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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Friday morning, and welcome to July.
There’s a lot riding on what happens during the next month in Washington. So we wanted to lay out the issues we’re going to be watching until the August recess.
→ | Can Congress get a USICA deal? The USICA bill – Chips, the Bipartisan Innovation Act, whatever you want to call it – suddenly finds itself in the middle of a complex new calculus. |
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell warned on Thursday that if Democrats are still “pursuing a partisan reconciliation” package, he’ll sink USICA. Now we have lots of questions about this threat and what it means. A number of Senate Republicans want to pass USICA, which is designed to boost U.S. competitiveness with China on high-tech research and manufacturing, but they’ll stick with McConnell here. There will be no GOP votes for a $1 trillion reconciliation package that includes tax increases – and that’s what Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is putting together. Corporate America really wants USICA as well, and major industries have spent tens of millions of dollars lobbying for it. But how will McConnell ensure that Schumer doesn’t pass reconciliation after USICA? Does McConnell hold up USICA until September or until after the election?
The conventional wisdom before McConnell threw this wrench in the process was that the Congress needed to clear USICA in July or the effort was dead. Now, K Street and other Hill leaders are scrambling to understand the ramifications of McConnell’s play.
→ | Reconciliation. Passing reconciliation was going to be tough enough even before McConnell’s latest threat. As we’ve reported, Schumer and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) are trying to craft a roughly $1 trillion compromise package that can be voted on in July – which means a week of floor time. Reconciliation instructions expire at the end of September, and the House is scheduled to leave town on July 29 (the Senate will stay in session another week). So the schedule is tight. Any prolonged absence by Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) following hip replacement surgery would also be a huge problem. |
We’ve always had our doubts that Manchin’s chief goal – rolling back the 2017 GOP tax cut – could pass the House so late in the election cycle. And remember that a group of Northeastern Democrats has vowed to vote against any change to the tax code that doesn’t include a repeal of the SALT deduction limit. Raising the SALT cap would drive the cost of this legislation through the roof.
Manchin also has concerns about the cost of any Obamacare premium support extension, yet that’s a huge priority for President Joe Biden and other Democrats. So Schumer, Manchin and Speaker Nancy Pelosi have to figure out all of these tricky issues in the next few weeks.
→ | Covid money. Remember Covid funding? Neither does Congress. White House officials begged lawmakers throughout the spring to approve more Covid prep money so the federal government could build up its stockpiles of tests, vaccines and therapeutics for a possible next variant. Republicans blocked it, and the Biden administration was forced to reallocate $10 billion in existing funding to these efforts. HHS and the Pentagon, for instance, just agreed to buy more than $3 billion worth of vaccine doses from Pfizer for a “fall vaccination campaign.” |
And a bipartisan group of senators sought $40 billion to help restaurants and other small businesses hit by Covid. That was blocked as well, and seems to have just disappeared from view.
→ | Jan. 6. The Jan. 6 select committee will have at least two more hearings this month, and we know how much political oxygen these suck up. The select committee has subpoenaed former White House counsel Pat Cipollone for a deposition next week, but that issue may end up in court. Panel members have a final report to issue, and they also must decide whether to make any criminal referrals to the Department of Justice, including potentially for former President Donald Trump. There’s lots of action on this front, and it will steal headlines for most of the month. |
→ | Appropriations. We’re nine months into FY2023, and the two sides aren’t close to any kind of agreement on government funding, which expires at the end of September. House Appropriations Committee Democrats, led by Rep. Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut, have begun work on the 12 annual spending bills, even passing a number of them through the full committee in the face of GOP opposition. DeLauro and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer want to have floor votes on some of these bills in July. |
However, the Senate Appropriations Committee hasn’t really done anything on any of its bills. And now, Leahy’s injury complicates things. When Leahy will return and what his absence means for the appropriations process is unclear. The normal recovery for that surgery is several weeks.
But we should acknowledge too that Republicans won’t do a deal on a spending bill while Democrats continue to push on reconciliation. Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama, the ranking Republican on Appropriations, is going to want a lot more money for defense than House Democrats or Biden have proposed.
→ | Odds and ends. Then there’s all the other things congressional leaders have said they want to get done in the coming weeks. The Senate will take up Steven Dettelbach’s nomination to lead the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives when the chamber returns July 11. He would be the first Senate-confirmed ATF director since 2015. |
Schumer has also promised to bring a bipartisan bill capping insulin copays to the floor “very soon.” Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine), who have been working on the bill for months, rolled it out a week ago. A group of senators on both sides of the aisle — led by Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) — is also pushing for the Senate to consider a bill to crack down on Big Tech this month.
— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Heather Caygle
PRESENTED BY META
Doctors can practice high-risk situations risk-free in the metaverse
Body: In the metaverse, future surgeons will be able to practice advanced procedures hundreds of times before seeing real patients – helping them gain experience and master their skills.
The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real.
THE AD GAME
Democrats dominate airwaves with abortion ads
Democratic ads on abortion rights have flooded the airwaves in the days after the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade.
Since the Dobbs decision was issued last Friday, $4 million has been spent on abortion ads — a total of 56 unique ads and 8,900 airings, according to AdImpact. The vast majority of spots are from Democrats angered at the decision while Republicans have stayed relatively quiet on the issue.
In competitive Senate, House and gubernatorial races, Democrats and pro-abortion rights groups are leaning into the court’s decision as a way to motivate voters in November. Here’s a sampling of the major pro-abortion rights messaging Americans saw on their television screens this past week.
Senate races
→ | Pennsylvania: Planned Parenthood Votes is attacking Mehmet Oz’s abortion stances as “too extreme for Pennsylvania” in a new spot. Planned Parenthood says it will spend up to $3 million on this ad buy. |
→ | New Hampshire: As we reported Thursday morning, Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) released a direct-to-camera ad vowing to fight back against attempts to institute a national abortion ban. |
Emily’s List also ran an ad praising Hassan for “working for a federal law to protect a woman’s right to make her own personal decisions.”
→ | Wisconsin: Planned Parenthood Action Fund ripped Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) for calling for overturning Roe. An ad from the group accuses Johnson of “putting our health and reproductive rights in danger.” |
→ | Nevada: A spot from Women Vote! PAC highlighted GOP Senate candidate Adam Laxalt’s anti-abortion rights stances. “He’s coming after our freedom. We need to tell him no,” the spot concludes. |
→ | Washington: Sen. Patty Murray’s (D-Wash.) campaign seized on the Dobbs decision to draw attention to Murray’s likely general election opponent Tiffany Smiley’s past statements where she identified as “100% pro-life.” |
House races
→ | Nevada’s 3rd District: Incumbent Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.) is in one of the tightest reelection campaigns of any House Democrat. Her campaign quickly put out an ad contrasting Lee with GOP opponent April Becker on abortion rights. |
“April Becker — threatening every woman’s right to choose. Exactly why we need Susie Lee, endorsed by Planned Parenthood. Lee will protect our right to choose — always,” the ad says.
→ | Washington’s 8th District: Frontline Rep. Kim Schrier (D-Wash.) released a new ad after the Dobbs decision where she spoke directly to camera on abortion rights. Here’s Schrier: |
“As a doctor, my oath is to protect patients. As your congresswoman, my oath is to protect your rights. Now that the court has overturned Roe, Congress must protect a woman’s right to choose.”
Gubernatorial races
→ | Illinois: Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s campaign is attacking GOP candidate Darren Bailey for his anti-abortion rights views. Plus, the Pritzker campaign also released an ad featuring Illinois women applauding Pritzker’s actions codifying a right to abortion in the state. |
→ | Connecticut: Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont also is out with an ad arguing Connecticut has “the strongest protections for a woman’s right to choose” in the country. |
— Max Cohen
INSIDE THE LEADERSHIP
What’s next for Jeffries’ Team Blue
House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries is widely considered the frontrunner to be the next Democratic leader in that chamber – if and when Speaker Nancy Pelosi leaves. Because of this, a lot of people pay a lot of attention to what Jeffries says and does, us included.
So when Jeffries and a group of moderate Democrats launched Team Blue PAC last year with the goal of helping incumbents fend off primary challengers, many took that as a direct shot at progressives, particularly the Squad.
Jeffries has made no secret of his distaste for what he calls “the hard left” and its impact on the party. But Jeffries and the other co-chairs of the PAC – Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), Terri Sewell (D-Ala.) and Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) – insist their goal is to keep the House majority. And, along the way, prove there’s room within the caucus for a broad ideological range of members, they say.
Still, Jeffries doesn’t shy away from making his feelings known about challenges from the left to incumbent Democrats.
“We will not let anyone intimidate members of the House Democratic Caucus as part of an effort to bend the knee, not now, not ever,” Jeffries told us of progressive efforts to topple incumbents.
We caught up with Jeffries this week after the fourth – and final – member endorsed by the PAC so far, Rep. Danny Davis (D-Ill.), won his primary challenge, defeating Justice Democrats’ endorsed Kina Collins by seven points.
