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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Happy Friday morning. It’s Friday. Ahh. 

Following yesterday’s action extending government funding until March 11, the Senate will be gone from D.C. until Feb. 28. President Joe Biden will give his first State of the Union address the following day, with all members and senators invited to attend (but no guests). Official Washington will thus have one of its grandest traditions restored, at least partially.

The scenario is classic – a troubled president, down in the polls and besieged at home and abroad, goes in front of Congress as he tries to resuscitate his own standing, as well as that of his party. At least that’s sort of normal, if nothing else is these days.

So with February essentially over for Congress, let’s look back at the last month for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. It’s an exercise we do frequently at Punchbowl News.

→ For Schumer, this recent period – in the wake of the huge letdown from the voting rights and filibuster battle – has included some serious challenges, as well as a significant political opportunity.

The retirement of Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer has given Schumer and Senate Democrats a chance to rally their base while also making history by confirming the first Black woman to the high court. Biden has promised to pick a nominee by the end of February and Schumer has vowed to quickly move that nominee through the confirmation process. Although this new justice won’t shift the ideological balance of the court, she will represent a political victory for a president, Senate majority leader and Democratic Party badly in need of one.

Yet Sen. Ben Ray Luján’s (D-N.M.) stroke was a stark reminder of just how tenuous the Democrats’ margin of control is in a 50-50 Senate. Thankfully Luján, 49, is expected to make a full recovery and return to the Senate in a few weeks, in time for a Supreme Court vote.

Schumer and the White House have also given in to the reality that the Build Back Better Act is stalled. While Schumer and other Democrats continue to negotiate with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) behind-the-scenes in a bid to find some sort of compromise on Biden’s top legislative priority, this actually allowed the two parties to reach a deal on a topline number for the FY 2022 spending bills. Democrats’ push to pass BBB had been the biggest impediment to such a bipartisan agreement. House and Senate appropriators are now rushing to put together an omnibus spending package by the new government funding deadline of March 11. That package will include billions of dollars in earmarks for lawmakers in both chambers, an added bonus heading into November.

Schumer also hopes to move a major U.S. Postal Service reform bill when the Senate returns. Passage of that legislation has been delayed by an embarrassing technical error by House clerks, but it will get through eventually. And Schumer is pressing forward on USICA, a major legislative effort to beef up U.S. high-tech research and manufacturing to take on China.

Thursday also was a big moment for Schumer personally – the New York State Democratic Party nominated him for another term as senator, his fifth.

"I am fighting the fight every single day," Schumer said during his acceptance speech. "I tell people this is the hardest job I’ve ever had but I have more energy and more enthusiasm for it because it’s so damn important and I won’t quit until we win."

However, there were some notable failures for Schumer as well, and there’s clearly frustration inside Senate Democratic ranks, both with Schumer and the White House. Schumer isn’t in any danger of a leadership challenge, and no one but Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is openly criticizing his conduct as leader. But there was grumbling in Democratic ranks following the voting rights-filibuster drama. Schumer rejects such criticism as politically clueless. For the Democratic leadership, failing to take that fight to the end would have alienated the base like nothing else.

Some Democrats, however, struggle with Schumer’s “frantic style,” as one senator put it. There’s also second guessing of his management of the Senate floor. This is slightly unfair, since no one has ever had to deal with a 50-50 Senate as long as Schumer has. It’s uncharted territory for the Senate or any majority leader.

But just in the last few weeks, on top of everything else he has going on, Schumer has backed marijuana legalization and unionization for Senate staff, called for the end of Title 42 deportations and endorsed a ban on stock trading by lawmakers, all while being involved in a myriad of New York State issues. “He tries to be all things to all people all the time,” the Democratic senator quipped.

The two parties weren’t able to agree on a Russia sanctions bill despite the specter of 150,000 Russian troops massed on the border with Ukraine, poised for invasion at any moment. The Senate, instead, issued a bipartisan statement, as well as a separate non-binding resolution bashing Russia. While not Schumer’s fault, it showed once again how feckless Congress can be during a serious foreign policy crisis.

