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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN

THE TOP

The situation in Israel is worsening. Attempts to establish a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas failed. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went on CBS’s “Face the Nation” Sunday to say it will “take some time” to restore quiet in Israel and Gaza. The casualty list continues to grow. In Gaza, 192 Palestinians have died, while 10 Israelis have also been killed. Scores of children have died. Nearly all of the casualties are civilians. Hamas has fired thousands of rockets indiscriminately into Israel, while Israeli forces respond with airstrikes and artillery barrages.

The front page of the New York Times this morning:

Congress is beginning to weigh in, and there were demonstrations in several major cities on Sunday supporting the Palestinians. Pro-Israel supporters have also turned out.

→ Freshman Sen. Jon Osoff (D-Ga.) led a statement with 29 Democratic senators calling for a cease fire. Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) was among those backing it.

→ Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Todd Young (R-Ind.) — the top Democrat and Republican on the Middle East subcommittee of the Foreign Relations panel — have a bipartisan statement also calling for a ceasefire.

→ Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Robert Menendez, (D-N.J.), a strong supporter of Israeli, issued a statement over the weekend saying he was “deeply troubled by reports of Israeli military actions that resulted in the death of innocent civilians in Gaza as well as Israeli targeting of buildings housing international media outlets.” 

A few things here to keep an eye on: 

→ The situation in Israel is splitting Democrats. A number of progressives — including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) — took to the floor last week to sharply criticize Israel and Netanyahu. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) backed Israel late last week during her news conference.

→ Republicans are in lock-step behind Netanyahu.

→ This is a growing international crisis that the United States is directly involved in. Hady Amr, a State Department envoy, is in the region now. The Biden administration has used its veto power inside the U.N. Security Council to block any statement on the conflict. President Joe Biden continues to publicly back Israel.

LEADER LOOK

How Pelosi and McCarthy are doing, and the challenges ahead

Point of personal privilege: We’ve skipped spring again. It’s going to be in the 90s in Washington this week.

With Congress in the middle of a crucial chunk of legislating, we thought it’d be a good time to look at party leaders and review their performance. We’ll evaluate Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) today, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) tomorrow.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy: If you were grading McCarthy based on how the media sees him, he’d get an F. The national press wants McCarthy to throw Donald Trump under the bus, throw him away like yesterday’s newspaper (do people still do that?) But, quite frankly, McCarthy’s political considerations dictate the opposite. McCarthy has a Republican Conference filled with loyalists to Trump, and McCarthy —  even if he wanted to — can’t break with Trump. So it will never happen.

But there have been a number of cringe-worthy moments. McCarthy’s first visit to Mar-a-Lago in January, just weeks after the Jan. 6 insurrection, was a critical moment in Trump’s “rehabilitation,” if you will. McCarthy’s shifting statements on Trump’s responsibility for what happened that bloody day have opened him up to legitimate criticism. Then McCarthy — in a shot at President Joe Biden — gushed on Sean Hannity’s show Friday that Trump doesn’t need five hours of sleep per night. Presumably, McCarthy figured Trump would be watching because no one else in the world cares how many hours the former president sleeps. 

So let’s judge McCarthy as the House GOP would. Republicans want him to raise piles of money — check. They want him to have a plan to win back the majority in 2022 — check. They want him to stay loyal to Trump — check. They want him to relentlessly bludgeon House Democrats — McCarthy is trying, but he’s been focused on Liz Cheney for the past few weeks. McCarthy will never win any contests as a public speaker, yet he’s done what he needed to do inside the conference.

But McCarthy faces a tough week ahead; two Jan. 6 related bills are on the floor and he’s not going to like either one. There’s the $1.9 billion supplemental spending bill, which is meant to harden the Capitol’s security infrastructure. This shouldn’t be a terribly controversial bill, so there’s truly no overarching reason for Republicans to oppose it, but they probably will anyway. This money is necessary because Trump supporters attacked the Capitol, and the political environment fostered in large part by Trump continues to fuel extremist behavior that endangers the lives of lawmakers, as well as congressional aides and the U.S. Capitol Police who guard them.

Then there’s the Jan. 6 commission bill. This is going to be thorny for McCarthy. Rep. John Katko (N.Y.) — the top Republican on the Homeland Security Committee — crafted the deal with tacit buy-in from and coordination with McCarthy’s leadership team. But McCarthy has refused to embrace the bill and sources tell us he’s going to have to say something about it soon. Two GOP lawmakers — Cheney and Rep. Fred Upton (Mich.) — have both said that the commission would eventually subpoena McCarthy. Never mind that the commission may get stalled in the Senate. If McCarthy’s House Republican Conference stays in lock step against the commission, they’ll hand Democrats a talking point: that the GOP is not interested in figuring out what happened on Jan. 6.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi: Nancy Pelosi is Nancy Pelosi. We’ve gotten so used to her running the House Democratic Caucus that it’s sometimes possible to forget how effective she is at her job. You can criticize Pelosi and her policy positions — that’s totally fair game — but there’s no underestimating her clout.

Pelosi and her longtime lieutenants — House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) — were able to  muscle the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan through the House with only Democratic support in March, and President Joe Biden signed it into law. That legislation was largely based on the Heroes Act the House passed last year, so it was a major win for the caucus. Democrats have also gotten a lot of mileage out of the “Voted no, but took the dough” line to criticize Republicans who opposed the legislation yet played up the funding it sent to their districts. 

