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THE TOP

Happy Friday morning.
Will a gun-control bill be enacted?
For the first time since negotiations began last week in the wake of several horrific mass shootings, there are serious doubts that a deal can be reached by Sens. Chris Murphy (Conn.) and John Cornyn (Texas), the lead Democratic and GOP negotiators on the package.
Republicans insist Democrats must move in their direction on the so-called “boyfriend loophole,” a provision that bars domestic abusers from getting guns. Republicans want to make sure claims from long dormant relationships don’t impact the ability of someone to buy a gun. Democrats want to broaden the language.
There are also unresolved issues over the red-flag provisions, although senators familiar with the matter believe those can still be closed out.
So will a deal happen? Is there enough trust possible in hyperpartisan, 50-50 Senate for an agreement on such a controversial topic to be finalized? And if so, when?
None of this is clear right now. Murphy and Cornyn announced a “framework” on a gun-control package last Sunday, which in itself was a milestone. Twenty senators publicly declared their support for the effort, including 10 Republicans, enough votes to overcome a GOP filibuster. Congress looked like it was ready to do something it hadn’t done in nearly three decades – pass significant gun-control legislation.
The challenge was turning the Murphy-Cornyn framework into actual legislative text that can pass, and so far, a breakthrough on that front has eluded the pair, who are also working with Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.).
Democrats privately aren’t convinced yet that Cornyn is willing to reach a final agreement. Democrats are eager to wrap up talks quickly – immediately – in order to get a bill moving toward the floor before the July 4 recess. If the negotiations drag on much beyond that, Democrats aren’t sure that it will ever happen. The urgency of now is very much on Democrats’ minds.
Republicans say the negotiations will continue, but caution that there’s no agreement yet. The GOP is not on the same timeline as Democrats. This is especially true for Cornyn. The internal Senate and Texas politics are complex for him, and Cornyn is a cautious guy anyway. He’s stepped out on a political ledge trying to cut this deal, and he won’t get rushed.
“We don’t have a deal about anything unless we have a deal about everything,” Cornyn told our friends Leigh Ann Caldwell at Washington Post and other reporters on Thursday afternoon. “I’m frustrated. I’m not as optimistic right now, but we’re continuing to work.”
Cornyn flew back to Texas Thursday evening, and the Senate doesn’t come back into session until Tuesday. The Texas Republican convention is in Houston this weekend, and Cornyn is scheduled to speak. We’ll be very interested to see his reception there.
Staffers for both sides are still holding discussions and drafting language on the topics where there has been agreement. That’s the easy part. Getting the final disputes resolved is the challenge.
Tillis cautioned not to read too much into Cornyn’s absence, as did Murphy.
“It means nothing but logistical commitments, and he has commitments back in Texas. But we’ve been Zooming and conference calling, and that’s worked well too.”
Here’s Murphy:
“We’ve defied the odds before, and we’ll defy the odds again… This has been an uphill climb for 30 years, but we’ll find a way to get this done… I just know we’ll find a path here. We’re close. We’ve been getting closer over the course of the last couple days.”
On an issue as weighty as this, there’s a thin line between judging whether something is a negotiating tactic or a real disagreement that will sink a legislative compromise. It’s difficult to see Republicans walking away from negotiations after they’ve put so much time and effort into it, but again, Cornyn would rather not agree to a deal than take one that’s seen as a “bad,” sources close to the Texas Republican said.
The Coverage
→ | NYT: “Gun Talks Snag on Tricky Question: What Counts as a Boyfriend?” by Emily Cochrane and Stephanie Lai |
→ | WSJ: “Gun Talks Stall on Red-Flag Laws, Domestic Abuser Rules,” by Natalie Andrews, Lindsay Wise and Teresa Mettela |
→ | AP: “GOP, Dem Senate bargainers divided over gun deal details,” by Alan Fram |
Programming note: We will only have an AM edition Monday because of Juneteenth.
– Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Max Cohen
PRESENTED BY AMERICAN INVESTMENT COUNCIL
Private equity partners with small businesses in every state across America. In fact, 74% of private equity investment went to companies with fewer than 500 employees last year. These investments support millions of jobs and help small businesses grow and create new opportunities in local communities. Learn more about private equity’s important role in supporting small businesses on Main Streets across the nation.
SCOTUS SECURITY
Warner, Hagerty searching for a way to pay for SCOTUS security upgrades
Sens. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) are quietly working to steer millions of dollars in emergency funding to the U.S. Marshals Service and Supreme Court Police to cover additional security costs incurred in guarding the justices and their families.
The justices have been given around-the-clock protection at home since the leak of a draft opinion that would overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade abortion ruling spurred a national uproar. An armed man arrested near Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s home has been charged with attempted murder. A security fence has now been erected around the entire perimeter of the Supreme Court, and the police presence in those blocks has been ramped up dramatically.
The pair of senators has found a legislative vehicle that can be used to provide $10.3 million to the Marshals Service and $9.1 million to the Supreme Court Police to help defray these added costs while Congress considers the full annual spending bill.
Using H.R. 4346 – the House-passed FY 2022 legislative branch spending bill – as a vehicle, the Senate could get around the so-called “blue slip issue” that requires spending bills originate in the House. This bill passed the House last year but was never voted on by the Senate.
Warner and Hagerty aren’t specifying how the money will be spent, but instead are leaving that to the Supreme Court Police and U.S. Marshals Service.
The Democratic and Republican leadership have “hotlined” the issue to see if there’s opposition. We should know more next week.
The House and Senate both passed legislation to provide more security to families of Supreme Court justices.
Here’s the bill that’s being circulated by Hagerty and Warner.
– Jake Sherman
THE INTERVIEW
AP nabs a Biden interview
President Joe Biden has been criticized relentlessly by the White House press corps for not doing enough interviews with reporters, especially print reporters. It’s a fair criticism. Biden does way fewer interviewers than his predecessor – although that’s not really a good measuring stick.
AP’s Josh Boak, who many of us worked with at Politico eons ago, snagged a Biden interview.
The top headline from the interview was that Biden insisted a recession was “not inevitable” despite the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to counter soaring inflation. Biden strongly denied that his push to boost federal spending to deal with the economic downtown caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, claiming there was “Zero evidence of that.”
We also thought this excerpt was interesting. It features Biden talking about reconciliation.
On reconciliation
AP: I guess one of the reasons I ask is you did something revolutionary on child poverty, and you know it, with the child tax credit, an idea that came in part from Newt Gingrich back in the day, [the] Contract With America. And a lot of families had hope from that. They moved out of public housing… And then last year, they learned that their incomes were effectively going down… And so when you present your agenda to the public, the reason why I’m asking if you have the votes is because people really want to know.
BIDEN: Sure they want to know. And on that [the] answer is no. Not one single Republican, not one, not one, would vote to extend it. We’re 50/50 and we lost one Democratic vote. So I am one vote short on that piece. But for example, I’m going to be able to get, God willing, the ability to pay for prescription drugs. There’s more than one way to bring down the cost for working folks. Gasoline may be up to $5 a gallon, but somebody who has a child with stage two diabetes is paying up to thousand bucks a month for their insulin.
We can reduce it to 35 bucks a month and get it done. We have the votes to do it. We’re gonna get that done. That kinda thing. I can’t get it all done…
And do I have the votes? I believe I have the votes to do a number of things. One, prescription drugs. Reduce utility bills by providing for, I think, we’ll be able to get the ability to have the tax incentive for winterization, which would, they estimate, bring down the average bill for the family, normal home, 500 bucks a year.
I think we would be able, we’re gonna get another $57 billion for semiconductors, so we don’t have the supply chain problems we had before, keeping down the cost of vehicles. I think we’re going to be in a situation — I know we are — where we’re going to reduce a person’s average internet bill by 30 bucks a month, because we have the money through the infrastructure bill to provide internet across country.
I think we’re going to be able to have a fair tax system, to have the votes, it’s going to be close, to have a minimum tax on corporations of 15%… The idea that a billionaire is paying 8% of the income and a teacher is paying 22%. I think we’re going to be able to get tax increases on the super wealthy. Not a lot. Not a lot. I’m a capitalist. You should be able to (inaudible). For God’s sake, pay your fair share. Just pay — pay a piece of what you owe. And I think we’re gonna be able to do those kinds of things.”
Here is the full transcript.
Biden clearly wants to use reconciliation for a prescription drug package and a minimum corporate tax. He huddled with Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on reconciliation this week, and Pelosi told reporters that “It’s alive.”
We’re sure there’s much more, but this is in line with what Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has been talking about during his own discussions with Schumer.
– Jake Sherman
PRESENTED BY AMERICAN INVESTMENT COUNCIL