But most ominously for Democrats is what has occurred inside the Senate Banking Committee. Republicans are boycotting the committee’s consideration of Sarah Bloom Raskin for a top regulatory post at the Federal Reserve. This same tactic – which was already successful inside the Small Business Committee to block a different Biden pick – has disrupted the confirmation of five Fed nominees, including Jerome Powell as chair. And it comes as the Fed is preparing to raise interest rates to tame inflation, the biggest economic issue of the moment. The Fed can still act — Powell is still in place as acting chair — yet it’s turning into a serious stalemate impacting the nation’s central bank.

The nightmare scenario for Democrats, though, is this GOP tactic can be deployed inside the Judiciary Committee to a Supreme Court nominee. Think of that. Republicans come up with a reason to not show up for the Judiciary Committee hearing to vote on a Supreme Court nominee. The nominee is stuck unless the Senate somehow figures out a way changes its rules. This will keep Schumer and Democrats up at night.

→ For McConnell, the last few weeks have had their ups and downs. Former President Donald Trump continues to bash McConnell as an “old crow,” although the Kentucky Republican was able to turn that into a joke.

Yet the former president’s meddling in Senate GOP primaries remains a problem for McConnell, especially in places such as Arizona, where his preferred candidate Doug Ducey hasn’t shown any sign of getting into the race. Another potential high-profile recruit, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, also passed on a run.

GOP fundraising remains strong, though, and Biden’s poll numbers are weak, all of which leads McConnell to predict his party will have a good November.

McConnell also openly picked a fight with the RNC over its resolution censuring Reps. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.). McConnell was particularly scornful of a reference to the Jan. 6 insurrection as a “legitimate political discourse.”

“We saw what happened,” McConnell went out of his way to tell reporters. “It was a violent insurrection for the purpose of trying to prevent the peaceful transfer of power after a legitimately certified election, from one administration to the next. That’s what it was.”

McConnell never does anything without a reason, and he chose this fight deliberately. McConnell wanted to signal that he’s opposed to the extremist element in the GOP tied to Trump and Trumpism, and that’s the message he wants the Senate Republican Conference to push this fall. Conservative, but not crazed. And he wants nothing to distract from turning the election into a referendum on Biden’s record. He’s not willing to fight the 2020 election all over again.

There’s one other thing – McConnell turns 80 on Sunday.  He’s exactly nine months older than his friend Joe Biden, who will hit this milestone on Nov. 20. Speaker Nancy Pelosi will turn 82 next month. We note all this because never before in American history have the president and top Democrat and Republican in Congress all been octogenarians. Americans are living longer than in the past, so it’s no surprise that this would be reflected in the age of its top political leaders. But it is also a testament to the extraordinary length of their individual political careers, each of which have spanned many decades.

So happy birthday, McConnell!

THE CROWN

Why McCarthy backed Cheney’s primary opponent

This is clearly a Senate focused analysis this morning, but we wanted to mention House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s endorsement of Harriet Hageman, Rep. Liz Cheney’s (R-Wyo.) primary opponent.

The NRCC, which McCarthy controls, doesn’t get involved in primaries in any way, shape or form. But McCarthy broke that unofficial policy in backing Hageman, who already had the endorsement of former President Donald Trump.

Truth be told, McCarthy’s move here – which he leaked to The Federalist, a conservative outlet – was probably a wise internal political play, as unseemly as it may seem to GOP traditionalists. 

McCarthy has headed off efforts to boot Cheney from the House Republican Conference, arguing that Cheney should be defeated at the ballot box instead. Remember that McCarthy’s only goal is to win the majority and become speaker of the House, something that has eluded him for a half-dozen years. If he did nothing on Cheney, McCarthy would open himself up to criticism that he was aiding and abetting the Wyoming Republican, who has committed the cardinal sin of crossing Trump. Of the many hurdles McCarthy has to face in his quest to become speaker, perhaps the most unpredictable – and in many ways, the most dangerous – is angering Trump. McCarthy’s friends and supporters live in constant fear that the former president will undermine the California Republican just as he is ascending to the speakership.

McCarthy allies hate Cheney. They think she’s a craven political opportunist who seeks to be in the spotlight. Cheney world thinks McCarthy is a lightweight, a toady to Trump and doesn’t deserve to be the leader of the House GOP. There’s no love lost here.

Also, it’s not unheard of for a party leader to endorse against a sitting member of Congress. Cheney did it in 2020 when she backed Rep. Thomas Massie’s (R-Ky.) opponent after Trump suggested he should be defeated.

