The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Dems: Harris gives us ‘a fighting chance.’ But will that be enough?

What vulnerable Hill Dems are saying

Secret Service director in hot seat as House GOP readies task force

What we’re watching

The Canvass RNC recap: Most prefer Youngkin over Vance for VP

THE TOP

Dems: Harris gives us ‘a fighting chance.’ But will that be enough?

Happy Monday morning.

President Joe Biden’s earthshaking decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race and Democrats’ 105-day sprint to Election Day with a brand new ticket will dominate this week on Capitol Hill.

Most of the Democratic Party’s key figures on the Hill are rallying around Vice President Kamala Harris. We anticipate that in the next few days, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will follow suit. Other Democratic leaders will get on board the “Kamala Train” as early as this morning.

Harris has already filed the FEC report for her presidential campaign. A large number of governors, members and senators are endorsing her, and by Sunday night, delegates from a handful of states pledged to back Harris, with more expected to do so today. Democratic state party committees are pro-Harris too. DNC officials have promised “a transparent and orderly process” to select the new nominee.

Here’s how Hill Democrats think about Harris. Is Harris a perfect candidate? No, no one is. Is she better than Biden? Yes, according to many Democrats, at least in the sense that it gives the party a fighting chance of defeating former President Donald Trump and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) in November. Democrats hope that Harris chooses a vice presidential candidate who energizes voters, giving the party a boost going into the final months of the campaign.

Democratic supporters donated $50 million to candidates Sunday after Biden dropped out.

The most optimistic take here is that Democrats can now refocus the debate back on Trump and his fitness to return to the Oval Office rather than fielding constant questions about their internal disarray. The less hopeful view is that neither Harris nor Biden can beat a surging Trump and this is just changing deck chairs on the Titanic.

How the leadership is handling this. Hill Democratic leaders are sensitive to the criticism that this could turn out to be a coronation of Harris by party bosses without any input from voters or other key stakeholders. While it’s clear that the party is coalescing around Harris, the leadership doesn’t want to be seen as stacking the deck for her quite yet.

This line also keeps the pressure off of senators and House members in tough races — for now. Over the coming days, you’ll hear these lawmakers try to keep the focus on their own races even as they privately evaluate the impact of Harris taking over for Biden at the top of the ticket. We have more on the vulnerable Democrats below.

The most VP candidates. It’s still early, but the Hill is already buzzing about who Harris could choose as her running mate. The most prominent names being discussed are red- and purple-state governors like Roy Cooper (N.C.), Andy Beshear (Ky.) and Josh Shapiro (Pa.). Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), one of the most influential Hill Democrats, mentioned Cooper, Beshear, Shapiro and unnamed business leaders as potential VP candidates during an appearance on CNN Sunday night.

But another candidate getting a lot of attention — in Democratic circles but also among those close to Harris, we’re told — is Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.).

There’s no doubt that Kelly has a solid resume. During his 25 years as a pilot in the Navy, Kelly flew dozens of combat missions as well as four trips to space for NASA’s space shuttle program.

Plus, Kelly has shown he can win in a critical swing state. And Kelly already does a lot of surrogate work for the Biden-Harris campaign, including with Harris herself. For example, Kelly appeared with Harris for a rally in Las Vegas the day after Biden’s disastrous debate performance on June 27, the event that triggered the president’s fall.

One of the risks with Kelly, per Democrats we’ve spoken with, would be his political inexperience relative to the other potential choices. But we’re told there’s long been contact between the two camps’ political operations, and Kelly is sure to be on Harris’ shortlist along with the aforementioned governors.

Harris’ Hill allies. Harris’ closest Democratic allies on the Hill include Sens. Alex Padilla (Calif.), who succeeded her in the Senate, Cory Booker (N.J.), Catherine Cortez Masto (Nev.) and Patty Murray (Wash.). Reps. Barbara Lee (Calif.), Joyce Beatty (Ohio) and Jared Huffman (Calif.) are part of the inner circle too.

“It’s a former prosecutor versus a convicted felon,” Huffman told us Sunday. “This is Trump’s worst nightmare.”

Huffman added: “She’s tested, vetted and proven. Plus, she’s been kicking butt on the campaign trail.”

