The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Is J.D. Vance the GOP’s future?

Rubio & the others who were passed over

The Vault: The economic gospel according to Vance

GOP fast-tracks investigations into Trump attack

THE TOP

Is J.D. Vance the GOP’s future?

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Knowing the veep: Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) wasn’t just tapped by Donald Trump to be his running mate. Vance was hand-picked to lead Trump’s MAGA movement for a generation — and to put another nail in the coffin of the Republican Party’s old guard.

Choosing the first-term GOP senator from Ohio is a brazen middle finger to the few Trump skeptics left in the party. It’s also a sign that the Republican Party’s transformation into Trump’s mold is nearly complete.

To the extent that any Trump skeptics are left, they’re either retiring or not attending the convention. Trump didn’t feel like he needed to choose a more traditional Republican with a broader appeal, as he did in 2016. It’s another sign of his hammerlock on the GOP.

“This isn’t an ‘expand the tent’ pick, that’s for sure,” one Republican senator texted us Monday night. “He’s the intellectual engine behind Trump’s vision.”

Remember why Trump chose Mike Pence in 2016. Trump needed to reassure Republicans who were on the fence about him and unify the party. Pence was supposed to rein Trump in and prevent him from making erratic and potentially dangerous decisions as president. Vance, on the other hand, is a staunch Trump loyalist, and no elected Republican is voicing concerns — at least publicly — about him.

Trump’s pick underscores the unity Republicans feel at this particular moment. Trump just survived an assassination attempt, Democrats are in crisis over President Joe Biden’s ability to win and Trump is leading in most swing states.

The GOP convention in 2016 was far from a unifying affair. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) caused an uproar when he declined to specifically endorse Trump during his speech, while Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) famously shouted “no” on the convention floor — just to name two examples.

Cruz and Lee are now fully converted, as is nearly every elected Republican nationwide.

From Never Trump to MAGA heir-apparent: Vance’s own personal evolution is a microcosm of the party’s journey over the last decade. When Trump first ran eight years ago, Vance called him “reprehensible” and leveled other sharp criticism. He even once wondered whether Trump was “America’s Hitler.”

Today, Vance is in many ways the face of the MAGA movement on both substance and style. He’s just 39 years old — turning 40 next month — and is now in a prime position to put his mark on the Republican Party.

On policy, Vance checks all the boxes for Trump. He’s a populist conservative with a nationalist, “America First” foreign policy worldview that has drawn the ire of GOP leaders. He’s seen as someone who can connect with white, working-class voters who feel left behind, drawing on his own upbringing chronicled in his memoir “Hillbilly Elegy.”

Stylistically, Vance isn’t afraid to stick his neck out for Trump. Whether it’s defending Trump’s most controversial remarks or attacking the legal system in the wake of Trump’s multiple state and federal indictments, Vance has been the loudest and proudest. He’s also used Senate procedure to his advantage, blocking dozens of nominations on the floor in protest of the Trump prosecutions.

When asked about Trump, other Senate Republicans will dodge, deflect, say they “didn’t see the tweet,” or take a circuitous route to avoid running into reporters. Vance is always eager to fight Trump’s battles in the halls of the Capitol.

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said Vance is the “perfect match” for Trump because he brings, among other things, “loyalty” and a “deep respect for working Americans.”

Vance the senator: Vance hasn’t been in office that long — just a year and a half — but he’s already made his mark on the chamber.

Vance fit in right away with the group of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s chief antagonists. Most notably, Vance led the charge against the Ukraine aid package that Congress passed in April, drawing the ire of McConnell and other GOP defense hawks.

The Ohio Republican aligns with Trump and other conservative hardliners — especially in the House — as Ukraine-skeptics. Earlier this year, we traveled to the Munich Security Conference where Vance had his first big foray onto the world stage.

McConnell declined to comment to us last week when asked about the possibility of Vance being selected as Trump’s running mate. McConnell has said his top priority for the rest of his Senate tenure will be to try to root out the very national security doctrine that Vance espouses.

Vance has also bucked the party’s traditional deference to Big Business, having partnered with Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) on a bill to impose new regulations on the railway industry after the Norfolk Southern derailment in their state.

The freshman Republican also linked arms with Democrats on legislation taking aim at credit card companies and bank executives. He’s even praised Biden’s FTC chief.

But there’s a simple reason why you haven’t seen — and probably won’t see — any public waffling or expressions of concern from Republicans about the selection of Vance.

They want to win.

— Andrew Desiderio

The Canvass at the conventions: While we’re in Milwaukee, we’ll be polling the most influential power players from Capitol Hill and K Street for our popular survey, The Canvass. We’ll get their views on key moments from the convention in real time. Look out for the polling results in our newsletter starting Wednesday.

