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Happy Friday morning.

For the first time in nearly 30 years, Congress is taking a major step forward on gun control.

The Senate passed the bipartisan gun bill last night by a vote of 65-33, with 15 Republicans crossing the aisle to vote with all 50 Democrats.

This legislation includes enhanced background checks for younger gun buyers, as well as federal assistance in helping states set up red flag laws. There are billions of dollars in new federal mental health funding, tougher penalties on “straw purchasers” and gun trafficking, and additional requirements on who needs to get a federal firearms license to sell guns.

The House will take the 80-page package this morning. The Rules Committee, which sets the parameters for floor debate, has scheduled a meeting for 7 a.m. Based on our estimates, this should put final passage around noon.

Democrats have a 220-210 margin in the House, meaning they can lose four votes and still pass the bill.

We expect the vast majority of House Republicans will vote against this legislation, which was crafted by a bipartisan group led by Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and John Cornyn (R-Texas). Current estimates have between a half dozen and 15 Republicans voting for the measure.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Minority Whip Steve Scalise are both urging a no vote.

There was some drama among House Democrats on Thursday over the Senate measure, specifically over expanding penalties for gun trafficking and illegal “straw purchases” of weapons.

Reps. Bobby Scott (D-Va.) and Cori Bush (D-Mo.) – pointing to concerns raised by civil rights including the ACLU – raised the issue of whether the legislation expanded federal crimes covered by the death penalty.

The Congressional Black Caucus had an emergency meeting to discuss the legislation, according to multiple Democratic sources.

Scott and Bush may offer an amendment this morning in the Rules Committee, although there’s almost no chance this will be accepted. If the House amended the Murphy-Cornyn bill, it would have to be sent back to the Senate, and that could jeopardize the entire package.

Otherwise, there doesn’t seem to be any opposition from the CBC or progressives to the legislation. The package doesn’t go as far as Democrats want, of course, but Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), two leaders of the progressive movement nationally, voted for the bill.

So let’s dig deeper into Thursday night’s critical Senate vote. There are a number of interesting subplots worth looking at.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell joined Cornyn and thirteen other Republicans in voting for the measure. Without McConnell’s support, this deal would’ve never come together.

Yet Cornyn has the most on line politically and personally of any Republican who backed the measure (more on this in a minute).

The Texas Republican wants to be the GOP leader someday. He looked like a potential future leader in this case. Once he was committed to the deal – with McConnell’s critical backing – Cornyn made very clear where his line was. He lobbied other Republicans on this proposal, but he didn’t try to twist any arms, which would have been useless on this topic anyway. And because Cornyn is known for taking a hard line on gun rights in the past – including not making a deal with Murphy last summer on expanding background checks – he has credibility with his GOP colleagues. “If Cornyn says it’s a good deal, it’s a good deal” was the opinion of a number of Republicans who voted for the package.

The 70-year-old Cornyn is also dealing with the aftermath of the horrific massacre in Uvalde, Texas, his home state. Doing nothing, in his view, wasn’t an option.

But: Guns and gun rights are a touchstone for Republicans, especially in the South and West. And two of the “Three Johns” who also want to someday replace McConnnell voted no on this bill – Sens. John Thune of South Dakota and John Barrasso of Wyoming.

Barrasso, the number three Senate Republican, even offered a replacement bill that he drafted with Sen. Ted Cruz, Cornyn’s fellow Texas Republican. So there are some serious differences here.

The question may become for Cornyn whether this was a hinge moment, if you will, in his quest to reach the top rung of Senate GOP politics. Roughly 70 percent of Senate Republicans voted against the measure, putting Cornyn on the wrong side of a hugely emotional issue for a lot of lawmakers. We’ll see what the long-term fallout is for him.

Yet Cornyn showed that he could take on a tough issue for the party and deliver a compromise package. That’s also the hallmark of a party leader.

And let’s not overlook this fact: Two Republicans who are in cycle – Todd Young of Indiana and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska – voted for the measure.

Murkowski has cut her own path in the Senate, so this wasn’t shocking. But she has a primary in seven weeks against a GOP candidate backed by former President Donald Trump. The former president was angered by Murkowski’s vote to convict him during the Senate impeachment trial following the Jan. 6 insurrection.

Young was a surprise here. Especially since his fellow Indiana Republican Mike Braun voted no.

Young is a former Marine and NRSC chair. He cruised through last month’s Indiana GOP primary without an opponent, and he looks set to easily win reelection in solidly red Indiana – all without Trump’s endorsement.

Young issued a long statement explaining his vote. Here’s the most salient paragraph:

Reminder: The Supreme Court will issue more decisions today. A ruling on the Mississippi abortion case has yet to be released.

– John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman

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