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BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN

THE TOP

Happening this morning: Join us for our first Punchbowl News virtual pop up conversation with Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) at 9 a.m. Watch here.

Personalities drive politics and policy, and nowhere is that more evident than during the quest to pass a major piece of legislation. Just think back to 2010 when former Michigan Democratic Rep. Bart Stupak — who held up Obamacare’s passage because of abortion concerns — briefly became a household name. Or recall any legislation that involved Donald Trump. 

So we’re going to start charting power when it comes to the massive infrastructure package that President Joe Biden is trying to pass. Why? Because it will help you understand what’s at stake, what drives people and who to watch when the House gets to work next on the American Jobs Plan. Remember: House Democratic leaders want to get this done by July 4.

→ Leadership: This one is as easy as pie. Nancy Pelosi will be driving this train, but she faces a very delicate task here. Pelosi will have a three or four-seat majority, depending on when the American Jobs Plan gets to the floor. She and her top lieutenants have a ton of decisions to make. How will the package be structured? Is there more than one reconciliation bill? If so, how does she divvy them up? What order is the legislation voted on? All of these tactical decisions will help guide Pelosi as she tries to steer this legislation through the House.

→ Who you can mostly ignore: Republicans. At least for the moment. We included in the evening edition the other day a fundraising invitation that urged people to donate to hear Republicans talk about infrastructure. Here’s a piece of advice: Don’t spend money to hear them talk about it at the moment. They aren’t going to vote for it, and won’t have much insight into what’s going on. We’ll let you know if this changes. 

The Democrats you should watch: This much is obvious, but committee chairs are key. Watch Ways and Means Chair Richie Neal of Massachusetts, Energy and Commerce Chair Frank Pallone of New Jersey and Transportation and Infrastructure Chair Peter DeFazio of Oregon. They’re going to take Pelosi’s cues, but Pelosi will take their advice too. In many ways, they are Pelosi’s front-line leaders or sergeants. They hear from the membership directly..

→ Ways and Means Dems: Reps. Ron Kind of Wisconsin, Bill Pascrell of New Jersey and Tom Suozzi of New York all are worth keeping an eye on. Kind has long been a stalwart of the tax-writing panel, but can he vote for a tax increase when he’s under increasing pressure in his LaCrosse-Eau Claire area district in the western part of the state?  Pascrell and Suozzi are both loyal foot soldiers in the Pelosi army who want something this time — the SALT tax caps lifted.

→ New Jersey Rep. Josh Gottheimer: The New Jersey Democrat often finds himself — or puts himself — in the middle of whatever is happening. He’s always looking for a problem to solve — get it? Gottheimer is a co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus along with Rep. Tom Reed (R-N.Y.). Reed has been crushed by a sex scandal, and Republicans won’t vote for this bill, so it’s up to Gottheimer to get some headlines. Gottheimer told Axios that he has concerns about raising taxes in the midst of a pandemic, although part of that is his concern over SALT. 

→ AOC and Jayapal: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) is a political star, so of course we’d watch what she does on any vote. AOC has already criticized the American Jobs Plan as “not nearly enough.” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, called it a “welcome first step,” but added “ more must be done to improve on this initial framework to meet the challenges we face.” The White House has yet to drop the second part of the package — which Democrats are calling the American Family Plan — so we’ll wait to see how progressives react to whatever new social welfare initiatives Biden unveils.

→ The New “Oil Patch”: Reps. Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred are both Democrats who won in Texas, so they are “majority makers.” They represent the new look of Texas Democrats — Fletcher from the well-heeled River Oaks area in Houston, and Allred, who represents many of the upscale neighborhoods in Dallas. Fletcher opposed Biden’s call for a moratorium on new oil and gas drilling on federal lands, so ending tax subsidies to the industry could be a challenging vote. Allred got the U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsement last cycle in a tough race. The business group is already opposed to this Democratic plan. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) also could be part of this clique. Look for these Democrats to try to balance the traditional leanings of Texas with the newfound political leanings of their districts.

→ Jared Golden, Ed Case and Kurt Schroeder: These three are often the toughest votes for Pelosi, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) to get. Golden (Maine) and Schrader (Ore.) voted against the American Rescue Plan when the House initially considered it, although Schrader voted for the package after it was amended by the Senate. Golden and Case (Hawaii) voted against the budget resolution that allowed Democrats to consider the American Rescue Plan under reconciliation. Democrats don’t believe Golden will vote for this new Biden proposal either, so that costs Pelosi a vote.

→ Rep. Stephanie Murphy and the Blue Dogs: Murphy, a Florida Democrat, is “seriously considering” challenging incumbent GOP Sen. Marco Rubio in 2022. Rubio will vote against this Biden proposal, that much is clear. Murphy hasn’t taken a position on it yet, per her office. Case and Murphy are two of the three co-chairs of the Blue Dog Coalition, while Golden, Schrader and Gottheimer are all members.

→ The Biden administration: We’re most fascinated here by Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. He’s moving into a big-time role here of working a caucus he hardly knows and an institution he’s only vaguely familiar with. Buttigieg also has a lot at stake here. Public office is clearly in his future, so we will be watching him closely

WHAT’S ON MCCARTHY’S MIND?