The Canvass provides important insider insight into the thinking of key decision-makers and policy influencers from people closest to them.

THE SENATE

Rubio & the others who were passed over

MILWAUKEE — They were seen as the future of the Republican Party, perfect VP picks for former President Donald Trump to broaden his appeal.

But in choosing Vance, Trump left behind four talented GOP members of Congress: Sens. Tim Scott (S.C.), Marco Rubio (Fla.), House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik and Rep. Byron Donalds (Fla.).

Let’s dig in to what could be next for these four Republicans.

Marco Rubio: Rubio has had a rough go of it since 2016. He and Trump were bitter rivals in the GOP primary that year and had several heated exchanges. It took a while for them to repair their relationship, but they did. The pair grew closer as of late, and Rubio was suddenly a top contender to be Trump’s running mate. Rubio and his allies were convinced up until the last minute that he’d be the pick.

We’re told by sources close to both Rubio and Trump that the two camps were in contact over the last 10 days in particular over how to resolve the residency issues that Rubio would pose for the GOP ticket. Candidates on the same ticket must reside in different states, so Rubio would have had to move out of Florida.

The conversations “revolved around whether both sides could feel 100% confident in the legal grounds on the residency question,” said one of the sources, “because nobody was interested in a protracted legal battle after the election that hinged on this question.”

That doesn’t mean that Trump would’ve otherwise chosen Rubio. But it was clear that the residency issue was a problem.

As for Rubio’s political future, he was reelected in 2022 and is just 53. If Republicans win the Senate majority, as they’re favored to do, Rubio would be in line to chair the Senate Intelligence Committee, an influential post.

Tim Scott: The only Black Senate Republican, Scott was a top contender for Trump’s VP among pundits for much of the past two years. It was never enough for the former House member. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the South Carolina Republican taking a post in a second Trump administration, though. A lot of GOP insiders take that as a given already.

Despite a presidential run, Scott still managed to lead Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee through a rough couple of years for the financial system — a miniature banking crisis in 2023 and a political implosion at a crucial banking regulator this year to name just two. In that time, we only detected Scott’s veep aspirations once or twice during banking committee hearings.

Elise Stefanik: It’s impossible to say what’s going on in a lawmaker’s head — unless they tell you themselves. But the orbit around the House Republican Conference chair wanted her to be vice president. Or at least they wanted everyone to think she was in the running.

Stefanik, 40, has now been in the House for nine years. It wouldn’t surprise us if Trump tapped her for a Cabinet post. She’s been sufficiently — read totally — loyal to Trump. Stefanik got lots of attention for her grilling of university presidents during the hearings on antisemitism. Could she be the secretary of education? Possible. Stefanik also serves on the House Intelligence Committee and has taken a larger role on the global stage. U.N. ambassador has been in Stefanik-world’s sights.

Byron Donalds: In many ways, Donalds was the most interesting choice for Trump. A popular young congressman from Florida, many in Trump’s circle believed that Donalds would’ve helped Trump make inroads with Black voters. But Donalds now seems primed for a run for governor of the Sunshine State.

— Jake Sherman, Melanie Zanona, Andrew Desiderio and Brendan Pedersen

The Vault: The economic gospel according to Vance

The heir apparent of Trumpism hasn’t been on Capitol Hill for long. But Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) has already carved out a profile in economic policy that’s far afield from many of his Senate colleagues — in both parties.

As Trump’s VP, it’s not immediately clear what kind of influence Vance would have on policy. But since it’s safe to assume the answer isn’t zero, let’s take a moment to unpack the Ohio Republican’s economic focus.

Economy: On the Senate Banking Committee, the junior senator from Ohio has frequently come into hearings with questions or interests that — for better and worse — can feel out of sync with other GOP lawmakers.

Last week — as Republican after Republican asked about the status of Basel III capital reform — Vance used his hearing time with Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell to ask whether illegal immigration was fueling housing inflation.

Vance has questioned far more basic and consequential assumptions about global finance, including the benefits of having a strong U.S. dollar. In March 2023, with Powell testifying again, Vance said the following:

A furrow-browed Powell replied in part by saying that was a “big question to try to answer.”

Banking and crypto: Vance has an unusual profile in banking policy too. He’s one of a handful of populist Republicans to support the Credit Card Competition Act — reviled by banks — along with fellow backers Sens. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.).

And more than once, Trump’s now-VP pick has allied himself with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). Warren and Vance introduced bank executive clawback legislation together in 2023, and the pair also pressed the FDIC for details about JPMorgan’s purchase of First Republic Bank in December.

