View in web browser

PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Good Tuesday morning, and happy Election Day to everyone in Virginia, New Jersey and Stamford, Conn. — Jake’s hometown — where former New York Mets manager Bobby Valentine is trying to become the mayor of the second-largest city in the Nutmeg State.

The fate of President Joe Biden’s agenda has always hinged on several Democratic power centers on Capitol Hill: House progressives; House moderates; and Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.). 

But in the last 12 or so hours, we’ve seen each of these groups shift strategy and exercise power in important ways.

→ Manchin’s news conference on Monday made clear that he has no problem with killing the reconciliation bill if Democratic congressional leaders and the White House don’t move the proposal in his direction. He made abundantly clear that he hasn’t approved of Biden’s framework and there’s a lot of work to be done, including a deep dive into the long-term fiscal and economic impact of the legislation. He called the Democrats’ budgetary offsets “shell games.” And Manchin made clear he’s sick of progressives holding the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill hostage in hopes he’ll commit to voting for the Build Back Better Act. In fact, Manchin said it’s counterproductive.

→ After weeks of saying that they wouldn’t vote for the bipartisan infrastructure bill until they get ironclad assurances that Manchin and Sinema will back the Build Back Better Act, leading House progressives now say they’re ready to vote for both this week. Speaker Nancy Pelosi told her leadership team that the Rules Committee could meet Wednesday on this legislation, signaling a possible floor vote by the end of the week on BBB and the bipartisan infrastructure bill.

→ Moderates are now expressing serious concerns that could threaten progress on the reconciliation package. They’re privately griping about immigration provisions that may be added to the $1-trillion plus proposal. Some want an official Congressional Budget Office score before voting for the measure. This came to a head last night during a meeting of the moderate Blue Dog Coalition.

All these moves reflect changing political realities facing Democrats as they march into November and the reconciliation endgame. Manchin continues to try to drag the reconciliation package toward the center somewhat, but there’s still a sense in his orbit that he’s being made to swallow policies that he opposes, such as Medicare expansion. So Manchin is establishing that the debate will go at his pace — or not at all.

Progressives, who had been holding the line successfully for weeks, have softened their opposition, in part because they don’t want to be blamed for the continued delay in advancing President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda, especially following last week’s debacle over the bipartisan infrastructure bill.

Here’s Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, with a brand new tone:

“I just have to believe what the president says and the president said right after [Manchin] spoke that he is confident he can deliver 51 votes for this plan. I am going to trust the president. Our members are going to trust the president and we are going to do the job that we need to do which is pass both bills through the House and whatever Sen. Manchin says is, you know, up to him.”

Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), another leading progressive, said it’s time to move forward — even without assurances from Manchin:

“We have an informed sense of confidence [Manchin will support the bill]. … Is it as ironclad as I’d like? No. Am I taking a step if not a leap of faith? Yes. Could I end up in the witness protection program politically? Absolutely. But at the same time, Joe Manchin is never going to say everything we want exactly the way we want it. It’s just not going to happen.” 

But we have bad news for Democrats — moderate Blue Dogs aren’t down with your plans right now.

Several sources tell us that the group of middle-of-the-road Democrats is ready to block consideration of the BBB unless leadership gets a CBO score. We’re told at least five Democrats — Reps. Stephanie Murphy (Fla.), Jared Golden (Maine), Kurt Schrader (Ore.), Jim Costa (Calif.) and Ed Case (Hawaii) — could block action on the BBB without an analysis of the revenue and spending impacts. This echoes Manchin’s position. 

There’s lots of complicating factors here. Democrats could cobble together budgetary analysis from CBO, the Joint Committee on Taxation and unofficial scoring from the White House. That could sway some moderates, but we’ll see. 

There’s also a chance that Democratic leadership would move to “deem” the bipartisan infrastructure bill passed as part of the rule on floor debate for reconciliation. This would make the rule vote very high stakes — but it would also avoid multiple votes. It would be a recognition that Republicans are unlikely to provide the votes needed to pass the infrastructure bill. All of this is up in the air.

At this point, one thing is certain: moderates are going to have a chance to flex their muscles now. We’ll see if they take the opportunity. 

We caught up with Pelosi Monday evening. Here’s a snippet from that conversation.

Jake: “Do you have any reaction to Joe Manchin’s comments today?”

Pelosi: “We’re on course. We’re on our course to pass our bill. And there was nothing new in what he had to say. Did you think?”

Jake: “I did, yes.”

