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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Happy Tuesday morning! Today is going to be a busy one, so get ready for some fireworks.

Let’s start with the House. Members will vote today on a criminal contempt referral to the Justice Department against former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, their one-time colleague. Meadows has refused to comply with a subpoena from the select committee investigating the Jan. 6  attack on the Capitol, pointing to an executive privilege claim by former President Donald Trump. That case is now in federal court, and may end up in the Supreme Court.

This is a stunning development for Meadows. No former White House chief of staff has faced criminal charges since H.R. Haldeman, who was indicted for his role in the Watergate scandal nearly 50 years ago. 

Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), chair of the select committee, read a blistering statement on Meadows before the panel approved the contempt referral on Monday night: 

“Whatever legacy he thought he left in the House, this is his legacy now. His former colleagues singling him out for criminal prosecution because he wouldn’t answer questions about what he knows about a brutal attack on our democracy. That’s his legacy.”

Here’s Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), vice chair of the select committee:

​​”We believe Mr. Meadows is improperly asserting executive and other privileges. But this vote on contempt today relates principally to Mr. Meadows’ refusal to testify about text messages and other communications that he admits are not privileged. He has not claimed, and does not have, any privilege bases to refuse entirely to testify regarding these topics.”

Cheney then read text messages from Fox News hosts including Laura Ingraham, Sean Hannity and Brian Kilmeade, as well as Donald Trump Jr. They all texted Meadows during the attack, begging him to have Trump act to stop the violence, which never happened, of course. ‘We need an Oval Office address. He has to lead now. It has gone too far and gotten out of hand,” the younger Trump told Meadows in one message.

If you didn’t see Monday’s select committee hearing, you should go watch it now.

The full House will vote on the contempt referral against Meadows today. There’s no doubt it will be adopted. Then it’ll be up to the Justice Department whether to seek charges against Meadows. We’re not going to speculate on what DOJ will do here. Meadows’ case isn’t analogous to that involving Steve Bannon, who wasn’t working for the Trump administration or the reelection campaign at the time of the Jan. 6 attack. If any one of Trump’s former aides can be covered by an executive privilege claim, it would be Meadows. So we expect DOJ to move deliberately here, whatever they do.

A side note about Meadows: We’ve all covered him for a long time, and he was one of the central characters in Jake and Anna’s book. Meadows is somewhat obsessed with being liked and maintaining what he considered good relationships with members of Congress. As a member of the House, Meadows and his wife frequented the city’s social events. Meadows oftentimes gave the sense that he was in on the joke. Today a majority of the House will recommend he get prosecuted.

The debt limit, NDAA and Manchin with the mods

While the Meadows’ drama unfolds in the House, the Senate will begin the process to raise the debt limit, one day before the Dec. 15 deadline set by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. The House will follow suit later today, but the timing of that vote — ending the possibility of a debt standoff until after the 2022 elections — is uncertain right now. There are 10 hours of Senate debate allowed for under the resolution, divided between the two parties, and it’s not clear how much time GOP opponents will use up.

This will be a party-line vote. Vice President Kamala Harris has already cast 15 tie-breaking votes, and she’ll be needed in this case if all 100 senators show up. 

The Senate also will hold a cloture vote today on the National Defense Authorization Act, with a final vote expected as early as tomorrow. There’s a bipartisan deal on this legislation, passed by Congress every year since 1961, so we expect this to get through pretty easily. It was adopted by the House last week on a 363-70 margin, with more Republicans backing it than Democrats.

One other note — Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is scheduled to meet with a group of moderate Democrats on voting rights today. Manchin hasn’t supported a “carve-out” in the filibuster for voting rights legislation, and it’s very unlikely that he’s going to do so today. But we’ll watch this closely because of its importance to Democrats.

Happening today: We’re hosting our final editorial event of the year this afternoon with Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) on infrastructure and broadband access. RSVP to join us at 4:30 pm!

PUNCHBOWL NEWS x CES

We’re coming to CES!

We’re headed to Las Vegas! Punchbowl News will be an official media partner at CES, The Consumer Electronic Show. We’ll bring you behind the scenes Jan. 5-7 every day in the newsletter. We will also be moderating panels and hosting a reception for our community. We know that top aides on the Hill, members of Congress and others have decamped for Vegas for CES in the past, so we wanted to be there.

Will you be at CES? We’d love to see you there. Let us know below!

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

A briefing on BBB timing

Internally here at Punchbowl News, we go back and forth about whether it’s possible for the Senate to pass the Build Back Better Act by year end. It’s certainly possible, but just too close to call at this point. Everything depends on Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.).

Still, we thought it might be helpful to lay out what needs to happen in order for the Senate to get the BBB through in the next 11 days — which is Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s deadline.

First, let’s start with this: Every single day we hear about new disagreements and hurdles in the BBB process. Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), said in the Capitol Monday that there are more than 20 issues that he is “litigating” with the parliamentarian — that’s a lot, in case you were wondering. We still haven’t gotten a final judgement on the immigration provisions. Separately, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) continue to disagree on the SALT tax cap. This would all have to be settled in order to move forward.

