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May 1, 2025
Presented by UL Standards & Engagement
The bipartisan Setting Consumer Standards for Lithium-Ion Batteries Act will keep uncertified batteries off the market and out of homes — reducing the fire risk and preserving consumer access. It passed the House by an overwhelming majority. Now it’s the Senate’s turn to make a smart decision to protect Americans.
THE TOP
The House’s reconciliation problems
Happy Thursday morning. And Happy May. Get ready for some very dumb NSYNC jokes.
All year, top House and Senate Republicans have been in punt formation.
What would Medicaid cuts look like under President Donald Trump’s reconciliation package? Punt. How would House GOP leaders get $880 billion in savings from the House Energy and Commerce Committee? We’ll decide later. How about scrapping clean energy tax credits? Need to get back to you. What will Republicans do about the nettlesome SALT cap? Let’s keep the conversation going.
It’s now May 1. Speaker Mike Johnson wants to pass the totality of Trump’s domestic policy agenda through the House in the next three weeks.
Yet House Republicans still haven’t made decisions on some of the biggest issues hanging over the massive reconciliation package. They’re still fighting over the basic contours of the trickiest tax cuts and spending reductions.
The disagreements impact nearly every House committee. The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee scrapped a $20 fee on automobiles following a backlash. The House Judiciary Committee reversed plans to shift antitrust enforcement away from the Federal Trade Commission.
More importantly, the House Ways and Means Committee won’t even publicly commit to a date to mark up the $4.5 trillion tax title of the reconciliation package, although we’re told May 8 is the target date.
“We’re working through each of the final issues, and it’s coming down the wire because four committees have already produced their bills, and we’re on track,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said in an interview.
Now let’s review some of the most serious conflicts that Republicans are trying to resolve.
SALT. Johnson met Wednesday afternoon with Republicans who are demanding the $10,000 SALT cap get lifted as part of reconciliation. Johnson said he was seeking “final feedback” before GOP tax writers lock in a new deduction cap.
That’s a nice thought. But in reality, the conversations aren’t close to being finalized. Members of the SALT Caucus reiterated that lifting the cap is a red line for them
“It was a lively discussion,” Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) said following the meeting. “We’re still far away from being done.”
Several SALT lawmakers insisted during that session that increasing the cap to $25,000 wouldn’t suffice, although they’ve said this for weeks. A handful of members tossed out different cap numbers, mainly as examples of the relief they’re pushing for rather than tangible offers.
There are also divisions within the SALT group, on both the cap number and the marriage penalty. Currently, the $10,000 cap applies to all tax filers, so married couples are worse off.
These New Yorkers are not going to fold easily. Lifting this cap is a political imperative for members like Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and LaLota. And Republicans are nowhere in these negotiations.
Medicaid. GOP moderates concerned about the potential for deep Medicaid cuts met with House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) on Wednesday. Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) said afterward they’re “making progress.”
Vulnerable Republicans have been pushing Energy and Commerce to back off of several Medicaid proposals, saying the proposed cuts go too far. While Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) said many of his concerns have been resolved, Medicaid per capita caps remains as one outstanding problem.
And Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) is sticking to his red line of only supporting $500 billion in Medicaid cuts. That number would include work requirements and eligibility checks, Bacon told reporters.
“For them to do any more, they’re going to have to prove it doesn’t hurt people’s health care or hospitals,” Bacon said.
Energy and Commerce is set to markup on May 7. The panel’s Republicans will meet again Thursday morning.
SNAP. The House Agriculture Committee and the White House are hashing out what to do about SNAP. The panel is tasked with finding $230 billion in cuts.
The committee wants to know what feedback the Trump administration has on SNAP policies before fully backing a proposal. The big issue is how to avoid cutting benefits — which Chair GT Thompson (R-Pa.) has said he won’t do — as well as the cost-sharing proposal that many members don’t like.
Bacon has an easy answer to this problem: reduce the scale of cuts GOP leaders want from the food stamps program.
