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THE TOP
Happy Monday morning.
The Senate is in session today, the House returns tomorrow. President Joe Biden continues to quarantine after contracting Covid-19, but he’s getting better, according to his doctor. The president will speak virtually to Black law-enforcement executives this afternoon.
The August recess is looming and reelection campaigns are hitting high gear. The House leaves for recess after Friday’s vote, the Senate the following week.
With control of both chambers up for grabs and lawmakers anxious to be home, floor time is getting very tight. This is driving the legislative agenda, especially in the Senate, where everything takes much longer than expected. Passing a reconciliation package that allows Medicare to negotiate on prescription drug pricing and extends Obamacare subsidies is by far the most critical priority, but there are other key issues still outstanding with just two weeks to go – CHIPS-Plus, same-sex marriage, NATO, the assault weapons ban, police funding, and the PACT (Promise to Address Comprehensive Toxics) Act, a high-profile bill for veterans, among others. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other top Democrats will have to make some tough calls. Let’s get to it.
→ | Senate slam: The Senate will hold a cloture vote today on the CHIPS-Plus bill, a $280 billion package designed to aid both domestic semiconductor chip manufacturing and U.S. high-tech research. There’s plenty of GOP support for the measure, so we don’t anticipate any real problem with cloture. The Senate leadership says they’ll clear the bill no later than Wednesday. |
However, there are some interesting bedfellows sprouting up in the House. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been calling House Republicans, lobbying them to support the legislation. Pompeo has spoken with Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, who urged the former House member to go public with his support. The Biden administration has been heartened by the public support for the legislation from three key House Republicans — Rep. Mike McCaul (Texas), the ranking Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Mike Turner (Ohio), the top Republican on House Intelligence, and Rep. John Katko (N.Y.), the top Republican on the House Homeland Security Committee.
Once the Senate passes CHIPS-Plus, the big question will become “What’s next?” Schumer, along with Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), has been trying to determine if there are 10 GOP votes to overcome an expected GOP filibuster on the same-sex marriage bill. Forty-seven House Republicans supported the bill last week, so there’s a lot of interest in pushing this measure in the Senate. At this point, there’s no decision yet on whether to move forward.
There are two other outstanding issues – adding Sweden and Finland to NATO, and the PACT Act, which would allow millions of veterans exposed to toxic substances during their military careers to receive VA health care and benefits. There’s a chance one of these could move this week, if Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell can reach a time agreement. Both bills have strong support; the Senate passed the PACT Act last month 84-14 before the House revised it, and there will be more than 90 senators backing Sweden and Finland’s accession. But again, time is the key factor here. Without a time agreement between the two leaders, these votes will be put off until September.
One bill that’s not likely to get a vote before recess — the American Innovation and Choice Online Act, sponsored by Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa.) This Big Tech antitrust bill passed the Senate Judiciary Committee back in January but it’s stalled since then. Amazon, Google, Apple and other tech giants are lobbying furiously against the legislation. So far, there’s not 60 votes for the measure, and Schumer has said he’ll only bring it up if there’s enough support to overcome a filibuster.
And finally, there’s reconciliation. This is the must-pass bill for Schumer and Biden. Democrats must get some return for more than 15 months of work. Failure to do so would be a political disaster for the party. They’ve stripped the measure down to two key provisions that Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) will support – Medicare prescription drug price negotiations and a two-year extension of Obamacare premium subsidies.
Senate Democratic and GOP aides met with Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough on Thursday and Friday as part of the “Byrd bath” for the package. This is a highly technical review of whether the package conforms with the Byrd Rule, which controls reconciliation in the Senate.
GOP staffers reportedly challenged several provisions, including whether seniors can make monthly payments for prescriptions rather than pay a lump sum, allowing drug companies to raise prices faster than inflation and if the federal government can impose an excise tax on drug companies that don’t negotiate with Medicare. MacDonough could issue guidance as early as today.
Assuming Senate Democrats can move forward with this package, they’ll spend the rest of the week drafting legislative text, working through any issues with their rank-and-file, and then plotting floor strategy for a vote-a-rama.
Schumer would then call up the House-passed Build Back Better bill from last December – remember that? – to initiate the process. The vote-a-rama would start, and it would be wide open. Schumer’s plan is to finish by the end of next week. This likely will be the last measure that senators vote on before they leave town – unless there’s some other side deal.
