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IN THIS EDITION

The 2025 spending wars hit the floor

Senate’s summer of show votes sparks GOP divisions

Inside House conservatives’ push to purge moderates from GOP

Top takeaways from primary day

THE TOP

The 2025 spending wars hit the floor

Happy Wednesday morning.

The House will vote today on the FY2025 MilCon-VA spending bill, the first of next year’s measures to reach the floor under new Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.).

Yet only a handful of House Democrats are likely to vote for the nearly $379 billion package, traditionally among the most bipartisan of the 12 annual spending bills.

In fact, Democratic leaders are urging all their members to vote no in order to lay down a marker for Cole, Speaker Mike Johnson and other senior Republicans. The message: if they want to avoid a repeat of last year’s appropriations debacle, they should cut a deal with Democrats now and skip the theatrics.

“It really is going down the same road. I don’t know what the reasoning is behind this,” said Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), top Democrat on the Appropriations Committee. “It’s going to be the same catastrophe as it was last year.”

Cole, Johnson and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise insist they’re open to a deal. Just not right now.

Cole’s plan is to use Fiscal Responsibility Act FY2025 funding levels minus multi-billion dollar “side deals” negotiated between President Joe Biden and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Cole says he and Johnson weren’t part of those side deals, so they don’t have to honor them.

The Oklahoma Republican’s position would lead to big cuts in domestic spending while the Pentagon’s budget would increase by $9 billion. Funding for the departments of Homeland Security and Veterans Affairs would also be boosted. Bills such as Labor-HHS, State-Foreign Ops and Financial Services-General Government would see double-digit cuts.

And in a bow to GOP hardliners, Cole and Republican appropriators have included numerous “poison pills” in these bills. These are conservative policy riders covering abortion, DEI, immigration, climate change, transgender and LGBTQ funding. The upcoming spending bill for the Justice Department is expected to include language targeting Special Counsel Jack Smith’s criminal investigations into former President Donald Trump, among other anti-”lawfare” riders.

All these provisions are bitterly opposed by House Democrats, and they won’t get anywhere with the Democratic-run Senate or the White House.

The affable Cole portrays all this as a negotiation and “our opening bid” in the FY2025 spending fight.

“It’s an opening position, a negotiation. These things always are,” Cole said. “These things are never ‘Take it or leave it.’ They change.”

No talks yet. Cole and House GOP leaders aren’t negotiating with anyone yet, not even on topline spending. Cole is pushing to have all 12 bills through his panel by mid-July. Scalise wants them all passed on the floor before Congress leaves for the August recess.

There are vulnerable House Republicans who could balk at such domestic-spending cuts knowing they’ll never become law. The House only passed seven such bills last year before the appropriations process bogged down in a partisan stalemate.

Lawmakers will need to pass a continuing resolution before the Sept. 30 deadline to avoid a government shutdown. Then they’ll come back and finish up everything post-election.

House Democrats, the Senate and the White House all feel the issue of FY2025 spending levels was settled when the Fiscal Responsibility Act was enacted last year.

“Tom Cole, I have a lot of respect for,” DeLauro said. “I’ve been very clear. We’re not doing less than 1%.” DeLauro means there needs to be a minimum 1% increase for both defense and nondefense spending. As of now, the two sides are tens of billions of dollars apart.

Even House GOP appropriators — while supporting Cole’s plan — admit it probably won’t work. They also acknowledge that GOP hardliners will be upset when Johnson and the GOP leadership can’t deliver the spending cuts they’re promising now.

“All we can do is what we can do in the House, and what we think is right,” said Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho), cardinal for the Interior subcommittee. “In the end, you’re going to have to negotiate with the Democratic Senate and a Democratic administration. And spending levels will probably go up in some areas.”

We asked Simpson if this would lead to a backlash by conservatives. “I suspect you’re right,” the veteran lawmaker said.

Let’s circle back to Johnson and Scalise. How will Johnson — who was only able to beat back a motion to vacate from GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.) with Democratic support — survive conservative criticism when he ends up cutting deals with Democrats and Biden on these bills, likely in the lame-duck session?

Here’s what Johnson told us when we asked him why he should expect a different result this time around: “Because we’re doing the slow, deliberate process of building consensus around these ideas, and I’m optimistic that we’ll be able to get it done.”

Johnson said it with a smile, almost seeming to know how unrealistic it sounds.

Scalise described the situation this way: “​​We can only control the House. The Senate has notoriously failed to act in a timely manner, but it’s up to us to do our job in the House, and then go shame them into doing theirs.”