Pelosi: “What did you think was new?”

Jake: “I think he said he’s fine with voting for it and he’s fine with not voting for it. That seemed new to me.”

Pelosi: “Well, we’re not finished but everything he talked about — our bill’s paid for, it reduces the debt, also, all the economists who view it say that the way it is paid for will not contribute to inflation. We don’t take inflation lightly, but this bill does not contribute to it.”

So, yes, Democratic leaders want a vote this week. We’ll see if they can get one. It’ll take a lot of finessing. The bill isn’t done yet — there’s still negotiating going on! But Pelosi is scheduled to go to Glasgow next week for a global climate-change conference, and she’s going to want this all wrapped up beforehand. Again, color us skeptical.

ELECTION NIGHT ACROSS THE RIVER

What House Democrats are saying about Terry McAuliffe

Virginians will go to the polls today to elect their next governor, and it’s a toss-up between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin. The latest polls give Youngkin a slight edge, which is a huge shift from late summer and into September. Only one public poll between July and mid-October — a University of Mary Washington poll in mid-September — had Youngkin ahead.

Part of this is money — Youngkin is a very wealthy former private enquiry fund CEO who has poured millions of his own dollars of his one money into the race, negating McAuliffe’s fundraising prowess.

Part of this is McAuliffe’s own campaign blunders, including an enormous gaffe during a Sept. 29 debate with Youngkin. McAuliffe’s now infamous line — “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach” — has become a rallying cry for Youngkin’s campaign. It came amidst a wave of bitter nationwide battles over mask mandates for students and the ginned-up “critical race theory” controversy. Youngkin’s campaign will become a blueprint for Republicans nationally in 2022. He also had former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, but mostly tried to stay away from him. 

And part of this is Joe Biden. Biden’s approval rating has tanked since the disastrous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, a resurgence of Covid cases due to the Delta variant, a less-than-hoped for economic recovery and continued problems at the U.S.-Mexico border. Congress’ inaction on the Build Back Better agenda has also hurt Biden’s standing and Democrats everywhere.

So let’s play out a possible McAuliffe loss and what it may mean for Biden and Democrats on the Hill.

1) A McAuliffe defeat will scare moderates and drive them away from supporting Biden’s agenda. This is perhaps the biggest concern we hear expressed daily among Democratic members and senators. That the long delays on passing big reconciliation and infrastructure bills are a replay of 2009-10, and we know how that went for Democrats. Will Democrats, fearing a wipeout in 2022, refuse to go along with Biden’s agenda? We don’t see any sign of that yet but we’ll have to wait until today’s results manifest themselves.

2) A McAuliffe defeat will convince Democrats that they better get moving. Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the White House are pressing for a vote this week on both the Build Back Better Act and the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill (the gift that Democrats could never give McAuliffe.) A McAuliffe loss could actually buttress leadership’s arguments. “If we want to keep the House and Senate in 2022, we better start delivering. It’s been eight months since the American Rescue Plan passed. Time to get moving!” It could be another arrow in leadership’s quiver.

3) This is another body blow to Biden. The president had a bad summer. He’s had a bad fall so far. A Virginia loss would play further into that narrative. Biden won Virginia by 10 points in 2020, and now a Republican who never ran for office before — a private equity multi-millionaire! — has defeated a former governor. Biden will shoulder a lot of blame here, especially from McAuliffe allies.

4) Just yelling “Donald Trump” isn’t enough. Yes, Trump wanted to be part of this race, and Democrats badly wanted to put him on the ballot. But the reality is that he’s not. And he won’t be next year either. So as much as Trump loathing motivates the Democratic faithful and political Twitter, it’s not enough to win over independent voters who provide the margin of victory in close races these days. Democratic messaging has to improve.

5) Can Biden go into swing districts or states in 2022? One of Biden’s biggest pluses as a nominee — and as vice president for eight years — was that he’s a moderate who could go anywhere in the country for any candidate anytime. But with his approval rating tanking faster than a “Squid Game” cryptocurrency, if you’re a vulnerable Democratic incumbent, do you want Biden coming to your district or state next year? Especially in a red state? Not right now you don’t. Of course, some of this would happen to any president in this bitterly polarized country. Trump didn’t campaign in many swing races when he was president. But that was not expected to be the case with Biden.

