THE TOP
Happy Monday morning, and happy Labor Day!
We missed you too. Congress is back. The Senate is in session starting tomorrow, the House won’t be back until Sept. 13. President Joe Biden is traveling to Milwaukee and Pittsburgh today for Labor Day events.
There was some big news while we were gone. The Justice Department revealed that former President Donald Trump and his lawyers may have obstructed the inquiry into what classified documents were kept at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence. Biden launched a blistering verbal attack on Trump and MAGA Republicans in prime time as part of the “Continued Battle for the Soul of the Nation.” The crisis at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in southeastern Ukraine has rattled Europe. No one knows when the 150,000 people in Jackson, Miss., will have clean water. A Democrat – and the first Alaska Native – is going to represent The Last Frontier in the House for the first time in 50 years. Florida GOP Sen. Rick Scott and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell are having a moment. And singer The Weeknd abruptly ended his concert on Saturday night in the middle of his song “Can’t Feel My Face” due to vocal problems (this is 100% true). So lots of stuff.
We’re also about to begin an intense two-month sprint – 64 days to be exact – to the midterm elections, followed by what’s likely to be a frantic lame-duck session, especially if Republicans capture either or both chambers.
With that, here’s five things to watch out for in September.
1) The only “must pass” bill that lawmakers have to deal with this month is a continuing resolution to keep federal agencies funded beyond Sept. 30, the end of the fiscal year. Democratic leaders are currently considering a CR that will extend to Dec. 9 or Dec. 16, although they not have made any decision yet on the deadline, aides said.
Remember – there’s going to be a strong push to get an omnibus spending package done during the lame-duck session. Having the CR extend until mid-December gives appropriators time to reach a deal and then draft the package. So maybe Christmas in the Capitol!
The White House is seeking more than $47 billion in emergency funding for Ukraine, Covid-19 preparedness, monkeypox and natural disasters, including deadly flooding in Kentucky.
The Biden administration says it has already “disbursed or committed” three-quarters of the $40 billion in military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine approved by Congress back in May. The White House is seeking another $13.7 billion now. If it’s approved, this latest request would bring total U.S. spending on the Ukraine conflict to well over $60 billion. There’s no end to the war in sight, meaning that Ukraine will need a lot more money before this is over.
We’ll note that the White House is again pushing for more than $22 billion in Covid prep funding for tests, therapeutics and developing “next generation” vaccines. This is a request dating back to the spring. Republicans have repeatedly balked at this demand, saying the administration should repurpose American Rescue Plan funding. Again.
2) Joe Manchin and permitting reform. As part of the agreement between Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on the Inflation Reduction Act, there’ll be a vote on a bill reforming the federal permitting process before Sept. 30. Actual legislative text hasn’t been introduced yet, although Manchin has released an outline of provisions he’d like to see addressed in the legislation.
There’s talk of attaching the Manchin proposal to the CR, but there will be opposition to such a move from environmental groups and progressives. So we’ll have to see how Schumer and Speaker Nancy Pelosi work this out – if they can.
3) McConnell vs. Scott. The feud between McConnell and Scott is already epic. We can’t ever remember a party leader openly clashing with the chair of a party committee – a person that they tapped for this specific post – in any way like this. There have been a lot of questions raised recently about the NRSC’s finances during Scott’s tenure, as you can see in this Shane Goldmacher story in the New York Times. Scott has pushed back, including addressing criticism of the committee’s online fundraising.
Yet the NRSC’s financial woes under Scott’s tenure are only part of the story. Scott has been pushing his own agenda since February, such as potential new taxes on millions of low-income Americans who don’t currently pay taxes. McConnell shot this idea down immediately, although Scott continued to advocate for his broader proposal, much to Democrats’ delight. Scott also ran NRSC ads featuring himself.
When McConnell complained last month that “candidate quality” may prevent Republicans from winning control of the chamber, Scott fired back. Scott pointedly kept the NRSC out of GOP primaries, saying it wasn’t appropriate for the committee to be involved in these contests. Now the GOP finds itself with some Trump-backed candidates who are in danger of losing in November. Scott’s purist position pleased activists at the state level and plays to his own philosophy, but it may backfire in November, which is what McConnell really cares about.
It’s also clear that some of the Trumpian GOP candidates need more money asap, especially Blake Masters in Arizona and J.D. Vance in Ohio. McConnell reportedly unsuccessfully appealed to billionaire Peter Thiel for help bolstering Masters, who is trailing Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly. Thiel gave heavily to a super PAC that backed Masters in the Republican primary.
We’ve talked to some GOP senators and aides who expect there to be an effort to calm the situation, at least publicly. But there’s certain to be bitter recriminations all around if the GOP can’t win the Senate despite what looked like a good opportunity earlier in the year. Or even worse, Republicans lose seats on Nov. 8, which is a distinct possibility right now.
4) Same-sex marriage. Schumer has promised a vote on a same sex marriage bill in September. The question is whether there are 10 Senate Republicans to back the measure and overcome an expected GOP filibuster. We’ve counted seven GOP senators publicly in the “Yes” or “Maybe” column. McConnell hasn’t said how he’ll vote. But after 47 House Republicans backed the measure, getting enough Senate GOP support to pass this measure looks doable. Not a lock, of course. But doable.
5) Big Tech antitrust bill. Schumer promised Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) they’d get a vote on their Big Tech antitrust bill – the American Innovation and Choice Online Act – if they can get 60 votes. That was supposed to happen during the early summer. Then it was post July 4. Then August. Now it may be in “the fall.” With Apple facing a possible Justice Department antitrust lawsuit, and questions over how this bill would impact “content moderation,” we’re not sure there will ever be a floor vote.
Programming note: We will be back to our normal three-issues-per-day publishing schedule tomorrow.
– John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman
