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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Happy Tuesday, happy March and welcome to State of the Union day. As is normal practice, President Joe Biden is having an off-the-record gathering with network news anchors today. It’s also primary day in Texas.

The State of the Union address begins tonight at 9 p.m. Security will be extraordinarily tight, masks will be optional, guests are prohibited, and for the first time since the pandemic started, there are no limits on which lawmakers can attend – provided they have a negative Covid test. Lawmakers will still be spaced out during the address, with a seat between each of them.

We were checking in with members and senators yesterday to see what they’re expecting from Biden, and the same theme emerged in discussions with several House Democrats, in particular. 

These Democrats feel the party has no momentum or specific direction right now. And they’re looking for something from the top to help them. 

Biden is making the trip to Capitol Hill burdened with dismal approval ratings, and that’s hurting Democrats everywhere. The president’s poll numbers continue to slide. In fact, there’s no sign they’ve hit bottom yet or where that may be. We’re still stunned by this statistic from the most recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll – more than half of respondents (51%) believed the United States was in a recession or depression. This comes as GDP grew by 5.7% last year, more than 6 million jobs were added and unemployment is only at 4%.

Faced with this reality, many rank-and-file Democrats feel as if they’re treading water with little or no ability to turn things around before November.

Yes, Biden has made a historic Supreme Court nomination in Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first Black woman ever tapped to be on the high court. Yes, the Biden administration has found its footing during a foreign policy disaster – the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have badly overreached in the opening chapter of his campaign to crush Ukraine, and Biden has assembled a global coalition to obliterate and isolate the Russian economy. This will cause huge problems for Putin, and the U.S. efforts – coupled with international outrage over the Russian invasion – are helping recalibrate the internal geopolitical landscape in Biden’s favor. 

But will that be enough to get Biden out of his rut back home? 

Democrats don’t appear to be driving toward any big legislative victory that could dramatically alter the political environment, which looks bleak for the party based on history and polls. Biden will talk about the remnants of the Build Back Better Act tonight, but it’s unclear if anything from the centerpiece of Biden’s domestic agenda will ever pass.The prospects seem grim, especially if Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) continues to fear inflation more than he fears the wrath of progressives. 

The Senate is moving toward passage of a U.S. Postal Service reform bill this week, which is an important piece of legislation. Congress will then turn to the FY 2022 omnibus. That legislation will include billions of dollars in badly needed military and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine. 

Yet neither one of those is a game changer for Democrats. Neither is a major technology bill to help the United States compete with China on advanced research and manufacturing, especially on semiconductor chips, another priority for party leaders. Again, it’s a very important bill that could bring big benefits to the U.S. economy in the long run. But it’s not a political game changer.

The Covid pandemic appears to be receding – finally – and this could be the biggest boost for Biden and Democrats. Yet will it happen fast enough to make much of a difference? And will Democrats be able to overcome anger toward the federal government’s response to the pandemic, especially over masks, vaccine mandates and school closures? We don’t see any sign of that.

We’ll hear a lot about Ukraine tonight, the growing U.S. economy, cutting the deficit and other items Biden says he wants to push toward. Will the rest of the country hear it too? And, most importantly, will Congress?

The Coverage:

→ NYT: “In State of the Union, Biden Will Focus on Economy and Global Response to Russia,” by Michael D. Shear

→ WaPo: “Biden wanted to use the State of the Union for his agenda. Then Russia started a land war.” by Annie Linskey and Tyler Pager

→ AP: “Biden steps to State of the Union lectern at fraught moment,” by Zeke Miller and Colleen Long

→ Bloomberg: ​​”One Year, 14 Metrics: The State of Biden’s Presidency”

Follow us on Instagram today because Christian Hall and Max Cohen will take you behind the scenes of the Capitol on this State of the Union day.

A note: Three Republicans voted against an anti-lynching bill last night. Reps. Andrew Clyde (Ga.), Tom Massie (Ky.) and Chip Roy (Texas) all voted no last night. The final margin on the “Emmett Till Antilynching Act” sponsored by Rep. Bobby Rush (D-Ill.) was 422-3.

What the Hill thinks about Biden’s domestic agenda ahead of SOTU

We have some timely numbers in the first edition of The Canvass Capitol Hill 2022 about how senior aides view the Build Back Better Act ahead of President Joe Biden’s State of the Union tonight.

As you probably know, The Canvass is our anonymous survey of senior Capitol Hill aides. We’re expanding this effort to K Street and we’re very excited about that.

On BBB:

→ 84% of senior Democratic aides believe the BBB as passed by the House is dead. This is, of course, a recognition of reality, since Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is fully against that piece of legislation. 

→ We asked aides if the member of Congress they work for supports breaking the BBB up. The aides told us that most Democratic members believe that breaking up the massive climate and social spending legislation into “chunks” is the best path forward. 89% of Democrats said they should pass whatever they can before midterms. Just 9% said that Congress should continue to try to pass BBB as a whole. This is a massive setback for progressives in the House, who wanted the entirety of the BBB pushed through Congress. 

→ We asked staffers which of the BBB provisions were most likely to be repackaged and passed. 49% said expanding the current Child Tax credit, 47% said solar and wind energy tax credits and 45% said making ACA subsidies permanent.

