View in web browser

PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN

THE TOP

The details of President Joe Biden’s massive “American Jobs Plan” just got off embargo at 5 a.m. We’ll get to our breakdown of the politics in a minute. 

But first, we wanted to give you some behind-the-scenes details about how this may go down.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) typically holds her cards close to her vest when it comes to legislating. But during a call with the Democratic Caucus Monday, Pelosi — in her last term as speaker after nearly two decades atop the party — laid out just how ambitious she’s feeling and how important this proposal is for her members.

Pelosi said she wants the House to pass the $2.5-trillion package by July 4. She acknowledged the target could slip until later in the month, but her goal is July 4.

Let us repeat that: Pelosi wants to pass a $2.5 trillion infrastructure package in the next 90-odd days. There are just six weeks in session between now and the July 4 recess, so the House has its work cut out for it.

And this isn’t like the “American Rescue Plan,” where the House had essentially passed a version of the legislation before (the HEROES Act). Much of this is brand new and must be drafted from scratch. That takes time.

OK, let’s run down the legislative politics here:

→ This Biden package is roughly $2.5 trillion over eight years, with new taxes that cover the cost in 15 years. The White House is positioning this as temporary spending that’s being paid for by permanent tax increases. One of the difficult elements here for Democrats is the taxes come over 15 years, and the spending over eight. So if a new president comes into office and Congress repeals the taxes, the pay for is gone. 

→ Remember the saying: The White House proposes and Congress disposes? This is just the White House’s infrastructure plan. And these are only broad details. Congress is going to have its own thoughts here. Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.), the chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, is putting a bill together in the next month or so.

→ This bill will almost certainly be done under reconciliation. That’s the only conceivable way this gets through Congress in the prescribed timeline. That explains why Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is appealing to the parliamentarian to allow Democrats to do more than one reconciliation bill based on the FY 2021 budget resolution. Democrats may need more than one reconciliation bill to do this. 

→ In the House, Pelosi can only count on Democratic votes. So, a small group of Democrats essentially has veto power over this bill. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) says the package is far too small. Four northeastern Democrats — Reps. Bill Pascrell, Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey and Tom Suozzi of New York — say they won’t vote for any changes to the tax code if Congress doesn’t repeal the SALT caps. 

This would seem problematic for House Democratic leaders. We’ll hold off on judgement on AOC. Somehow moderate Democrats always, always fold to Pelosi without fail. Bet on it happening again. They’ll fold. If they don’t, we’ll eat our shoe or something.

→ In the Senate, the margin is even tighter. Enter Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who isn’t afraid to buck his party or leadership. Or Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), who will do the same. There’s money for mine redemption in the package, which seems like a play for Manchin’s vote.

→ The White House is currently telling lawmakers that it will actually make an attempt at bipartisanship. Administration officials will invite Republicans and business groups to the White House in a bid for GOP support. But the administration isn’t afraid to move ahead without Republicans. 

Color us extraordinarily skeptical here that any Republicans will support this effort. The Biden plan raises the corporate tax from 21% to 28%. Republicans want nothing more than to run on Democrats hiking taxes after a pandemic. The White House believes that making corporations pay their fair share is popular. Those are two divergent points of view that come into serious conflict now.

→ The White House is planning another presidential speech the next few weeks on the second tranche of the Biden plan — the social welfare element. We were told to expect the speech the week of April 12 or April 19, before the climate summit.

We spent much of yesterday afternoon and last night on the phone with White House officials and House Democratic lawmakers. We believe, generally speaking, there are two pathways to governing with a president of your own party in the White House: Try mightily to preserve your majority, or use your majority for big change. It’s clear Democrats here are doing the latter — the White House is positioning this as a plan so big it rivals the “Space Race” of the 1960s. It’s a big gamble, no question about it. But many Democrats feel they have no other choice.

Think of the legislative timeline like this: The House’s July 4 goal means the Senate won’t take up the infrastructure-only portion of the Biden package until the middle of July at the absolute earliest. That’s if the House makes Pelosi’s goal. 

And remember: Government funding comes up at the end of September. As does the debt limit.

Our bet is that this entire package — both pieces — gets lumped together into one big reconciliation bill for final passage. At that point, it becomes really hard for Democrats to vote against. It’s too big to fail. 

This is the legislative story of the next four to six months. 

Nice swan song for Pelosi, huh?

BRES AND JAKE ON THE LEGISLATIVE TIMELINE

Also: Administration officials will brief leadership and additional committee staff this morning at 9:30 a.m.

DIG IN

The details of the Biden infrastructure plan

Take a peek at the White House’s infrastructure talking points. Remember: This is the White House’s plan. It is not representative of precisely what Congress will do.

The highlights include: 

→ $621 billion for transportation, with a huge chunk of that ($174 billion) going to spurring the electric-vehicle market.

→ $111 billion for safer drinking water.

→ $100 billion for high-speed broadband.

→ $100 billion to upgrade the U.S. power infrastructure.

→ $213 billion to “produce, preserve, and retrofit more than two million affordable and sustainable places to live."