The PAC also endorsed Democratic Reps. Shontel Brown (Ohio), Donald Payne (N.J.) and Dina Titus (Nev.). In addition to the $5,000 maximum donation, the PAC provided strategic campaign and communications guidance – not to mention Jeffries’ in-person campaigning.
All four won their primaries. But with those races over, what’s next?
The No. 5 House Democrat told us the group might play in another primary or two but then will turn to boosting Frontliners. Jeffries declined to provide further specifics on which Frontliners, saying the co-chairs hadn’t met yet to discuss their plans going forward.
“Primary season is coming to a close but it’s not over,” Jeffries said. “At the same time, there is clarity that putting the primary season behind us as quickly as possible will enable everyone to turn our attention toward ensuring that we win in November.”
We’ve said this many times — Democrats face huge headwinds going into November. They have a razor-thin majority, a historic midterm disadvantage and angry voters dealing with an unstable economy and calling for change.
So as much as this might be about holding the House, it’s clear Jeffries’ group wants to send a message to progressives that they’ll have to work a lot harder to take out establishment Democrats.
The Congressional Black Caucus, of which Jeffries is a senior member, has been particularly irked by the rise of far-left progressive challengers in recent cycles. Often, they say, progressive groups target Black members, such as Davis. And a number of them are still bitter about Rep. Cori Bush’s (D-Mo.) ouster of longtime Rep. Lacy Clay in 2020.
Progressives strongly dispute the claim that they are focusing on CBC members. They point to challenges against lawmakers like former Rep. Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.) and, of course, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s shocking triumph over then Rep. Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.) in 2018.
Liberals have had more success this cycle in open seats — like Summer Lee in Pennsylvania and Jasmine Crockett in Texas — compared to trying to knock off sitting members. Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) lost his primary but other members, such as Brown in Ohio and Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), have survived.
— Heather Caygle
PRESENTED BY META
THE CAMPAIGN
→ | New Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) is endorsing Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes in the Wisconsin Democratic Senate primary. |
“Mandela Barnes gets what working families are going through, and that’s exactly why he is the best person to represent Wisconsin in the U.S. Senate,” Gallego said in a statement. Check out the full statement here.
So far, Barnes leads the primary field in endorsements from members of Congress. Barnes recently picked up the support of leading progressive Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Katie Porter (D-Calif.). Plus, Barnes is backed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), among others.
Gallego, of course, has attracted headlines for hinting at a possible primary challenge against Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.).
The other Democrats in this race include State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Milwaukee Bucks’ VP Alex Lasry and Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, among others.
— Max Cohen
FRONTS
PRESENTED BY META
MOMENTS
9:45 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.
1 p.m.: Biden will hold a virtual meeting with governors about abortion rights.
2:30 p.m.: Biden will leave the White House for Camp David. He will arrive at 2:50 p.m.
Vice President Kamala Harris is in Los Angeles and has no public events scheduled.
CLIP FILE
NYT
→ | “Trump Group Pays for Jan. 6 Lawyers, Raising Concerns of Witness Pressure,” by Luke Broadwater, Maggie Haberman, Annie Karni and Alan Feuer |
→ | “E.P.A. Ruling Is Milestone in Long Pushback to Regulation of Business,” by Charlie Savage |
WaPo
→ | “How Trump World pressures witnesses to deny his possible wrongdoing,” by Rosalind S. Helderman, Josh Dawsey and Jacqueline Alemany |
WSJ
→ | “Markets Post Worst First Half of a Year in Decades,” by Akane Otani |
→ | “Cooling Consumer Spending Points to Further Economic Slowdown,” by Gabriel T. Rubin |
Bloomberg
→ | “Amazon, Disney, AT&T Gave to Abortion Foes Like DeSantis While Vowing to Help Employees,” by Ike Swetlitz and Spencer Soper |
AP
→ | “Russian missiles kill at least 18 in Ukraine’s Odesa region” |
Politico
→ | “The Democratic primary that could determine the future of abortion rights,” by Burgess Everett |
Miami Herald
→ | “Florida judge temporarily blocks new law banning abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy,” by Lawrence Mower and Hannah Critchfield |
Louisville Courier-Journal
→ | “‘Deal with the devil.’ Secret Biden-McConnell deal on anti-abortion GOP judge enrages Democrats,” by Joe Sonka and Andrew Wolfson |
PRESENTED BY META
The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real
Body: Meta is helping build the metaverse so aviation mechanics will be able to practice servicing different jet engines – preparing them for any complex job.
The result: A more skilled workforce.
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.
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