“They need to lower the $230 [billion] to $100 [billion],” Bacon said.
Cost-sharing is Thompson’s preferred choice, at least if it’s that or slashing nutrition benefits. Thompson doesn’t want to see any rollbacks to the Thrifty Food Plan.
Yet cost-sharing causes problems for some members. Bacon opposes it, saying it would hurt Nebraska. Thompson acknowledges the White House isn’t a fan of that approach either.
Top Trump administration officials say they want the House and Senate to finish all action on reconciliation by July 4th. At this point, it’s hard to see that happening.
– Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan, Samantha Handler and Laura Weiss
KEYSTONE STATE
Dems make Pennsylvania midterm’s ground zero
House Democrats are making an aggressive play in their push for the majority, targeting key Pennsylvania seats with early investments and recruiting former members to help.
Democrats are hoping to flip four seats in the Keystone State now held by GOP Reps. Rob Bresnahan, Ryan Mackenzie, Scott Perry and Brian Fitzpatrick.
Democrats are only three seats away from the House majority and headed into a midterm cycle that historically favors the minority party. Winning big in Pennsylvania could put them back in power.
The playbook: Former Democratic Reps. Matt Cartwright and Susan Wild are working behind the scenes to help win their old districts, according to several members of the state’s delegation.
Wild doesn’t plan to run again. Instead, she’s pitching in with candidate recruitment.
But Cartwright is eyeing his old 8th District seat, making calls to Democrats in the delegation to express his interest. Cartwright also spoke at House Democrats’ annual retreat back in March.
It’s not a done deal that the six-term Democrat will run again. Bresnahan beat Cartwright by roughly 6,000 votes last November.
In an interview, Cartwright said he has “no news” right now. But Democrats in the delegation said Cartwright is targeting an early May announcement if he runs.
Meanwhile, Wild has been urging members to get behind former Sen. Bob Casey’s (D-Pa.) staffer Carol Obando-Derstine. Obando-Derstine is expected to launch her campaign today for the 7th District with Wild’s endorsement. Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure is also running for the seat.
Overcoming long odds: Democrats are also gunning for a rematch between Janelle Stelson and Perry, a conservative hardliner. Stelson is planning a summer campaign launch, according to multiple sources.
Perry won by fewer than two points last cycle in his toughest race yet. Stelson, a former local news anchor, has a strong name ID and fundraising, as well as experience from her last run. She has frequently gone after Perry on social media.
Perry’s alignment with President Donald Trump could turn off independent and moderate voters if Trump’s approval rating continues to sink.
Perry, though, brushed off those concerns Wednesday. “As usual, I’m focused on my mission here,” Perry said. “I’m doing my job.”
Despite winning by more than 12 points last cycle, Democratic operatives are also planning to invest more in Fitzpatrick’s 1st District seat in 2026. Pennsylvania Democrats view Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie as a more formidable challenger compared to past Democratic candidates.
On the airwaves: House Majority PAC is already pouring money into Pennsylvania battlegrounds.
The Democratic leadership-aligned super PAC went up with ads this month tying Bresnahan, Perry and Fitzpatrick to Trump’s tariffs. The ad also ran during a CNN town hall featuring Mackenzie.
Another ad targeting Mackenzie ran in March linking him to Elon Musk and accusing the lawmaker of supporting tax cuts for billionaires. An additional ad buy accuses Mackenzie, Bresnahan and Perry of trying to slash Medicaid.
– Mica Soellner
The Vault: Republicans’ clean energy problem
Republicans are in for a high-stakes clash over how much to claw back from the hundreds of billions of dollars in clean energy credits that were part of Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act.
How much to slash from the climate package is one of the thorniest tax issues in the Republicans’ reconciliation package. Democrats had bet that the incentives would be too hard to unravel once they were in place, especially because many now benefit red states and districts. For some in the GOP, that’s ringing true.
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Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) told us that Republicans looking to dash all the clean energy credits are being unrealistic. Tillis, who sits on the Senate Finance Committee, said Republicans can’t just repeal incentives without multiple years of notice given the capital that businesses have already deployed.
