol. But the administration is playing the outside game a bit. Twenty-two Republican governors have sent Trump a letter supporting the House-Senate budget resolution.
Trump posted on Truth Social his support for the Senate budget proposal on Monday night, making it clear what he wants done: “THE HOUSE MUST PASS THIS BUDGET RESOLUTION, AND QUICKLY — MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
Trump is speaking at the NRCC dinner tonight too. A not-so-subtle reminder that the House Republican majority revolves around him.
Markets up. The Nikkei Stock Average was up 6% on Tuesday after the White House said it would be opening trade negotiations with Japan. Dow futures, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were all pointing higher too.
– Jake Sherman, Laura Weiss, John Bresnahan, Max Cohen and Mica Soellner
Happening tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET: Punchbowl News founder Jake Sherman and Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas) will sit down to discuss the news of the day and investing in America. There’s still time to RSVP here!
TARIFFS
Trump’s latest loyalty test
President Donald Trump’s trade war is his newest loyalty test — maybe the biggest one in years. And the stakes couldn’t be higher, not only for the U.S. economy but also the GOP’s hold on Washington beyond 2026.
The White House and Republican leaders on Capitol Hill are trying to head off any possibility that GOP lawmakers rebel in large numbers against Trump’s stunningly risky tariff regime.
“Don’t be Stupid! Don’t be a PANICAN (A new party based on Weak and Stupid people!),” Trump posted to X on Monday as Wall Street and global markets were crashing again. “Be Strong, Courageous, and Patient, and GREATNESS will be the result!”
The White House also issued a formal veto threat against a bipartisan bill from Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) that would limit the president’s ability to unilaterally impose tariffs.
While Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick – and Trump – have repeatedly insisted Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on dozens of the top U.S. trading partners aren’t a negotiating ploy, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will lead negotiations with the Japanese government over trade relations between the two countries.
“President Trump again gave himself maximum negotiating leverage,” Bessent said on Fox Business. “Just when he achieved the maximum leverage, he’s willing to start talking,”
Speaker Mike Johnson — who signaled he’d never move legislation limiting Trump’s tariff powers in his chamber — pushed the “Trust Trump” button early and often Monday.
“I think you gotta give the president the latitude… the runway to do what he was elected to do, and that is get this economy going. Get our trade balanced with other countries,” Johnson told reporters.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who has made no secret of his opposition to across-the-board tariffs, maintained that Trump deserves time and space to reach his ultimate goals. Referencing the Trump veto threat, Thune suggested the bipartisan push won’t become law.
Shut it down. Johnson and Thune’s comments, for now at least, appear to have quashed an uprising among the rank-and-file GOP lawmakers. Another day of mega market volatility didn’t push additional Republican senators to sign onto the Grassley-Cantwell bill.
But Trump isn’t making it easy for Republicans. GOP senators say they’re confused about what exactly Trump is trying to accomplish or his endgame.
“We don’t know how long it will take. We don’t know what the short-term consequences will be,” said Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.). “We don’t know if the medicine will be worse than the disease… We’re in the economic unknown.”
Still, Kennedy said Trump “deserves a chance, within reason, to see his plan through.” Kennedy told us he’d give Trump “a fair amount” of latitude.
“It’s been, like five days,” Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) quipped. “They need more than five days.”
Republicans are pinning the uncertainty not on Trump, but on his aides. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) compared it to an “angels-vs.-demons” situation, saying “there are voices in the White House that want high tariffs forever.”
That should tell you all you need to know about how much deference Republicans are willing to give Trump. And blaming everything on Trump’s aides is a way to avoid criticizing the president himself.
— Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan
The Vault: All eyes on Greer as trade war rumbles on
The Trump administration’s top trade official is landing on Capitol Hill at the hottest moment for trade in years, with Wall Street and the business world desperate for any insight into President Donald Trump’s plans.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will testify before the Senate Finance Committee this morning and the House Ways and Means Committee Wednesday. Here’s a look at what Greer plans to tell senators, which we scooped Monday.
Greer’s testimony comes as some Republicans are starting to – delicately – express alarm about Trump’s massive new tariffs. Republicans still feel immense pressure not to break with Trump on anything. But market mayhem is a tough pill to swallow.
Finance Republicans’ view. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who has “a lot of questions” for Greer, told reporters that the markets need to see specific trade negotiations for things to calm down.
“The markets are not going to cease in voting no-confidence until they begin to see that,” said Tillis, who’s up for reelection in 2026. Tillis has warned that the tariffs could even undermine Republicans’ reconciliation bill.
Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), another panel member, just launched a bipartisan bill to require congressional approval of tariffs within 60 days. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has already dismissed the effort.
Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) said he’s been encouraging the administration to “bring more clarity” to business leaders and markets amid the trade wars.
“I think there’s a real opportunity to pocket some wins, reset relations and then move on to some other issues,” Young added.
Changing the narrative. Officials from as many as 70 countries have reached out for negotiations in the wake of the tariffs, according to Trump administration officials. Several Republicans said they plan to ask Greer more about that.
“He will be able to really contrast inaction from the last four years to a very aggressive trade posture right now,” said Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Neb.), chair of Ways and Means’ Trade Subcommittee.
The Dems: Democrats will have a field day pressing Greer on Trump’s tariffs — from their impact on prices to the broader economy. This is a huge opportunity for Democrats to score political points, and they’ve been taking it.
Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) told us that Democrats will talk about “why it doesn’t make sense to cling to these authorities of yesteryear” that allowed Trump’s tariffs and for Congress to step in on trade.
– Laura Weiss, Brendan Pedersen, Ben Brody and Max Cohen
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THE MAP
Who the DCCC is targeting in ‘26
News: The DCCC’s target list for the midterms features 35 House Republicans, an expansive map that underscores Democrats’ growing optimism heading into 2026.
Of the 35 GOP lawmakers, only three represent districts that former Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024. But the DCCC is encouraged by dramatic overperformances from special election candidates in deep-red Florida and what Democrats see as Republicans’ “wildly unpopular agenda.”
Check out all the Republicans on the DCCC list here.
Nine of these targets stood out to us, given they were listed as “solid Republican” by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter: Reps. Cory Mills (Fla.), Maria Elvira Salazar (Fla.), Ashley Hinson (Iowa), Andy Barr (Ky.), Ann Wagner (Mo.), Max Miller (Ohio), Mike Turner (Ohio), Mike Carey (Ohio) and Andy Ogles (Tenn.).
Another note: Cook rates Reps. Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.), Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) and Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) as “likely Republican” seats, meaning they’re in play next year. But none are on this DCCC list.
Other campaign news: Republican Joe Males, a Marine veteran and Hemet city councilmember, is announcing his run in California’s 25th District against Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Calif.). While Ruiz won by double digits last cycle, the district shifted heavily toward Trump, who won 48% of the vote in the district.
— Max Cohen
THE CAMPAIGN
News: The National Association of Manufacturers is launching a new series of tax ads featuring manufacturing workers in Michigan. The ads, which are running nationwide, press Congress to extend the 2017 Trump tax cuts. They make the case that preserving the tax law is critical for manufacturing, jobs and GDP growth.
“If Congress doesn’t preserve tax reform, our momentum could stop,” a narrator says in one of the spots.
NAM is also part of a closed-door roundtable discussion today including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.), House Majority Whip Tom Emmer and manufacturers.
— Laura Weiss
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Presented by RED Coalition
You voted for American energy dominance—and the Trump Administration is delivering. From solar to oil & gas, they’re unleashing it all. More energy. More jobs. Higher wages. America is booming—because when we lead, we win.