Kevin McCarthy pens a letter on "terrorists" at the border 

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy sent FBI Director Chris Wray and CIA Director Bill Burns a letter, requesting a classified briefing “regarding certain individuals apprehended by the U.S. Border Patrol.” McCarthy has been saying that individuals on the FBI’s terrorism watch list have been apprehended at the U.S.-Mexico border — and he’s been accused of fear mongering. In fact, CBP announced that they apprehended two Yemeni nationals on that list, so McCarthy is trying to push this issue back to the top of the agenda when Congress returns next week. Check the letter out here.

EYE ON THE POWER

Is Elizabeth MacDonogh the third-most powerful Democrat in D.C.?

Check out this line from Emily Cochrane and Jim Tankersley’s NYT story about the Senate parliamentarian’s ruling on reconciliation:

The details of the ruling have not been made public, and [Senate Majority Leader Chuck] Schumer and top Democratic staff members will most likely have to return to [Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth] MacDonough with additional questions about how to proceed.

So MacDonough was able to quash minimum wage in the last reconciliation bill, and now she holds the keys to this package — and has outsized sway over President Joe Biden’s agenda.

JAN. 6 UPDATE

National security leaders call for bipartisan Jan. 6 commission

One-hundred-and-forty senior former lawmakers and national security officials have penned a letter asking for a bipartisan commission to investigate the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Here’s the letter.

Commissions — properly empowered, resourced, and led — can establish a full picture of events and an analysis of their causes, from which nonpartisan recommendations can authoritatively flow. With dedicated time, resources, and expert staffing, they can also exclusively focus on the matter at hand over an appropriate time horizon. Given the gravity of January 6th as a national security matter — the violent disruption to the transition of power and the continuing threat of future attacks — a national commission examining the lead up to the January 6th assault, and the attendant security lapses, is not only appropriate, but a critical component of the national response.

Of course, creation of the commission has been stalled due to partisan disagreements between Republicans and Democrats on the scope of the probe. Republicans want the panel to investigate all political violence, and Speaker Nancy Pelosi wants it to probe the Capitol attack. 

Signatories of this letter include: Thad Allen, the former commandant of the Coast Guard; Michael Chertoff, former DHS secretary; James Clapper, former DNI; William Cohen, former secretary of Defense; former Sens. John Danforth, Tom Daschle and Gary Hart; former Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel; and former DHS Secretary Tom Ridge.

As of now, the idea of a commission seems to be going nowhere. We’ll see what happens when Congress returns next week.

FILIBUSTER UPDATE

Feinstein aide dishes on 50-vote threshold for voting bill

L.A. Times’ Jen Haberkorn:

A senior staffer to Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) signaled Tuesday that the senator would support circumventing the long-standing filibuster rule to enact a voting rights bill with only 50 votes in the Senate.

Feinstein “believes that the leadership of the Senate will come up with a path that allows this bill to go forward with 50 Democratic votes,” her state director Jim Lazarus told a San Francisco group from the liberal activist group Indivisible, according to a video of his comments. She “will make this the No. 1 bill that has to get through over the next month or two.”

This is a big statement for Feinstein to make — and even bigger to make through an aide. Feinstein, 87, had said in the past she was hesitant about blowing up the filibuster. Now the California Democrat is saying she may do it for H.R. 1-S 1 or something of that nature. There’s a lot of outs here, however.

Advocates for dumping the filibuster believe they have momentum on their side in convincing all Democrats to back changes to the longstanding Senate tradition. Yet Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) are opposed to eliminating the 60-vote threshold, and other moderates have raised concerns as well. Just read WSJ’s Eliza Collins interview with Sinema where she defends the filibuster. Schumer has kept all his options open on this issue, but he won’t — and can’t — move forward without unanimous support in his caucus.

MOMENTS

9:50 a.m.: President Joe Biden and VP Kamala Harris will receive their daily intelligence briefing.

10:30 a.m.: The Covid task force will brief reporters.

12:15 p.m.: Jen Psaki and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo will brief reporters.

1:45 p.m.: Biden will speak about the American Jobs Plan from the White House.

CLIP FILE

NYT: “Likely Legal, ‘Vaccine Passports’ Emerge as the Next Coronavirus Divide,” by Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Adam Liptak

“Capitol Rioters Face the Consequences of Their Selfie Sabotage,” by Elizabeth Williamson

“Matt Gaetz, Loyal for Years to Trump, Is Said to Have Sought a Blanket Pardon,” by Mike Schmidt, Maggie Haberman and Nick Fandos

WaPo: “Justice Breyer says expanding the Supreme Court could erode trust,” by Robert Barnes

“Biden administration to launch massive funeral assistance program for covid victims,” by Mary Jordan and Kevin Sullivan

“Republicans leverage attention on anti-Asian hate incidents in bid to overturn affirmative action,” by David Nakumara

WSJ: “Calls Grow to Abandon Regulations Eased Under Covid (Hello, Cocktails to Go),” by Aaron Zitner and Julie Bykowicz

AP: “Biden makes all adults eligible for a vaccine on April 19,” by Darlene Superville and Alexandra Jaffe

Politico: “Senior Trump and Biden officials knew for months about problems at vaccine plant,” by Erin Banco and Sarah Owermohle

FUN NUGGET

Former Illinois Rep. John Shimkus, a longtime Republican member of the House, gave former Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski of Illinois $1,000 to help him retire his campaign debt. Shimkus also spent $2,430 to buy his congressional chair and desk from the government, according to a recently filed campaign finance report.

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images