“I think all of them need to do their homework,” Tillis said of his IRA-loathing colleagues. “A wholesale end to those investment tax credits simply wouldn’t have the votes in the Senate.”
Tillis also said he supports maintaining transferability of the clean energy credits, noting the policy is part of businesses’ planning process.
Tillis was one of four GOP senators who signed a letter last month calling for the preservation of the IRA’s clean energy tax credits. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) led the effort. Sens. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) and John Curtis (R-Utah) also signed on.
Conservative opposition. The problem is that there are also Senate and House conservatives demanding a wholesale repeal of the IRA credits and the big pot of revenue that comes with it.
“I want a simple and rational tax code,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said. “I think we do a terrible job of trying to socially or economically engineer through the tax code.”
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) is the lead House agitator on cutting green energy credits from the IRA.
The GOP leadership view: The clean energy credit factions are just one of the Republican leadership’s challenges for rushing to pass a reconciliation bill by July 4.
“There’s probably going to have to be some discussion and negotiation about which of those [clean energy] provisions are things that some of our members have to have,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told us.
In one sign of how challenging full repeal would be, Thune acknowledged there’s broad support among Republicans in both chambers for maintaining tax credits benefitting the biofuels sector.
That’s a huge issue for a lot of midwestern Republicans with corn and soybean farmers back home. House members from midwestern states have fought to preserve the incentives before.
— Laura Weiss and Andrew Desiderio
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Jordan pledges to try again on FTC antitrust powers
House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) said he still wants to strip the Federal Trade Commission of its antitrust authority despite abandoning the idea as part of Republicans’ reconciliation bill.
We reported Wednesday that key senators were concerned the policy would run afoul of the chamber’s arcane reconciliation rules. They require that any section of a filibuster-proof reconciliation bill be limited to provisions that primarily affect spending and revenue levels.
Jordan cited our report in an interview as the reason he decided to strip the FTC proposal from his committee’s reconciliation package.
“We don’t want to do anything that could maybe make it more difficult to get the one big beautiful bill done,” Jordan said.
Jordan insisted he’s not giving up, though.
“We’ll just do it in a standalone bill,” he said, noting the Judiciary Committee advanced a version of the measure last year. The bill didn’t get a floor vote.
An about face. The provision would have moved the FTC’s antitrust enforcement powers over to the Justice Department, which also polices violations of competition laws.
Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) told us he wasn’t confident the Senate parliamentarian would rule that the proposal was kosher. Lee is the leading congressional advocate of moving the FTC’s antitrust authorities to Justice.
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) was also skeptical of including the policy in a reconciliation bill even though he said he’s generally open to streamlining antitrust enforcement.
Following our report, Jordan introduced an amendment to strip the FTC section from his panel’s reconciliation package.
— Diego Areas Munhoz and Ben Brody
THE CAMPAIGN
Scoop: Democratic strategists Mark Armour and Orrin Evans are launching Armour Evans, a new admaking firm. Both Armour and Evans have decades of campaign experience and backgrounds in California politics. Evans recently steered media strategy for some of the most competitive House Democratic campaigns in 2024, while Armour is a former ad agency creative director with political and corporate experience.
Senate endorsement: Former Rep. Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) is endorsing Rep. Chris Pappas’ (D-N.H.) Senate run, the latest sign of Pappas consolidating Democratic support in the Granite State.
New ad campaign: Republicans for Ukraine, a pro-Ukraine group that amplifies conservative voices, is releasing 60 first-person testimonials from Republican voters making the case for sustained assistance to Ukraine. Check out the group’s compilation video here.
— Max Cohen
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Presented by UL Standards & Engagement
E-bike fires are happening across the country, costing lives and forcing families out of their homes. The Senate can help stop these fires and protect Americans. The bipartisan Setting Consumer Standards for Lithium-Ion Batteries Act will keep uncertified batteries off the market, reducing the risk.