6) What happens to House Democrats? If you’re a House Democrat in a tough race, you’re already worried about redistricting. Does Virginia signal wider losses in the House? What would going back into the minority mean? It’s a question every House Democrat will have to wrestle with now. And there’s also doubts about Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s future. As much as there are Democrats who want to see her go so a new generation of leaders can rise, Pelosi is the ultimate security blanket too. She’s seen as the steadiest of hands in these uncertain times for a generation of lawmakers who’ve never served under another party leader.

COMING TOMORROW….THE WORKFORCE WITH SEC. GINA RAIMONDO

Our second installment of The Workforce is going live tomorrow and features Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. She spoke about the Biden administration’s plans on education, training and hiring. And how workforce development is key to American competitiveness. Check back tomorrow for more.

Can’t wait until tomorrow? Check out our first profile of Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.), Chair of the Education and Labor Committee. 

SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN

Four Corners to meet on 2022 spending bills today

With government funding running out on Dec. 3 and the two parties billions of dollars apart on their spending goals, the “four corners” of the House and Senate Appropriations committees will get together today to try to begin hashing out their differences.

Reps. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) and Kay Granger (R-Texas), chair and ranking member of the House Appropriations Committee, will sit down with Sens. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) and Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), the chair and ranking member of Senate Appropriations.

Republicans want billions more for the Pentagon, while Democrats are seeking to spend more on social programs.

And Republicans complain that passage of the Democrats’ huge reconciliation package focused on social programs — following the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan — would so poison the water that they wouldn’t support anything but continuing resolutions for the rest of the year. That would mean many Trump-era policies remain in place as well.

But that would also jeopardize any Pentagon funding increase, so Democrats have some leverage there.

Shelby suggested he doesn’t believe a spending deal is possible before Dec. 3, and he’s already talking about a stopgap continuing resolution into 2022. 

“I think they’re headed for a CR right now,” Shelby said on Monday night. “First of all, we’ve got Dec. 3. I’m sure we won’t make that. I wish we would. The question is will we kick the can to January, February, March? And then come March, will we kick it into July, and then September.” In other words, Congress may set up mini cliffs throughout the year.

Shelby added: “I think [a CR] is headed to February or March anyway, whether [reconciliation] passes or it don’t pass.”

For her part, DeLauro said, “I don’t know what they’re going to do. I just know we’re going to meet with the ‘four corners’ tomorrow to put a plan in place to move forward. There’s a Dec. 3 deadline. That’s what I’m going to try to hit.” 

FRONTS

MOMENTS

All times Eastern

7:15 a.m.: President Joe Biden will participate in a meeting on the Build Back Better World initiative.

9 a.m.: Biden will speak at an event on the Global Methane Pledge. … House Democrats and House Republicans hold their weekly closed party meetings.

10 a.m.: House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik and other House Republicans will hold their post-meeting news conference.

10:30 a.m.: Biden will speak at the ​​“Accelerating Clean Technology Innovation and Deployment” event. … House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries, Vice Chair Pete Aguilar and other House Democrats hold their post-meeting news conference.

11 a.m.: House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer will hold a virtual pen and pad. 

2 p.m.: Senate Republican and Senate Democratic leaders will hold their post-lunch media availability. 

3:30 p.m.: Biden will hold a news conference. 

5:55 p.m.: Biden will leave Edinburgh for Andrews. 

1:05 a.m.: Biden will land at Andrews. 

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Democrats’ Bill Would Cover Poor Uninsured Adults, Up to a Point,” by Sheryl Gay Stolberg in Albany, Ga. 

→ “What to Watch in Tuesday’s Elections: Virginia, Mayor’s Races and Policing,” by Shane Goldmacher

WaPo

→ “Biden unveils new rules to curb methane, a potent greenhouse gas, from oil and gas operations,” by Dino Grandoni and Steve Mufson

AP

→ “Troubles at home shadow Biden’s climate efforts abroad,” by Josh Boak, Ellen Knickmeyer and Zeke Miller

Politico

→ “Trump, the billionaire family and the bull semen baron who divides them,” by Alex Isenstadt

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

→ “U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson says ‘political pros’ tell him he’s best positioned to keep the seat in GOP hands,” by Bill Glauber

Philadelphia Inquirer

→ “Pa. Senate candidate Sean Parnell’s wife testified that he choked her and hit their children,” by Jonathan Tamari in Butler, Pa.

Enjoying Punchbowl News AM?

Subscribe 10 friends with your unique link (below) and get a Punchbowl News hat!

Your referral link is: 

You can see all the rewards in here!

Or share via

You currently have: 0 referrals

Editorial photos provided by Getty Images