Small businesses are the backbone of the American economy. Private equity invested more than $1 TRILLION into local communities last year.
THE CAMPAIGN
→ | We’ve seen a lot of Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) of late during the Jan. 6 hearings. But here’s how voters in Wyoming are seeing her in a new 60-second ad. Cheney’s second ad is all about her fighting for an increase in federal firefighter pay. Cheney, of course, is facing the Donald Trump-backed Harriet Hageman in a GOP primary. The primary is Aug. 16. |
– Jake Sherman
MOMENTS
7:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.
8:30 a.m.: Biden will host the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate.
11 a.m.: Biden and First Lady Jill Biden will leave for Rehoboth Beach, Del., where they will arrive at 11:55 a.m.
CLIP FILE
NYT
→ | “Fears Grow Over Iran’s Nuclear Program as Tehran Digs a New Tunnel Network,” by David Sanger, Julian Barnes and Ronen Bergman |
→ | News Analysis: “France and Germany Stand With Ukraine, and Putin Can Wait,” by Roger Cohen in Odessa, Ukraine |
“Sotomayor Says Supreme Court Can ‘Regain the Public’s Confidence,’” by Adam Liptak
→ | “Europe Offers Ukraine a Hope of Joining the E.U., but Not a Vast Arsenal,” by Andrew Kramer in Kyiv and Michael Levenson in New York |
WaPo
→ | “Congressional covid funding deal appears ‘dead’ after GOP criticism,” by Dan Diamond |
WSJ
→ | “Stock Futures Rise as Volatile Trading Persists,” by Caitlin Ostroff |
→ | “U.S. Secretly Reviews Israel’s Plans for Strikes Against Iranian Targets in Syria,” by Michael Gordon |
Bloomberg
→ | “China’s Newest Aircraft Carrier Shows Xi Jinping Catching Up With US,” by Kari Soo Lindberg and Jing Li |
LA Times
→ | “Inside the MAGA world scramble to produce findings suggesting the 2020 election was stolen,” by Sarah D. Wire |
PRESENTED BY AMERICAN INVESTMENT COUNCIL
From big cities to small towns, private equity continues to invest all across America. In 2021, private equity firms invested over $1 TRILLION into local communities to build better businesses and support jobs.
Three-quarters (74%) of private equity investment in 2021 went to companies with fewer than 500 employees. More than half (56%) went to the smallest businesses, those employing fewer than 100 people.
Private equity provides local business leaders with the capital, resources, and expertise to scale their ideas and help their businesses flourish.
Learn more at InvestmentCouncil.Org
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy AdImpact.

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Visit the archiveOur newest editorial project, in partnership with Google, explores how AI is advancing sectors across the U.S. economy and government through a four-part series.
Check out our second feature focused on AI and cybersecurity with Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.).