Harris was phoning senators on Sunday afternoon and evening, we’re told, including Padilla. Harris and Padilla have known each other for a long time, and Padilla is viewed as Harris’ top Senate supporter.

The whip operation. Harris spent a bunch of time Sunday talking to members of the House and Senate about her candidacy. Harris personally called CBC Chair Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), CHC Chair Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.), CAPAC Chair Judy Chu (D-Calif.), New Dem Chair Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) and CPC Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.). All five are backing her.

As of now, Harris hasn’t announced any plans to come to meet with House or Senate Democrats as a group. But she’ll have locked down most of the important figures in the Capitol by later today or tomorrow anyway, so it may not be necessary. As a reminder, the Senate isn’t back in town until Tuesday evening, while the House returns today.

On a separate note: We’re also keeping tabs on what Senate Democratic leaders will do about Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), who was convicted last week on all 16 counts in his federal bribery and corruption trial. A defiant Menendez has resisted calls to resign, and the Senate Ethics Committee will soon make its official recommendation. We could very well see an expulsion resolution on the floor at some point if Menendez doesn’t relent.

— Andrew Desiderio, Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

NEW: Join us in Baltimore on Monday, July 29 at 10:45 a.m. ET for an interview with Maryland Democratic Gov. Wes Moore. Punchbowl News founders Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman will sit down with Moore to discuss the small business ecosystem in Maryland and the state’s economic future. This event is a part of the series, “Small Business, America’s Future,” presented by Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses Voices.

RSVP here to join us in-person or on the livestream!

FRONTLINE WATCH

What vulnerable Hill Dems are saying

With Vice President Kamala Harris rapidly locking down key endorsements in her bid to claim the Democratic presidential nomination, we wanted to take a look at how Frontline Democrats are responding.

It’s a mixed bag. While Harris has won the backing of Senate Democrats running in some must-win battleground states, red-state Senate Democrats are split. Over in the House, roughly two-thirds of DCCC Frontliners still haven’t weighed in yet.

Here’s a deeper look.

The Senate: A number of Senate Democrats running in top battleground races have endorsed Harris.

Chief among them are Sens. Bob Casey (Pa.), Tammy Baldwin (Wis.), Jacky Rosen (Nev.), Martin Heinrich (N.M.) and Sherrod Brown (Ohio), along with Reps. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.). Brown is notable here because he represents ruby red Ohio.

Keeping his powder dry for the moment: Jon Tester (D-Mont.).

The House: Here are the Frontliners who’ve backed Harris so far: Reps. Susie Lee (D-Nev.), Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.), Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.), Dina Titus (D-Nev.), Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.), Mike Levin (D-Calif.), Andrea Salinas (D-Ore.), Val Hoyle (D-Ore.) and Susan Wild (D-Pa.).

This is roughly one-third of the total Frontline class.

Democratic sources we spoke to emphasized that it’s still early in the process and many endangered incumbents aren’t focusing on the next steps right away. As such, more members could follow suit and endorse Harris as it becomes increasingly clear that she’ll be the nominee.

But there are still plenty of House Democrats who aren’t quite on the Harris train yet.

Here’s Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) for example. “The President’s decision today will allow for the next generation of party leadership to step forward and address the unique and pressing challenges facing our country,” Craig said in a statement.

Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.), who went as far as calling on Biden to resign from office over concerns about his mental fitness, simply said “the next president must clearly be fit enough to do the job.”

Several other Frontline Democrats also didn’t mention Harris in their statements following Biden’s announcement. That could obviously change this week as Democrats huddle for caucus and other discussions.

– Max Cohen and Mica Soellner

HOUSE INVESTIGATIONS

Secret Service director in hot seat as House GOP readies task force

The House Oversight Committee will hold a high-profile hearing today with Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle about the assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump, which has quickly become a top investigative target for the GOP.

The Secret Service is facing its biggest crisis in decades as the security failures surrounding the Trump campaign rally have started to come to light. And it’s about to get even tougher for the embattled agency, which will have a lot to answer to from lawmakers in both parties over the coming days and weeks.

Cheatle’s testimony comes in the wake of an explosive report from the Washington Post over the weekend that the Secret Service denied repeated requests from Trump’s detail for more protection at events in the two years leading up to last weekend’s rally, contrary to the agency’s initial denials.