→ Senior Democratic staffers overwhelmingly blame Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) for the failure of BBB (89%). Interesting to note that only 49% of staffers blame Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) for the failure of BBB.

→ Despite the West Virginian’s much-maligned quip that he negotiates in “good faith,” a majority of Democratic staffers, 56%, don’t believe that Manchin or Sinema negotiated in good faith on BBB.

Become a premium member today and get more analysis throughout the week on the Canvass and all the raw data available to you on the Punchbowl News website.

THE PUNCH LIST

In case you missed it, we shared The Punch List in our Sunday special edition breaking down tonight’s State of the Union address. If you’re watching at home – or even if you’re at work – use our handy Punch List to mark off how many phrases President Joe Biden uses and the topics he hits during his first State of the Union. Share how many he gets to on Twitter and Instagram. Print it out here.

WASHINGTON x THE WORLD

Spending bill still on track for next week as Ukraine seeks more weapons

House and Senate appropriators are still on track to introduce and pass a huge omnibus FY 2022 spending bill next week, with the March 11 funding deadline fast approaching.

That package is expected to include billions of dollars in humanitarian and military aid for Ukraine, perhaps as much as $10 billion, according to lawmakers.

Oksana Markarova, Ukraine’s ambassador to the United States, met with senators last night, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Markarova asked for more U.S. weapons to be sent to Ukraine immediately, including Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, said senators who attended the session.

And lawmakers in both the House and Senate were told of the Ukrainian weapons shortage during a later classified briefing by top administration officials. The briefers included Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Joint Chiefs Chair Mark Milley and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, among others.

“It’s no secret that they need more help,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) told reporters. “They’ve got the weapons they need right now, but they’re going to run out soon. We’ve got to get a supplemental passed quickly.”

If the Ukraine aid package is included in the omnibus – as we expect it to be – this could be an incentive for more lawmakers to vote for the huge spending bill. Some Republicans are pressing for the Ukraine aid to move separately for just this reason – they don’t want to vote for the omnibus package. Yet Democrats are showing no signs of splitting the two up right now.

Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians are seeking to leave the country via Poland and other NATO allies as Russia – facing unexpectedly stiff Ukrainian opposition – steps up its artillery and air attacks. Russian forces are attempting to encircle the capital, Kyiv, as well as Kharkiv, the country’s second-largest city.

Furthermore, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is now saying that the United States and NATO must not build bases in former Soviet nations, according to Reuters, quoting Russian state media.

→ Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has cut a new ad for Eric Schmitt, the attorney general of Missouri who is running for the GOP nomination for the open Senate seat there. As Burgess Everett of Politico has noted, Cruz endorsed Schmitt while Missouri GOP Sen. Josh Hawley has endorsed Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-Mo.)

DOWNTOWN DOWNLOAD

→ Tony Podesta, the once high-flying lobbyist who founded the Podesta Group, has signed a contract to lobby on behalf of Quantum Materials Corp. He will lobby on “Issues related to federal pharmaceutical evaluation processes and contracting issues.” Podesta also represents Huawei, the Chinese technology company,  and Protos Energy SSC, which is based in Bulgaria.

FRONTS

MOMENTS

9:50 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing. 

10:45 a.m.: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and the House GOP leadership will talk about the State of the Union.

11 a.m.: House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer will host a virtual pen and pad.

2 p.m.: Senate leadership will talk after the party lunches.

9 p.m.: Biden will give his State of the Union address. 

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Bracing for Biden and Protests, Officials Fortify the Capitol,” by Luke Broadwater, Emily Cochrane and Zolan Kanno-Youngs

→ News Analysis: “After a Fumbled Start, Russian Forces Hit Harder in Ukraine,” by Steven Erlanger in Brussels

→ “European Sanctions Could Strand Leased Planes in Russia,” by Melissa Eddy in Berlin

WaPo

→ “In a Kyiv under siege, neighbors dig trenches and raise barriers to brace for Russian assault,” by Sudarsan Raghavan, Siobhán O’Grady, Whitney Shefte and Kostiantyn Khudov in Kyiv

→ “In just 72 hours, Europe overhauled its entire post-Cold War relationship with Russia,” by Michael Birnbaum, Missy Ryan and Souad Mekhennet

→ “The dire predictions about a Russian cyber onslaught haven’t come true in Ukraine. At least not yet,” by Joseph Menn and Craig Timberg

WSJ

→ “Blockade on Russia Central Bank Neutralizes Defense Against Sanctions, U.S. Says,” by Ian Talley

→ “U.S. Positioned to Withstand Economic Shock From Ukraine Crisis,” by Jon Hilsenrath

→ “U.S. Says Russian U.N. Diplomats Are Spies and Orders Them Out,” by Aruna Viswanatha and William Mauldin

AP

→ “Russia pummels Ukraine’s No. 2 city and convoy nears Kyiv,” by Yuras Karmanau, Jim Heintz, Vladimir Isachenkov and Dasha Litvinova

→ “Russia eyes sanctions workarounds in energy, gold, crypto,” by Fatima Hussein

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images