The Archive

Incrementalism. What’s been striking so far in these nascent discussions is how narrow they are in scope. So far, there’s been no mention of an assault weapons ban and no real discussion of raising the minimum age to buy assault rifles. Typically in these situations, Democrats try to swing for the fences because that’s what their base demands. This time around, limiting the scope of the proposals under review has attracted a wide range of Republicans.

A different calculation by Republicans. Republicans have made a different calculation this time around. They realize that the Democrats are being reasonable, and if they don’t get into a room and negotiate, they’ll risk a political backlash. Not to mention, many GOP lawmakers – including Sens. Rick Scott (Fla.), Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Lindsey Graham (S.C.) – have been in favor of red flag laws. Scott signed a red flag law in Florida when he was governor, and both Rubio and Graham have offered red-flag proposals of their own. Of course, no one believes that red flag laws will stop every shooting. But Democrats and Republicans both acknowledge they’ll stop some. And in this moment of outrage, that’s enough. Plus, it’s important to note that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is supportive of these discussions right now. Without McConnell’s backing, nothing will happen.

The Senate has gotten used to gangs. Some of the biggest accomplishments achieved by this 50-50 Senate – and in recent years – have happened in gangs. We’re thinking about the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure law most recently. In fact, a lot of legislative action now occurs outside committees. This group of senators has had some success in the past, it could again.

The myth of the NRA. Newsflash – the NRA is not nearly the political powerhouse it once was, or that many Democrats claim it is. Sure, the NRA raises and gives out money. The NRA has been buffeted by internal controversy for years, and other gun-rights organizations, such as the Gun Owners of America, are increasingly prominent. The last time the Senate passed a gun-reform proposal in 2018 – Fix NICS – the NRA lobbied hard against it and lost.

Shock value. The sense we get from lawmakers is that the back-to-back shootings in Buffalo and Uvalde have shaken a lot of lawmakers to the core – Republicans included. Gun violence has surged nationally during the last few years, including mass shootings. There’s only so much indifference that is acceptable, even on Capitol Hill.

Republicans are Second Amendment absolutists. As we noted on Thursday, the reality is that there are at least 35 Senate Republicans who’ll never sign onto a gun control proposal, no matter how moderate or reasonable it is. The pool of potential GOP votes is just not that big. And on Capitol Hill, sentiment is quick to spread. If the Senate GOP leadership decides that an emerging agreement is weak or politically risky, they’ll let their rank and file know that they’re not going to support it – and those lawmakers will get the message quickly. That kind of pressure is very difficult to resist.

2A groups will organize. While the NRA’s power is overrated, they do have some influence. And other pro-gun rights like GOA will mobilize and flood Senate offices with phone calls, letters and emails from constituents in opposition to any gun bill. The online gun-rights movement is extremely vigilant, and they’re very, very vocal on social media. If Republicans feel as if they don’t have the political space to cut a deal, they won’t.

Time. This is probably the biggest concern for Murphy and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer: The Senate is in recess for the next 10 days. Sure, lawmakers will stay in touch and staff will trade paper. But the fact that senators are going home for more than a week is a huge challenge. The more time goes by, the harder it will be to do a deal. The sense of urgency, of crisis, may be the most important factor in persuading senators to act on such a controversial issue.

It’s an election year. It sounds crass, but Republicans will come under pressure not to reach a bipartisan agreement with control of Congress at stake in just over five months. Conservative media outlets are already running through a parade of stories on school security or mental health, not guns, being the issue in the Uvalde and Buffalo massacres. Some in the GOP are saying they need to keep the focus on economic issues, where they have a huge advantage. There will be warnings that pro-gun rights voters will stay home if Republican leaders cut a gun deal.

The inertia of inaction. Let’s be honest: Congress is really good at doing nothing. If you were to gamble on Congress, bet against them and you’ll win more than 95% of the time. It’s difficult to do big things, it’s difficult to do little things. It’s difficult to do anything these days, in fact.