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IN THIS EDITION

Abortion key in Nevada and other Senate races

Hogan keeps his distance from Trump in deep-blue Maryland

Pro-Israel groups make their mark in Dem primaries

New Dems make the moderate case for Harris

THE TOP

Abortion key in Nevada and other Senate races

Happy Friday morning.

New: President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will make a joint campaign appearance next week. They’ll do a Thursday event in Maryland together, the White House announced this morning.

LAS VEGAS — Ever since the Supreme Court’s stunning reversal of Roe v. Wade in 2022, Democrats have told voters that “reproductive rights are on the ballot” and that they should choose accordingly for every single race. It’s a strategy that has yielded success for the party.

But this November, abortion is quite literally on the ballot in some states where vulnerable Senate Democratic incumbents are fighting for their political survival. And Democrats want to use these ballot initiatives to their advantage, to counteract what is a flat-out terrible Senate map for them this year.

“Regardless of whether you’re talking about a ballot initiative or you’re talking about a candidate, when you frame an election around the stakes for reproductive freedom, [voters] turn out — and they vote with us on this issue,” Jessica Mackler, the president of EMILYs List, told us before campaigning here with Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.).

It hasn’t always been easy for either party to rely on a ballot initiative — regardless of the topic — to be a difference-maker in federal elections. But Democrats believe that having an issue like abortion on the ballot will drive up turnout among those inclined to vote for Democrats yet may otherwise feel unmotivated to cast a ballot. It’s far from a sure bet, though, because while abortion rights are popular, that alone doesn’t guarantee a trickle-down effect for Democrats.

The ballot initiative and the Senate race need to “go hand-in-hand” in Nevada, Mackler added.

“If you’re motivated to vote on this issue and you believe that these rights need to be restored at a federal level, then you know that [if] you hand control [of the Senate] to Republicans, they are going to pursue restrictions,” Mackler said.

The goal is to translate the popularity of abortion rights into Democratic wins across the board. This could help determine the outcome in Nevada and other states where the Senate and presidential races will be close.

With Republicans favored to win back the Senate, Democrats’ focus on abortion rights and leveraging the ballot initiatives to juice turnout could ultimately be the difference between a one-seat GOP majority or a three- to four-seat majority. Abortion is also on the ballot in Florida, although that’s a long-shot Senate pickup opportunity for Democrats. Arizona is another battleground that’s likely to have an abortion ballot measure in November.

Rosen vs. Brown: As we wrote earlier this week, Rosen is emphasizing local issues and an affinity for bipartisanship, while at the same time framing abortion rights in the context of which party controls the Senate. The latter could play well in Nevada when grouped in with the abortion ballot measure, but that’s not necessarily the case elsewhere.

The Nevada ballot initiative would enshrine abortion rights in the state’s constitution. While Rosen’s GOP opponent Sam Brown told us he’d break with his party and oppose a national abortion ban, Brown won’t say which way he’ll vote on the ballot initiative. Brown does support the state’s existing 24-week law.

Brown told us this week that Rosen is trying to “scare up votes” through a “dishonest fear campaign.”

“Sen. Rosen is the one who is out of touch with Nevada voters,” Brown added. “She supports federal laws that would supersede Nevada law.”

Rosen and Brown haven’t clashed on any issue more intensely than abortion. Rosen accuses Brown of covering up his past record on abortion from his time living in Texas, where he once ran for office.

“No matter how hard he tries to cover up what he did, he did it, he said it, and he’s only changed since he moved to Nevada,” Rosen told us. “Because these are Texas views. He can go back to Texas. This is not Nevada.”

More from Rosen:

GOP messaging: There’s no doubt that the overturning of Roe has put GOP candidates and incumbents in an uncomfortable spot. Many of them have admitted as much. Top Republicans have sparred internally over how to message the issue, including when Schumer held a number of “show” votes related to abortion rights earlier this summer.

Former President Donald Trump and his allies orchestrated a successful push to prevent the GOP platform from endorsing its stance on abortion — a federal ban — to the chagrin of anti-abortion activists.

Trump has complained about how the Dobbs decision has altered the political landscape for Republicans, even though he paved the way for it with his Supreme Court picks.

