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Biden’s hold on Democrats weakens

3 big moments for Biden and Dems this week

What we’re watching

BPI launches tax group ahead of big year on taxes

THE TOP

Biden’s hold on Democrats weakens

Happy Monday morning.

Big Punchbowl News news: Melanie Zanona is joining Punchbowl News as a senior congressional reporter. Hiring Mel was an absolute no-brainer. She’s one of the best journalists on Capitol Hill.

Mel understands the Hill’s personalities, power dynamics and politics. Plus, she’s a pro at breaking news. Many of us worked with Mel at Politico, we all competed against her at CNN and we couldn’t be more thrilled that she’ll be joining our team effective tomorrow.

Now let’s get into it. Congress is back, with both the House and Senate voting this evening. President Joe Biden will be at the NATO summit and an AFL-CIO meeting this week before heading to Michigan on Friday.

Biden’s support is eroding. The president’s backing among Hill Democrats — especially inside the House Democratic Caucus — is slipping. The questions at this point are whether that support completely collapses and, if it does, what Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will do.

So far, the two top Democrats have said little. Schumer said he backs Biden, while Jeffries acknowledged Biden’s debate performance was bad but added “I believe a setback is nothing more than a setup for a comeback.”

There’s been some extravagant speculation that Schumer and Jeffries would somehow lead a high-level Democratic delegation to the White House and tell Biden he needs to step aside in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris. That’s all wildly premature. We’re nowhere near that yet.

What’s fair to say is there’s a split among Democrats — House vs. Senate, swing districts vs. safe seats, veteran lawmakers vs. their younger colleagues. None of this falls along typical fault lines, however, which makes the situation incredibly difficult to read. But it’s clear that Biden’s support among Hill Democrats is tenuous at best.

We scooped Sunday that four senior House Democrats — Reps. Jerry Nadler (N.Y.), Adam Smith (Wash.), Joe Morelle (N.Y.) and Mark Takano (Calif.) — told colleagues during a private leadership call that Biden should step aside as the party’s 2024 nominee.

Several other Democrats expressed strong doubts about whether Biden can win, although they stopped short of saying the president should leave the ticket. This includes Reps. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) and Jamie Raskin (D-Md.). Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) — who just held a fundraiser with Biden — said this during the call:

Beyer also said Biden “has trouble putting two sentences together.” Beyer later issued a statement saying in part: “I support President Biden.”

Other House Democrats who have called on Biden to give up his reelection bid include Reps. Angie Craig (Minn.), Seth Moulton (Mass.), Lloyd Doggett (Texas), Raúl Grijalva (Ariz.) and Mike Quigley (Ill.).

There’s also a significant number of House Democrats upset with the White House and Biden campaign for “gaslighting” them and trying to downplay the seriousness of the challenge Biden faces now, multiple lawmakers and aides said.

Meanwhile, a group of Senate Democrats who wanted to hold a private meeting on Biden’s candidacy as soon as Monday evening aren’t expected to get together after all, according to a source familiar with the matter.

The group, led by Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), decided against moving forward after news of the effort leaked out. Democratic senators haven’t been nearly as vocal about Biden as their House counterparts, so stay tuned for more as they return to the Capitol today.

The Biden campaign noted that a number of Democrats backed Biden over the weekend, including Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) and Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), plus Reps. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio), Nikema Williams (D-Ga.), Al Green (D-Texas), Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.), Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), John Garamendi (D-Calif.), Robert Garcia (D-Calif.), Frederica Wilson (D-Fla.) and Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.).

Biden also has made 20 calls to Hill Democrats since the debate, per a Biden campaign official.

The campaign has added more travel for the president in a bid to counter some of the internal party drama. Biden will head to Detroit on July 12 and Austin, Texas, on July 15, followed by Las Vegas for the NAACP and UnidosUS conference.

Other issues to watch this week: The Republican convention is next week in Milwaukee. There’s intense speculation about who former President Donald Trump is going to pick as his running mate. Republican Sens. J.D. Vance (Ohio) and Marco Rubio (Fla.) are among the leading contenders.

The House is scheduled to vote on the SAFE Act, a measure by Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) to require proof of U.S. citizenship for voters.

And Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) says she’ll bring up her inherent contempt resolution against Attorney General Merrick Garland for refusing to turn over the audiotapes of Special Counsel Robert Hur’s interviews with Biden. Luna is proposing to fine Garland personally $10,000 each day he doesn’t turn over the audiotapes. There are huge problems here constitutionally, meaning this will end up in federal court if it passes.

— John Bresnahan, Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and Heather Caygle

DEMS IN CRISIS

3 big moments for Biden and Dems this week

Facing an ongoing crisis over whether President Joe Biden should remain their 2024 nominee, skittish Hill Democrats will return to the Capitol today as the fallout over the president’s debate debacle continues.

