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IN THIS EDITION

A tale of two presidents – and two parties

Trump’s Capitol Hill Cabinet

Pfluger talks 2024, House majority and energy policy at GOP convention

Hudson feeling bullish on redistricted Alabama seat that leans Democratic

Rapid Canvass polling from RNC Day 3

THE TOP

A tale of two presidents – and two parties

Happy Thursday morning.

MILWAUKEE – Wednesday was a tale of two presidents — one current, one former — and two parties going through the best of times and the worst of times. Today will be more of the same.

Former President Donald Trump, having survived a weekend assassination attempt that left two people dead including the shooter, is prepared to accept his party’s presidential nomination tonight. Trump is the first pol since Richard Nixon to get nominated for a third time by his party, and he’d be the first president since Grover Cleveland to serve non-consecutive terms.

It’s also the first time any party will nominate a convicted felon to be their presidential candidate.

Trump’s political comeback represents a hard-to-even-fathom turn of events from January 2021, when the former president left Washington in disgrace following his failed attempt to overturn the election. Congressional Republicans were eager to move on from him, hoping that their party’s voters would do the same.

Now, Republicans are almost completely unified behind him. Even some of Trump’s biggest former critics and rivals took turns showering him with praise from the convention stage here in Milwaukee.

Trump listened to the GOP’s vice presidential nominee, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) — a man literally half his age — call him “the once and future president of the United States” during the Republican convention last night.

On a night themed as “Make America Strong Once Again,” the RNC passed out signs endorsing the Trump-Vance view calling for an end to the war in Ukraine, completely ignoring the GOP defense hawks warning that this position is flat-out dangerous.

Other signs had a simpler message: “Trump = Strength, Biden = Weakness.”

Trump has moved so far past the failed Jan. 6 insurrection that Peter Navarro — a former aide who went to jail for refusing to testify before the House select committee investigating the Capitol attack — even spoke at the convention last night. Trump’s federal indictment over his role in that attack is going nowhere fast, just like the criminal cases in Florida and Georgia.

Trump doesn’t care about old scandals either. Paul Manafort — Trump’s former campaign manager who pleaded guilty in 2018 to money laundering, tax fraud and illegal foreign lobbying charges, only to be pardoned by the former president — was on the convention floor Wednesday night.

Leading in the polls, with his party united behind him, plenty of money and an opponent who is faltering, Trump is trying to project an air of inevitable victory come Election Day. It may just work.

President Joe Biden, on the other hand, couldn’t have had a worse 24 hours.

Already under intense scrutiny from Democrats over his age and mental sharpness, Biden tested positive for Covid on Wednesday afternoon and had to head back to Delaware to recover. He has only mild symptoms, according to White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.

That was possibly the best thing that happened to him all day.

ABC’s Jon Karl reported that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer had told him Saturday night in Rehoboth Beach, Del., that “it would be best if Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race.” Schumer’s office later issued a non-denial denial.

Other reports followed that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries had issued a similar warning in his face-to-face meeting with Biden last Thursday. Jeffries’ office issued a similar non-denial denial.

Yet Schumer and Jeffries made clear to Biden that these conversations wouldn’t stay confidential. They’re clearly frustrated that Biden didn’t listen to the numerous complaints about the grim political landscape he’s created. And the private polls just continue to get worse.

Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who is close to both men, and other senior Democrats are similarly frustrated with Biden, we’ve been told by lawmakers. CNN reported Pelosi “privately told Biden polls show he cannot win” and will prevent them from taking the House back.

White House spokesperson Andrew Bates said Biden “told both leaders he is the nominee of the party, he plans to win and looks forward to working with both of them to pass his 100 days agenda to help working families.”

The DNC Rules Committee, chaired by Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Leah Daughtry, announced it was delaying until early August a “virtual roll call” to formally renominate Biden after lawmakers and delegates complained. Biden allies had wanted the roll call to be held next week, but Schumer and Jeffries were among those who pushed for a delay. This gives anti-Biden Democrats only a few more days to block him.

An AP poll showed that a large majority of Democrats want someone else to be their White House candidate. And Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), who is very likely the next senator from California, publicly said Biden should withdraw from the race.

In sum, Trump has the Republican Party united. In fact, this may be the most united we’ve seen the GOP in 20 years. Meanwhile, Democrats are stuck wondering just how long Biden will continue with his candidacy, as lawmakers privately — and increasingly publicly — try to push him out the door.

— John Bresnahan, Andrew Desiderio, Melanie Zanona, Max Cohen, Heather Caygle and Jake Sherman

CABINET WATCH

Trump’s Capitol Hill Cabinet

MILWAUKEE — One of the main parlor games here at the Republican National Convention is gaming out who in Congress would serve in a possible Trump administration.

This is an imperfect exercise. Former President Donald Trump is known to make decisions in, well, an interesting way. And, of course, Trump hasn’t won the White House yet.

