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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Tomorrow: Join us for our final event in the Road to Recovery Series tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. in-person at The Roost or virtually on the livestream. We’ll be interviewing Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) about the uneven recovery for women-owned small businesses, followed by a fireside chat with Iowa small business owners sponsored by Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Business voices. RSVP here!

… And we’re back

Good Monday morning. Congress is back in town this week — the Senate today, the House tomorrow — and Democratic leaders and the White House face huge challenges. That’s where we’re going to start this morning: The Democratic leadership’s to do list. 

→ Party leaders must make progress on their stalled reconciliation package — the problem is bigger than just Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) — with the clock ticking on the Oct. 31 deadline for voting on the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill. It is just 13 days away.

That’s when the 30-day extension for federal surface transportation programs expires. Remember, Speaker Nancy Pelosi called for a delay in the House infrastructure vote to provide House and Senate leaders with more time to come up with a deal on the multi-trillion dollar reconciliation package. At the very least a topline number. Something. Pelosi, in fact, wanted to pass the infrastructure bill “well before then — the sooner the better, to get the jobs out there,” she said in her Oct. 2 “Dear Colleague” letter.

Yet less than two weeks before that deadline, there’s zero chance the reconciliation package will be completed by then. It’s not even clear that an agreement is possible on a topline number by that date. There’s daily staff-level discussions between House and Senate leadership aides and committee staffers, along with White House officials, but no one seems willing to make the tough political decisions required in order to reduce a $3.5 trillion reconciliation package to the $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion level that Manchin, Sinema and other moderates will accept. Pelosi seems like she’s ready to do it, although so far, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and the White House aren’t willing to go along with House Democrats’ positions on the legislation. At this point, while the message publicly is that there’s “progress” in the discussions, it doesn’t appear to match what’s happening behind the scenes.

Also, you shouldn’t underestimate the continued unhappiness among House Democrats over Schumer’s decision not to inform them for two months about Manchin’s letter saying he’d only support a $1.5 trillion reconciliation package.

Unless a topline deal comes together soon, Pelosi and the White House may be forced into another wrenching call — delay a vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill yet again, which would upset moderates, or try to move forward in the face of heavy progressive opposition. 

Manchin — whose feud with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has become a big story in West Virginia and nationally — and Sinema continue to dominate the reconciliation headlines.

The New York Times’ Coral Davenport first reported that Manchin has objected to the $150 billion “clean electricity program,” which is designed to help push utilities from burning fossil fuels into renewable energy sources. Manchin’s opposition, which lines up with his proposed agreement with Schumer, is a blow to both President Joe Biden as he prepares for a major climate change summit in Scotland, as well as advocates who want to use the reconciliation package to push the United States into taking a leadership role on global warming. 

Then Axios reported on Sunday night that Manchin “has told the White House the child tax credit must include a firm work requirement and family income cap in the $60,000 range,” according to our friend Hans Nichols. This is another setback for Democrats, who have made extending the credit — boosted under the American Rescue Plan for one year — a big part of their Build Back Better agenda. Manchin’s position on the credit, which is more in line with what Senate Republicans have proposed, also jibes with what the West Virginia Democrat outlined in his letter to Schumer back in July.

Other highlights of this Axios report include: “Neither Manchin nor Sinema endorsed Biden’s compromise price for the social spending plan in the $1.9 trillion to $2.2 trillion range,”; Manchin is open to Biden’s proposal on free universal pre-school, but he wants to trim proposed day-care subsidies; Manchin is “less interested” in the Biden’s proposals for paid family leave or elder care.

All this is certain to infuriate progressives, who’ve already had it with Manchin and Sinema anyway. But it shows once again the extraordinary influence any single Democrat can have right now with the margins in the House and Senate so tight. And it seems like Manchin’s demands are getting even more onerous.  

→ Reminder: The House is only scheduled to be in session for 17 legislative days between now and when it leaves for Thanksgiving. And there are only 21 legislative days until government funding runs out on Dec. 3. There’s been no progress toward a bipartisan agreement on the annual spending bills, and probably won’t be until there is some determination of the Democrats’ path forward on reconciliation. And there’s still that issue of the debt limit lurking out there that Democrats will have to deal with at some point.

→ Also up this week in the House –– The Jan. 6 select committee will vote Tuesday on holding Steve Bannon, one-time aide to former President Donald Trump — in contempt for failing to comply with the panel’s subpoena. Bannon insists he’s not defying the select committee but is complying with Trump’s executive privilege claim in declining to cooperate. House leaders are still considering whether to bring the contempt resolution to the floor this week once it’s approved by the select committee. Biden told reporters that he thinks people who don’t cooperate with the select committee should be prosecuted, which pleased Democrats but led Republicans to complain that the president is signaling improperly with the Justice Department what he wants to see done. Which is ironic because Democrats said that about Trump a lot.

