The Archive

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

What Sununu told us

We were joined by New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu Tuesday for a conversation on small businesses coming out of the pandemic. Sununu, who is seen as a potential GOP presidential candidate in 2024, made a lot of news yesterday. We were also joined by New Hampshire-based small business owners Toutou Marsden and Tim Pipp afterwards in a fireside chat.

Here’s the full conversation.

ACA SUBSIDIES

Dem govs warn of catastrophe if ACA subsidies expire

More than a dozen Democratic governors wrote to congressional leaders this week, pleading with them to take action to extend the enhanced Obamacare subsidies that will expire at the end of this year – and warning of a disastrous fallout if Congress doesn’t.

If the subsidies aren’t extended, millions of Americans will be forced to pay dramatically increased health care premiums or risk losing their insurance altogether. And the notices announcing the significant cost increase will land in mailboxes in October, just weeks before the midterms.

Read the full letter here. And here’s a key excerpt:

This issue is front of mind for many Democrats, as we’ve written previously. So much so that Speaker Nancy Pelosi raised it in a recent meeting with President Joe Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.

Pelosi and other House Democratic leaders want to see the premiums extended in a party-line reconciliation bill being negotiated between Schumer and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). But Manchin told us Friday that he hasn’t even had discussions on addressing the subsidies in a reconciliation bill, sounding pretty skeptical that would happen.

“I understand the conditions that we have and the challenges people have and everything. That’s something that, you know, in a perfect world, you want to do everything you can do,” Manchin said. “But the bottom line is, we’re strained right now. It’s a big strain.”

– Heather Caygle

PUNCHBOWL NEWS IN NEW YORK!

We hosted a happy hour in New York City last night for partners and friends of Punchbowl News. It was wonderful connecting with our community and taking in a gorgeous view of the Empire State Building from the Spyglass Rooftop Bar in Midtown. Thanks to all who joined!

Raising a glass: Christine Anderson, Alex Katz, Matt Bucci, and Kelli Kahn of Blackstone, Glen Caplin of MLB, Kara Carscaden of Estée Lauder Companies, Scott Mulhauser of Bully Pulpit Interactive, Leigh Farris of Carlyle, Tony Fratto of Hamilton Place Strategies, Risa Heller of Risa Heller Communications, Joanna Rose and Catherine Johnson of Apollo, Jennifer Morris of Anheuser-Busch, Stephan Miller of Kivvit, Sarah Murphy and Zach Bishop of IBM, and Dana Yeganian of Global Strategy Group.

PRIMARY RECAP

Key takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries

The packed slate of primaries Tuesday made lots of news. Here are some results and our key takeaways.

It’s still former President Donald Trump’s Republican Party.

Trump went in hard to back freshman Freedom Caucus Rep. Mary Miller (R-Ill.) in her primary against Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Ill.). And despite Miller’s controversial comments at a Trump rally on the eve of the 15th District primary — Miller claimed she misspoke when she called Roe’s reversal a “victory for white life” — the first-term lawmakers unseated the more senior Davis.

It’s a humbling defeat for Davis, the top Republican on the House Administration Committee and a close ally of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. Davis is far from a moderate but has a reputation for dealmaking. He also supported a bipartisan commission to investigate the Jan. 6 insurrection.

Illinois progressives suffer setbacks in tough night.

In three key House primaries, progressive Democrats had the opportunity to knock off more moderate candidates. But high-profile progressives such as Rep. Marie Newman (D-Ill.) and Justice Democrats-backed Kina Collins lost last night.

Newman was crushed by Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) in the member-on-member primary in the 6th District. While the candidates shared largely similar policy positions, Newman diverted from Casten on her stance toward Israel. A critic of Israel, Newman notably voted against U.S. funding for Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system in 2021. As a result, Democratic Majority for Israel PAC spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in ads to support Casten. Newman also faced an ethics scandal surrounding her treatment of a former primary rival.

In Illinois’ 7th District, longtime incumbent Rep. Danny Davis (D-Ill.) narrowly defeated Collins, an anti-gun violence activist who drew national attention to the race. Davis’ win was far closer than the first matchup between the candidates in 2020.

One bright spot for progressives, however, appeared in the primary for Illinois’ 3rd District where progressive state Rep. Delia Ramirez beat Chicago Alderman Gilbert Villegas. Ramirez was backed by major national progressives such as Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), in addition to the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC. Ramirez and her allies attacked Villegas as a lobbyist in multiple TV ads.

