Is it too little, too late for GOP?

IN THIS EDITION

Is Trump’s affordability ‘pivot’ enough?

Hegseth’s Hill gauntlet

Primary day in Nebraska and West Virginia

Problem Solvers back Dignity Act

What we’re watching

THE TOP

Is Trump’s affordability ‘pivot’ enough?

Happy Tuesday morning.

Republican politics today are a little like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.

President Donald Trump is finally putting his weight behind legislation aimed at bringing down the sky-high cost of living, calling for a gas tax holiday and urging the House to pass the Senate’s long-stalled affordable housing bill.

Yet Trump’s policies are — in part — why prices are so high, including the war with Iran and wave after wave of tariffs. That’s the Hyde part.

The president’s new efforts could be too little, too late for the GOP, especially as the White House is creating self-inflicted wounds for vulnerable Republicans. This includes the controversial push for $1 billion in security funding for Trump’s East Wing ballroom project.

“If I’m in the Democratic marketing department, I’m probably thinking of a lot of ways I would use this to target senators that vote for it,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who’s not running for reelection. “Even if you can get past the policy and justify it, the timing and optics are really bad.”

Political problems. Senate Majority Leader John Thune was defensive Monday at the suggestion that the GOP hasn’t done enough to address affordability. Thune insisted the tax benefits of the One Big Beautiful Bill haven’t yet been fully realized. Speaker Mike Johnson sings this tune, too.

But since the big OBBB show on July 4th last year, Republicans have spent months fighting over affordability measures with little to show for it. Senate-House GOP tensions over the most recent DHS shutdown further exacerbated them.

Some Republicans are fed up with the inaction. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said Trump has had a bunch of ideas to address affordability but bemoaned the fact that the Republican-run Congress has “done approximately nothing” in response.

“I think we’ve done one thing — housing. Kind of,” said Hawley, who released a gas tax holiday bill. “So I think we need to do more.”

The Senate is now in play for Democrats in November, and the most vulnerable Republicans — Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Dan Sullivan (Alaska) and Jon Husted (Ohio) — are being forced to answer questions over Trump’s ballroom. Democrats are salivating at the chance to put them on the record.

“I think the narrative around that needs to shift,” Thune said bluntly of the East Wing security funding. “For sure, the Dems will try to make a political issue out of it. But substantively, there’s a really compelling argument.”

This group of at-risk Republicans in both chambers has taken a beating over the past year.

1) Vulnerable House Republicans begged their colleagues to extend the enhanced premium tax credits for Obamacare that expired at the end of 2025. The effort died in the Senate.

2) The GOP has been totally stuck on affordable housing legislation, and it’s far from certain that Trump’s call for House passage of the Senate bill will actually have any impact. The House’s opposition to the Senate’s package is intense.

3) Gas prices have soared since the start of Trump’s war with Iran. The national average is $4.50 per gallon. The push for a gas tax holiday shows that Republicans know they have a serious political problem on their hands.

Trump said Monday that the ceasefire with Iran is on “massive life support.” Renewed fighting could push gas prices even higher — and force some Republicans to join Democrats in backing war powers resolutions as soon as this week.

A gas tax holiday could provide some political relief for Republicans, but it won’t fix the underlying problem. Democrats would have to be willing to go along with it as well. Thune sounded skeptical Monday but said Republicans would “hear [Trump] out” on it.

The ballroom factor. Against this backdrop of soaring costs comes the White House’s push for $1 billion in security funding in the Republican-only reconciliation bill to fund ICE and Border Patrol. Secret Service Director Sean Curran is scheduled to pitch Senate Republicans on the request at their lunch meeting today.

To vulnerable House and Senate Republicans, the funding is a political disaster. To them, this is all part of Trump spending too much time on vanity projects and foreign wars and not enough on economic issues.

Trump is trying to shell out cash to repaint the Eisenhower Executive Office Building and resurface the Reflecting Pool by the Lincoln Memorial. Trump plans to host thousands of spectators on the White House lawn for a UFC fight. There will be an IndyCar race down Pennsylvania Avenue. Trump is talking about building a giant arch near Arlington National Cemetery and turning D.C.’s humble public golf courses into championship resorts. None of this helps with soaring electricity bills or gas prices.

It’s possible that, for once, vulnerable Republicans say enough is enough and reject the ballroom security funding during the Senate’s vote-a-rama. It could also fall out in the Byrd Bath, saving Republicans from a messy fight.

Beyond that, vulnerable Republicans are sick of voting for reconciliation bills that Democrats can easily use against them.

Specifically earmarking the $1 billion for East Wing security was, to many Republicans, a political own-goal. Republicans could have simply written the provision to provide $1 billion for the Secret Service without further explanation. Securing the ballroom “has to be done anyway,” Thune acknowledged.

