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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN

THE TOP

The House Republican leadership has turned on Rep. Liz Cheney.

Reps. Kevin McCarthy of California and Steve Scalise of Louisiana — the top two House Republicans — are quietly working behind the scenes to boost New York Rep. Elise Stefanik’s bid for House Republican Conference Chair. 

McCarthy has reached out to candidates, seeking to help clear the field for Stefanik, a close ally of his. And Scalise is openly supporting Stefanik.

“House Republicans need to be solely focused on taking back the House in 2022 and fighting against Speaker Pelosi and President Biden’s radical socialist agenda, and Elise Stefanik is strongly committed to doing that, which is why Whip Scalise has pledged to support her for Conference Chair,” said Lauren Fine, Scalise’s spokesman.

A few important developments unfolded in the last few hours.

Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-Ind.), once seen as a possible opponent to Stefanik if Cheney drops out or is defeated, isn’t running for conference chair and is whipping for Stefanik. Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), the Republican Study Committee chair, isn’t running either. McCarthy was expressing his preference for Stefanik to many Republicans, including potential challengers, Tuesday.

This is an impressive effort chiefly by Stefanik — but also by McCarthy and Scalise — to try to clear the way for the New York Republican’s ascendancy into leadership. The extent to which the leadership has turned on Cheney is unlike anything in modern House GOP internal politics.

The Republican Conference will likely move next week to boot Cheney from her leadership position. There’s a quiet effort underway to find a female lawmaker from outside the hardline House Freedom Caucus to file a motion to remove her. If that’s adopted as expected, then the GOP leadership will be able to schedule the election for a successor. 

Just a quick reminder that Cheney is being pushed out for talking too frequently about former President Donald Trump’s false claim that the November election was stolen. She’s also hammered the former president about the insurrection that he fomented on Jan. 6. Cheney survived one vote, with McCarthy’s help. But nearly everyone we’ve spoken to in the last 12 hours thinks Cheney is toast. We haven’t seen any real effort by Team Cheney to hold onto the role. 

Cheney’s looming departure and Stefanik’s ascendence is the biggest shakeup in the House GOP leadership since 2015, when McCarthy suddenly dropped his bid for speaker and former Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) took the job instead. A close second is when Cheney herself announced a challenge to Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) for the conference job.

Here are a few other dynamics to keep an eye on:

→ What does this do to other GOP leadership aspirants? Will Stefanik become the odds on favorite for the No. 3 whip job if Republicans take back the majority? Leadership insiders believe that Stefanik doesn’t want the whip job, but instead wants to stay as conference chair and eventually wants a committee gavel. There are a whole host of people who would probably take a look at a whip race — including Reps. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.) or Banks — but will Stefanik become an immediate favorite?

→ A number of House Republican insiders make the case that the conference chair post is a dead end. The last person who made the direct leap from conference chair to a higher position was former Rep. Dick Armey of Texas, who became majority leader in 1995 when Republicans took the majority. John Boehner was conference chair and was forced out in 1998 and took a long path back to the leadership. 

We tend to brush aside this datapoint because each leader is different and each era of the House has its own dynamics. Stefanik would be a 36-year old in a leadership filled with 50-somethings. She’s a female in an all male leadership structure. 

→ McCarthy’s move to push aside Cheney has already pleased some Trump adherents in the House. There was some minor consternation that McCarthy didn’t invite Trump to the party retreat last week in Orlando.

ON HER WAY UP

Stefanik’s star is still on the rise in the House GOP

Here is Kevin McCarthy campaigning for Elise Stefanik in 2014, when she ran as a moderate Republican in upstate New York. Jake was traveling with McCarthy, and snapped the photo.

When GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik was first elected to the House in 2014, she was only 30, and at that time was the youngest woman ever elected to Congress.

A Harvard University grad, Stefanik was a former White House staffer under President George W. Bush and an aide on Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign in 2012. Stefanik won a tough Republican primary during that first campaign, thanks in part to $800,000 in support from American Crossroads, a super PAC founded by Karl Rove, Bush’s political strategist. Stefanik went on to take the 2014 general election handily, and she hasn’t faced a close race since then.

Stefanik built a record as a solid conservative from the “North Country,” but hardly doctrinaire. Smart, eloquent, and interested in helping more Republican women enter politics, Stefanik was viewed as one of the most bipartisan members of the House. She has snared seats on the Armed Services Committee — big for Fort Drum, which is in her district — as well as Education and Labor, and the Intelligence panels, an impressive array.