→ $137 billion for public schools, community colleges and child-care facilities.

→  $100 billion for workforce development.

→  $400 billion for “expanding access to quality, affordable home- or community-based care for aging relatives and people with disabilities.”

There are some major changes to the corporate tax code as part of Biden’s “Made In America Tax Plan” that will be — by far — the most contentious part of the proposal. Republicans will look to exploit these proposed tax increases by going after vulnerable Democrats, and K Street will have a field day lobbying on it. You can already see the attack line from Ways and Means Republicans this morning: “What good is infrastructure when people have no jobs?”

→ Biden is calling for an increase in the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, plus a “global minimum tax.”

→  Biden’s plan “will increase the minimum tax on U.S. corporations to 21 percent and calculate it on a country-by-country basis so it hits profits in tax havens. 

→ “Corporate inversions” to tax havens will also be made more difficult. 

→ Tax breaks and subsidies for the fossil fuel industry will end. 

→ Biden is also promising stepped-up IRS enforcement on corporations.

A senior administration official said that this Biden plan will create “millions and millions” of jobs. But the official said there will be more to come on this later.

The coverage: 

→ NYT: “If his full set of proposals became law, they would mark a new era of ambitious federal spending to address longstanding social and economic problems. Their odds of passing Congress have risen in the midst of a pandemic in which lawmakers have approved record amounts of government spending to rescue the economy from recession.”

→ NYT’s Tom Friedman: “The Biden Boom: The president has a chance to supercharge the economy.”

→ Bloomberg: ”Biden Plans $2.25 Trillion Investment Plan to Rival Space Race”

GUN SCOOP

House Dems call on Biden to regulate gun used in Boulder shooting

More than 100 House Democrats are calling on President Joe Biden to impose new licensing requirements on the type of gun used to kill 10 people in Boulder, Colo., last week, according to a letter obtained by Punchbowl News.

The alleged Boulder shooter had a pistol-version of the AR-15, an assault weapon that’s the most popular rifle in America. The AR-556 pistol uses the same ammunition and operates like an AR-15, but it’s shorter and more easily concealable. And as long as the barrel of the weapon is 16 inches or longer, under federal law, it’s still considered a pistol — despite being way more lethal than a regular pistol. These guns are also relatively easy to obtain; all a buyer has to do is pass a background check. 

In a letter spearheaded by Reps. Mike Thompson (D-Calif.) and Joe Neguse (D-Colo.), whose district includes Boulder, the House Democrats are calling on Biden to extend the 1934 National Firearms Act to cover these types of guns.  

The licensing requirements under the NFA are much tighter than those required to purchase an ordinary gun. In addition to a background check, an applicant must be fingerprinted, provide a photo, pay a $200 fee, and register the weapon with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF). Completing a purchase under the NFA can sometimes take weeks or even months. In comparison, the vast majority of background checks for non-NFA guns are done in a few minutes.

“The House Gun Violence Prevention Task Force calls on you to take strong executive action to address serious inequities in the implementation of the National Firearms Act which is the federal law regulating the manufacture, transfer, and possession of certain classes of firearms,” the Democrats said in their letter to Biden. “For too long, gun manufacturers in order to circumvent the National Firearms Act have designed and marketed concealable AR-15 style firearms which fire rifle rounds.”

The Democrats added: “Concealable assault-style firearms that fire rifle rounds pose an unreasonable threat to our communities and should be fully regulated under the National Firearms Act consistent with the intent and history of the law. The recent tragedy in Boulder, Colorado, where 10 people including a police officer were killed is one in a string of deadly incidents involving this style of weapon. On February 6, 2019, Milwaukee Officer Matthew Rittner was killed by an AK-47 style concealable weapon while trying to execute a search warrant. Later that year on August 4, 2019, a concealable .223 caliber AR-15 style firearm was used to kill 9 people and injure 17 others in Dayton, Ohio in less than 1 minute.”

The lawmakers also noted that “the concealability and ability to use ammunition capable of penetrating body armor make these firearms especially dangerous on our streets and for law enforcement personnel.”

Following the recent mass shootings in Boulder and Atlanta, as well as a surge in gun violence nationally over the last year, there’s renewed debate in the Senate over gun control. The House has already passed a broad background checks bill authored by Thompson. However, there’s no chance that legislation will pass the Senate as is. Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.) is leading efforts to find a compromise, but there seems only a limited appetite among Republicans for a gun bill.

The White House is considering several gun-related executive actions, including requiring background checks for kits to make so-called “ghost guns.” 

Yet a move like that proposed by Thompson, Neguse and the other House Democrats could lead to a legal challenge from gun manufacturers and gun-rights groups, who would argue that Biden is exceeding his authority under NFA. Whether the White House will risk that here is unclear, though the president will get support from Hill Democrats if he does.

MOMENTS

10:15 a.m.: President Joe Biden and VP Kamala Harris will receive their intelligence briefing.

11 a.m.: The Covid team will brief reporters.

1:30 p.m.: Harris will hold a round table with faith leaders on the vaccine.

