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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN

THE TOP

Good news and bad news. 

The good news: Today is Friday, and the Masters is on. The not-so-good news for all of you who appreciate a somewhat quiet D.C.: Congress returns Monday from its two-week break to tackle massive fights on guns, taxes, infrastructure and immigration.

We assume that you don’t sit around all day rapping with your co-workers about what this all means for the congressional leadership. We do, which is why you’re here, and we appreciate that.

→ Chuck Schumer: The Senate majority leader had a good run in the opening quarter of 2021 despite some trying moments. Senate Democrats won the majority, Schumer successfully navigated the second impeachment trial of Donald Trump, he got all of President Joe Biden’s Cabinet secretaries confirmed and Democrats passed the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan in the face of solid Republican opposition.

And now come even more challenges. Schumer must figure out how to push Biden’s $4 trillion American Jobs Plan through a 50-50 Senate where he’s again unlikely to get a single GOP vote. Gun bills face a Republican filibuster, and Biden’s nominee to run the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives — David Chipman — will face massive resistance from gun rights groups. Progressives want Schumer to dump the filibuster now, but he doesn’t have the votes to do that. Schumer sought clearance from the Senate parliamentarian to do another budget reconciliation bill using the FY 2021 budget resolution, a request that was apparently approved, but now he’s facing opposition from Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) over this. His drive for a China-related legislative package to boost the semiconductor industry and high-tech manufacturing is hitting some roadblocks. And oh yeah, Schumer still has his own reelection campaign in 2022. 

So it’s fair to say Chuck “Big and Bold” Schumer faces a very difficult spring in the Senate. But he just finished a tour of New York State where he highlighted the billions of dollars in federal aid he helped steer back home, so that part of being majority leader is going very well.

→ Nancy Pelosi: Pelosi’s big problem at the moment is votes. More specifically: can she get some more of them, and when will that happen? The House ratio right now is 219 Democrats to 211 Republicans. The GOP will pick up another vote next week when Rep.-elect Julie Letlow (R-La.) is sworn in. For a short period of time, Pelosi’s margin will be down to just three votes. Three votes! Democrats will add another member to their ranks by the end of April, but it’s going to be months before the seats held by the late Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.) and Marcia Fudge — who stepped down to become now HUD secretary — are filled and Democrats get back up to full strength.

The House will go first in drafting, marking up and ultimately voting on Biden’s American Jobs Plan. How that will be done — through regular order or under reconciliation — has yet to be decided. Some of that decision-making will depend on what Schumer’s options are (see above.) Pelosi wants the first portion of the infrastructure package through the House by July 4, an ambitious deadline that won’t leave much room for delay or missteps. Pelosi seems confident she can do it, and it’d be dumb to bet against her.

Pelosi and her top lieutenants — House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.). — face little fires everywhere in their caucus, but nothing too serious right now. Progressives want an even bigger infrastructure package, moderates worry about the corporate tax hike. Northeastern Democrats want the SALT caps removed, and Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) may just vote against everything, If Pelosi just had a magic vote machine….

→ Mitch McConnell: McConnell is in a pretty good spot — if he can just keep his guys from retiring. GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa has to decide whether to seek another term, while Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) is taking his time on the reelection question as well. 

However, the best thing McConnell has going for him right now may be Biden and Schumer. Biden’s remarks on Wednesday about trying unsuccessfully to work with Senate GOP moderates on the American Rescue Plan spurred an angry statement from the 10 Republicans he met with at the White House on Feb. 1. And Schumer’s request to do another reconciliation bill based on the FY 2021 budget resolution could end up driving GOP moderates further toward McConnell. Maybe even some Democrats too.

→ Kevin McCarthy: The California Republican has gotten some wins lately. Democrat Rita Hart dropped her challenge to GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ ridiculously tight victory in Iowa’s 2nd District after Republicans turned it into a political fight. After McCarthy got bashed for saying terrorism suspects are trying to illegally cross the U.S.-Mexico border, two Yemeni nationals on the FBI watch list were caught trying to sneak in. And his fundraising has been very strong, which will help further boost his internal standing.

Yet what happens if Republicans get to the table with Democrats on infrastructure? What does McCarthy do then? Does he get on board and support cutting a deal? Republicans think they benefit from opposing Biden, but what happens if he can’t keep his crew together? 

McCarthy will face questions next week about the scandal surrounding Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) who is under criminal investigation by the Justice Department for having sex with a 17-year-old girl, among other allegations. So far, McCarthy has been able to duck the issue because Congress was gone, but that will end on Tuesday. 

This is the second sex scandal recently for House Republicans. Rep. Tom Reed (R-N.Y.) announced he would not run for reelection after the Washington Post reported he drunkenly grabbed a former female lobbyist in 2017. After initially denying the allegation, Reed later apologized and said he had a drinking problem and got sober.

THE BIG THREE

Guns, taxes and immigration rev up Republicans

For Republicans, it’s the holy trinity: guns, taxes and immigation. And after this week, all three issues are suddenly in play.

Let’s start with guns.

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) tweeted it: “They want to take your guns.” Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) said, “Joe Biden wants to take your guns away, even though he doesn’t understand how guns work.”  GOP Rep. Mike Rogers of Alabama added: “You aren’t taking the guns of law-abiding citizens or our right to bear arms, Mr. President."