So take this item as a running list of who people want in a Trump Cabinet, who people think lawmakers want, and what Trump world is thinking and talking about. And remember here: We’re only talking about Hill Republicans. Also note that Trump will only want to take senators from states with Republican governors.

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.): There’s an argument to be made that Cotton could take a pass on serving in the Trump Cabinet. He’s 47, and there’s no real reason for him to give up a Senate seat for the rough and tumble of the Trump administration. But there’s plenty of buzz that he could serve as Defense secretary or CIA director. Those are good gigs. He’d probably be in competition with Mike Pompeo for Defense secretary, among others.

Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.): Almost everyone we spoke to this week has mentioned Hagerty as a potential Treasury secretary. The case for Hagerty is he understands financial markets and, more importantly, was ambassador to Japan and understands the U.S. relationship with China. Trump, though, has floated JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon for Treasury.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.): After Rubio was passed over for vice president, he’s in line for a big job. And the big job we hear he could get is secretary of State. Rubio serves on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and is the top Republican on the Intelligence Committee. His views on foreign policy aren’t 100% aligned with Trump’s, but he’s well-respected by defense hawks and “America First” warriors alike. And clearly Rubio has had an itch to leave the Senate for some time.

Other potential high-profile landing spots for Rubio: director of the CIA or National Intelligence.

Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.): This was a curveball, but a bunch of top-ranking Republicans have mentioned Blackburn as Commerce secretary. If Trump is truly rewarding loyalty, then Blackburn deserves a prize. She’s been in lockstep with Trump for years.

Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.): Schmitt would be a natural choice for attorney general. He’s fought all of Trump’s battles on the Hill and previously served as Missouri’s attorney general. He’s carried the torch on so many issues that ignite the Trump base, from social media censorship to Covid-related mandates.

House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.): As we mentioned in the Tuesday morning edition, few expect Stefanik to stick around in Congress if Trump wins the White House. After her viral grilling of university presidents over antisemitism on campus, Stefanik could be primed for Education secretary.

Stefanik, a member of the House Intelligence Committee, is also said to be interested in serving as the ambassador to the United Nations.

Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.): We previously reported that Waltz, a former Green Beret, was eyeing a play for Defense secretary. The Florida Republican has been a White House and Pentagon policy adviser. And he was among the group of Republicans who traveled to New York to support Trump during his hush-money trial. Waltz gave an impressive speech on Wednesday focusing on how Trump comforted the family members of service members killed in Afghanistan in 2021.

Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.): An Afghanistan war veteran who lost both his legs in combat, Mast is seen as a real contender to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs. Mast also chairs “Veterans for Trump.”

Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.): House Republicans tell us that Green is seen as wanting Homeland Security. Now, this will be a big job in the Trump administration. And he’ll likely have to compete for the gig with former Trump ICE official Tom Homan, who is largely seen as the frontrunner right now.

Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.): The controversial Trump ally, who recently switched districts in the name of political survival, may apparently be interested in heading up the Interior Department. This one seems like a long-shot to us. A very long shot.

— Jake Sherman, Melanie Zanona and Andrew Desiderio

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

Pfluger talks 2024, House majority and energy policy at GOP convention

Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas) joined us in Milwaukee Wednesday for a pop-up conversation presented by ExxonMobil at Punchbowl News HQ at the Republican National Convention.

Pfluger projected confidence about House Republicans’ chances of retaining and growing their majority. The second-term lawmaker also shared his views on America’s energy policy and called for permitting reform.

Here are the key takeaways from the conversation.

2024 landscape: Pfluger said he remains “bullish” about House Republicans’ prospects in the November election. He predicted the GOP will sweep the House, Senate and White House.

Pfluger cautioned, however, that the country is no longer in an era where the balance of power in the House could swing by 30 to 40 seats. Pfluger said a GOP gain of seven to eight seats would be a “good night.” And a 13- to 14-seat swing in the party’s favor would be a “great night.”

“I do think we’re going to have the trifecta, but we’re going to have to work for it,” Pfluger added.

Pfluger also predicted that former President Donald Trump’s speech on the final night of the GOP convention tonight will be about “bringing us together” and that people will be “pleasantly surprised.” Trump has said he revised his acceptance speech after the assassination attempt on Saturday.

Energy security: Pfluger took a swing at the Biden administration for what he described as an “assault on the energy industry” in the name of clean air and water.

Pfluger said environmental goals shouldn’t be achieved at the expense of affordability and reliability for U.S. energy sources.

He took particular issue with the Biden administration’s decision to pause new liquified natural gas export approvals. He argued the United States should instead be sending LNG “all over the world.”

“If you care about the climate, we do it a lot cleaner than places like Russia,” added Pfluger, whose congressional district includes the Permian Basin, the highest producing oil field in the country.

Permitting reform: Reforms to America’s complicated permitting process have been a bipartisan dream on Capitol Hill, but there hasn’t been much progress on legislation.