On crypto, though, Vance is about as close to the center of Republican politics these days as it gets. A person familiar with the planning told us that Vance is workshopping crypto legislation even more industry friendly than what passed the House in May.

Taxes: When the Smith-Wyden tax bill was up for debate earlier this year, Vance drew interest among some supporters of the package because they felt his brand of populism could mesh with backing a child tax credit expansion. In February, Vance praised the bill’s expansion of the aid for low-income families, although he called some colleagues’ concerns about maintaining work requirements “reasonable complaints.”

Still, Vance said this about why Republicans should support the child credit:

Vance doesn’t sit on the tax-writing Finance Committee, though, so it’s not surprising he hasn’t led the introduction of too many tax bills. But Vance’s couple of forays into tax legislation — here and here — certainly align with the brand of GOP messaging he typically touts.

— Brendan Pedersen and Laura Weiss

GOP INVESTIGATIONS

GOP fast-tracks investigations into Trump attack

Rank-and-file lawmakers will begin receiving virtual briefings today from the Secret Service about the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump as committees on both sides of the Capitol investigate the shooting.

First up: The House Oversight Committee will receive a bipartisan briefing today. Oversight Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) on Monday officially noticed a hearing for July 22 with Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle.

Oversight appears to be taking the lead here for Republicans. It’s no surprise given that Comer has tried to insert himself into almost every major news cycle through his perch atop the panel. The committee also has very broad jurisdiction.

Comer sent a letter to Cheatle on Monday requesting several documents, including a complete list of all law enforcement with roles protecting Trump at the rally and all video and audio recordings in the Secret Service’s possession from the event.

Second: The House Homeland Security Committee is also expected to get a briefing from the Secret Service today or tomorrow. It was originally supposed to happen Monday but was rescheduled.

Homeland Security Committee Chair Mark Green (R-Tenn.) has also requested documents regarding the Secret Service’s security plan for the rally and intends to schedule a site visit with the FBI so members can see the area themselves. The panel is planning a hearing for next week.

We reported that Green and ranking member Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) held a call with Robert Wells, executive assistant director of the FBI’s national security branch, on Monday.

Wells told the committee leaders that the FBI has conducted nearly 100 interviews, has access to the shooter’s phone, and that the Secret Service is conducting its own review of its security protocols.

Leadership angle: Speaker Mike Johnson said Republicans are compiling a list of questions about the shooting and vowed to send a letter to Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas in the coming days. Among the questions lawmakers want answered:

→	How did the shooter come within 150 yards of Trump?

→	Was the Secret Service or other law enforcement at the event alerted by bystanders that there was someone perched on a nearby rooftop with a rifle? And if so, how did they respond?

→	Why was the building not secured or included in the security perimeter? Whose responsibility was it to secure it?

→	Was there a breakdown in communication between local law enforcement and the Secret Service?

→	Were all proper security protocols followed both before and after shots were fired?

Also: The House Judiciary Committee will hold its annual FBI oversight hearing on July 24 where Director Christopher Wray will testify.

The hearing was already expected to be highly contentious, but given the timing of Wray’s appearance, we can expect even further scrutiny on the agency.

— Melanie Zanona, Mica Soellner and Max Cohen

THE CAMPAIGN

Q2 highlights plus a new digital campaign against Frontliners

Second-quarter fundraising highlights. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the House GOP leadership-aligned super PAC, got $10 million from hedge fund billionaires Paul Singer and Ken Griffin. Miriam Adelson chipped in $5 million.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries raised $5.7 million for his victory account. Ari Emanuel donated $100,000. James and Kathryn Murdoch donated $82,600.

Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.), a top GOP target, raised a massive $2.2 million in Q2 and has $4.1 million on hand. MGP represents Washington’s 3rd District.

New ad campaign. Building America’s Future, a conservative non-profit, is targeting Democratic Frontliners with a five-figure digital ad buy. The focus is on lawmakers who voted against the SAVE Act, which requires proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections. It’s already against federal law for non-citizens to vote.

The ads are running against Democratic Reps. Angie Craig (Minn.), Marcy Kaptur (Ohio), Matt Cartwright (Pa.) and Yadira Caraveo (Colo.). Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), who doesn’t serve in a swing district, is also being hit with the ads.

The SAVE Act underscores Republicans’ attempts to put vulnerable Democrats on the spot about immigration and the crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border.

“They want illegals voting in our elections, and by opposing the SAVE Act, they’re making it easier,” the ad says. “Democrats oppose the SAVE Act. They can’t be trusted to keep our country or our elections safe.”

Building America’s Future has done several other ad buys hammering Democrats on the border.

— Mica Soellner

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