— John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman

June Events: Join us on Wednesday, June 12 at 9 a.m. ET for a conversation with Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.). Punchbowl News founder Jake Sherman will sit down with Hickenlooper to discuss the news of the day and how AI will impact the future of infrastructure, security and tourism worldwide. RSVP now!

THE SENATE

Senate’s summer of show votes sparks GOP divisions

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is embracing the art of the “show vote” to boost his vulnerable incumbents this summer, a reflection of the steep uphill climb Democrats face as their majority hangs by a thread.

It began last month with the border security deal, putting red-state Democrats on the record once again in support of what they say is the strictest bipartisan border crackdown in decades.

Now, Schumer is teeing up a series of votes on abortion-related legislation for June, beginning later today with a procedural vote on the Right to Contraception Act. Schumer also started the process to vote later this month on legislation protecting IVF. And he says more votes are coming.

Republicans are dismissing the Schumer campaign as an election-year ploy. This is a unifying message among GOP senators.

“They are more interested in playing politics than they are actually about securing the very things they’re talking about,” Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) said. “They’ve engaged in a summer of scare tactics, and they don’t care about the false fear they’re creating in women and families.”

But that’s where their consensus ends.

GOP clashes over abortion strategy: As is often the case, Democrats are unified here while Republicans showed new signs of strategic division this week.

As we scooped in Tuesday’s PM edition, Republicans sparred during their closed-door lunch over whether to vote to advance the Democratic contraception bill in a bid to go on offense over the issue, according to multiple attendees.

The goal, these members said, would be to force votes on amendments and potentially a side-by-side vote on Sen. Joni Ernst’s (R-Iowa) Allowing Greater Access to Safe and Effective Contraception Act. This is the GOP alternative to the Democrats’ bill. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) was among those making the case to vote in favor of advancing the Democratic bill.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who’s running for GOP leader, then chimed in and suggested that Republicans should all stick together if the plan is to vote to advance the measure.

Senate Minority Whip John Thune quickly shot down this idea, we’re told, saying it does Republicans no good to drag out a process that Democrats are simply using as a political cudgel against Republicans. In other words, it’s a trap — and GOP senators should quickly dispense with it.

Before the GOP lunch, we asked Thune whether he’s concerned about the month-long Democratic effort to highlight abortion on the floor, especially since the issue has proven to be effective for Democrats since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Thune said it’s something Republican candidates this year will “need to have a clear answer for.”

“The Democrats don’t have a lot else to talk about [because] they don’t want to talk about inflation, they don’t want to talk about the border,” Thune said. “And frankly it’s an issue that — yeah, there’s some political traction with it out there.”

How far will Schumer go? The Democratic leader isn’t saying what he’ll do after the abortion votes this month, but he could extend the strategy to other areas as well.

Of course, actual legislative days will be few and far between the closer we get to Nov. 5. However, it’s reasonable to ask whether Schumer will continue the “show vote” effort for other legislation that Democrats think they could benefit from.

That could mean voting on the Wyden-Smith tax bill at some point. Senate Republicans almost uniformly oppose it, as do a few Democrats. But there could be some political advantages for vulnerable Democrats voting on the package, which includes tax benefits for Ohio residents impacted by last year’s train derailment in East Palestine, as well as an expansion of the child tax credit.

Schumer declined to say Tuesday whether he plans on bringing up the measure this summer, citing GOP opposition.

— Andrew Desiderio

GOP AT WAR

Inside House conservatives’ push to purge moderates from GOP

House conservatives are waging war against GOP moderates, targeting competitive primaries in an attempt to rid Congress of establishment Republicans.

This primary season has highlighted just how far the right flank is planning to go, with House Freedom Caucus members and their allies going after sitting incumbents like Reps. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), Mike Bost (R-Ill.), William Timmons (R-S.C.) and Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.).

Several members have privately said that it’s worth driving Republicans into the minority if it means boosting the number of far-right members in Congress. That means supporting candidates who are willing to shut down the federal government, push red-meat culture riders and reject the type of bipartisanship promoted by more pragmatic members in purple districts.

“With the shape this country is in, we have to go with the most conservative members,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) told us. “If you make the right choice, you have to first change what’s going on up here with the spending and with the Washington inside clique that just wants to do the same thing over and over again.”

Their strategy has already seen setbacks.

Bost and Gonzales beat their far-right challengers, although both primaries were competitive.

Yet despite these losses, hard right lawmakers say it’s important to make a point by challenging moderates.

“Republicans around the country want somebody who is going to vote with Republicans,” House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good (R-Va.) told us. “They want somebody who actually wants to secure the border, somebody who’s a genuine conservative fighter, and not somebody that’s part of the uniparty establishment that’s been passing these major spending bills with Democrats.”