Overall, it seems likely the full House will refer the Bannon case quickly to DOJ, especially by the historical standard for these issues. We’ve seen the House drag out civil and criminal contempt referrals for months in the past. But with the select committee eager to move as fast as possible in its probe, the timetable for full House action will be much shorter.

→ On the Senate side, Schumer will file cloture Monday on the Freedom to Vote Act, a voting rights bill. Manchin has joined all 49 of his Senate Democratic colleagues in supporting this legislation, which marks a change from his opposition to an earlier Democratic initiative, the For The People Act. 

Senate Republicans remain strongly opposed to any Democratic voting rights bills, so they will block it when it comes up Wednesday. But Schumer will have demonstrated Democratic unity on this issue, something he’s been working toward for months. 

The Coverage: AP’s Jonathan Lemire and Zeke Miller: “Crunch time: Biden faces critical next 2 weeks for agenda” 

Politico: “Dems find their unifying goal: ‘Put points on the board,’” by Burgess Everett and Sarah Ferris

INTRODUCING…THE WORKFORCE

We’re thrilled to announce our latest editorial product, The Workforce.

Government and the private sector are rethinking their roles in preparing for the future labor market needs and Covid-19 has only added to the urgency as we are undergoing the most severe worker shortage on record. We’ll be profiling four leaders over the next two months who are redefining the future of the workforce. Stay tuned for our first feature launching Wednesday. 

ON THE AIR

What West Virginians are seeing

West Virginia is, at the moment, a veritable hotbed of political advertising. The state’s voters are seeing a spate of ads all focused on one man: Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.).

Check out this ad from Maintaining Mountain Values, a group that typically pressures Manchin. The 30-second spot urges Manchin to stand up to the Democratic leadership. “America elected Biden but got Bernie instead. Tell Joe Manchin — don’t give in to this liberal madness.” Thanks to AdImpact for the spot.

The West Virginia Oil Marketers and Grocers Association has a spot telling West Virginians to thank Manchin for standing up to “tax and spend liberals.” The ad accuses Democrats of “attacking our way of life” and seeking to hike taxes on tobacco products “like dip and chew.”

Put together, you can see the push and pull Manchin goes through at home. 

FRONTS

Manchin all over the front pages

LOOKAHEAD

What’s popping this week

→ The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will meet Tuesday to vote on a large group of ambassadors including Tom Nides, Joe Biden’s nominee to be the ambassador to Israel; Cindy McCain, who is the administration’s pick to be the liaison to the World Food Programme in Rome; former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), who is up for the posting in Turkey; Jack Markell, who is up to be the nominee to the OECD in Paris; former Sen. Tom Udall (D-N.M.), who Biden named as the ambassador to New Zealand; and David Cohen, the Comcast exec who is up to be the ambassador to Canada. 

→ Senate Foreign Relations will also begin its consideration of Rahm Emanuel to be ambassador to Japan and Nick Burns to be ambassador to China. This hearing is Wednesday.

MOMENTS

10 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his intelligence briefing.

1 p.m.: Vice President Kamala Harris will leave Los Angeles for Las Vegas. … Jen Psaki will brief. 

3:05 p.m.: Harris will visit Lake Mead and speak about the infrastructure bill and the reconciliation package.

5:55 p.m.: Harris will leave Las Vegas for D.C.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Biden’s Plans Raise Questions About What U.S. Can or Cannot Afford to Do,” by Jim Tankersley

→ “As Some Black Staff Members Leave Congress, Those Who Remain Call for Change,” by Aishvarya Kavi

→ “As Manchin Blocks Climate Plan, His State Can’t Hold Back Floods,” by Christopher Flavelle in Farmington, W.Va.

WaPo

→ “In allied capitals, a nuanced, cautious view of Biden,” by Karen DeYoung

→“Are Virginia’s Black voters energized or tired? McAuliffe brings in the big guns to motivate a crucial Democratic constituency.” by Gregory S. Schneider in Norfolk

WSJ

→ “Unions Push Companies as Workers Stay Scarce,” by Jessica Newman

AP

→ “Harris to discuss drought, climate change at Lake Mead,” by Suman Naishadham

→“Jill Biden says SC ‘prayer partner’ helped change her life,” by Darlene Superville in West Columbia, S.C.

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images