1:40 p.m.: Biden will leave the White House for Andrews, where he’ll fly to Pittsburgh. He’s slated to arrive in Pittsburgh by 3 p.m. Katrine Jean-Pierre will brief aboard Air Force One. 

4 p.m.: Biden will give his speech about the American Jobs Plan.

6:15 p.m.: Biden will leave Pittsburgh for D.C., and will arrive at the White House by 7:30 p.m.

Also: First Lady Jill Biden will be in California. She will attend a “Day of Action” with labor leaders and Gov. Gavin Newsom and his wife Jennifer Siebel Newsom.

CLIP FILE

NYT: “Democrats Splinter Over Strategy for Pushing Through Voting Rights Bill,” by Nick Fandos and Michael Wines

“Bloomberg Employees Get Access to Hospital’s Vaccine Slots,” by Katie Robertson

WaPo: “Republicans seek to make vaccine passports the next battle in the pandemic culture wars,” by Annie Linskey, Dan Diamond and Tyler Pager

“WHO report leaves unsettled ‘lab-leak’ theory on origins of covid pandemic,” by Shane Harris, Emily Rauhala, Ben Guarino and Chris Mooney

WSJ: “U.S. Home Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in 15 Years,” by Nicole Friedman

“Kerry headed to India, U.A.E. for Climate Talks,” by Timothy Puko and Jessica Donati

WSJ Editorial Board: “Schumer’s New Filibuster Evasion Plan”: “Prior Congresses were well aware that majorities might hijack budget reconciliation to evade the filibuster, which is why there are limits on how often it can be used, and why the Byrd Rule limits inclusion to items germane to the budget. Democrats want to destroy both limitations. It’s a naked attempt to ignore the clear history and intent of the law to jam their agenda through the Senate with the narrowest of majorities. Abiding by political norms was so last Presidency.”

Politico: “Russia suspected of stealing thousands of State Department emails,” by Betsy Woodruff Swan and Natasha Bertrand

PROBLEMS FOR MATT GAETZ

DOJ probing whether Gaetz had an improper relationship with teen girl

Start by reading this NYT story by Mike Schmidt, Katie Benner and Nick Fandos: “Matt Gaetz Is Said to Face Justice Dept. Inquiry Over Sex With an Underage Girl”:

Investigators are examining whether Mr. Gaetz violated federal sex trafficking laws, the people said. A variety of federal statutes make it illegal to induce someone under 18 to travel over state lines to engage in sex in exchange for money or something of value. The Justice Department regularly prosecutes such cases, and offenders often receive severe sentences.

It was not clear how Mr. Gaetz met the girl, believed to be 17 at the time of encounters about two years ago that investigators are scrutinizing, according to two of the people. … 

“Mr. Gaetz said in an interview that his lawyers had been in touch with the Justice Department and that they were told he was the subject, not the target, of an investigation. “I only know that it has to do with women,” Mr. Gaetz said. “I have a suspicion that someone is trying to recategorize my generosity to ex-girlfriends as something more untoward.”

Then read this Axios story by Jonathan Swan: 

"The allegations against me are as searing as they are false," Gaetz said in a 13-minute phone interview with Axios. "I believe that there are people at the Department of Justice who are trying to criminalize my sexual conduct, you know when I was a single guy." … 

"The allegations of sexual misconduct against me are false," Gaetz told Axios. "They are rooted in an extortion effort against my family for $25 million … in exchange for making this case go away." … 

Asked what the charges could relate to, Gaetz said: "I have definitely, in my single days, provided for women I’ve dated. You know, I’ve paid for flights, for hotel rooms. I’ve been, you know, generous as a partner. I think someone is trying to make that look criminal when it is not."

We did a good deal of reporting about Gaetz in our time at Politico. We reported that he was renting an office from a friend and donor in an arrangement that the donor said was below market value. We did a story about him paying a speechwriter who was fired from the White House for attending a white supremacist conference improperly. We also reported that he had built a TV studio in his father’s garage in Florida, and taxpayers were paying for a portion of it.

Please watch this Gaetz interview with Tucker Carlson from Fox News last night. It’s something.

On Tuesday night, as the story unfolded, House GOP leaders took a wait-and-see attitude. Gaetz isn’t very popular with his fellow Republicans, so don’t look for them to walk too far out on a limb for him. And they don’t know what else is out there. Word that a Gaetz-related story was coming only began to circulate in the last few days, and no one knew what to expect. Now no one is sure what’s next.

The story also broke amid a fresh round of rumors about Gaetz’s possible retirement. But House GOP leaders aren’t sweating Gaetz’s potential exit either, as his northwestern Florida district is R +22. It will stay red no matter what.

We’ll also have to see what former President Donald Trump says about his young ally’s legal problems too.

Enjoying Punchbowl News AM?

Subscribe 10 friends with your unique link (below) and get a Punchbowl News hat!

Your referral link is: 

You can see all the rewards in here!

Or share via

You currently have: 0 referrals

Editorial photos provided by Getty Images