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What the Senate will do for the rest of the summer

Bucking recent history, Romney’s successor won’t be a MAGA darling

Hill staffers predict Democratic wins in Ariz., Penn. and Wis.

Waltz for Defense secretary?

THE TOP

What the Senate will do for the rest of the summer

Happy Friday morning.

President Joe Biden will launch the “I’m-not-going-anywhere-but-I-do-need-more-sleep” tour today in Wisconsin. In addition to appearing in Madison, Biden will do interviews with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos and some radio reporters. Biden will be in Pennsylvania on Sunday.

Biden used the “I’m not going anywhere” line on Thursday evening at the White House. He and Vice President Kamala Harris joined hands as they watched the July 4th fireworks. There were chants of “Four more years.” The symbolism isn’t lost on anyone.

Biden’s campaign this morning announced a new $50 million paid media buy in battleground states for July, plus $17 million for grassroots organizing. Biden will head to Las Vegas as counter-programming to the RNC convention in mid-July. The campaign says there will be a Southwest swing as well.

But the wave of unrest inside the party continues. Mega donors are openly talking about dumping Biden for Harris or another candidate. While there’s speculation that the majority of Hill Democrats want Biden out, it’s impossible to know that until lawmakers return next week.

Senate summer lookahead: The Senate has just three more in-session weeks before the August recess. Next week, the floor will be jammed up with an abortion messaging vote and some nominations. Several senators will be attending the annual NATO summit taking place in downtown D.C.

But the final two weeks before the summer break are fairly open-ended at this point, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will have some important decisions to make about what hits the floor.

Schumer could choose one of two paths:

→	A continuation of the Senate’s summer of “show” votes, with nomination votes sprinkled in.

→	Try to pass one of the many long-stalled bipartisan bills Schumer has been wanting to get done.

There are benefits and drawbacks for each, as well as the obvious political considerations in an election year. These are even more potent now as Democrats fret over Biden’s prospects in November.

The “show” vote strategy: If Schumer chooses this path, the biggest beneficiary would be Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), one of the party’s most vulnerable incumbents.

That’s because two of the bills that could get a vote — the Wyden-Smith tax bill and the railway safety bill — have direct Ohio connections.

The expectation is that both would fail, although this strategy would give Brown some much-needed campaign fodder heading into the August recess. The tax bill includes an extension of the child tax credit, which Brown has long championed, as well as R&D tax relief.

While the tax bill passed the House earlier this year with broad GOP support, nearly every Senate Republican opposes it, as do a handful of Democrats.

Meanwhile, the rail safety bill was drafted in direct response to the Norfolk Southern train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, last year. Brown’s fellow Ohioan, GOP Sen. J.D. Vance, is a co-sponsor of the bill, and a handful of other Republicans back it.

But Republican leaders strongly oppose the measure, arguing it creates unnecessary and overly burdensome federal regulations, meaning it’s unlikely to overcome a filibuster.

While Brown would obviously prefer that both of these bills pass, a “show” vote on each is the next best thing when considering his difficult political situation.

Get something done: Schumer’s other option is to use the two weeks of floor time to actually pass something. For the last year-plus, Schumer has been promising floor action on various bills that would easily clear the 60-vote threshold.

Yet Schumer is also hesitant to burn through several days of floor time on legislation that’s overwhelmingly bipartisan. The Kids Online Safety Act, for example, has more than 70 co-sponsors. And the RECOUP Act — which deals with bank executive clawbacks — cleared the Senate Banking Committee, which Brown chairs, with just two dissenters.

Schumer has tried to set up a quick vote on KOSA, although there were still objections prior to the Senate’s recess. Without a unanimous consent agreement, the Senate would need to use about a week of floor time to pass KOSA. The RECOUP Act would require a similar amount of floor time. Both could cut into the time used for nominations.

However, it’s fair to say that social media crackdowns are much more top-of-mind for Americans, so KOSA would likely be the priority here. That bill would require social media platforms to take steps to shield children from harmful content online.

The GOP view: They obviously don’t control what happens on the floor, but Senate Republican leaders have condemned the “show” vote strategy as an effort to divide their party and boost vulnerable Democratic incumbents.

A critical aspect of the GOP pushback has been to call for Schumer to instead use floor time on the annual defense authorization bill. The Armed Services Committee sent it to the floor last month.

Republicans have cited Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to North Korea as a reason to move swiftly on the must-pass bill, which includes a $25 billion topline increase. We wrote last month about why it’ll be difficult for lawmakers to enact this boost as part of the annual appropriations process.

— Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

Bucking recent history, Romney’s successor won’t be a MAGA darling

We’ve written a lot over the years about the “Trumpification” of the Senate Republican Conference and the overall erosion of the deal-making middle in the Senate.

The last few election cycles have seen the departure of several old-guard GOP senators, only to be replaced by Republicans more in the mold of former President Donald Trump. We’ve also seen retirements of senators in both parties who were crucial to some of the most high-profile bipartisan deals of the last decade.

Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah) is on the cusp of bucking that trend.

Curtis is the GOP nominee in this year’s contest to replace the retiring Republican Sen. Mitt Romney, who hasn’t been afraid to call out his party’s rightward drift and isn’t supporting Trump. Romney was also central to many of the bipartisan achievements that defined the first two years of Joe Biden’s presidency.

If Curtis defeats his Democratic opponent in November — as is expected in the deep-red state — Romney’s seat won’t be filled by a Trump-loving Republican.

It would go to a little-known, four-term House member and former Democrat who defeated a Trump-endorsed candidate in the GOP primary and has been forward-leaning on climate and energy policy, while also seeking out cross-party partnerships.

“Given the choice between serving in the Senate or spending time with my grandkids, the decision was clear,” Curtis, 64, told us. “I am only willing to serve if I can approach it with a mindset focused on solving difficult problems. Otherwise, I will choose to spend my time with my family.”

Curtis is facing off against Democrat Caroline Gleich, a climate activist. Curtis, who co-founded the House’s Conservative Climate Caucus a few years ago, recently snagged the endorsement of the Environmental Defense Fund’s political arm.

“I have carved out a niche for myself in the energy and climate space, and naturally, I am eager to be involved in addressing this pressing issue,” Curtis said, adding that there’s “a place for everyone, including conservatives,” in the climate policy conversation.

Of course, this isn’t something you usually hear from Republicans elected to the Senate these days.

National security: Curtis also wants to position himself as a leading voice in the GOP on national security issues, particularly China. Curtis is Mormon and spent two years living in Taiwan during his mission.

“We can have a productive relationship with China, but only if we demand a relationship that no longer turns a blind eye to them taking advantage of us,” Curtis said. “They steal our intellectual property, pollute the environment and disregard basic human rights.”

Curtis emphasized to us that his qualms are not with the Chinese people, but rather with the Chinese Communist Party. This is a refrain we often hear from Democrats who warn that much of the rhetoric in Western countries about China’s aggression could lead to acts of hate directed toward people of Chinese heritage.

A contrast: It’s safe to say that Curtis, if elected to the Senate, will operate very differently from Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah).

Lee is one of the most conservative members of the Senate and is a vocal critic of his party’s leaders when they compromise with Democrats.

Curtis, however, routinely emphasizes the need to find common ground and noted to us that the majority of his tenure in the House has been under a divided government.

— Andrew Desiderio

Hill staffers predict Democratic wins in Ariz., Penn. and Wis.

A majority of senior staffers in both parties believe Democrats will win the Senate races in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The survey was conducted June 3-21 in partnership with independent public affairs firm, LSG.

According to our survey of Capitol Hill aides, staffers are split by party on who will win in Maryland, Montana, Nevada and Ohio.

Montana and Ohio are highly competitive races that Republicans could win and retake the Senate majority.

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is facing off against Republican Tim Sheehy. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is being challenged by Republican Bernie Moreno.

In Arizona, the race to replace independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is underway with Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) facing off against either Kari Lake, Mark Lamb, Elizabeth Reye or Dustin Williams. Primary day is July 30.

Former President Donald Trump has endorsed Lake but he has also expressed doubt about her prospects of winning.

Also: Here is the one-pager summing up the results of this month’s Canvass survey. Here is the full poll and the slide deck.

Want to take part in The Canvass? Our survey provides anonymous monthly insights from top Capitol Hill staffers and K Street leaders on key issues Washington is dealing with. Sign up here if you work on K Street. Click here to sign up if you’re a senior congressional staffer.

— Robert O’Shaughnessy

TRUMP TRAIN

Waltz for Defense secretary?

Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) could be eyeing a play for defense secretary if former President Donald Trump wins the White House.

The former Green Beret told us he was open to the post if Trump wants him for a new administration. Waltz cited his longtime military and policy experience as key assets for the job.

“I’ve worked in the Pentagon. I’ve worked in the White House and now on the committees. I’ve obviously been in the military for 27 years. I’ve helped advise [Trump] on national security issues and if the president calls, the president calls,” Waltz said.

Waltz is the first Green Beret elected to Congress and a retired colonel in the National Guard. The Florida Republican was also a White House and Pentagon policy advisor. He came to Congress initially in 2018.

Notably, we saw Waltz join members of the House Freedom Caucus in New York in May to support Trump during his hush-money trial.

Waltz did say, however, that he’s staying focused on helping Trump win in November above all else.

“It’s an age-old problem in Washington when people start measuring the curtains for Cabinet,” Waltz said. “All we got to be focused on is six swing states and helping him win.”

— Mica Soellner

THE CAMPAIGN

UDP, the AIPAC-linked super PAC, is up with a tough ad against Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.). The ad accuses Bush of spending her time clashing with President Joe Biden and failing to help the residents of St. Louis. It notes Bush’s vote against the infrastructure bill as an example. Bush is running against Wesley Bell in a primary.

Maggie Goodlander is running her first ad in her race for Congress in New Hampshire. Goodlander is a former Biden administration official. She is also the wife of Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser.

Raquel Terán, who’s running to succeed Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), is up with an ad where she touts her endorsement from Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.). Terán also says she stood up to “MAGA extremists” in the state legislature and as Arizona Democratic Party chair.

Biden is running a new ad keyed off the Supreme Court decision to give former President Donald Trump immunity from prosecution over “official” acts. The ad draws a parallel with America being founded “in defiance” of a king. The ad says Trump should never hold the presidency again. This spot is running in Milwaukee, Madison, Wis., La Crosse-Eau Claire, Wis., Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo-Battle Creek, Mich., Philadelphia and Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York and Erie, Pa.

— Jake Sherman and Max Cohen

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