PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN

THE TOP

It is Election Day in Georgia in what might be one of the biggest nights in the state’s political history: two Senate seats, the control of the chamber and the trajectory of Joe Biden’s presidency are all at stake in two hotly contested races. Although, in Georgia, President Donald Trump focused on his loss in the state, and his grievances writ large.

Two of the three scenarios are good for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. If Republican wins both races, he has a 52-48 majority and retains the iron grip he’s had on the Senate for the last six years. McConnell just needs Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) or David Perdue (R-Ga.) to win their race to keep his majority. A clean sweep by Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff gives Chuck Schumer the majority thanks to Vice President-elect Kamala Harris. 

This is a good time to remind you what the majority means. It means controlling the Senate floor and the fate of the Joe Biden’s Cabinet, having a veto on judicial nominees, even whether Biden can get his agenda enacted at all. Like Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) under President Donald Trump, Biden would have to come to McConnell to pass any major legislative initiative, and then be ready to pay the political price.

The Georgia Battleground Fund has been the centerpiece of Republicans’ efforts to keep these two seats red. Karl Rove, who was the group’s finance chairman, held a private conference call for bundlers Monday, where he announced that the group raised $58 million for the party’s efforts to boost Loeffler and Perdue.

Rove also played prognosticator during the call. The one-time political guru for former President George W. Bush said that the campaigns’ models show if 1 million or more Georgians turn out to vote on Election Day, Republicans will win. The GOP expects to get at least 62% of Election Day turnout — which is what Perdue got in November. Right now, Rove said, Republicans expect to win both races.

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THE PUNCH LIST: 2020’ers

How they’ll vote on Wednesday

Republicans up for election in 2022 will be on the hot seat Wednesday, as Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and company begin their magical mystery mission to try to block Joe Biden from becoming president. 

These in-cycle GOP senators will have to cast a vote — or, even worse, a series of votes — that will be branded as a proxy for their loyalty to Trump. The president has already branded Republicans who vote for certification the “Surrender Caucus,” so we know how he feels — his emotions appear to be quite measured. In some states, backing a certification of Biden’s victory could lead to a primary challenger who has Trump’s support.

Another factor: some of these senators are going to have to vote against Trump when a majority of House Republicans from their state’s congressional delegation vote to oppose the certification of Biden’s victory. If you’re looking for potential GOP primary challengers to these GOP senators, those delegations are a good place to start.

Here’s a bit of a dig into the 2022’ers, and where they stand on voting against certifying the election. 

Tough seats

Roy Blunt (Mo.) … Not challenging … Blunt is a close ally of McConnell, and McConnell has opposed this entire effort. But Hawley is leading the challenge charge, so Blunt’s opposition could land Blunt in hot water with Trump faithful back home. Four Missouri House Republicans — Reps. Sam Graves, Vicky Hartzler, Jason Smith and Billy Long  — are all supporting the Trump challenge. Blunt squeaked by in his last general election by three points.

Ron Johnson (Wis.) … Challenging … Johnson has been all over the map here. He initially signaled he wouldn’t challenge. But since this group of 12 came together, he’s now backing it. Democrats won Wisconsin in November and would love to knock off Johnson.

In between

Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) …  Not challenging  … Murkowski won a write-in campaign. She walks on political water in Alaska. 

Jerry Moran (Kan.) … Not saying yet … Moran faces a Kansas GOP delegation, including brand new Sen. Roger Marshall, that is backing the Trump challenge. Moran coasted to an easy win in 2016, but Democrats have become more competitive there.

Chuck Grassley (Iowa) …  No plans to object … Grassley is 87. Will he run again in 2022?

Rob Portman (Ohio) … Not challenging … This should be an easy race for Portman, who won handily in 2016. Yet he’s another close ally of McConnell who may run into trouble back home thanks to this issue. Rep. Jim Jordan and other members of the delegation are vocally backing Trump.

Marco Rubio (Fla.) … Not saying what he’ll do until Jan. 6 … Florida is a reddening state, but could voting against Trump draw a challenge from the president’s daughter, a new resident of Miami? Rubio won easily in 2016 after saying he would retire to run for president. But this cycle, Rubio will have to run in a non-presidential year, which could help Democrats.

Easy seats

Richard Shelby (Ala.)  … Has said the election is over … Little danger for Shelby, who easily turned back a primary challenger last time, and has $9.7 million on hand. Shelby is 86 and hasn’t said yet whether he’s running yet, so threats aren’t gonna scare him.

John Boozman (Ark.) … Not saying yet … Boozman has cover to go in either direction, with Sen. Tom Cotton voting for certification. 

Mike Crapo (Idaho) … Not saying yet. Idaho is Trump country; Trump won it by 30 points in November. Crapo is not showing his hand at this point.

Todd Young (Ind.) … Not saying yet. Young is a pro-leadership guy, having served as NRSC chair last cycle. And fellow Indiana Sen. Mike Braun is opposing the Trump challenge. But several House members  from Indiana will vote for it, including conservative Rep. Jim Banks, who is ambitious and chairs the Republican Study Committee.

Rand Paul (Ky.) … Not saying yet. There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding Paul’s intentions. He has not joined the Hawley-Cruz faction, although there was talk he would. Paul often goes his own way, though, so we will know when he tells us.

John Kennedy (La.) … Challenging. Kennedy has been one of the most vocal supporters of the certification challenge. Louisiana has become reliably red, with Trump winning the state in a romp.

John Hoeven (N.D.)  … Not challenging. Hoeven is getting cover from Sen. Kevin Cramer and Rep. Kelly Armstrong, both of whom are voting for certification.

James Lankford (Okla.) …  Challenging. Lankford’s decision to support the certification challenge surprised some GOP senators. However, Sen. Jim Inhofe is supporting the challenge, as are other members of the Oklahoma delegation, including Reps. Markwayne Mullin and Kevin Hern.

Tim Scott (S.C.) …  Not saying yet. Scott is pretty solid politically in South Carolina no matter what he does here. And Sen. Lindsay Graham doesn’t look like he will back the Trump challenge. However, four members of the South Carolina delegation — Reps. Jeff Duncan, Joe Wilson, Ralph Norman and William Timmons — have all announced they will oppose certification.

John Thune (S.D.) … Not challenging. Thune has become a Trump target since he said that the president lost the election and it was time to move on (like McConnell.) His fellow South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds will support certification, as will Rep. Dusty Johnson, the state’s only House member.

Mike Lee (Utah) … Not challenging. Lee has circulated a letter opposing the certification challenge. Sen. Mitt Romney  is one of Trump’s loudest GOP critics, so Lee has company here.

PRIMETIME TV

Hawley on the electoral challenge

Watch Fox News’ Bret Baier as he tries to get Hawley to explain just what he’s up to with his challenge to the election results. Baier pushes Hawley hard. You watch and decide.

Moments

— The Senate has nothing going on today.

— Voting in Georgia ends at 7 p.m.

— Trump’s schedule:  “President Trump will work from early in the morning until late in the evening. He will make many calls and have many meetings.”

Clip file

NYT: Annie Karni and Maggie Haberman: “Pence’s Choice: Side With the Constitution or His Boss”: “Two people briefed on the discussions said Mr. Trump had directly pressed Mr. Pence to find an alternative to certifying Mr. Biden’s win, such as preventing him from having 270 electoral votes and letting the election be thrown to the House to decide.”

• Other nuggets: Pence met with the Senate parliamentarian for hours Sunday … The VP’s trip abroad was canceled … Pence will brief Trump on what will happen Wednesday before he goes to the Capitol.

… NYT front page: Peter Baker: “An Insurgency From Inside the Oval Office”

WaPo: “Trump sabotaging GOP on his way out of office with push to overturn election,” by Phil Rucker, Ashley Parker, Josh Dawsey and Seung Min Kim

… Peter Hermann and Martin Well: “Proud Boys leader arrested in the burning of church’s Black Lives Matter banner, D.C. police say”: “Police said [Enrique] Tarrio, who was in custody Monday evening, also was charged with two felony counts of possession of high-capacity ammunition feeding devices, which is a legal term for a magazine that allows guns to hold additional bullets. The devices were found during the arrest, police said.”

WSJ: “CEOs Urge Congress to Certify Biden’s Electoral College Win,” by Emily Glazer

POLITICO: Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine: “Inside McConnell’s handling of Trump’s election challenge”

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