→ | House Hustle: The House has its own set of challenges. Aside from waiting on the Senate to pass the CHIPS-Plus bill and to figure out reconciliation, Pelosi and other top House Democrats are debating internally whether they can take up some public-safety bills ahead of the recess, which starts Friday. |
There’s been a push from Democratic moderates to pass multiple bills to boost police funding. The House Judiciary Committee passed an assault weapons ban last week as well, a huge priority of gun-control advocates. None of these bills will be a walk in the park for the Democratic leadership. The assault weapon ban already faces opposition from several moderate Democrats. And good luck convincing progressives to support an increase in funding for police departments.
Also this week: The America First Agenda Summit is at the Marriott Marquis in Washington. Former President Donald Trump will speak Tuesday afternoon. This will be Trump’s first trip back to Washington since January 2021. A number of House and Senate Republicans will be there, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. Here’s the agenda.
– John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman
Tomorrow: As the Senate brings CHIPS-Plus to a vote, join us at the Roost at 9 a.m. ET for a conversation on the chips shortage with the Deputy Secretary of Commerce, Don Graves. This will be a conversation you don’t want to miss! RSVP to attend in-person or tune in on the livestream.
PRESENTED BY META
The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real
In the metaverse, surgical residents will be able to practice risky, complex cases over and over.
The result: improved training practices and better care for patients under even the most trying circumstances.
FINANCIAL FOCUS
Big week for economy as Fed readies rate increase, GDP on Thursday
This is a huge week for the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points on Wednesday, part of the central bank’s ongoing campaign to rein in soaring inflation.
Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell will hold a news conference then as well, the second day of the Federal Open Market Committee’s monthly session. This will be the big story of the week – how the Fed judges the progress of its inflation-fighting campaign, and what it expects to do next.
But there’s a host of other data that’s released during the next several days that will give us a clearer picture of where the wobbly U.S. economy is headed, and what it all may mean for the November midterm elections.
New home sales and consumer confidence ratings will be released on Tuesday. In addition to the Fed’s headline-making announcement on Wednesday afternoon, durable goods order data for June will be out early that morning The second-quarter GDP for the U.S. economy will be released on Thursday morning. And two closely watched gauges on inflation (Personal Consumption Expenditure) and labor costs (Employment Cost Index) will be released early Friday morning. Overall, there will be tons of new data to scrutinize, dig into and – ultimately – bicker over.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen played down the chances of a recession even if the GDP data is negative during an appearance Sunday on NBC’s “Meet The Press.”
Yellen pointed to the strong labor market and job growth, as well as continued low unemployment, as signs that the U.S. economy remains resilient:
“A common definition of recession is two negative quarters of GDP growth, or at least that’s something that’s been true in past recessions. When we’ve seen that, there has usually been a recession. And many economists expect second quarter GDP to be negative. First quarter GDP was negative. So we could see that happen, and that will be closely watched. But I do want to emphasize: What a recession really means is a broad-based contraction in the economy. And even if that number is negative, we are not in a recession now. And I would, you know, warn that we should be not, not characterizing that as a recession.”
Yellen acknowledged that “inflation is way too high” and said there would likely be “some slowing of job creation.”
However, Yellen said she’d “be amazed if the [National Bureau of Economic Research] would declare this period to be a recession even if it happens to have two quarters of negative growth.” The NBER is responsible for declaring whether the economy is in a recession or not.
Yellen:
“I’m not saying we will definitely avoid a recession, but I think there is a path that keeps the labor market strong and brings inflation down.”