Pfluger said he wants permitting reform to be part of a House GOP reconciliation package within the first six months of 2025.

Fireside chat: Later, Bart Cahir, ExxonMobil’s senior vice president for Upstream Unconventional, joined us for a fireside chat.

Cahir said the Biden administration’s pause on new LNG export approvals is “a huge mistake” that’s creating uncertainty across the board. Cahir argued that it’s possible to produce energy that’s affordable and reliable but also “responsibly” sourced.

“We see total demand for energy continuing to increase,” Cahir said. “Much of the world lives in energy poverty and we expect over time they’ll get the benefit of more reliable and affordable energy.”

Cahir also echoed Pfluger’s calls for permitting reform, arguing that companies like his need a “clear path” to know when they can get to a “yes” or “no” on a particular energy project.

“Permitting certainty is something that is critically important as an investor,” Cahir said. “They’re billion-dollar investments. We need investor certainty.”

America’s Energy: We also hosted a panel discussion in partnership with America’s Energy, featuring CEOS from the American Clean Power Association, the American Gas Association, the Edison Electric Institute and the Nuclear Energy Institute.

Watch the full conversation here. And read our recap here.

– Andrew Desiderio

THE CAMPAIGN

Hudson feeling bullish on redistricted Alabama seat that leans Democratic

MILWAUKEE – Want to get a sense of how confident House Republicans are at the moment? NRCC Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) told us this week his party has a good chance of winning a newly-drawn majority-Black district in Alabama.

Democrat Shomari Figures is running against Republican Caroleene Dobson in Alabama’s 2nd District, which is 51% Black and voted for President Joe Biden by 12 points in 2020. In the days after the new map was finalized, the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter declared it “virtually guarantees a Democratic pickup.” No longer, Hudson claimed.

“They drew it for a Democrat, but they got a fairly weak Democrat,” Hudson said of Figures, a former White House aide and DOJ official. “Caroleene Dobson’s really impressive.”

“If only a few” of the district’s Black voters back Dobson, Hudson said, then Republicans can be competitive.

The race’s tight situation isn’t necessarily a shock to Punchbowl News readers, to be fair. “People need to know that this is a race. This is not a coronation,” Figures told us in a late May interview.

Dobson grew up on an Alabama cattle farm, attended Harvard and currently is a real estate attorney. Republicans we spoke to compared Dobson to Alabama’s GOP Sen. Katie Britt. But Dobson’s challenge of winning in a blue seat is much tougher than prevailing statewide in Alabama.

Figures is also an Alabama native with deep experience in politics and most recently worked as Attorney General Merrick Garland’s deputy chief of staff. What’s more, Figures comes from a prominent Alabama family.

His mother, Vivian Davis Figures, serves in the state Senate. And his late father, Michael Anthony Figures, is well-known for suing the Ku Klux Klan and served in the state Senate.

In the money game, Dobson outraised Figures by around $50,000 in Q2 and has a $170,000 cash-on-hand advantage.

Hudson told us on Tuesday that districts that voted for Biden by double digits in 2020 are in play. Of course, we’ve heard similar big promises from GOP campaign chiefs in past cycles that haven’t rang true come November.

Democrats, unsurprisingly, are skeptical of Hudson’s claims and think Dobson is ill-suited to the blue-leaning seat.

“Is anyone surprised Richard Hudson wants another abortion banning, Project 2025 loving, Freedom Caucus wannabe to join the GOP Conference?” DCCC spokesperson Justin Chermol said in a statement.

Chermol added the DCCC is confident Figures will win and “restore fair representation to his home district.”

— Max Cohen

Rapid Canvass polling from RNC Day 3

The third day of the GOP convention focused on foreign policy. Although attendees waved red flags that declared “Trump will end the Ukraine war,” Republicans still remain deeply divided about how to approach the issue. We’ll have the full results of the survey in our Midday edition.

We stayed up all night gathering responses to Wednesday evening’s speeches at the Republican National Convention for our survey, The Canvass.

What to expect in Midday today: We checked in with senior Hill staffers and K Street leaders who are following the convention events on whether the GOP is united on key foreign policy issues, including Ukraine, energy, Israel-Palestine relations and China.

The night was also a big one for former President Donald Trump’s VP pick, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), who addressed the convention late in the evening, making the case for the Trump-Vance ticket. We wanted to know whether respondents thought Vance’s speech was effective in building support among moderate Republicans for Trump’s reelection.

Immigration — a major issue for GOP voters — was, unsurprisingly, a prominent theme in the day’s speeches. How will the heavy emphasis on immigration, especially at the southern border, affect Trump’s chances? We’ll share what respondents think.

Look out for the full results in our Midday edition today. In the meantime, you can find the results of Tuesday’s overnight poll here.

— Elvina Nawaguna

MOMENTS