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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Good Tuesday morning. We intended to publish a special edition of The Tally this morning focused on the electoral state of play for the House of Representatives in November. But the crisis in Ukraine is worsening, and we thought it best to focus on that. The special edition will be out later this week.

President Joe Biden is facing the most serious foreign policy crisis of his 13 months in office. Russian troops and military equipment have begun to move into the eastern parts of Ukraine, according to European Union officials. This follows Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision on Monday to recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk regions – controlled by Russian-backed separatists – as independent states. The fear is that Putin will use this incursion to provoke a wider military conflict and seize all of Ukraine, a position he justified in a long, winding speech from the Kremlin that questioned Ukraine’s right to even exist. 

“Ukraine has never had its own authentic statehood,” Putin asserted, brushing aside the last 30-plus years of Ukrainian independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union. And in a cynical twist, Putin blamed Ukrainian officials for any military clash if they chose to defend their country from Russian “peacekeepers” that he sent into the separatist-contolled regions. “All responsibility for continued bloodshed will lay solely on the Ukrainian leadership,” Putin claimed.

A senior administration official told reporters on a call Monday night that “this was a speech to the Russian people to justify a war.”

The central question now is whether Biden delivers on the “swift and severe consequences” he repeatedly warned Putin about in the weeks and months leading up to Monday’s dramatic developments. Biden has to convince Western leaders – and NATO allies in Eastern Europe – that the United States can and will act decisively during the most serious crisis the alliance has faced in decades.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in Moscow this morning that his nation is accustomed to sanctions, according to Reuters. 

But the international climate toward Russia is changing appreciably. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said early this morning that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline — which aimed to bring Russian natural gas to Germany — is now canceled. 

"The situation now is a different one," he said, according to Guy Chazan, the FT’s Berlin bureau chief.

Biden issued an executive order on Monday barring U.S. investment, trade and financial transactions with the breakaway regions, and more sanctions will follow today, according to senior administration officials. 

“Tomorrow, the United States will impose sanctions on Russia for this clear violation of international law and Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said following an emergency meeting of the Security Council on Monday night. “We can, will, and must stand united in our calls for Russia to withdraw its forces, return to the diplomatic table, and work toward peace.”

The European Union will adopt new Russian sanctions “this afternoon,” Josep Borrell, its foreign policy chief, said on Tuesday morning. The U.K. has promised to do so as well.

But there was some confusion about how far the White House is prepared to go with this new round of sanctions. During a call Monday evening with reporters, a senior administration official said these additional measures “are not the swift and severe economic measures we have been preparing in coordination with allies and partners should Russia further invade Ukraine.”

When pressed by reporters repeatedly why this was the case, a senior administration official responded: “Russia has had forces in the Donbas region for the past eight years. Their narrative has been that they do not; our… certain knowledge has been that they have. And … they’re apparently now making a decision to do this in a more overt and open way. But this has been the state of affairs in that region and a big part of why it has been so unstable since 2014.”

The Biden administration isn’t reading the room well here. This reaction will be unacceptable to many on Capitol Hill (see below), yet it’s clear that the White House is moving cautiously in responding to Putin’s gambit. Biden also can’t move faster than European allies are prepared to go.

Yet it’s not hyperbole to say the future of NATO is at stake, as is U.S. credibility. This leaves Biden – who campaigned on his fluency and finesse in foreign policy – to unite the Western allies in response. 

There were numerous reports on Twitter and other social media throughout Monday night on continued Russian provocations, including artillery strikes. Russian officials accused Ukrainian forces of launching attacks against “peacekeepers.” Western analysts believe Putin will use these incidents – some of which are allegedly staged – to justify a wide Russian offensive against Ukrainian positions.

Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky – who spoke with Biden for roughly 35 minutes on Monday – urged Ukrainian citizens to resist panicking and said the country’s allies are standing with them: “Ukraine is within its internationally recognized borders, and will remain so. Despite any statements and actions of the Russian Federation. We remain calm and confident … We are not afraid of anything or anyone.”

However, the State Department pulled its embassy staff out of Ukraine, a move first reported by Jennifer Jacobs and Alberto Nardelli of Bloomberg. The statement from Blinken explained the decision is alarming:

Today the Department of State is again taking action for the safety and security of U.S. citizens, including our personnel. For security reasons, Department of State personnel currently in Lviv will spend the night in Poland. Our personnel will regularly return to continue their diplomatic work in Ukraine and provide emergency consular services. They will continue to support the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian government, coordinating on diplomatic efforts. The United States’ commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s aggression is unwavering. The fact that we are taking prudent precautions for the sake of the safety of U.S. government personnel and U.S. citizens, as we do regularly worldwide, in no way undermines our support for, or our commitment to, Ukraine. Our commitment to Ukraine transcends any one location. 

