8/23/22 ☀️ Punchbowl News AM

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THE TOP

Happy Tuesday morning.

There are 11 weeks until the midterm elections. Voters head to the polls in New York, Florida and Oklahoma today. And we’re going to dive into a special edition of the Tally, our home for election coverage. Max Cohen is taking the lead on today’s issue.

Congress is in the midst of the annual August recess. Members and senators are back home campaigning, with control of both chambers up for grabs. And there’s one big question on the minds of pols nationwide – are things starting to turn around for Democrats?

All spring and into the early summer, Democrats looked like they were headed toward a resounding midterm defeat. Battered by President Joe Biden’s sagging approval ratings, high gas prices, record dissatisfaction with the economy and their failure to pass major legislation, the conventional wisdom seemed to be that Republicans were poised to take over both the House and Senate.

But now the mood has changed, buoyed by a number of key momentum-shifting events:

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The Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. The Dobbs decision upended a half-century of precedent and put the abortion rights of tens of millions of women at risk. This enraged Democratic base voters and independents alike. The Supreme Court’s ruling energized the party faithful during an election where some feared Democrats would face a serious enthusiasm gap. You can see that’s disappeared here, here, and here.

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Congress started getting stuff done. Primarily, the House and Senate passed the sprawling Inflation Reduction Act, a $740 billion reconciliation package that fights climate change, extends Obamacare subsidies and allows Medicare to negotiate lower prescription drug prices. That last point will be hammered home again and again by Democrats in swing seats as they seek support from seniors, a key voting group.

Congress also enacted the CHIPS and Science Act, a bipartisan compromise that will boost the U.S. semiconductor industry. This is huge for Democrats (and Republicans alike) who want to show their support for domestic manufacturing. Other major pieces of legislation include the PACT Act and the first gun control bill in three decades. The political upshot: Gone is the perception of a “do-nothing” Democratic Congress.

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Senate GOP candidates have underperformed badly. Republican Senate candidates in key races, including Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania, are trailing their Democratic opponents, in some cases pretty substantially. After spending heavily on TV ads earlier in the year, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has been forced to pull back, while the GOP candidates haven’t been able to match Democrats in fundraising. The Senate Leadership Fund, a Mitch McConnell-affiliated super PAC, is dumping tens of millions of dollars into key races down the stretch, but will it be enough?

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Trump, Trump and more Trump. Former President Donald Trump has dominated the news over the last several weeks, especially since the FBI raided Mar-a-Lago in a bid to recover classified documents. Just last night, the New York Times reported that Trump had more than 300 classified documents at Mar-a-Lago. The more Trump’s legal problems are leading the news, the better it is for Democrats.

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Gas prices are down. After hitting $5 per gallon, gas prices are now roughly $3.90 nationally. In some states – see Georgia, which has a key Senate race – it’s in the $3.40 to $3.50 range, according to AAA. We’re talking about a 50-cent-per-gallon decrease in just a month. Overall, gas prices are still a lot higher than when Biden took office, but the situation is dramatically better than at the start of the summer. Food and housing prices are the big concerns now, and Americans still fear the worst is yet to come economically.

With only a five-seat majority this morning – it could be four by the end of the day – Democrats face an uphill battle keeping the House, despite the improving political environment. Top Senate Democrats, on the other hand, believe they may even pick up a seat or two.

DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), who is in charge of averting a midterm defeat for House Democrats, told us on the day of the Inflation Reduction Act’s passage that Democratic candidates were “absolutely seeing an improvement across the board. And today is part of it.”

One of Maloney’s Frontline members, Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.), hailed the CHIPS Act and insulin pricing reform as two issues that will resonate in his Michigan toss-up district.

Kildee added that the recent flurry of new laws being enacted will have an effect on Democratic chances in November.

Frontline Rep. Matt Cartwright (Pa.), the Democrat who overperformed Biden the most in 2020, called the reconciliation package “a huge win for seniors.”

“This bill today, the Inflation Reduction Act, it’s about reducing costs,” Cartwright said. “And one of the biggest things I like about it is that it will reduce drug costs for seniors. It’s a giant leap in that direction.”

“I think the political fortunes for Democrats were already moving in the right direction in terms of all that we’ve accomplished for everyday Americans over the 117th Congress,” House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries told us.