On Thursday, Trump refused to say how he’ll vote on a ballot initiative in Florida that would block the state’s six-week abortion ban and allow the procedure for the first 24 weeks of pregnancy. Trump added that abortion has “become much less of an issue.” Obviously, that’s just wishful thinking.

— Andrew Desiderio

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THE SENATE MAP

Hogan keeps his distance from Trump in deep-blue Maryland

UPPER MARLBORO, Md. — Maryland Senate GOP candidate Larry Hogan is putting some serious distance between himself and former President Donald Trump. Like a 10-foot pole type of distance.

Of course, Hogan has to do that in order to win in a deep blue state like Maryland. But even this tactic might not be enough to push the popular former governor to victory in November.

While the race has become more competitive than usual, Hogan is still battling major headwinds from the top of the ticket. Trump lost the state by more than 30 points in 2020, while Vice President Kamala Harris has no doubt reenergized the Democratic Party since becoming the presumptive nominee.

Asked how the Democratic shakeup changes the contours of his own race, Hogan said it was still too early to know. “I’m sure it’s going to make a difference in some way, but we’re not focused on what’s going to happen,” Hogan told us after a meeting with a local ironworkers union Thursday.

But Hogan acknowledged that he’s still the underdog — especially as Democrats try to nationalize the race. Here’s more:

Hogan is facing off against Prince George County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, one of two Black women running for the Senate this cycle. To prevail in November, Hogan will need to capture most Republicans and independents, plus a good chunk of Democrats willing to split the ticket.

With that in mind, it’s no surprise Hogan has presented himself as an independent-minded candidate who won’t be a rubber stamp for his party. Just consider this:

— Hogan condemned Trump’s racial and sexist attacks on Harris, as well as vice presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance’s (R-Ohio) dig at “childless cat ladies.”

“I’m very disappointed by it. What we really need to do is focus on the issues,” Hogan told us. “I have biracial grandkids, and we should never be focusing on race or gender or making fun of people or calling them names.”

— The former governor congratulated Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on being selected as Harris’ running mate. The pair worked together when Hogan was in the governor’s mansion.

— Hogan, who now calls himself “pro-choice,” has promised to support legislation to codify Roe v. Wade.

— Hogan has vowed not to vote for Trump or Harris in November, saying he’ll likely write in a symbolic candidate instead.

— After Trump appeared to endorse him, Hogan quickly rejected the offer of support. “We didn’t ask for the endorsement, we didn’t want the endorsement,” he told us.

— Following Trump’s Thursday press conference, where the former president whitewashed the events of Jan. 6, Hogan posted on X that it “was not peaceful” and “must never happen again.”

Interestingly, Hogan recently cut an ad spotlighting the late former Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who infamously drew Trump’s ire for sinking legislation to repeal Obamacare.

In our interview, Hogan said he views himself in the mold of McCain or the now-Independent Sen. Joe Machin (W.Va.), who had massive sway over the Democratic agenda. “I really do see that kind of a role,” Hogan told us. “I can be a key vote and a key voice for trying to actually put things together and get things done.”

If Hogan does land in the Senate, it would be a major coup for Republicans that could determine the balance of power. But it’s also clear GOP leaders aren’t always going to be able to count on his vote.

— Melanie Zanona

Pro-Israel groups make their mark in Dem primaries

At the start of 2024, pro-Israel groups armed with significant war chests identified Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) and Cori Bush (D-Mo.) as particularly vulnerable incumbents.

And after the two most expensive House primaries in history, Bowman and Bush have both fallen to more mainstream Democratic primary challengers — the first two Squad members to ever lose reelection.

But that’s likely to be the end of this cycle’s anti-Squad primary funding wars. And left-wing groups are relieved that stiff challenges to other progressive, pro-Palestinian members haven’t materialized.

Bowman and Bush presented uniquely promising territory for anti-Squad forces in ways that other vehemently anti-Israel politicians didn’t. The individual scandals that hampered the two incumbents, combined with strong challengers who have local ties caught the attention of outside groups.

For instance, although Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) has a primary next Tuesday, there’s been no similar groundswell of outside spending to boost her Democratic opponent, Don Samuels.

On television ad spending, AIPAC’s super PAC — United Democracy Project — spent a total of $18.3 million in Bowman’s and Bush’s races. A total of $12.3 million came to boost George Latimer over Bowman, while $6 million was allocated to help Wesley Bell take down Bush.