→ | One more thing: The Congressional Budget Office will publish the “2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook” on Wednesday afternoon. This includes spending, deficit and debt projections for the next 30 years. Good times! |
– John Bresnahan
👀
Who we’re watching
→ | Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer: Closing out the Senate’s work for the summer will be tricky. Schumer has to push the CHIPS-Plus bill – a personal crusade – and the reconciliation package over the finish line before the recess, which is a heavy lift. Not to mention that the Senate might be able to codify same-sex marriage into law as soon as this week. |
→ | Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell: McConnell has been quiet about how he would vote on the Respect for Marriage Act, which repeals the Defense of Marriage Act and codifies same-sex marriage into federal law. Some GOP senators have said they may vote for it, but McConnell hasn’t shown his hand yet. Democrats are also looking for a deal to vote on Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO before the August recess. McConnell hasn’t said what would want to exact as part of a time agreement. |
→ | Speaker Nancy Pelosi: The speaker’s possible trip to Taiwan next month has further heightened tensions between the U.S. and China. Now China is privately warning of potential military responses to the visit, setting off alarm bells within the Biden administration. Pelosi, a longtime China hawk, has declined to discuss the potential trip, citing security reasons. But she told reporters last week that “it’s important for us to show support for Taiwan.” |
– Jake Sherman and Heather Caygle
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📅
What we’re watching
→ | Tuesday: The Senate Armed Services Committee will get briefed on Indo-Pacific policy and operations. Senate HELP will have a hearing on fentanyl. Senate Judiciary will have a hearing on the safety of law enforcement officers. Senate Banking will have a hearing on racism in banking. Senate Judiciary will also have a hearing on decriminalizing cannabis. |
→ | Wednesday: The House Oversight Committee will have a hearing “examining the practices and profits of gun manufacturers.” House Intelligence will have a hearing on foreign spyware. Senators will get a classified briefing on Ukraine at 3:45 p.m. |
→ | Thursday: The House Judiciary Committee will have a hearing on oversight of the Justice Department’s National Security Division. The House Veterans Affairs Committee will have a hearing on ending sexual harassment at the VA. The House Natural Resources Committee will have a hearing on barring polluters from getting government contracts. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will have a hearing on nominations. |
– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
THE CAMPAIGN
→ | Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is appearing at a fundraiser today for J.D. Vance, the GOP nominee for Senate in Ohio. Matt Johnson, one of the hosts, is a Cornyn alum. Kate O’Scannlain, who is married to Johnson, was the solicitor of labor in the Trump administration. |
→ | News: Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes’ final ad of the Senate Democratic primary campaign takes aim at his Democratic opponents while calling for more manufacturing in the United States. |
The campaign’s closing spot, entitled “Made in America,” is part of a multi-million dollar buy running statewide.
“When we manufacture things here, our shelves are stocked and it creates jobs you can raise a family on. Like my parents had,” Barnes says in the ad. “My mom was a teacher and my dad worked third shift. I’m tired of the excuses from millionaires running for Senate.”
Barnes’ main opponents in the Aug. 9 primary are Milwaukee Bucks SVP Alex Lasry, Wisconsin State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski and Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. Barnes has led in public opinion polling throughout the campaign and boasts support from the largest number of congressional endorsers.
This weekend, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) traveled to Milwaukee to campaign with Barnes.
→ | House Oversight Chair Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) has her first ad out this morning. Of course, Maloney is in a very competitive member-on-member primary against House Judiciary Chair Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.). This spot deals mostly with gender equity issues. The ad ends: “You cannot send a man to do a woman’s job.” The minute-long spot is airing in full on broadcast and streaming, but the Maloney campaign is also splitting the spot up for cable. The race is Aug. 23. |
→ | The National Association of Manufacturers is up with a new ad opposing reconciliation. They are opposed to the provision that allows Medicare to negotiate on drug prices. |
— Jake Sherman, Max Cohen and John Bresnahan
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FRONTS
MOMENTS
8:45 a.m.: Vice President Kamala Harris will travel to Indianapolis.
9:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.
11:30 a.m.: Harris will speak to legislators in Indianapolis about abortion rights.
12:30 p.m.: Biden will speak virtually to the National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives Conference.
3:10 p.m.: Karine Jean-Pierre and Ashish Jha will brief.
CLIP FILE
CNN
→ | ”How two Texas megadonors have turbocharged the state’s far-right shift,” by Casey Tolan, Matthew Reynard, Will Simon and Ed Lavandera |
NYT
→ | “2020 Election Deniers Seek Out Powerful Allies: County Sheriffs,” by Alexandra Berzon and Nick Corasaniti in Las Vegas |
→ | News Analysis: “As Jan. 6 Panel’s Evidence Piled Up, Conservative Media Doubled Down,” by Jeremy Peters |
→ | News Analysis: “On U.S. Foreign Policy, the New Boss Acts a Lot Like the Old One,” by Edward Wong |
Bloomberg
→ | “Trump Tests Waning Appeal in Washington Visit Shadowed by Jan. 6,” by Josh Wingrove and Mario Parker |
AP
→ | “’The money is gone’: Evacuated Ukrainians forced to return,” by Cara Anna in Pokrovsk, Ukraine |
→ | “Trump v. DeSantis: Young conservatives debate GOP’s future,” by Jill Colvin in Tampa |
Politico
→ | “The Midwestern pioneer lobbying Republicans on same-sex marriage,” by Burgess Everett |
LA Times
→ | “As Kevin McCarthy’s California district gets redder, discontent brews on his right,” by Jasper Goodman |
Houston Chronicle
→ | “Over 70% of young people call themselves pro-choice, but can Texas Democrats count on their votes?” by Cayla Harris |
PRESENTED BY META
The metaverse will make learning more interactive
Imagine students roaming with dinosaurs in the Jurassic period, visiting a museum in Paris without a plane ticket or watching Mark Antony debate in ancient Rome.
The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real.
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images
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