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THE TOP
Tough choices for voters as America swings into full-election mode
U.S. politics are particularly unsettled right now.
Voters face a tough choice between an octogenarian and a near-octogenarian. Both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump won their party’s nominations despite being deeply unpopular.
Control of the House and Senate is up for grabs on Nov. 5 as well. Republicans have a great Senate map and multiple pickup opportunities, while Democrats only need to gain a handful of seats to take back the House.
All this is happening against the backdrop of a bloody war in the Middle East that has divided Democratic voters and could hurt Biden in November.
The war hasn’t spared some down-ballot races either.
Later today, voters in suburban New York will choose between Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) and George Latimer in a primary race that has been animated by Israel’s war in Gaza. This primary is already one of the most expensive in U.S. history, with pro-Israel AIPAC pouring in millions of dollars to unseat Bowman.
Latimer has picked up endorsements from former State Secretary Hillary Clinton and Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), while Bowman boasts the support of progressive stars like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). The party’s fissures couldn’t be wider on this issue.
On the Republican side, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy is still hoping to notch a first victory on his revenge tour by taking out Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), chair of the hardline House Freedom Caucus. A week after the election, the results of Virginia’s Fifth District primary aren’t final yet and may not be for some time. But as of Tuesday morning, Good was still trailing rival John McGuire.
This issue of The Tally features:
→ | A deeper dive into the Bowman-Latimer race that Democratic leadership has largely stayed out of. |
→ | The quiet but high-stakes contest to replace Mitch McConnell as Senate GOP leader. We track what the top contenders are doing with their summers to boost their chances. |
→ | The most expensive House primary races. |
→ | And of course the Power Matrix, where we lay out who’s up and who’s down in politics. |
As always, thank you for reading!
— Jake Sherman
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BOWMAN VS AIPAC
Bowman enters primary day with little support from Democratic leadership
Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) is in a bitter fight for his political life. He’s staring down a tough primary challenge from Westchester County Executive George Latimer while being drastically outspent on the airwaves.
However, New York’s 16th District primary has clearly not been a top priority for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and his Democratic leadership team.
As part of leadership’s pledge to support incumbents, the top three House Democrats all endorsed Bowman in March and have donated to his campaign. But leadership hasn’t done much more beyond that.
There have been no campaign visits from top Democratic leaders to back Bowman. Jeffries, who is close with AIPAC and starkly diverges from Bowman on Israel, hasn’t spoken out against the avalanche of pro-Latimer spending from AIPAC’s super PAC.
Bowman told us that he’s encouraged by early voting numbers that he says show strong support from his base. And absent Jeffries’ presence, Bowman says he’s “humbled” by support from left-wing leaders like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Cori Bush (D-Mo.) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.).
“It continues to give me strength to move on and push on and fight on as we fight for justice,” Bowman said.
Jeffries’ team insists the Democratic leader is fully focused on winning back the House and doesn’t have time to dedicate to stumping for Bowman. Jeffries has traveled to Seattle, San Francisco and Louisville to fundraise in recent weeks. This week, Jeffries found time to record a robocall supporting Bowman.
But it’s hard not to think that some of Bowman’s stances on Israel have put Jeffries in a tough spot when it comes to sticking up for his fellow New Yorker.
Most controversially, in the days after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, Bowman described reports that Israeli women were raped as “propaganda.” Bowman has since apologized for that statement, but Jeffries is still having to answer for those comments.
Last week, Jeffries told reporters at a memorial for the victims of the Hamas attack that he and Bowman “strongly disagree with each other as it relates to the relationship the U.S has necessarily with Israel.”
Still, Jeffries reiterated that he is supporting all Democratic incumbents up for reelection regardless of their policy differences.
“That doesn’t mean I agree with the positions that are articulated,” Jeffries added.
Bowman, for his part, told us he wished the leader was more present in his race.
“Of course, if the leader has the time to weigh in as much as possible on the race we want him to do so,” Bowman said, calling Jeffries’ endorsement “very helpful.”
Bowman acknowledged that Jeffries’ time commitments take him elsewhere.
“We would love to have him be as available as possible. And so I don’t take it personally,” Bowman said. “I don’t think it’s a personal slight that he hasn’t been.”
A complicated relationship: Jeffries has had a checkered history with progressives like Bowman. Jeffries, along with Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and Terri Sewell (D-Ala.), launched a PAC in 2021 aimed at protecting House Democrats from left-wing challengers.
Team Blue PAC was a clear rebuke of the string of progressive candidates — often backed by Justice Democrats — who were running against longtime incumbents in safe blue seats. As House Democratic leader, Jeffries isn’t affiliated with the PAC anymore.
At the time, then-caucus chair Jeffries touted the importance of the “effort to protect our incredible members.” But three years later, there’s some frustration among progressives that Jeffries hasn’t advocated more forcefully for Bowman.
“The outcome of this election is a reflection on his leadership and whether Hakeem Jeffries stood up to Republican megadonors spending $17 million against NY-16’s first Black congressman or whether he let Donald Trump’s biggest donors win,” Usamah Andrabi, a spokesperson for Justice Democrats, said.
While Jeffries and his leadership colleagues say they’re laser-focused on visiting swing seats, there is precedent for party leadership stumping for incumbents in safer territory.
Back in 2022, Jeffries campaigned for Rep. Danny Davis (D-Ill.) against young progressive challenger, Kina Collins. That same year, then-House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn campaigned alongside scandal-hit Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) as he faced a brutal primary despite their different positions on abortion.
Bowman’s primary campaign is embracing underdog status, with progressive icons like Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez rallying for him over the weekend.
Latimer told us he’s taking notice of who’s visiting to campaign for Bowman.
“I have not seen a coordinated effort to support him from the vast majority of his colleagues in the House,” Latimer said.
— Max Cohen
SENATE GOP LEADERSHIP RACE
How top contenders to replace McConnell are spending their summer
For the first time in nearly 20 years, there’s a different November contest that will have massive implications on Capitol Hill — the race to succeed Mitch McConnell as Senate Republican leader.
So we wanted to take a look at how the three leading contenders — Senate Minority Whip John Thune, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) — are spending their summers in and away from the Capitol to boost their leadership bids.
Their efforts center on fundraising and getting as much face time as possible with GOP candidates and in-cycle incumbents, including at the RNC convention in Milwaukee in July.
The leadership election takes place in late November by secret ballot, so senators don’t have to publicize their vote if they don’t want to. But of course, Donald Trump could still have a lot of influence on the outcome, especially if he defeats President Joe Biden.
Thune: The South Dakota Republican will be hitting the battleground states for events and fundraisers for some of the party’s top Senate recruits. That includes Tim Sheehy in Montana, Mike Rogers in Michigan, Larry Hogan in Maryland and Sam Brown in Nevada. Next week he’ll be in Ohio with Bernie Moreno, the GOP nominee taking on Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).
A source familiar with Thune’s political operation told us the senator has raised more than $16 million so far in the 2024 cycle. He’s also brought in more for the NRSC this cycle than any other Republican senator, except NRSC Chair Steve Daines, and is one of the most consistent attendees at NRSC-sanctioned events and fundraisers.
On the legislative front, Thune’s focus as GOP whip has been on Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s bid to use “show” votes this summer to put Republicans in a politically uncomfortable spot. Thune has kept Republicans largely united in opposing the Schumer-led votes.
Cornyn: The Texan, who preceded Thune as Senate GOP whip, continues to be a fundraising juggernaut for his party. This is a major selling point for his candidacy.
Cornyn has raised an impressive $20 million so far this cycle, matching his total for the entire 2022 cycle. He’s also the top NRSC fundraiser this calendar year aside from Daines.
Last weekend, Cornyn headlined a fundraiser for Moreno. Cornyn plans to travel to several of the other battlegrounds, while he’ll also see millions of dollars poured into his home state with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) up for reelection.
Legislatively, Cornyn has taken a leading role in condemning Schumer’s floor strategy for the summer, urging him to instead use the time to pass the annual defense policy bill as the number of legislative days dwindles. He’s also been a leading critic of the Senate’s shortened work weeks, vowing that things will be different if Republicans are in charge next year.
Scott: The Florida Republican, who chaired the NRSC last cycle, is in a unique position here because he’s also running for his Senate reelection. While he’s favored to win reelection, Scott isn’t taking any chances. He plans to focus on his own race rather than campaigning for others.
Will Hampson, a Scott campaign aide, told us that the Floridian will hit all 67 of the state’s counties by August.
“He’s excited to talk with Floridians about why we need major change in Washington and why he’s the man to bring that sea change,” Hampson said.
At the Capitol, Scott sometimes finds himself partnering with Democrats, especially on efforts to counter China.
But his weekly updates on inflation are of particular interest to GOP senators. Each quarter, Scott prints and distributes an economic snapshot to Republicans at their lunch meetings. This, of course, is one of the GOP’s core messages to voters this year.
— Andrew Desiderio
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THE PRIMARIES
The most expensive House primary races so far
Most attention may be on the presidential race this year, but House primaries have already broken records for their ad spending. Here are the top five most expensive House primaries so far, based on an analysis of TV ad spending from our friends at AdImpact.
NY-16 Dems: Jamaal Bowman v George Latimer — $24.8 million
New York’s 16th District Democratic primary is officially the priciest House primary race of all time.
AIPAC’s super PAC alone has poured more than $14 million in ads in the district to unseat Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.). The pro-Israel group’s super PAC, United Democracy Project, rarely directly references Israel in its messaging. Instead, most ads have attacked Bowman as a self-interested force working against President Joe Biden, while touting Westchester County Executive George Latimer as a commonsense Democrat.
As we wrote earlier in this edition, Bowman is in the biggest fight for his political career with lukewarm support from his party leaders. The primary day is today, June 25.
VA-5 GOP: Bob Good v John McGuire — $15.4 million
Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and his megadonor allies organized a coordinated effort to attack House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good (R-Va.) on the air. State Sen. John McGuire has been slightly ahead in the results of the June 18 primary that could knock off Good. It could take weeks to declare a winner.
Good voted to oust McCarthy and also drew the ire of former President Donald Trump when he endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for president. Top spenders in this race include a super PAC backed by finance giants Ken Griffin and Paul Singer.
OK-4 GOP: Tom Cole v Paul Bondar — $11.4 million
Businessman Paul Bondar came out of obscurity to dump millions of his own money into his long-shot primary campaign against powerful House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.). Bondar fell far short in his bid to hit Cole from the right. Establishment groups linked to House GOP leadership were forced to parachute in to support Cole.
VA-10 Dems: Open seat vacated by Jennifer Wexton — $9.4 million
A crowded field of 12 Democrats vying to replace retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Va.) in this suburban D.C. district was the perfect recipe for a pricey campaign. A pro-cryptocurrency PAC, Protect Progress, backed state Del. Dan Helmer with a $4.1 million expenditure. But it wasn’t enough for Helmer, who lost to state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam.
S.C.-1 GOP: Nancy Mace v Catherine Templeton — $9.2 million
Another stop in McCarthy’s “revenge tour” came in his unsuccessful effort to defeat Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.). South Carolina Patriots PAC, linked to McCarthy’s big-money allies, dumped $3.5 million in ads hitting Mace and boosting her opponent Catherine Templeton. The pro-Mace Club for Growth also poured $1.3 million into the race, which Mace won by more than 20 points.
— Max Cohen
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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.
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