During today’s hearing, House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) will reiterate his calls for Cheatle to resign, according to excerpts of his opening statement Punchbowl News obtained. Here’s Comer:

House Democrats also have said they have their own questions that need to be answered, and party leaders have privately signaled they’re not going to defend the Secret Service leadership here. At least one Democrat, Rep. Brendan Boyle (Pa.), has so far called on Cheatle to step down.

Cheatle, for her part, will frankly acknowledge during her opening statement that the Secret Service “failed” on July 13 in its “solemn mission is to protect our nation’s leaders.”

“As the director of the United States Secret Service, I take full responsibility for any security lapse,” Cheatle will say. “We will cooperate with the pending external review and the DHS Office of the Inspector General.”

A bipartisan group of House Homeland Security Committee members, led by chair Mark Green (R-Tenn.), will visit the site of the Trump rally shooting in Butler, Pa., today. The group includes ranking member Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.).

Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas also named a bipartisan panel to undertake its own 45-day, independent review of the Secret Service’s and local authorities’ actions. This panel includes former DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano; Frances Townsend, former Homeland Security Adviser to President George W. Bush; Mark Filip, a former federal judge and deputy AG under Bush; and David Mitchell, former head of the Maryland State Police. Mayorkas could add more picks to the panel, DHS said.

Task force news: House Republicans have added a vote this week to create a task force to investigate the Trump assassination attempt. Here’s the resolution, which mandates a 6-5 split between Republicans and Democrats on the panel. Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.) is the lead author on the resolution.

We expect this resolution to pick up some bipartisan support.

– Melanie Zanona, Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

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What we’re watching

Monday: Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle is slated to be in front of the House Oversight Committee to talk about the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump. The House Rules Committee will prepare a number of FY 2025 appropriations bills for floor consideration, including Energy and Water and Interior. We expect action on Agriculture and FSGG will be delayed.

Tuesday: The House Financial Services Committee will have a hearing on AI in financial services and housing. Representatives from NASDAQ, Zillow and Scale AI will testify.

The House Homeland Security Committee will have a hearing on the attempted assassination of Trump.

Wednesday: The House Judiciary Committee will have an oversight hearing with FBI Director Chris Wray.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will address a joint meeting of Congress.

Thursday: The House Agriculture Committee has a hearing with stakeholders about reauthorizing the CFTC.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will have a closed briefing about international support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Brian Lessenberry, the deputy assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research is the briefer.

– Jake Sherman

The Canvass RNC recap: Most prefer Youngkin over Vance for VP

We took our popular survey, The Canvass, to the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee last week.

Our rapid overnight and morning polling of senior congressional staffers and K Street leaders who were following the RNC speakers provided immediate reactions to the speeches and events that dominated the convention.

Here are some of the most surprising results from the RNC Canvass poll conducted in partnership with independent firm LSG.

→

Most thought Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump should have picked Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin as his running mate instead of Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio). Nearly 80% disapproved of the Vance pick. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Sens. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) all fared better than Vance in the poll.

→	Most thought Haley had been the most effective of all former Trump rivals who spoke in uniting the party behind him. Respondents also picked her as the next-best choice after Youngkin for VP.

→	Just one-third of respondents (34%) thought Trump’s 90-minute speech would help his reelection chances. Nearly half thought it would neither help nor hurt.

→	At the end of the convention, most thought Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer would be the best Democrat to beat Trump if President Joe Biden stepped aside. He did two days after the poll. A majority predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris would replace him atop the ticket.

→	Overall, about half (51%) thought the convention was effective in appealing to moderates and swing voters and 71% said Trump will win in November.

In case you missed our daily recaps, you can find them here and the full results here.

The Canvass will also be at the Democratic National Convention next month, so be sure to follow along.

Want more behind the scenes details of our time covering the Republican National Convention? Check out this weekend’s Readback newsletter for a glimpse into what we saw and heard in Milwaukee. And we’ll be headed to Chicago for the Democratic National Convention next month. Let us know if you are interested in attending the Punchbowl News HQ on Aug. 21.

— Elvina Nawaguna

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