While some Democrats are feeling giddier about the political vibes, Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) — who won’t be up for reelection after losing a primary — is far less optimistic.

“You still have got three months to go. Brand’s not good. Socialism doesn’t sell,” Schrader said. He called on Democrats to focus on infrastructure and the prescription drug and climate provisions of the reconciliation bill.

“I think people will like those and we’ll see if that resonates — or is it all going to be about Trump and Mar-a-Lago for the next three months?” Schrader said.

Republicans, for their part, contend any notion of a Democratic comeback is nonsense. They argue that inflation is by far the number one issue for voters across the country. And despite the reconciliation package’s branding, the bill won’t do anything to reduce inflation between now and Election Day.

History is also against the Democrats, especially in the House. The president’s party almost always loses seats in the president’s first midterm election, sometimes heavily. Republicans remain favored to win the House.

And as we flagged Monday, a recent NBC News poll found that 68% of Americans say the country is in a recession right now. This is bad news for the party that controls the White House, House and Senate.

Despite his optimism about the Inflation Reduction Act’s impact, Cartwright said there was another factor that could blunt the Democratic feel-good factor: time.

“People tend to have a fairly short memory,” Cartwright told us before Congress left for August recess. In the days leading up to the election, Cartwright said, “people will find something else to have strong feelings about. That could either help me or hurt me.”

— Max Cohen and John Bresnahan

PRESENTED BY PARTNERSHIP TO FIGHT INFECTIOUS DISEASE

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a threat to everyone. Superbugs that cause drug-resistant infections are on the rise, and we must act now to prevent the next pandemic. The Partnership to Fight Infectious Disease’s #FacesofAMR series features real people behind the stories of superbugs – children, chronically ill patients, athletes, and more. Congress must pass the PASTEUR Act to remedy the broken antimicrobial drugs pipeline so patients don’t run out of options when fighting a life-threatening superbug.

PRIMARY DAY IN AMERICA

What we’re watching in today’s primaries

→	Who will win the battle for Manhattan?

New York’s 12th District primary pits House Judiciary Committee Chair Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) against House Oversight Committee Chair Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) thanks to a brutal redistricting map for the two longtime incumbents. Plus, attorney Suraj Patel — who nearly defeated Maloney in the 2020 primary — is also running.

Nadler is considered the favorite, thanks to his major endorsements from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and the progressive Working Families Party. Nadler’s campaign has focused on turning out his base voters on the Upper West Side in the race’s final days.

Maloney – who has support from women and abortion rights groups – spent her final day on the trail attacking Schumer, calling on the majority leader to be a “leader for women” and to bring the Equal Rights Amendment up for a Senate vote.

Maloney’s campaign has been dogged by her refusal to give up on her belief that President Joe Biden won’t run again in 2024. A recent eye-catching Emerson poll found Nadler running 19 points ahead of Maloney, with Patel in a distant third.

→	Can Dan Goldman beat back progressive angst in NY-10?

Candidates in this lower Manhattan district that covers parts of Brooklyn are teaming up against Goldman in the race’s closing stages. The former Trump impeachment lawyer appears to have pulled ahead slightly in a crowded field that features New York City Council Member Carlina Rivera, Westchester-area Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.), State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou and former Rep. Elizabeth Holtzman (D-N.Y.).

Progressives in the race are accusing Goldman of trying to buy the race (Goldman is the scion of the wealthy family that founded Levi Strauss & Co.) and labeling him a conservative Democrat. Jones, who currently represents much of Westchester and Rockland County in the House, has consistently trailed in polls of the unfamiliar district.

→	Will DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) survive a primary challenge?

Maloney was at the heart of one of the most controversial episodes of the New York redistricting fiasco when he decided to run in the 17th District and forced Jones to run in the 10th District. Progressives raged at the reshuffle, which could likely cost Jones his seat in Congress. Plus, Frontliners were annoyed that Maloney — whose job it is to protect them — was stealing headlines for the wrong reasons.

State Sen. Alessandra Biaggi, a rising star in New York politics, is running against Maloney with the backing of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).

Maloney, however, is still considered the strong favorite and has locked up substantial support from local progressives.

→	Will Republicans gain a seat in a competitive New York special election?

Two prominent local politicians are vying to fill former Rep. Antonio Delgado’s (D-N.Y.) seat in a special election today. The slight favorite is Republican Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, who’s running against Democratic Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan. Molinaro has focused on inflation while Ryan’s messaging has assailed Republicans for curtailing abortion rights.