We strongly reiterate our recommendation to U.S. citizens to depart Ukraine immediately. The security situation in Ukraine continues to be unpredictable throughout the country and may deteriorate with little notice. There is a strong likelihood that any Russian military operations would severely restrict commercial air travel. Russian troops have continued to move closer to the border in what looks like plans for an invasion at any moment. There have been reports of increased ceasefire violations in Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk in recent days. And Russia has ordered troops to deploy into the so-called DNR and LNR regions of Ukraine. U.S. citizens who choose to remain in these areas despite our advice to depart Ukraine immediately should remain vigilant and alert to their surroundings. In the event of an attack, U.S. citizens should seek shelter in a hardened structure and monitor major news outlets for guidance on when it is safe to move.     

By contrast, the French ambassador to Ukraine announced his country’s personnel would stay in Kyiv.

The critical questions to us right now are as follows:

→ How far will Putin go, and what’s his timetable? Will he try to seize all of Ukraine or will he partition the country?

→ Will Biden speak to the nation? The State of the Union is a week from today, but can he wait that long to do a national address about the dire situation in Eastern Europe?

→ If this action by Putin – openly putting troops in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions – doesn’t trigger the punishing sanctions Biden promised, what will? White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki, who holds a regular press briefing today, will get grilled on that. 

→ How hard will Congress come down on the White House to punish Russia? As we lay out below, even Biden’s closest allies are now saying it’s time for the punishing sanctions Biden has promised.

→ What happens to the Blinken-Sergey Lavrov summit tentatively scheduled for later this week in Europe? The White House had little to say about this last night. Can the United States afford to sit down with Russia given Putin’s speech and Russia’s corresponding actions? But on the other hand, can it afford to abandon diplomacy?

Remember: Congress is out this week. But you should expect a good deal of pressure on the Biden administration to act, as the White House tries to rally Western allies around its plans. 

All indications public and private point to a prolonged conflict between Russia, Ukraine and the West. It appears as if this is something Putin has envisioned for many years.

Important: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is in Washington and will meet with Blinken today, he said Monday evening.

FRONTS

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING

The ‘Sanction Russia now’ chorus is getting louder

For the last few weeks, Democrats in Congress have deferred to the Biden administration and held off on levying punishing sanctions against Russia. The argument has been that pre-invasion sanctions are counterproductive, and the United States should save its hefty economic punishments until Russian forces move into Ukrainian territory – if they do.

Now there is truly no ambiguity. And Congress is no longer willing to wait. 

The White House’s closest allies are calling for the crippling sanctions that President Joe Biden promised – and they want them now. 

To be sure, we’ve heard very little from the congressional leadership, which is scattered around the globe. Speaker Nancy Pelosi is in London, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy are in Israel and we have not heard anything from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer or Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

But rank-and-file lawmakers, including key players in shaping U.S. foreign policy, are speaking out with one voice: Russian President Vladimir Putin needs to be hit now. 

→ Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Robert Menendez (D-N.J.): “Vladimir Putin’s illegal recognition of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics is an act of unprovoked aggression and a brazen violation of international law. This illegal recognition is an attack on Ukraine’s sovereignty. To be clear, if any additional Russian troops or proxy forces cross into Donbas, the Biden administration and our European allies must not hesitate in imposing crushing sanctions. There must be tangible, far-reaching and substantial costs for Russia in response to this unjustified act.”

→ Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho), ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee: “Putin is using smoke and mirrors to continue chipping away at Ukraine’ sovereignty, in hopes that the West won’t react, which has proved to be true thus far. Today’s events are tantamount to an invasion. This is precisely the kind of action that many of us expected, and it is one step closer to Putin’s clear goal of dismantling Ukraine’s sovereignty. The U.S. and our allies must immediately implement harsh sanctions that Putin cannot ignore.

“We must also immediately increase security assistance to Ukraine. This is outlined in my bill, the NYET Act, as are strong and immediate sanctions. If this administration wishes to have a strong and decisive reaction that will deter even more aggressive behavior, they should follow our lead – the world is watching and decisive action is needed.” via Andrew Desiderio of Politico

→ Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.): “The time for taking action to impose significant costs on President Putin and the Kremlin starts now.  By recognizing two fake ‘People’s Republics’ of Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukrainian territory that his own military actions have carved out of eastern Ukraine since 2014, and then ordering in Russian troops as alleged ‘peacekeepers,’ Putin has rejected the Minsk agreement and clearly violated Ukrainian sovereignty and international law. Instead of choosing the path of diplomatic engagement offered by the United States and Europe, President Putin in a rambling, grievance-fueled speech today has made clear he intends to further invade Ukraine in a blatant effort to redraw the borders of Eastern Europe according to the whims of Moscow.”

→ Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.): “As Russia takes steps to violate Ukraine’s sovereignty, the US stands ready — united with our allies — to respond to any invasion of the Donbas with crippling sanctions on the Kremlin. We won’t stand for Russian aggression.”

→ Sen. Jeff Merkeley (D-Ore.): “This pre-planned attack on Ukraine’s sovereignty is a flagrant breach of international law. I stand with the Ukraine republic against Putin’s Russian imperialism. The economic response in coordination with our partners must be swift and sure.”

→ Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.): “President Biden’s timid sanctions tonight are wholly unequal to this moment. Russia is invading Ukraine now. The time has come for the ‘swift and severe’ sanctions that Joe Biden has long threatened but refused to impose. There is not a minute to lose.”

→ Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas): “[T]he United States must impose devastating sanctions against Putin’s interests, including immediate and mandatory sanctions permanently putting an end to his Nord Stream 2 pipeline.”

→ Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio): “Putin’s decision to recognize the Ukrainian separatist republics is a violation of the Budapest Memorandum  and a pretext for further military action against Ukraine. The administration must immediately enact all available sanctions on Russia.”

→ Reps. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) and Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), the ranking members of the House Foreign Affairs and Armed Services committees: “As we’ve said for months, setting the trigger for meaningful sanctions to Russian tanks rolling across Ukraine’s border was a dangerous mistake. Secretary Blinken committed to a ‘swift and firm response’ by the United States and its allies if Putin recognized Russian-backed separatist republics in Donbas. Now that the Kremlin has done so, we must immediately impose real costs for this blatant act of aggression and flagrant violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Unfortunately, the sanctions previewed by the White House thus far are the definition of impotence.

“With reports that Putin is now sending troops into the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk under the guise of ‘peacekeepers,’ now is not the time for symbolic pinpricks that will serve only to embolden Putin and endanger our friends in Ukraine. Now is the time for President Biden to impose sanctions that strike at the heart of the Russian economy, and permanently end Nord Stream 2 once and for all, as he promised the world he would do.”

MOMENTS

10:15 a.m.: President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will get their daily intelligence briefing.

2 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief.

3 p.m.: Biden will hold a virtual event “announcing progress on securing critical mineral supply chains, powering clean energy manufacturing, and creating good-paying jobs.”

→ A pretty interesting ad out of Arizona. Kari Lake, who former President Donald Trump endorsed for governor of Arizona, says “if you’re watching this ad right now, you’re in the middle of watching a fake news program” because it is not covering Trump’s claims that the 2020 election has been stolen. This ad is running in Phoenix and Tucson. Thanks to AdImpact for this one. 

D.C. HAPPENINGS

The Radio and Television Correspondents Association will host its annual dinner at The Anthem March 16, and comedian Rachel Feinstein will host. This is the first large-scale event of this nature since Covid began. Jan. 6 first responders are expected to attend. The RTCA has partnered with Lucira Health to provide Covid tests to attendees. Buy tickets here.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Wooing Allies, Publicizing Putin’s Plans: Inside Biden’s Race to Prevent War,” by Mike Shear, Julian Barnes and Eric Schmitt

→ "Oil prices jump, nearing $100 a barrel, as Ukraine developments roil energy markets," by Kevin Granville

→ “Putin Calls Ukrainian Statehood a Fiction. History Suggests Otherwise,” by Michael Schwirtz in Odessa, Ukraine, Maria Varenikova in Kyiv and Rick Gladstone in New York

WaPo

→ “White House wrestles with whether Russia has ‘invaded’ Ukraine,” by Ashley Parker

WSJ

→ “In Eastern Ukraine, Life Under Shelling by Russian-Backed Forces Becomes Untenable for Many,” by Thomas Grove in Maryinka, Ukraine

AP

→ “Russia flexes military for Ukraine move; West to respond,” by Vladimir Isachenkov and Yuras Karmanau in Moscow

L.A. Times

→ “Rep. Karen Bass’ L.A. mayor campaign manager departs,” by Julia Wick

Politico

→ “After an FBI raid, ‘King of Laredo’ runs on his laurels,” by Sarah Ferris in Laredo, Texas

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