Manchin still sounds skeptical about getting a bill this year. On Monday, Manchin said he’s still “engaged” in talks and plans to speak with President Joe Biden again this week. He said anything is possible when asked if something can get passed this month. And, indeed, we guess that’s true!

If Senate Democrats want to move to the floor next week — Christmas week — the parliamentarian needs to wrap up her review this week. Once the bill hits the floor, we expect approximately four days of legislative wrangling. So if we don’t see a bill on the floor by Tuesday — a week from today —  passage before Christmas is unlikely. 

Of course, the Senate could take off Christmas Eve and Christmas and come back the following week to wrap up before New Year’s Eve. There’s time for that to be done. Schumer has pushed his colleagues on the Child Tax Credit, which expires on Dec. 31. The House will be on recess and can be recalled quickly once the Senate passes a bill.

INSIDE THE HOUSE DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP

The last stand of the “Old Guard”

We were struck by a recent spate of stories on Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn. First we’ll talk about the stories and then we’ll try to sum up what it all means for the octogenarian trio, who have run the House Democratic Caucus for nearly two decades.

First, our friend Issac Dovere at CNN reported that Pelosi will file for reelection next year, batting down the rumors that she may leave the House before the end of this Congress. 

A number of lawmakers, including some senior Republicans, have privately speculated for months that Pelosi would step aside in 2022 if it looked like the GOP was going to take back the majority in the midterm elections. Pelosi, in this scenario, wouldn’t want to hand the speaker’s gavel to current House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, reprising the role she played more than a decade earlier with John Boehner. At the same time, the 81-year-old Pelosi would try to pick a successor for her San Francisco district.

Dovere added this: “And sources familiar with Pelosi’s thinking say she isn’t ruling out the possibility of trying to stay in leadership after 2022, despite her original vow to leave as the top House Democrat.”

In the CNN story, Clyburn was quoted as not being interested in becoming the speaker at any point. “Being speaker is not in my plans,” Clyburn said. “At some point, I want to go to a rocking chair. At some point I want to have more time to play golf.”

As for Hoyer, he filed for reelection on Monday. If the 82-year-old Hoyer wins — and he will — it will be Hoyer’s 22nd term. He won a special election in May 1981. 

“I’m running again because I think that I can continue to play a very positive role in leading us to respond to the challenges we have in a robust and effective way,” Hoyer told Bruce DePuyt of Maryland Matters, which follows all things political in the Free State.

Now, let’s go back to the 81-year-old Clyburn. The South Carolina Democrat told Alexi McCammond of Axios that he had no intention of stepping aside for a new generation of Democrats.

“I never asked anybody to die for me…If you want my seat, come get it,” Clyburn said.

So what does this all mean?

Pelosi isn’t going to be in the House Democratic leadership in the next Congress unless it’s as speaker. If the Democrats somehow hold on to their majority in the 2022 elections, she could, and probably would, stay on, at least for some period. It would be a huge upset win, and Democrats would reward her.

But it seems unlikely that Pelosi will be the House minority leader in the 118th Congress — if Democrats lose the majority. Yet the important thing to remember here is that Pelosi will make her own decision on her timetable. And Pelosi isn’t leaving until she announces she’s leaving.

You should think of these new reports, in part, as messaging to party donors, as much as to House Democrats, Republicans and the media. Pelosi will be the steady hand at the helm through the election. Hoyer and Clyburn will be part of that effort.

As part of the “Pelosi leaves in 2022” rumors, Hoyer was seen as a possible interim speaker, a bridge to the next generation of leaders. House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries of New York is seen as the most  likely successor following the midterms. Assistant Speaker Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) is also in that mix. If Pelosi is staying put, that’s no longer viable, of course.

Hoyer and Clyburn remain enormously influential in and out of the caucus. Just look at the role Clyburn played during the 2020 elections. And he’s got allies throughout the Bide administration. So does Hoyer.

FRONTS

MOMENTS

10 a.m.: President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will receive their daily briefing. 

11:30 a.m.: Harris and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will speak and participate in a moderated conversation at the Freedman’s Bank Forum.

Noon: Republican senators including Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) will speak about IRS funding.

12:30 p.m.: House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries and Vice Chair Pete Aguilar will speak after their party meeting.

1 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief reporters.

2:30 p.m.: Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) will speak about the BBB’s investments in children.

5:15 p.m.: Pelosi and congressional leaders will hold a moment of silence for 800,000 Americans lost in Covid-19. This will be on the steps on the East Front of the Capitol.

6:15 p.m.: The Bidens, Harris and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff will attend a DNC holiday celebration.

THE WORKFORCE

Make sure to check out our four profiles in The Workforce on Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.), Commerce Sec. Gina Raimondo, Guild Education Co-Founder and CEO Rachel Carlson, and Hispanic Heritage Foundation President and CEO Antonio Tijerino! Each leader provided their thoughts on what the future of the workforce will look like and how we can best prepare workers to meet the demands of the labor market. 

We also created custom videos for each profile and a final wrap video featuring all four leaders. Read all four profiles here and don’t miss our wrap video here!  

CLIP FILE

NYT

WaPo

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