→	Can Gen Z activist Maxwell Alejandro Frost triumph over former Rep. Alan Grayson in a key Florida Democratic primary?

We detailed last week how 25-year-old party favorite Maxwell Alejandro Frost was in danger of losing a fractured primary to controversial former Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.). Grayson, if you recall, was accused by his ex-wife of domestic abuse (a claim he denies). Grayson also infamously accused then-Politico reporter Edward-Isaac Dovere of assault when he tried to ask Grayson about the allegations. Grayson developed a reputation for using coarse language against Democrats, Republicans and journalists during three nonconsecutive terms in the House.

Frost — a gun control advocate and first-time office seeker — is endorsed by the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and many more.

Also in the crowded 10-candidate race: convicted felon and former Rep. Corrine Brown (D-Fla.), state Sen. Randolph Bracy and Terence Gray (who is Demings’ pastor).

— Max Cohen

ABORTION

Democratic Frontline women turn to abortion messaging on the airwaves

Two months after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Democratic Frontline women are increasingly attacking their GOP opponents on abortion rights. It’s part of a larger strategy that top party leaders say is the right way to paint Republicans as extreme.

A group of four Democratic women in competitive races are on the airwaves slamming Republicans for seeking to restrict access to abortion. But ads touching on abortion are far from the main topic motivating Frontliner messaging.

“We believe it’s highly effective to educate voters on Republicans’ desire to ban abortion nationwide,” DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) said. “We’re going to tell people if they put Republicans in control, they will ban abortion in every state in the country. Democrats are going to protect Roe. It’s a simple choice.”

Since the start of July, a total of $2 million has been spent on House and Senate ads mentioning abortion, according to AdImpact — a total of 5,000 airings.

But in particular, Frontline Democratic women incumbents have highlighted the issue ever since the Dobbs decision. Reps. Kim Schrier (Wash.), Susie Lee (Nev.), Elaine Luria (Va.) and Cindy Axne (Iowa) have all run television ads attacking the Republicans for threatening abortion rights. The four are the only Frontliners to broach the topic on the airwaves since Roe was overturned.

→	“As a doctor, my oath is to protect patients,” Schrier said in an ad from June. “As your congresswoman, my oath is to protect your rights. … I’m the only candidate in this race who will protect a woman’s right to choose.”

→	Lee, a Democrat from Nevada, blasts her Republican opponent April Becker as “pro-life” in an ad on abortion rights. The ad paints the election as a “stark choice” between Lee and Becker.

“Becker: Threatening every woman’s right to choose,” the ad’s narrator says. “Exactly why we need Susie Lee… Lee will protect our right to choose, always.”

→	“Who will take away a woman’s right to make her own decisions, regardless of the circumstance?” a voiceover in a recent Axne ad asks. “Zach Nunn” — the GOP state senator challenging Axne — is the ad’s answer.

→	A recent spot from Luria, who represents a Virginia Beach-area seat, assails her Republican challenger state Sen. Jen Kiggans for “applauding” the court’s decision in the Dobbs case.

“When Virginians wanted their values represented, Jen Kiggans showed us she was too extreme,” the ad concludes.

→	Democrat Pat Ryan has also tried to turn today’s special election in New York’s 19th District into a referendum on abortion rights. An ad from Ryan argues his opponent — Marc Molinaro — and the GOP “are too extreme on women’s rights.”

→	And although Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) hasn’t run a television ad on abortion, the Virginia Democratic Party is seizing on her opponent Yesli Vega’s history of controversial comments on abortion rights.

Another dynamic at play is whether far-right gubernatorial nominees in swing states will motivate Democratic voters to turn out. Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.) told us this will be a major factor in Pennsylvania this November.

While the small group of Frontline women are hammering their opponents on abortion, it’s notable that other vulnerable House Democrats are straying away from abortion messaging.

Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) has run numerous ads so far this cycle. But none have centered on abortion rights. Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) focused on how he bucked his party on inflation, but omitted abortion-related messaging. Rep. Chris Pappas’ (D-N.H.) first ad of the cycle discussed banning members from trading stocks, with no mention of abortion. And Rep. Josh Harder (D-Calif.) had time to criticize “Sacramento politicians” in his first ad buy but made no mention of Roe v. Wade.