Collins, the appropriations chair, was noncommittal Monday, noting Trump has said private donors will fund the ballroom.

“I’m for the private funding sources,” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) added.

— Laura Weiss, Andrew Desiderio and Brendan Pedersen

News about Punchbowl News. We’re thrilled to announce that Catherine Leffert has joined our ranks as a tax and trade reporter on Team Vault. She comes to Punchbowl News from American Banker. Catherine replaces Laura Weiss, Team Vault’s founding member, who is now covering the Senate.

NEXT WEEK: We’re sitting down with Reps. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.) and Paul Tonko (D-N.Y.) on May 20 at 9 a.m. ET. to discuss the news of the day, the importance of early and accurate dementia diagnosis and their work on the Alzheimer’s Screening and Prevention (ASAP) Act. We’ll also be joined by Joanne Pike, president and CEO of the Alzheimer’s Association, for a fireside chat. RSVP here!

DEFENSE

Hegseth’s Hill gauntlet

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is walking into a changed Capitol Hill arena than the one he faced just two weeks ago.

Now, the U.S. war with Iran is “terminated” (at least according to President Donald Trump), the Pentagon is drawing down American forces from Germany and congressional frustration is growing over the slow release of Ukraine aid.

The Iran declaration, which is sure to face open skepticism amid the tenuous state of the ceasefire, underscores the urgency over when the Pentagon will formally seek funding to cover the conflict.

House and Senate appropriators will have a chance to press Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Dan Caine on the timing and need for that package on Tuesday.

Acting Pentagon Comptroller Jay Hurst said two weeks ago that DOD plans to send a supplemental to Congress once it has a full assessment of the Iran war costs, which at the time were around $25 billion. The White House tells us a supplemental request isn’t imminent.

“We’re working on it,” Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), a senior appropriator, said of an Iran supplemental. “They still need the money just for what they spent on the war.”

But time is short, and every day the White House and Pentagon wait to submit a request puts pressure on the already tight congressional calendar. Lawmakers continue to say they’ve heard little detail from the administration about the supplemental request. A final package will almost certainly include money to refill munitions stocks, cover operational expenses and repair U.S. bases damaged by Iranian attacks.

But the Trump administration has hinted that it could reconsider its long-term force posture in the region, raising questions about how much money officials will seek to repair damaged facilities. Appropriators haven’t received any information on DOD’s basing plans, a senior Senate GOP aide said Monday.

Democrats aren’t holding their breath for real answers to the cost of the war.

“He’s there to put on a performance for the leader,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said of Hegseth and Trump.

Spotlight on Europe. Lawmakers from both parties will almost certainly press Hegseth on the status of $400 million in aid for Ukraine, funding that the Trump administration has slow-walked in releasing.

The FY2027 budget request doesn’t include additional defense support for Kyiv or the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The initiatives were a big priority for appropriators last year.

The absence of funds will be a focus for Sen. Chris Coons (Del.), top Democrat on the Defense Appropriations panel. Coons demanded to know why Hegseth “again submitted a budget that cuts all support” to those nations.

Look for lawmakers to press for answers about the administration’s decision to remove 5,000 troops from Germany as well, a move that’s drawn bipartisan criticism and happened just days after Hegseth’s last Hill appearance.

— Briana Reilly and Anthony Adragna

THE CAMPAIGN

Primary day in Nebraska and West Virginia

Happy primary day to voters in Nebraska and West Virginia. Here’s what we’re watching.

Who will come out on top in Nebraska’s 2nd District?

Democrat Denise Powell and state Sen. John Cavanaugh are locked in an increasingly nasty primary to succeed retiring Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.). This district is a prime flip opportunity for Democrats. Former Vice President Kamala Harris carried the seat in 2024.

This race exposes several major fault lines in 2026 Democratic primaries: Israel-Gaza politics, mysteriously funded super PACs and the moderate-vs.-progressive divide. It even includes a debate over whether a Cavanaugh win could lead to a mid-decade redistricting and a change to the state’s winner-take-all Electoral College system.

Progressives are lining up behind Cavanaugh, a state senator who’s backed by the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC. Moderates are behind Powell, a small business owner who’s benefited from outside spending by groups affiliated with the New Democrat Coalition and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.

More than $6 million has been spent in the primary. The Republican candidate is Omaha City Councilmember Brinker Harding.

Will an Osborn ally notch a victory in the Nebraska Senate Democratic primary?

Independent Dan Osborn, who ran a close race against Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) last cycle, is back again to challenge Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.). For Osborn to have a chance, he needs the winner of the Nebraska Senate Democratic primary to drop out.

