The Archive
Every issue of the Punchbowl News newsletter, including our special editions, right here at your fingertips.
Join the community, and get the morning edition delivered straight to your inbox.
August 2, 2022
Presented by Wells Fargo
At Wells Fargo, we cover more rural markets than many large banks, and nearly 30% of our branches are in low- or moderate-income census tracts. What we say, we do. See how.
PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Tuesday morning.
As the Senate comes in today, the schedule for this week – and potentially next week too – is still up in the air. “Fluid” is a good description. The Democrats’ $740 billion reconciliation package, the PACT Act and NATO expansion are all in play. Let’s talk about the latter two first, then we’ll do a deeper dive into reconciliation.
NATO: Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) is pushing for the Senate to take up the resolution approving Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO before the chamber begins debate on the Democrats’ reconciliation package.
Despite overwhelming support for the two nations joining NATO, this won’t be possible unless Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer can get consent from all 100 senators, of course. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is strongly supportive of quick action, as is Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, the top Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee. Risch said so again on Monday night.
But there are some opponents of Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO, including Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who may want amendment votes. With as many as 95 senators in favor of NATO expansion, any amendment would be easily voted down, which means a time agreement is possible.
Will the vote happen this week? Unclear. But it’s in play right now.
PACT Act: The veterans’ health bill has become a major political flashpoint after Senate Republicans blocked cloture on the legislation last week. This caused an uproar from veterans’ groups, who are demanding that Congress approve the $280 billion package immediately. Schumer has said he’s going to force another cloture vote this week.
Concerned about how the legislation is structured – and what it may mean for the price tag of other, non-veteran programs down the road – Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) is pushing for an amendment to shift a portion of the bill from mandatory to discretionary spending. The Pennsylvania Republican wants this amendment taken up at a 50-vote threshold, while Schumer is saying it has to be 60 votes, like the overall bill. We expect this to get worked out, possibly as early as today. Republicans are playing a bad hand here, and we don’t expect they’ll want to keep playing it. In other words, even if they don’t get what they want on the Toomey amendment, we think this will get worked out.
Reconciliation: This is the big one. Senate Democrats are scrambling to pass the long-awaited legislation as quickly as possible, giving themselves and President Joe Biden a big win in the process. There’s hope that the Senate could begin a vote-a-rama later in the week, possibly this weekend, but the situation is confusing.
Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) wouldn’t divulge much about Democrats’ progress with the Senate parliamentarian, other than to say he’d barely left his desk since Thursday.
Yet it seems that the Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough hasn’t even issued full guidance for the Medicare prescription drug pricing section of the package yet, and that review has been going on for more than a week. So it’s unclear how long the rest of the “Byrd bath” for this package will take. The Byrd Rule controls reconciliation in the Senate.
Here’s Wyden:
More Wyden:
When asked whether the vote-a-rama will happen this week, Wyden responded, “We’re committed to doing it. Obviously, we’ve got a lot of work to do.”
Idaho Sen. Mike Crapo, the top Republican on the Finance Committee, confirmed much of this. Crapo said Monday night that he and his staff still have no idea on the timeline for vetting the tax and climate portions of the bill with the parliamentarian. All Byrd reviews are done on a bipartisan basis.
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), who serves in leadership, said Schumer may call up the reconciliation package and begin debate on the measure while the Byrd bath is still ongoing. There are 20 hours of debate equally divided between the two sides once the motion to proceed is adopted, meaning Democrats have a little bit of leeway before a vote-a-rama starts.
Schumer is pressing very hard to get this all done by the end of the week. After waiting 18 months to get here, with potential victory so close, and senators anxious to get back home to campaign before the midterm election, the New York Democrat is putting enormous pressure on his colleagues and staffers to wrap it up as soon as possible.
We’re also starting to get an idea about what kind of amendments Republicans are going to offer during the vote-a-rama (it’s never “vote-arama,” as others may spell it, by the way). Crapo said he’s focusing on the JCT analysis that estimates the bill includes $16.7 billion worth of tax increases on Americans making $200,000 or less.