– Max Cohen

PRESENTED BY PARTNERSHIP TO FIGHT INFECTIOUS DISEASE

Around the world, antimicrobial-resistant infections now claim more lives than HIV/AIDS and malaria combined. Novel drugs are needed now to address the growing threat.

THE CAMPAIGN

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Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s (D-Nev.) campaign attracted headlines last week when it released a “Succession”-style attack ad that depicted Republican Adam Laxalt as a failure despite his elite background. Laxalt’s campaign is responding with a new ad that paints a very different picture of the Republican’s upbringing.

“Adam’s early life wasn’t easy,” Laxalt’s wife Jaime says in the ad.

“I was raised by a single mom with no college education and as a kid, I didn’t know who my father was,” Laxalt adds. Laxalt’s father was longtime Sen. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.).

→	Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis is airing a new “Top Gun”-themed ad where he describes how he fights back against the “corporate media.”

One rule DeSantis lays out: “Don’t fire unless fired upon. But when they fire, you fire back with overwhelming force.” Got it.

— Max Cohen

FRONTS

PRESENTED BY PARTNERSHIP TO FIGHT INFECTIOUS DISEASE

The availability of effective antimicrobial drugs impacts us all.

MOMENTS

President Joe Biden is in Rehoboth Beach, Del., and has no public events scheduled. The House and Senate are out.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→	“Trump Had More Than 300 Classified Documents at Mar-a-Lago,” by Maggie Haberman, Jodi Kantor, Adam Goldman and Ben Protess

→	“Fauci Says He Will Step Down in December to Pursue His ‘Next Chapter,’” by Sheryl Gay Stolberg

WaPo

→	“Files copied from voting systems were shared with Trump supporters, election deniers,” by Jon Swaine, Aaron Davis, Amy Gardner and Emma Brown

→	“Walker, criticizing climate law, asks: ‘Don’t we have enough trees around here?’” by John Wagner

→	“Former security chief claims Twitter buried ‘egregious deficiencies,’” by Joseph Menn, Elizabeth Dwoskin and Cat Zakrzewski

WSJ

→	“Trump Files Lawsuit Challenging Mar-a-Lago Search by FBI,” by Jan Wolfe and Sadie Gurman

City and State

→	“Hakeem Jeffries again challenges the left, on the eve of the primary,” by Jeff Coltin

Politico

→	“Youngkin plans midterm campaign stops — including a 2024 early state,” by Alex Isenstadt

→	“Archives warned of national security damage from Trump’s classified Mar-a-Lago docs, letter shows,” by Kyle Cheney

LA Times

→	“California congressman becomes latest Republican to invoke Nazis to defend Trump, bash Biden,” by Melanie Mason

PRESENTED BY PARTNERSHIP TO FIGHT INFECTIOUS DISEASE

Antimicrobial resistance does not discriminate. Take Mallory Smith, a cystic fibrosis patient who lost her 25-year battle in 2017 due to an antibiotic-resistant infection. She survived a double lung transplant only to be re-infected by the superbug that ultimately claimed her life. Mallory left behind a collection of writings, video and audio recordings that later became a book and then a film titled Salt in My Soul. To address the growing threat of superbugs, Congress can resolve to pass the PASTEUR Act, creating a new pipeline for novel antibiotic and antifungal medications. Without new and innovative drugs, patients like Mallory and millions more worldwide quickly run out options in their fight against AMR. Read more stories from real people in the Partnership to Fight Infectious Disease’s #FacesofAMR series.

Editorial photos provided by Getty Images

The Archive

Crucial Capitol Hill news AM, Midday, and PM—5 times a week

The Tally: A big primary day

THE TOP

PRESENTED BY PARTNERSHIP TO FIGHT INFECTIOUS DISEASE

PRIMARY DAY IN AMERICA

What we’re watching in today’s primaries

ABORTION

Democratic Frontline women turn to abortion messaging on the airwaves

PRESENTED BY PARTNERSHIP TO FIGHT INFECTIOUS DISEASE

THE CAMPAIGN

FRONTS

PRESENTED BY PARTNERSHIP TO FIGHT INFECTIOUS DISEASE

MOMENTS

CLIP FILE

PRESENTED BY PARTNERSHIP TO FIGHT INFECTIOUS DISEASE

Crucial Capitol Hill news AM, Midday, and PM—5 times a week

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