But as Cheney found out when Massie won, it’s a risk to do so. McCarthy has similarly rolled the dice here. We’ll see what happens.

BEHIND THE SCENES

A quick semiconductor chips huddle

Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo held a call Thursday with lawmakers key to developing a compromise bill to spur domestic semiconductor chip production and combat the rise of China’s high-tech industry.

Raimondo spoke with Sens. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) and Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), the top lawmakers on the Senate Commerce Committee, and Reps. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) and Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), the top lawmakers on the House Energy and Commerce panel. 

USICA/Endless Frontiers/America COMPETES/Make It In America – the various names of the anti-China legislation – will be the subject of a high-stakes negotiation between the House and Senate in the months ahead. This wasn’t the beginning of negotiations, but rather just a catch-up briefing, according to sources familiar with the call.

PUNCHBOWL NEWS TURNS ONE!

On Wednesday night, we celebrated one year of Punchbowl News at Hotel Monaco. We’re so proud of the community, team, and company we’ve built since we launched on Jan. 3, 2021 and can’t wait for what’s to come next year. Check out photos from the event here!

CONGRESS AND THE WORLD

Willkommen: Lawmakers head to Munich for annual security conference

Fourteen senators and eight members of the House are headed to Munich for the annual Munich Security Conference over the weekend. Vice President Kamala Harris is also there.

From the Senate: GOP Sens. Lindsey Graham (S.C.), Ben Sasse (Neb.), Dan Sullivan (Alaska), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Tommy Tuberville (Ala.) and Rob Portman (Ohio). Democratic Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (R.I.), Dick Durbin (Ill.), Amy Klobuchar (Minn.), Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.), Mark Warner (Va.), Chris Coons (Del.), Chris Murphy (Conn.) and Chris Van Hollen (Md.).

From the House: GOP Reps. Mike Turner (Ohio), Jim Banks (Ind.), Buddy Carter (Ga.) and Darrell Issa (Calif.). Democratic Reps. Jim Langevin (R.I.), Jason Crow (Colo.), Tom Malinowski (N.J.) and Elissa Slotkin (Mich.).

NEWS

DCCC raises nearly $12 million in January

The DCCC, facing stiff headwinds to keep the majority, raised $11.7 million in January. The committee has no debt and $87.4 million in cash on hand.

The January total is short of what the DCCC raised in December ($15 million) and November ($12.6 million).

FRONTS

MOMENTS

6:30 a.m.: Vice President Kamala Harris will meet with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Munich. 

9 a.m.: Harris will meet with the presidents of Latvia and Lithuania, and the prime minister of Estonia in Munich. 

10 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.

2:30 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief.

Biden will speak to transatlantic leaders today. The White House hasn’t said when yet.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ News Analysis: “The United States’ Message to Russia: Prove Us Wrong,” by David Sanger in Munich

→ “Durham Distances Himself From Furor in Right-Wing Media Over Filing,” by Charlie Savage

→ “Martin Tolchin, 93, Dies; Times Reporter Was a Founder of The Hill,” by Joseph P. Fried

WaPo

→ “Biden gathers Western allies for crisis talks amid spike in cease-fire violations,” by Andrew Jeong and Stephen Hendrix

→ “In San Francisco and elsewhere, Democrats fight Democrats over where they stand,” by Sean Sullivan and Dave Weigel

→ “Pence defends RNC’s Jan. 6 resolution, avoids criticism of Trump in Stanford speech,” by Reis Thebault

WSJ

→ “Blinken Sees Moment of Peril in Ukraine, Challenges Russia to Commit That It Won’t Invade,” by William Mauldin, Michael R. Gordon and Courtney McBride

→ “Tesla Tells Federal Judge That SEC Is Harassing Elon Musk and the Company,” by Dave Michaels

Bloomberg

→ "Morgan Stanley Relationships Across Wall Street Snared in Probe,” by Sridhar Natarajan, Gillian Tan, and Hema Parmar

Politico

→ “GOP senators steer clear of Trump as rift deepens,” by Burgess Everett and Meridith McGraw

→ “​​‘He’s Always Been a Chameleon’: The Mystery of Ohio’s Leading Republican Candidate,” by Michael Kruse

Texas Tribune

→ “Partisan tactic by Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s campaign delays thousands of requests for mail-in ballots from Texas voters,” by Alexa Ura

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images