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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN

THE TOP

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Welcome to Day Two of the second impeachment trial of Donald Trump. At noon today, the House impeachment managers will begin laying out their case to convict the 45th president for inciting the deadly Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

We’re a startup, so we find ourselves perusing business literature once in a while these days. One concept stuck out to us as particularly instructive in thinking about Punchbowl News, but also about power in Washington.

It’s called SWOT: Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Typically it’s used to evaluate companies and their position in the market. But let’s use it to think about the House Democrats impeachment team and their position in this impeachment trial.

Strengths: House Democrats clearly have the better arguments. All the jurors lived through the Jan. 6 attack. The American public saw it, the whole world saw it. They saw Trump claiming for months that the election was stolen from him and his supporters. They saw the president of the United States suggest that his supporters should go to the Capitol. Then they saw those protestors smash their way into the Capitol. The Democrats’ claim is all pretty clear cut. We also saw on Tuesday that the former president’s defense team is … lackluster to say the least. So Rep. Jamie Raskin’s (D-Md.) squad has the advantage here.

Weaknesses: Well this is obvious too. The impeachment managers’ primary weakness is that they’re trying to convince a Senate Republican Conference that is largely unwilling to be convinced that Trump is guilty. They can lay out the case in a compelling way, tell the story in the most elegant fashion, show hours of video evidence, and yet there’s virtually zero chance that 17 Senate Republicans vote with them. 

Opportunities: If you’re an optimist and you look closely enough, squinting your eyes while you do, perhaps you can find a speck of hope here for Team Raskin. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) was so moved by the Democrats’ argument Tuesday over the constitutionality of their cause that he switched his vote and backed a motion to proceed with the trial. That’s a big deal in a party where even a vote stating the most obvious is controversial. Is there a scenario in which Democrats flip even more GOP senators to convict Trump? Sure. There’s also a scenario that this email will change your life. But neither of those things seem hopeful or likely. At least not the ‘GOP senators vote to convict Trump’ part.

Threats: When you can’t win, in a sense, you really can’t lose either. And that’s the dynamic for the House Democratic impeachment managers. There’s no real downside here; no one expects them to win anyway. So their mission is to do their best, make sure the American public and fellow Democrats witness it, and then pray for a good outcome.

What to expect today: House Democrats will focus on laying out their case. They expect to touch on whether Trump was exercising his First Amendment rights when speaking at the Jan. 6 rally in front of the White House, whether the House violated his due process rights when — and how — it impeached him, and whether this is a bill of attainder, legislation singling out a certain individual or group of people for punishment without trial.

The politics for Raskin: Democratic insiders know that Raskin seemed a bit perturbed when he wasn’t selected as a manager for the last impeachment trial. Man, has he certainly acquitted himself this time around. Raskin represents the heavily Democratic Washington suburbs — including the People’s Republic of Takoma Park — so much of his district is probably cheering him on here. Raskin took the seat when Chris Van Hollen won a Senate seat in 2016.

HOW HISTORY WILL SEE IT

TRUMP IS ANGRY

Rage against lawyers at Mar-a-Lago

WaPo: “In self-imposed exile, Trump watches with unhappiness as second impeachment trial unfolds,” by Ashley Parker and Josh Dawsey

NYT: “Meandering Performance by Defense Lawyers Enrages Trump,” by Maggie Haberman: “Mr. Trump was said to have meetings that were put on his calendar to coincide with his defense team’s presentation and keep him occupied. But he still managed to catch his two lawyers, Bruce L. Castor Jr. and David I. Schoen, on television — and he did not like what he saw, according to two people briefed on his reaction.

“Mr. Castor, the first to speak, delivered a rambling, almost somnambulant defense of the former president for nearly an hour. Mr. Trump, who often leaves the television on in the background even when he is holding meetings, was furious, people familiar with his reaction said.

“On a scale of one to 10, with 10 being the angriest, Mr. Trump ‘was an eight,’ one person familiar with his reaction said.”

SNEAK PEEK

Covid relief begins its long path

Even as the Senate’s impeachment drama unfolded, Democratic-run House panels began Tuesday to mark up their portions of the $1.9 trillion “American Rescue Plan” proposed by President Joe Biden. There were long, bitter clashes inside the Education and Labor Committee over Democrats’ efforts to raise the minimum wage to $15 and increase funding to reopen schools. In the end, Democrats got what they wanted.

On Wednesday, more House committees will begin the reconciliation markup process, including Agriculture, Financial Services, Transportation, and — most importantly — Ways and Means.

Ways and Means has the biggest slice of the Covid relief package, worth well over $900 billion. This includes $1,400 direct payment checks that Biden wants to send to individuals. Anyone making up to $75,000 per year would get the full amount, with that payment decreasing up to a $100,000 cap. And the panel’s chair, Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.), has unveiled an expanded child tax credit program that would provide a $3,000 credit for any child under 17 ($3,600 for any child six or younger).

Democrats are going it alone, but that won’t stop Rep. Kevin Brady (Texas), the ranking member, and other Republicans on the panel from slamming the Democratic initiative as far too expensive. They plan to offer a slew of amendments to change it. 