Biden and his top aides have desperately tried to counter the emerging narratives that Biden is incapable of winning another term or of serving as president — or both. In addition to his high-profile interview with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on Friday, Biden was in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania over the last few days. He’ll be in Michigan, Texas and Nevada over the next two weeks, with more events possible.

But Biden desperately needs to find ways to unite congressional Democrats, who will be paying close attention to his every move. Biden must alleviate their deep reservations about his mental acuity and ability to win on Election Day. Here are some high-profile moments we’ll be watching closely this week.

The NATO Summit: Biden will be front and center this week as dozens of NATO’s leaders gather in Washington for the alliance’s annual summit.

Several Democrats told us over the weekend that they view the three-day gathering as a major opportunity for Biden to demonstrate that he’s up for the job.

Not only will Biden likely face unscripted moments with world leaders, but he’ll also have a press conference on Thursday as the summit wraps up. Democrats are looking to these types of settings to evaluate whether Biden should remain their party’s nominee.

Expanding NATO and supporting Ukraine have been key pillars of Biden’s foreign policy pitch to voters. So the summit will allow Biden to talk up his national security record and, perhaps more importantly, rally behind Ukraine — something that unites Democrats.

This year’s summit will be a celebratory affair, too, with the alliance marking its 75th anniversary. This is another way for Biden to use the summit to his advantage. Biden has helped to strengthen and enlarge NATO while former President Donald Trump has talked about pulling out of the alliance.

On the Senate floor: Biden is obviously eager to talk about anything but the eroding support for his candidacy among Democrats. On the Senate floor this week, Democrats will hold another abortion-related “show” vote.

This was scheduled well before Biden’s disastrous performance in the debate. But it’s convenient timing because it allows Democrats to discuss an issue that unites them the last two election cycles.

It’s also a central theme of Biden’s campaign, as well as Democrats running in competitive Senate and House seats.

Caucus meetings: As we explained above, this week is going to be critical in part because it’s the first time all Hill Democrats are gathering in one place since the debate. They’ve been having nonstop conversations by phone the last 10 days, but that’s no replacement for in-person meetings.

In addition to the informal Senate and House floor conversations during votes tonight, Democrats in each chamber will have full caucus meetings Tuesday. House Democrats will meet first thing in the morning, while senators will have their weekly caucus lunch at 12:45 p.m.

— Andrew Desiderio

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What we’re watching

Monday: The House Rules Committee will meet at 4 p.m. to prepare several bills for floor consideration. This includes the FY2025 Legislative Branch spending bill, the Refrigerator Freedom Act and Stop Unaffordable Dishwasher Standards Act.

Tuesday: The House Energy and Commerce Committee will have a hearing on the FCC’s budget.

The Senate Banking Committee will have a hearing on the Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report with Fed Chair Jay Powell. The House Financial Services Committee will have Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the international financial system.

The Senate Budget Committee will have a hearing with CBO Director Phillip Swagel on the updated budget and economic outlook.

The House Energy and Commerce Committee will have a hearing on the FTC’s budget.

Wednesday: The House Financial Services Committee will have a hearing with Powell.

Thursday: The Senate Banking Committee will hold a nomination hearing for Christy Goldsmith Romero, the administration’s nominee to be chair of the FDIC; Caroline Crenshaw, to be an SEC commissioner; Kristin Johnson, to be an assistant secretary of Treasury for financial institutions; and Gordon Ito to be a member of the Financial Stability Oversight Council.

— Jake Sherman

JOB MOVES

BPI launches tax group ahead of big year on taxes

BPI, the gigantic public affairs firm, is launching a tax group ahead of the expiration of a host of critical tax provisions in 2025.

The group will be led by Scott Mulhauser, a BPI partner, and Adam Hodge. Mulhauser is a well-known figure around D.C. He was a top staffer for former Senate Finance Committee Chair Max Baucus (D-Mont.) before serving as Baucus’ chief of staff at the U.S. embassy in Beijing. Mulhauser was also a top aide to Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo.

Hodge is a former senior vice president at Ariel Investments, a top investment company based in Chicago. He also worked at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the National Security Council in the Biden administration.

Here’s BPI’s announcement:

– Jake Sherman

THE CAMPAIGN

News: Sam Liccardo, a Democrat running to succeed retiring Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.) in California’s 16th District, raised $1.6 million in the second quarter of 2024 and has $1.9 million on hand.

Liccardo, the former mayor of San Jose, Calif., is running against fellow Democrat Evan Low in the general election for the deep-blue seat. Liccardo is backed by CHC BOLD PAC and the New Dem Action Fund.

More funding news: New York GOP Rep. Mike Lawler raised $1.5 million in the second quarter and has $3.9 million on hand. The freshman Republican has raised $5.6 million this cycle. Lawler will face former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) in November.

Debate ad: America Next has a new ad that uses President Joe Biden’s debate flub that he “beat Medicare.” The ad is running in D.C., Los Angeles, New York and Philadelphia.

— Max Cohen and Jake Sherman

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