It’s worth remembering that vote-a-ramas can last several days and include dozens of amendment votes. Also, the budget resolution used for this reconciliation package is extremely broad, covering a huge array of government programs, meaning the potential for GOP amendments in this case could be equally extensive.
| → | And here’s an exclusive look at a letter from 286 immigration, civil rights, business and labor groups warning against potential “poison pill” immigration-related amendments that could sink the bill. This is a big issue. Our friend Greg Sargent at the Washington Post has written on this issue. |
“We urge you to vote in ways that protect immigrants and VOTE NO against any anti-immigrant amendments presented for this bill. Adopting anti-immigrant amendments to the Inflation Reduction Act will likely bring forth challenges to the passage of this important legislation,” the organizations wrote.
The groups that signed onto the letter include the AFL-CIO, AFSCME, Families USA, Children’s Defense Fund, National Immigration Law Center, and SEIU, among dozens of others.
– John Bresnahan, Jake Sherman, Heather Caygle and Christian Hall
Punchbowl News is growing! Punchbowl News is hiring an editorial web producer. Interested? Think you’re a good fit? Know someone who is a good fit? Apply! Questions? Email Jake or Heather at firstname [at] punchbowl [dot] news.
WASHINGTON AND THE WORLD
The world braces for possible Pelosi trip to Taiwan
Speaker Nancy Pelosi has traveled abroad quite frequently this year. She’s been to Europe several times – Italy, England, and Ukraine – plus Israel too.
But nothing has been as closely watched as this trip, which is taking Pelosi and a small congressional delegation to the Indo-Pacific. Pelosi announced several stops on her journey, including Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan.
The world is bracing, though, for Pelosi to bring the delegation to Taiwan. A visit of this nature would irk the Chinese, who see a trip there by the third-highest ranking U.S. official as a thumb in the eye.
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) traveled to Taiwan in 1997. Pelosi, though, is a very outspoken critic of the Chinese government, and this trip has taken on much bigger significance because of that.
Pelosi hasn’t confirmed that she will go to Taiwan, but most major news outlets have published stories indicating that the trip is a certainty. Pelosi landed in Malaysia today.
Speakers of the House have a long history of conducting their own foreign policy parallel to the White House. Pelosi views congressional power expansively and sees the Congress as an equal to the executive branch, which, in this context, is important. Should she land in Taiwan as expected, Pelosi will be bucking the somewhat public pleas of the Biden administration, which also sees the trip as a risk.
The Coverage
NYT
| → | “U.S. Warns China Not to Turn Pelosi’s Expected Trip to Taiwan Into a ‘Crisis,’” by Peter Baker |
| → | Tom Friedman: “Why Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan Is Utterly Reckless” |
WaPo
| → | “Taiwan braces for Chinese show of force, with Pelosi set to visit,” by Lily Kuo in Taipei |
WSJ
| → | “Global Markets Fall Ahead of Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit,” by Rebecca Feng |
Politico
| → | “Pelosi Taiwan trip overrides Chinese military threats,” by Phelim Kine |
– Jake Sherman
PRESENTED BY HEALTHCARE LEADERSHIP COUNCIL
Two-in-three seniors with Medicare prefer drug plans negotiate with the biopharmaceutical manufacturers INSTEAD of government price setting.
FRONTS
Crucial Capitol Hill news AM, Midday, and PM—5 times a week
Join a community of some of the most powerful people in Washington and beyond. Exclusive newsmaker events, parties, in-person and virtual briefings and more.
Subscribe to Premium
The Canvass Year-End Report
And what senior aides and downtown figures believe will happen in 2023.
Check it outEvery single issue of Punchbowl News published, all in one place
Visit the archive
Presented by Wells Fargo
At Wells Fargo, we cover more rural markets than many large banks, and nearly 30% of our branches are in low- or moderate-income census tracts. What we say, we do. See how.