Good, of course, faces his own June 18 primary against John McGuire, who has been endorsed by both former President Donald Trump and multiple House Republicans.

Norman put it more simply, referring to his support for South Carolina State Rep. Adam Morgan, who is running against Timmons.

“Adam Morgan is a conservative and is more conservative than William,” Norman said.

Morgan is backed by several Freedom Caucus members and chairs the South Carolina Freedom Caucus. The South Carolina primary is June 11.

A handful of lawmakers, including Good and Norman, are also supporting Jerrod Sessler running against Newhouse. Newhouse is one of just two House Republicans left in Congress who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump in 2021 over his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. Washington will hold its jungle primary on Aug. 6.

The opposition: Not every Republican is on board with meddling in primaries.

Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.), a freshman HFC member, said he disagrees that members should try to oust their colleagues.

“I’m not one of the people in the Freedom Caucus getting involved with primary challengers,” Burlison told us. “If I’m serving with that person, I’m going to give them the respect of not getting involved in that race.”

Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) said he thinks too much of primary meddling has become about personal vendettas, rather than having a cohesive strategy of trying to elect more conservatives to Congress.

“We certainly risk losing the majority if we don’t really focus on how we achieve this goal and not just make an effort to oust them,” Mills told us.

We also previously reported that Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), a founding member of the Freedom Caucus, is opposed to members getting involved in incumbents’ primaries.

“I don’t engage in that,” Jordan told us.

— Mica Soellner

COCKTAILS & CONVERSATIONS

On Tuesday night, we hosted “Cocktails & Conversation: Inside the Hispanic Swing Vote,” an event featuring networking, light bites and a fireside chat about the issues influencing Hispanic voters in the 2024 elections. Punchbowl News CEO Anna Palmer sat down for a conversation with Jesus Lara, President of Local Media at TelevisaUnivision, and Pilar Ramos, Executive Vice President, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary at TelevisaUnivision. Thank you to TelevisaUnivision for partnering with us on this event.

Raising a glass: Zuraya Tapia-Hadley of TelevisaUnivision; Cristina Antelo and Mark Williams of Ferox Strategies; Mary Ann Gomez Orta of the Congressional Hispanic Leadership Institute; Sandra Benitez of The LIBRE Initiative; Arielle Schwartz of AIPAC; Sarah Guggenheimer and Amanda Ach of Senate Majority PAC; Eddie Taveras, Matt Corridoni, and Marco Frieri of the DNC; Daniel Luongo of the NRCC; Tasha Cole and José Muñoz of the DCCC; Isaac Reyes of Target; Hastie Afkhami of S-3 Group; Marissa Padilla of Global Strategy Group; Jodi Sakol of AARP; and Danna Almeida of the Office of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.).

Top takeaways from primary day

Here are our top takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries.

It’s not all bad news for the Menendez family. Rep. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) survived a primary challenge from Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla in the 8th District. Bhalla tried to tie the younger Menendez to his indicted father. But Menendez successfully argued that he shouldn’t be held accountable for Sen. Bob Menendez’s (D-N.J.) alleged misdeeds.

Elsewhere in New Jersey, Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) easily won the Democratic Senate primary and will face Republican Curtis Bashaw in November. The elder Menendez is also trying to run as an independent for his seat. State assemblymember Herb Conaway won the Democratic primary for Kim’s 3rd District seat.

Iowa Republicans fend off far-right challenges. Reps. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) both survived challenges from hardline conservatives. Both members consider themselves part of the governing wing of the GOP and faced criticism from their opponents that they were insufficiently right-wing for their districts.

Downing emerges from a crowded Montana field. Montana State Auditor Troy Downing won the 2nd District Republican primary in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.). Downing beat former Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.) and retired DEA agent Stacy Zinn.

Buckeye State news: The Ohio Democratic Party is launching a statewide press tour trying to paint Ohio GOP Senate candidate Bernie Moreno as a liar. Moreno beat back a number of more establishment candidates in the Republican primary for a chance to take on Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio). Democrats are hammering Moreno on statements he’s made about his car dealerships, his immigration story and his business career.

The effort — labeled the “Pants-on-Fire Tour” — will make stops in Toledo, Youngstown, Lima, Columbus and Cleveland, and it will feature local elected officials and labor leaders.

— Max Cohen

… AND THERE’S MORE

Crowell and Moring signed up the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan and ​the American Chamber of Commerce in Korea.

Utah Gov. Spencer Cox has what might be the most positive ad of the cycle. The spot, running in Salt Lake City, is an upbeat, 30-second ad touting just how great Utah is. It says nothing of his primary opponent, Phil Lyman, and barely says anything about what Cox has done. But watch it if you want a palate cleanser this cycle.

– Jake Sherman

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