These GOP lawmakers — and their comments were downright moderate compared to what some Republican governors said — all are re-using the tried and true “Democrats want to take away your guns” line. This time, it’s in response to several executive actions by President Joe Biden that don’t appear to be taking away anyone’s guns at all, at least not anytime soon.

Biden, however, did give Republicans and pro gun rights organizations an opening during an event Thursday at the White House. In addition to calling on the Senate to pass a background checks bill, Biden said he wanted to see bans on assault weapons and high-capacity ammunition magazines. The president also suggested getting rid of lawsuit immunity for gun manufacturers, another big issue.

And then Biden said this: “But no amendment to the Constitution is absolute … From the very beginning [of the country], you couldn’t own any weapon you wanted to own. From the very beginning the Second Amendment existed, certain people weren’t allowed to have weapons. So the idea is just bizarre to suggest that some of the things we’re recommending are contrary to the Constitution."

Republicans in Congress jumped all over it. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) tried to tie it to immigration policy and the big problems with migrants trying to illegally cross the U.S.-Mexico border, especially unaccompanied children. Republicans have been yelling about a “Crisis at the border” for months now.

“Today, President Biden announced his attempts to trample over our constitutional Second Amendment rights by executive fiat,” McCarthy said in a statement. “We have a border crisis in part because this Administration decided to reverse border policies that worked, and rather than focusing on its constitutional responsibility to protect our borders, the Administration has chosen to look at ways to infringe on the constitutional rights of law-abiding citizens.”

Which leads us to our third point. Republicans have also come out hard against Biden’s proposal to raise corporate taxes to fund his massive infrastructure package, the American Jobs Plan. Tax increases are the cardinal sin for Republicans. See George H.W. Bush on this one (even though Ronald Reagan got away with it. Twice.)

“Right now having the president propose a $2 trillion tax increase as we’re working our way out a pandemic — no president has ever raised business taxes to rebuild an economy,” said Rep. Kevin Brady (Texas), top Republican on the Ways and Means Committee, during a CNBC interview the other day. “At the end of the day, we’re going to see slower hiring, less investment in the U.S., and I would predict, we will see a second way of U.S. companies inverting or moving their companies overseas.”

Now Republicans’ track record on predicting the outcome of changes in tax policy isn’t great. For instance, GOP leaders said the 2017 tax cut would pay for itself with higher government revenue, and they were off by about $2 trillion. 

But with these three issues to pound on repeatedly, Republicans have found their message for the post-Donald Trump era. Guns, taxes and immigration. Expect to hear lots more on this.

FACT CHECK

W.H. is talking bipartisanship, but will they do it?​

Here’s an interesting datapoint for you: We spoke to some Senate Republicans Thursday who are prime candidates for President Joe Biden’s appeals for bipartisanship, yet they’ve not heard a peep from the White House. Not about a meeting, not about input into the plan. Now listen, it is recess. But we thought this was notable. 

MOMENTS

9:50 a.m.: President Joe Biden and VP Kamala Harris will receive their intelligence briefing.

11 a.m.: The Covid-19 response team will brief.

12:30 p.m.: Jen Psaki and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg will brief.

2:45 p.m.: Biden and Harris will receive their economic briefing.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Republicans Take Up Trump’s Fight, Leaving Policymaking Behind,” by Jonathan Martin and Nick Fandos: “As G.O.P. leaders and donors gather for a party retreat in Palm Beach this weekend, with a side trip to Mar-a-Lago for a reception with Mr. Trump on Saturday night, the former president’s pervasive influence in Republican circles has revealed a party thoroughly animated by a defeated incumbent — a bizarre turn of events in American politics.”

→ “‘I Have No Idea Where My Daughter Is’: Migrant Parents Are Desperate for News,” by Miriam Jordan

→ “With Warning to Democrats, Manchin Points the Way for Biden’s Agenda,” by Jim Tankersley and Carl Hulse

→ “Biden’s Infrastructure Sales Force Knows Its Potholes and Bridges,” by Annie Karni and Zolan Kanno-Youngs

WaPo

→ “How Biden’s support for the All-Star Game boycott divided Democrats in Georgia,” by Ashley Parker, Sean Sullivan and Cleve R. Wootson Jr.

→ “Union appears headed to defeat in Amazon vote in Alabama,” by Jay Greene in Seattle

AP

→ “Countries worldwide hit new records for virus cases, deaths,” by Michelle R. Smith

→ “Bowing to Trump? GOP brings leaders, donors to his backyard,” by Steve Peoples and Jill Colvin

Politico

→ “Biden has a new point man on guns. He faces a steep hurdle in the Senate.” by Anita Kumar

Daily Beast

→ “Gaetz Paid Accused Sex Trafficker, Who Then Venmo’d Teen,” by Jose Pagliery and Roger Sollenberger

LAT

→ Mark Z. Barabak in San Francisco: “The California exodus is a myth. But that doesn’t stop the haters”

COMING ATTRACTIONS

It’s here! W.H. will release its skinny budget today

The long, one-week wait is over. The White House will release its discretionary budget priorities today.

A few things to keep in mind:

→ Presidential budgets are of limited value. They aren’t binding, but they do lay out the administration’s priorities.

→ There has been some internal tension about the Pentagon’s budget number. Progressives want it to be lower than the Defense Department. Tale as old as time. 

COVER OF THE DAY

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images