A big, beautiful bust

IN THIS EDITION

Is the Big, Beautiful Bill a political loser?

Mullin, House holdouts talk potential SALT compromise

Ohio Republicans weigh how ruthless to be in redistricting

Tech: What Dems said on Trump Mobile

THE TOP

Is the Big, Beautiful Bill a political loser?

Happy Thursday morning. We only have one edition today in honor of the Juneteenth federal holiday.

Republicans know they have a big, beautiful problem: The centerpiece of President Donald Trump’s agenda is polling like garbage.

Public surveys from this month paint a grim picture for the GOP’s most important legislative push of the 119th Congress.

A plurality of Americans oppose the GOP reconciliation bill, just 67% of Republicans support the package and 71% of independents have an unfavorable view of the effort. In other words, it’s not only Democrats that don’t like the bill. It’s independents and Republicans, too.

In case you aren’t great at math, this is bad.

And instead of spending all their time selling the bill publicly, Hill Republicans remain locked in an internal struggle over its particulars, with the stakes enormously high — both politically and policy wise.

A handful of conservatives — Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), along with Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) — are saying the bill, as currently written, is fatally flawed.

We also reported in Wednesday’s PM edition that Speaker Mike Johnson wasn’t kept in the loop about the drastic changes that Senate Republicans made to the Medicaid provider tax, a provision that could reduce funding for rural hospitals. Plus, SALT remains a huge hot spot for House and Senate Republicans. We’ll get into that further below.

This is an extraordinarily complex legislative package that will impact virtually every American if it becomes law. There could still be weeks of GOP infighting left, ending with no one totally in love with the final outcome.

The larger question for Trump and Hill Republicans is this: Is the One Big Beautiful Bill a replay of what Obamacare or Build Back Better was for Democrats? Is it a bill that’s so large, complex and all encompassing that it’s impossible to sell?

Top House Republicans worry right now that Democrats are beating them to the punch in defining what this bill does and doesn’t do.

“A messaging void is political death,” one House Republican aide told us.

Republicans’ challenge. That’s the scary reality for the GOP: Big, amorphous bills with lots of disparate policy particulars are oftentimes unpopular.

And Democrats are doing a good job branding the bill – a fact even most Republicans concede.

In a recent House Democratic Caucus meeting, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries presented slides that showed very stark numbers for Republicans.

The DCCC polled the popularity of a bill that cuts food stamps, Medicaid and tax credits for clean energy while increasing border security, extending the 2017 tax cuts and temporarily eliminating taxes on tips and overtime.

The internal survey, reported here for the first time, had 61% of respondents opposing the bill while 39% support it. Those numbers got even worse after Democrats branded the bill as a “devastating scheme that takes health care and food away from everyday Americans while giving huge tax breaks to billionaire donors.”

After hearing that Democratic framing, 66% opposed the bill while 34% support it.

Furthermore, Democrats see an ability to make inroads in rural communities by highlighting cuts to rural hospitals that rely on Medicaid.

“We are seeing public support for the bill cratering in real time with a clear argument that is incredibly persuasive to voters: instead of lowering costs, Republicans are cutting health care and food assistance to pay for billionaire tax giveaways,” DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said. “Simply put, this vote is going to be the defining contrast of the midterms.”

Trying for a turnaround. The NRCC and NRSC are practically begging their rank-and-file to go out and sell the popular provisions of the BBB package.

A recent poll of competitive seats showed that removing undocumented immigrants from Medicaid polled at 82%, taking dead people off Medicaid rolls polled at 86%, and the Republicans’ new Medicaid work requirements polls at 72%.

Another opportunity for Democrats: They’ll say that the GOP is cutting these popular programs to pay for tax cuts for the wealthy. That’s why you’ll hear Republicans talk a lot about Trump’s plan to nix taxes for tips and overtime.

White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair shared new polling data with Senate Republicans last week showing that individual parts of the bill — like no tax on tips and overtime pay — poll extremely well. Blair said Republicans should be going on offense to sell these specific tax provisions. Blair urged Republicans to lean into controversial Medicaid cuts by focusing on removing undocumented immigrants from the program.

The ad wars. Outside groups have clearly gotten the message. Two key political organizations associated with Trump and the House Republicans are spending nearly $16 million on TV this month to try to boost the popularity of the GOP reconciliation package.

The American Action Network, the non-profit associated with House Republican leadership, had $7 million on TV earlier this month trying to blunt the sting of huge cuts to Medicaid. AAN is currently on TV with a $4.2 million buy in 28 congressional districts about the tax benefits of the bill.

Securing America’s Greatness, a Trump-linked super PAC, has $4.7 million in ads on TV between now and the end of the month in 19 congressional districts nationally. Some ads are hitting Democrats for opposing the bill. Other spots thank House Republicans for voting for “working family tax cuts” and “ending free health care benefits for illegals.”

– Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan, Ally Mutnick and Anthony Cruz

June Events: Join us on Tuesday, June 24 at 9 a.m. ET for a conversation with Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.). Punchbowl News Founder and CEO Anna Palmer will sit down with Murphy to discuss the news of the day and the future of medicine. RSVP here!

THE AGENDA

Mullin, House holdouts talk potential SALT compromise

News: Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) and blue-state House Republicans discussed a potential SALT cap compromise on a call Wednesday as Senate GOP leaders try to settle key reconciliation hangups.

The conversation centered on the possibility of keeping the House bill’s $40,000 cap on deducting state-and-local taxes but restricting how many higher-income households can benefit, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.

This idea — lowering the income threshold for claiming the full deduction — would give SALT backers some political cover by maintaining the deduction cap. And it would cost significantly less, which would be a win for GOP senators.