One candidate — Cindy Burbank — has pledged to exit the race if she wins the primary. The Nebraska Democratic Party is lining up behind Osborn and wants Burbank to win the primary. The GOP tried to kick Burbank off the ballot, but she was reinstated.

Another Democratic candidate, William Forbes, is accused by Democrats of being a GOP plant who will try to siphon votes away from Osborn.

How much does Capito win by?

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) is heavily favored to win her primary. Capito, who is endorsed by President Donald Trump, faces five challengers. The most serious of those opponents is state Sen. Tom Willis.

— Max Cohen and Ally Mutnick

IMMIGRATION

Problem Solvers back Dignity Act

News: The Problem Solvers Caucus is endorsing the Dignity Act, a bipartisan immigration proposal that has divided House Republicans.

It’s the first time the centrist group has backed the bill under President Donald Trump. The legislation from Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) would create a pathway to legal status for undocumented immigrants who have been living in the United States, boost border security and reform asylum-seeker processes.

The Problem Solvers Caucus says the bill would make the immigration system “more secure, orderly, and fair” and reduce the national debt.

Salazar said in a statement that the Problem Solvers’ endorsement “marks a major step forward and reflects a shared commitment to practical, bipartisan solutions.”

The group — co-led by Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) — includes dozens of centrist House members on both sides of the aisle.

Some of these Republicans have also been pushing for changes at ICE after federal agents shot and killed two people in Minneapolis earlier this year. But they won’t get any of those reforms in the GOP reconciliation bill that funds ICE and CBP. These moderate Republicans are desperate for bipartisan accomplishments.

Meanwhile, House GOP hardliners have been railing against the Dignity Act. The House Freedom Caucus has bashed it and said the proposal “must die in the cradle” and “undermines the agenda the American people want.”

— Laura Weiss

📆

What we’re watching

House. The House will vote this evening on suspensions.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Dan Caine will testify before the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee at 8 a.m.

Hung Cao makes his first visit to Capitol Hill since being named acting Navy secretary at 2 p.m. before the Appropriations Defense Subcommittee. Cao took over after the sudden dismissal of former Navy Secretary John Phelan last month.

House Oversight Democrats have a field hearing in Palm Beach, Fla., as part of their Jeffrey Epstein investigation.

Senate. The Senate will vote on confirming Kevin Warsh to the Federal Reserve Board and then take an initial procedural vote on Warsh’s post as chair.

Both parties have their weekly lunches, followed by leadership news conferences in the afternoon. Secret Service Director Sean Curran is slated to attend Senate Republicans’ lunch to pitch reconciliation funding for securing the White House ballroom project.

Hegseth and Caine are scheduled to testify before the Senate Defense Appropriations Subcommittee at 10:30 a.m. Appropriators will also hear from FBI Director Kash Patel at 2 p.m.

The Senate Armed Services Committee hears from Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and acting Army Chief of Staff Gen. Christopher LaNeve. Expect lots of questions about the controversial firing of LaNeve’s well-respected predecessor, retired Gen. Randy George.

Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) are pushing kids’ online safety legislation at an 11:45 a.m. event.

Washington. President Donald Trump is participating in an 11 a.m. print interview before departing for China.

— Anthony Adragna and Laura Weiss

… AND THERE’S MORE

The Supreme Court vacated a lower court ruling on Monday requiring Alabama’s congressional map to include two Black majority districts. That gives Alabama Republicans the green light they needed to redraw following the Callais ruling.

Alabama GOP Gov. Kay Ivey has said the state will revert to its 2023 map if the Supreme Court rules in its favor. That configuration would create one majority-Black district and erase a second held by Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures. But Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall quickly called for a more aggressive 7R-0D map. We’ll see what happens in the coming days.

Endorsement flop. Veteran Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.) lost the Connecticut Democratic Party endorsement Monday night to former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin. This is a big upset ahead of the Aug. 11 primary.

On the airwaves. BDA PAC, a political arm of the Blue Dog Coalition, is out with a new TV ad boosting Democrat Johnny Garcia in the May 26 primary runoff for Texas’ 35th District. The spot touts Garcia’s background and notes his opponent, Maureen Galindo, called union workers “bootlickers.”

Joe Baldacci’s campaign in Maine’s 2nd District is running a $30,500 ad buy in the Bangor, Maine, media market. Baldacci says he’s the right Democrat to defeat GOP candidate Paul LePage and that he is running to end President Donald Trump’s wars.

In the Democratic primary for Colorado’s 8th District, former state Rep. Shannon Bird is going negative on state Rep. Manny Rutinel in a new $100,000 ad buy. The ad accuses Rutinel of voting for Medicaid budget cuts while voting to raise his own pay.

— Ally Mutnick, Max Cohen and Brendan Pedersen