Pelosi notched another victory last week when Rep. John Katko (R-N.Y.), ranking member on the Homeland Security Committee, agreed to her plan for a bipartisan commission to look into what happened on Jan. 6. This may just be Republicans making the best of a bad situation — Democrats were moving toward voting on the measure despite the GOP leadership not agreeing to a deal, and it looked as if a number of rank-and-file Republicans were going to cross the aisle and support it anyway. Yet it’s clearly a win for Pelosi, who has been pushing this plan for months.

Democratic fundraising — and Pelosi’s ability to rake in big money — remains strong. The U.S. economy is starting to turn around. The country has begun to emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic thanks to an aggressive national vaccination campaign. We could see some big growth numbers in the coming months. Unemployment is falling. Democrats have a plan on what to do next; Pelosi wants to push a big infrastructure bill through the House by July 4 in order to further juice the recovery. This will all help Democrats come next year, although probably not enough to overcome history and redistricting, both of which trend toward Republicans.

Now the downside — and there’s plenty to talk about here. Pelosi’s majority is in trouble; everyone knows Democrats are far more likely than not to lose the House in 2022. Democrats have already seen a number of retirement announcements, including Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), who was chair of the DCCC last cycle. Individual Democrats may have their own reasons for leaving office, but collectively, it looks bad for the party.

There are Democratic divides on the massive American Jobs Plan and American Family Plan that Biden has proposed. That’s $4 trillion-plus in new spending and taxes that Republicans uniformly oppose. Some of the Democratic divide is regionally driven — a number of Democrats are still upset about losing the SALT deduction in the 2017 GOP tax bill, and they have vowed to oppose any new tax bill that doesn’t restore the write-off. Moderates are worried over the huge deficit spending, seeing worrisome inflation statistics in recent months. And they don’t want to walk the plank on a tough vote for a bill that doesn’t become law, especially those who may run for higher office.

Overall, the 81-year-old Pelosi is as solid as ever. This is likely to be her final term, although she hasn’t made it official. She may surprise everyone and try to stay on, who knows?

SCOOP

Stefanik gives $1M to the NRCC

House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) transferred $1 million to the National Republican Congressional Committee after winning her spot in leadership last week.

To give context, Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) donated $2 million total to the NRCC last cycle. Stefanik clearly wants — and is likely to — surpass that. 

Stefanik had $2.5 million in her re-election committee in mid-April after a $1.1 million first quarter in 2021. She’s been consistently one of the top rank-and-file House fundraisers in the Trump era, and has been prolific on WinRed, the digital platform the GOP created last cycle.

HERE THEY COME

Dem group dropping $1.2 million to boost American Rescue Plan

One of the big missteps of the early days of the Obama administration was Democrats’ meager defense of the benefits of the stimulus package they passed to bail out the U.S. economy.

We’re seeing a bit of a different tact taken this time around. House Majority Forward — a major Dem outside group — is dropping another $1.2 million on ads thanking lawmakers for voting for the legislation, and bragging about its benefits. This is its second million-dollar round of ads, and it’s going to Democrats who are in political peril. 

Here’s an ad thanking Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Iowa). The buy here is $150,000:

Also getting spots — and the amount of the buy:

→ Rep. Haley Stevens of Michigan, $190,000

→ Rep. Angie Craig of Minnesota $110,000 

→ Rep. Susie Lee of Nevada, $145,000

→ Rep. Steve Horsford of Nevada, $145,000

→ Rep. Andy Kim of New Jersey, $100,000

→ Rep. Tom Malinowski of New Jersey, $145,000

→ Rep. Peter DeFazio of Oregon, $55,000

→ Rep. Vincente Gonzalez of Texas, $120,000

MOMENTS

8:20 a.m.: President Joe Biden will leave Wilmington, Del., for the White House. 

9:15 a.m.: Biden will arrive at the White House.

9:50 a.m.: Biden and VP Kamala Harris will get the daily intelligence briefing.

Noon: Jen Psaki will brief.

1 p.m.: Biden will speak about Covid-19 and vaccinations.

Week ahead: Tuesday: Biden will travel to Dearborn, Mich., to visit the Ford Rouge Electric Vehicle Center. Wednesday: Biden will travel to New London, Conn., to give the keynote address at the Coast Guard Academy graduation. Friday: South Korean President Moon Jae-in will be at the White House. They will hold a news conference.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “In New Vaccination Push, Biden Leans on His ‘Community Corps’,” by Noah Weiland in Philadelphia

→ “Why Justice Breyer May Resist Calls for His Retirement,” by Adam Liptak

WaPo

→ “Biden’s America: Democrats see competence, Republicans see chaos,” by Matt Viser and Seana Sullivan

→ “The NRA just had a major legal setback. But its hold on the gun-control debate endures.” by Tom Hamburger and Mike DeBonis

→ “Black, Brown and extremist: Across the far-right spectrum, people of color play a more visible role,” by Hannah Allam and Razzan Nakhlawi

→ “With violent crime spiking, the push for police reform collides with voters’ fears,” by Griff Witte and Dave Weigel

WSJ

→  “AT&T in Talks to Combine Media Assets, Including CNN, With Discovery,” by Cara Lombardo, Dana Cimilluca and Drew FitzGerald

→ “Bill Gates Left Microsoft Board Amid Probe Into Prior Relationship With Staffer,” by Emily Glazer, Justin Baer, Khadeeja Safdar and Aaron Tilley

Politico

→ “Rise of a megadonor: Thiel makes a play for the Senate,” by Alex Isenstadt

→ “Senate Republicans launch full-court press to woo Sununu,” by Burgess Everett and James Arkin

Axios

→ "Episode 9: Trump’s war with his generals," by Jonathan Swan and Zachary Basu

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images