But SALT backers didn’t negotiate with Mullin and no deal has been made, according to sources familiar with the call. Blue-staters remain dug in behind the House bill’s full SALT provision, which only limits deductions for households making more than $500,000 per year. Reps. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Young Kim (R-Calif.) and Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.) were on the call with Mullin.

The episode underscores the challenges Senate Republicans are facing as they try to get a bill on the floor by the middle of next week.

House SALT holdouts insist they’re not backing down. There’s a real political incentive for them to fight on the issue.

Some GOP senators want to jam the House with a watered-down provision and dare the SALT Caucus to tank the entire bill. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said that while a negotiation with the House is necessary, in the end “they’ll be given a binary choice… or they amend it.”

Mullin has been a key intermediary for leadership to try to help settle SALT, but his fellow Senate Republicans would still have to back any deal.

Medicaid changes: Senate GOP leaders are likely to add a stabilization fund for rural hospitals to the bill to win over the Medicaid holdouts. The fund would soften the blow for rural hospitals that would lose out on Medicaid funding because of the Senate bill’s provider tax crackdown.

Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) are discussing a plan that would mirror a Collins proposal from 2003. The Senate Finance Committee is also working on a proposal.

It’s unclear, however, if this would satisfy House opponents. Speaker Mike Johnson wasn’t consulted on the Senate’s harsher provider tax crackdown. His leadership team believes it can’t pass the House.

What comes next: Senate Republicans’ efforts to settle Medicaid and SALT hangups are meant to clear the way for a vote next week.

In addition to nailing down the votes, Senate Republicans have to clear procedural hurdles.

That means that despite the federal holiday, the “Byrd Bath” process is rolling on. The Commerce Committee provisions, including the hotly contested AI moratorium, are expected to be litigated today.

On Friday, aides from both parties will present their Byrd arguments to the parliamentarian for the Judiciary Committee’s legislative text.

GOP senators were told Wednesday that the Byrd process is about halfway done for the entire bill — though the Finance portion will be the most important and happen last.

Democrats are waging a relentless campaign to “Byrd out” as many of the bill’s provisions as they can. While most of their challenges won’t be successful, any small victory can help muck up the process for Republicans.

— Laura Weiss and Andrew Desiderio

THE MAP

Ohio Republicans weigh how ruthless to be in redistricting

How aggressive will Ohio Republicans get when drawing new lines for the state’s 15 congressional districts ahead of the midterms?

As the White House and GOP leaders seek any avenue to protect their slender House majority, a debate is raging over just how many Democratic incumbents to target in the Buckeye State.

The current GOP-drawn map has 10 Republicans and five Democrats. Ohio’s unusual redistricting laws mandate a redraw ahead of 2026 because the current map passed without bipartisan support.

In the 2022 cycle, the Ohio Supreme Court reined in the GOP legislature. Now Republicans control all but one seat on Ohio’s top court and the question is whether they’ll try to draw a map that could elect 12 or 13 Republicans.

The danger zone. The two Democrats on the chopping block are Reps. Marcy Kaptur in northwest Ohio’s 9th District and Emilia Sykes in the Akron-based 13th District.

Kaptur’s seat is already quite red, although she keeps winning it even as President Donald Trump does, too. Republicans’ biggest problem here is recruitment. There’s some chatter that Ohio Senate President Rob McColley could be interested in a bid, especially if his home in Henry County is added to the 9th District.

“It is no surprise national and state Republicans in Columbus are scheming to confuse and handpick voters by gerrymandering Ohio congressional districts again,” David Zavac, Kaptur’s political director, said in a statement.

Justin Barasky, a Sykes spokesperson, said in a statement “it’s no surprise that special interests in Washington and Columbus want to ignore the voters and rig the game.”

Sykes’ current district is competitive. To make the seat redder, Republicans would need to crack Akron’s Summit County and shift some of it to a neighboring district without endangering GOP Reps. Max Miller and Dave Joyce. This is doable and would create a map likely to elect 12 Republicans.

Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) told us he believes “we probably end up” with that 12-3 configuration and that it “reflects the state.”

“There’s a recognition that Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati, heavily Democrat cities, will probably be represented by Democrats,” Moreno said.

But some Republicans want to go farther, adopting a more heavy handed approach that endangers Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman in Cincinnati. This is a heavier lift but if successful could give Republicans 13 of the 15 seats.

Mapmakers will have to find a sweet spot that doesn’t endanger GOP Reps. Mike Turner or Mike Carey to the north of Landsman’s seat. Neither are in districts that are ruby red and the DCCC lists both as targets.

Timeline: Ohio Republicans will start these deliberations over the summer. They must deal with arcane rules about how many times a county can be split and in what fashion.

The legislature and the Ohio Redistricting Commission will likely kick the process back and forth to see if either can pass a map with enough bipartisan support. If this fails, then the legislature can pass a map with a simple majority, but must follow requirements about compactness.

In light of the White House push to force a new Texas map, it’s safe to imagine Trump’s team also wants Ohio Republicans to be aggressive. But just like in Texas, Republicans need to be careful not to spread their voters too thin and endanger incumbents.

– Ally Mutnick and Max Cohen

…AND THERE’S MORE

New: Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) is requesting a meeting with President Donald Trump on immigration. Suozzi says he shares Trump’s goal to crack down on violent criminals, but argues Trump’s targeting of undocumented immigrants with deep ties to local communities is misguided.

“Together, we can design a system that restores order while eliminating fear,” Suozzi wrote in the letter.

– Max Cohen

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