But according to AdImpact, UDP has reserved no money for TV ads in Omar’s primary. And fellow Squad member Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) won her primary without even attracting a primary opponent on the same day Bush lost.

The story here? Pro-Israel forces looking to shape the Democratic Party in their image are picking their fights carefully. The massive outlays in Bowman’s and Bush’s primaries show that once they identify which member or candidate to go after, these interest groups are ready to go all in. There’s not a similar appetite to spend in longshot fights. A lot of money in just a few races, versus a lot of money in a lot of races.

“Defeating an incumbent member of Congress is statistically the hardest thing to do in politics,” Mark Mellman, the head of Democratic Majority for Israel, told us. “This doesn’t happen very often, and so we’re not going to waste the donors’ money on races that we can’t win.”

DMFI PAC dedicated significant resources to knocking off Bush, who Mellman called “one of the most bellicose, vituperative anti-Israel figures in Congress.”

View from the left: Justice Democrats, the left-wing group closely associated with the Squad, believes that AIPAC hasn’t succeeded this cycle despite Bowman’s and Bush’s defeat.

Communications Director Usamah Andrabi identified Rep. Summer Lee’s (D-Pa.) primary victory as a setback for the pro-Israel group.

“The day Summer Lee won her primary was the day they failed at their cycle goal,” Andrabi asserted.

Andrabi noted that not one of the ads that UDP ran mentioned Israel. It’s a sign, in his eyes, that pro-Israel groups know their agenda isn’t popular with Democrats.

Looking forward, Andrabi didn’t rule out Justice Dems-backed challengers next cycle to Latimer and Bell.

“I don’t think anything’s off the table,” Andrabi said. “Next cycle, there’s a lot of incumbents who have been betraying the interests and needs of their community that should be put on watch.”

— Max Cohen

KAMALA COALITIONS

New Dems make the moderate case for Harris

The New Democrat Coalition is trying to make the center-left case for voters to support Vice President Kamala Harris’ bid for the White House, calling her a pragmatist who can win over swing states.

Dozens of New Dem members are preparing to act as surrogates for Harris, especially in purple districts and battleground states in the coming months. New Dem Chair Annie Kuster (D-N.H.), who is not seeking reelection, said the group’s strength lies in its numbers and battle-tested members who have experience flipping red districts to blue.

“New Dems are in the swingiest of swing districts, in the swingiest of swing states,” Kuster told us. “That’s why the path to the majority in the House and the path to the White House run through the New Dems.”

Dozens of New Dems also helped spearhead the effort calling on President Joe Biden to withdraw from the race over concerns that he would drag down vulnerable members. New Dems’ support for Harris comes alongside progressives’ efforts to push the vice president’s campaign agenda to the left.

Kuster describes the pitch to moderate voters as focusing on kitchen sink issues like the economy and health care as well as working across the aisle.

Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) said Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz being Harris’ running mate will also help boost her campaign.

“He’s a person that I think we often relate to, that we all feel is someone who we’ve known, who we could trust,” Sherrill told us.

“She’s already been to Michigan five times,” Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.) said of Harris. “[Hillary] Clinton never came to Michigan and it was a big problem. A lot of people raised it as an issue. [The Harris campaign] is not taking Michigan for granted. She’s clearly not taking the Midwest for granted.”

Of course, not all New Dems — which includes a large swath of the House’s most vulnerable members — are jumping at the chance to attach themselves to the top of the ticket. We reported Thursday that there are at least a dozen vulnerable Democrats considering skipping the DNC to focus on their own races.

The House GOP campaign arm is also trying to tie at-risk Democrats to Harris, painting her as a “San Francisco liberal.” The NRCC has already put out numerous attacks against Frontline Democrats and released a new ad Thursday calling Harris and Walz the “most left-leaning ticket” in history.

— Mica Soellner

THE CAMPAIGN

Vice President Kamala Harris has a new ad touting her record as a prosecutor and noting her experience dealing with crime at the border. This is an interesting ad given that Republicans frequently hit her on being soft on crime and bad on the border. The spot says as president, Harris will hire “thousands more border agents” and crack down on fentanyl.

“Fixing the border is tough. So is Kamala Harris,” the ad says in closing. The spot is running in Philadelphia.

— Jake Sherman

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