Another Jackson is likely headed to Capitol Hill.

Jonathan Jackson, son of civil rights icon Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr., won the Democratic nomination in the crowded primary to replace the retiring Rep. Bobby Rush in Illinois’ 1st District. Jackson is the brother of former Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr., (D-Ill.), who went to prison for spending hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign funds on personal expenses. The 1st District has been represented by a Black lawmaker for nearly a century and is overwhelmingly Democratic.

Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) failed to avoid a runoff in the race to become Oklahoma’s newest senator.

Mullin advanced to a Aug. 23 primary runoff against former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon. The race to succeed retiring Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) attracted a host of candidates, including former EPA administrator Scott Pruitt and Inhofe’s former chief of staff Luke Holland. Mullin ran far ahead of the pack, but ended up a couple of percentage points short of clearing 50%.

It was a mixed night for Republican incumbents in Mississippi.

Incumbent GOP Rep. Michael Guest survived a challenge, while Rep. Steven Palazzo was unseated in two closely watched primary runoffs.

Guest beat retired Navy pilot Michael Cassidy in the 3rd District primary runoff. Cassidy had attacked Guest for voting to establish a bipartisan commission to investigate the Jan. 6 insurrection. A burst of funding from the House GOP leadership-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund PAC ripped Cassidy as a closet socialist.

Sheriff Mike Ezell knocked off Palazzo in the 4th District primary runoff. The incumbent faced question marks over a 2021 ethics investigation that found “substantial evidence” that Palazzo misspent campaign funds. Palazzo was a part of the gigantic GOP class of 2010.

Colorado Republicans achieved the first step in their long-shot bid to knock off Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.).

A relatively moderate businessman Joe O’Dea, who has expressed support for abortion rights, triumped over right-wing state Rep. Ron Hanks in the Colorado Senate GOP primary. Democratic PACs had spent millions of dollars in the GOP primary in an effort to elevate Hanks, who was perceived as an easier candidate for Bennet to face in November.

While Colorado is turning into a reliably blue state, some Republicans believe O’Dea is the right candidate to seize on voter dissatisfaction with the economy and pull off an upset.

Rep. Tom Suozzi’s gubernatorial gamble didn’t pay off.

New York Democrats were peeved when Suozzi ditched a competitive Long Island seat to mount a gubernatorial challenge against Gov. Kathy Hochul. Months later, all Suozzi has to show for his troubles is a third-place, sub-15% showing. The moderate Democrat tried to portray Hochul as soft on crime; it didn’t stick with voters.

Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) advanced from the Republican primary to face off against Hochul in November. This will be in an uphill battle in blue New York, but Zeldin was able to defeat fellow Republican Andrew Giuliani in a hard-fought win to get this far.

— Max Cohen and John Bresnahan

THE CAMPAIGN

In a new memo, RSLC leadership argues the impact of striking down Roe on the 2022 election is overblown. Most voters cite the economy and inflation as their top priority, the memo states — issue areas where Republicans claim to hold an advantage over Democrats. Check out the full memo here.

The memo is a good look at how Republicans are reacting to the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision. The RSLC is adamant that voters are still laser-focused on the economy; 37% of respondents said inflation/high cost of living was their top issue and 16% chose the economy in general.

The poll also found that 30% of likely voters said a candidate’s position on abortion is the “absolute most important issue to them.” 65% of respondents said other issues would determine who they would vote for in November. Another notable data point: just 21% of independents surveyed said abortion is “the absolute most important issue to them.”

Some more interesting nuggets from the poll:

Details on the methodology: 2,007 likely general election voters in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Maine, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Washington, and Wisconsin were polled via an online panel from June 25 to 26. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.19%.

— Max Cohen

MOMENTS

All times eastern

President Joe Biden is at the NATO summit in Madrid. He is attending the first session with other heads of state.

8:25 a.m.: Biden will attend a trilateral meeting with South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

9 a.m.: Biden will attend the second NATO session.

11:45 a.m.: Biden will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

1:05 p.m.: Biden will attend the Transatlantic Dinner at the Prado Museum.

2:45 p.m.: Vice President Kamala Harris will fly to San Francisco from D.C.

CLIP FILE

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