GOP lawmakers are expected to complain loudly that Democrats could have gotten bipartisan support if they’d only asked for it. “Why is it that Democrats don’t want to do that?” a Republican source asked. Of course, you should be skeptical that Democrats and Republicans could’ve found much if any common ground. 

Republicans will push amendments on reopening schools, as well as reducing fraud in unemployment programs, which has been a huge issue in California and other states throughout the pandemic-induced slowdown. And GOP lawmakers will push for new income thresholds on some of the tax-credit programs that Democrats are proposing. That particular issue has already led to ugly intra-party fights among Democrats, and Republicans plan to press on it as well.

Some of the ranking subcommittee members — including Reps. Devin Nunes (Calif.), Jackie Walorksi (Ind.) and Adrian Smith (Neb.) — will offer amendments, according to GOP sources.

Neal has set aside three days for the markup, but neither side expects it to last that long. The leadership is keeping a close eye on the proceedings. The Budget Committee is scheduled to vote on the full reconciliation package next week, with the measure headed to the House floor by the week of Feb. 22, according to the Democrats’ timetable. Biden wants to have his initiative in place before federal unemployment benefits expire in mid-March.

Late on Tuesday night, House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) released his mark for a Thursday markup. The proposal includes tens of billions for new Covid testing efforts, and changes to Medicaid.

CLIP FILE

NYT: “The First Trial Seemed Abstract. This One Is a Visceral Reckoning Over Trump,” by Peter Baker: “Where the case against Mr. Trump a year ago turned on what might have seemed like an abstract or narrow argument about his behind-the-scenes interactions with a far-off country, Ukraine, the case this year turns on an eruption of violence that Americans saw on television with their own eyes — and that the senators serving as jurors experienced personally when they fled for their lives.

“Rather than a judgment of where foreign policy turns into political excess, this sequel trial amounts to a visceral reckoning over Mr. Trump’s very presidency. At issue in the Senate chamber over the coming days will be many of the fundamental aspects that defined Mr. Trump’s four years in power: his relentless assaults on truth, his deliberate efforts to foment divisions in society, his shattering of norms and his undermining of a democratic election.”

WaPo: “On a day of legal wrangling, the trauma of Jan. 6 becomes the centerpiece of Trump impeachment trial,” by Dan Balz: “The record of Trump’s presidency is replete with misconduct — the chaos and volatility of his behavior, the ever-changing cast of advisers who could not restrain his worst impulses, the lies and distortions, the attacks on political adversaries, the efforts to undermine public institutions and democracy itself.

“This trial, however, will highlight Trump’s conduct after he was defeated, and just how dangerous his actions turned out to be. No president ever did what Trump sought to do, and that, ultimately, is what brought about his second impeachment and the demands for accountability, including that he be disqualified from ever holding federal office again.”

“In an avalanche of words, there’s no sign of regret from Trump,” by Robin Givhan

“As CDC weighs coronavirus testing requirement for domestic flights, industry voices fierce opposition,” by By  Lori Aratani, Michael Laris and Ian Duncan

WSJ: “U.S. Stock Futures Point to Rally Extending”

“SEC Expands Enforcement Staff’s Power to Start New Investigations,” by Dave Michaels

AP: “Hack exposes vulnerability of cash-strapped US water plants,” by Frank Bajak, Alan Suderman, Tamara Lush in St. Petersburg, Fla.: “A hacker’s botched attempt to poison the water supply of a small Florida city is raising alarms about just how vulnerable the nation’s water systems may be to attacks by more sophisticated intruders. Treatment plants are typically cash-strapped, and lack the cybersecurity depth of the power grid and nuclear plants.”

Politico: “Liberals fight risk of letdown after early Covid wins,” by Sarah Ferris and Heather Caygle

MOMENTS

9:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden and VP Kamala Harris will receive the daily briefing.

10 a.m.: Neera Tanden will testify at Senate Budget for her confirmation to run the Office of Management and Budget.

11 a.m.: The Covid response team will brief.

Noon: Impeachment begins.

12:30 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief.

2 p.m.: Biden and Harris will meet with the Defense Secretary at the Pentagon.

2:50 p.m.: Biden, Harris and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will speak to employees at the Pentagon. 

3:30 p.m.: Biden, Harris and Austin will tour the African Americans in Service Corridor.

5:30 p.m.: Harris, Jeff Zients and Dr. Marcella Nunez-Smith, chair of the Covid-19 Health Equity Task Force, will host a listening session on the American Rescue Plan.

SUPER INSIDE BASEBALL

Democratic Old Bulls defeated

Senate Democratic chairs lost a bid to try to reconsider a party vote to exert influence over their subcommittee panels, a rare defeat for “Old Bulls” who run the party committees. 

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) proposed a rule change that said junior members could start picking their subcommittee assignments before the full committee chairs did. This meant the chairs couldn’t wield a full committee gavel and then take over a choice subcommittee as well, which would’ve given them even more money and staff. Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), joined by Sens. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) and Tom Carper (D-Del.), tried to force a “revote” on the Murphy Rule, hoping to defeat it.

That didn’t work, however. So Democrats begin their subcommittee selections with the Murphy Rule in effect. Chalk one up for the little guy. 

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