Now, seven years later, Stefanik finds herself very likely to win a spot in the House GOP leadership, replacing Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyo.) as GOP Conference chair. Yet this time, it’s because of her loyalty to former President Donald Trump, who destroyed the old Republican establishment personified by Romney and the Bushes. Stefanik, like the party, has been dramatically remade by the Trump era.

Stefanik wasn’t always an avid Trump booster. Stefanik backed Trump during the 2016 campaign, but she didn’t like his rhetorical attacks on Muslims or his border wall between the United States and Mexico, among other issues. Stefanik voted against Trump’s 2017 tax cut because it got rid of the state and local tax deduction, a huge issue for New Yorkers. Stefanik was one of only a dozen Republicans — nearly all of whom came from the Northeast or California — to oppose the measure, Trump’s biggest legislative achievement.

But it was Trump’s 2019 impeachment that changed everything for Stefanik. As a member of the Intelligence Committee, Stefanik emerged as an outspoken Trump defender, grilling witnesses sharply and clashing with Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff (D-Calif.). Trump quickly noticed, tweeting “A new Republican Star is born.” 

Stefanik later served on Trump’s defense team during his Senate trial. She ended up chairing his New York State reelection effort, and even got a prime speaking slot during the GOP convention. “President Trump has fought tirelessly to deliver results for all Americans, despite the Democrats’ baseless and illegal impeachment sham and the media’s endless obsession with it,” Stefanik said.

Her newfound status helped Stefanik rake in $11 million during the 2020 campaign, a massive sum for a member of the House.

After the election, when Trump falsely claimed the election was stolen, Stefanik backed him on that too. She, along with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.), objected to certifying President Joe Biden’s Electoral College victory for several states, although she voted against the Arizona objection.

Stefanik’s ascension comes at a critical time for the House Republicans. They may win the majority next year, but they sure can’t quit Trump. Cheney is losing her leadership post because she won’t stop bashing the former president, especially over his role in the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol. 

For Stefanik, public criticism of Trump isn’t going to be an issue. Yet having her in the number three spot also means that the most senior House GOP leaders voted against certifying Biden’s victory just hours after the Capitol was sacked by Trump supporters. Instead of moving away from Trump — or moving beyond — House Republicans are growing even closer to him.

THE DONOR PAPER

WSJ ed board urges GOP to not dump Cheney

Team Cheney doesn’t have much to be chipper about right now, but they are taking solace in the Wall Street Journal’s editorial this morning.

Take it away, Sixth Avenue: 

“[Liz Cheney] continues to rankle some in the GOP House conference by refusing to go along with Mr. Trump’s demand that Republicans agree that the 2020 election was stolen. On Monday Mr. Trump issued a statement that ‘The Fraudulent Presidential Election of 2020 will be, from this day forth, known as THE BIG LIE!’ … 

“This has angered some in the House GOP, and on Tuesday Axios caught House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy on a hot mic saying ‘I’ve had it with her.’ But Mr. McCarthy knows Ms. Cheney is right. The election wasn’t stolen, yet Mr. Trump wants an endorsement of his stolen claim to be a litmus test for every Republican candidate. He’s the one who wants to refight his losing campaign. 

“The better part of political prudence would be for Ms. Cheney to ignore Mr. Trump. But Mr. Trump won’t ignore her. He issued four statements on Monday and three of the four were attacks on fellow Republicans, including one on Ms. Cheney. She may be ousted because she is daring to tell the truth to GOP voters—and at personal political risk. … 

“Republicans should find a way to speak this truth to voters in 2022 — and quickly turn to running on an agenda for the future that will check Mr. Biden and his cradle-to-grave entitlement state. Purging Liz Cheney for honesty would diminish the party.”

Sure, some House Republicans might read this. But the days of the GOP looking to the “Paul Street Journal” — an internal nickname given it’s coziness with former Speaker Paul Ryan — have passed.

SILICON VALLEY x TRUMP

Facebook will announce decision on Trump’s return

An independent “oversight board” for Facebook will announce this morning whether former President Donald Trump can begin posting again on the social media giant’s site. Trump is permanently barred from Twitter — his favorite venue — “due to the risk of the further incitement of violence.” 

Facebook banned Trump shortly after the deadly Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol by Trump supporters, which he helped incite. Trump was impeached by the House over his actions leading up to that attack, but the Senate later acquitted him. 

Getting Facebook to lift its ban is a big deal for Trump. As Axios explains, “Social media interactions about former President Trump have fallen 91% since January,” which hurts his political viability going forward. And his fundraising power.

Trump wants and needs Americans talking about him. It’s what made him a star during the 2016 run for the White House, and as president, he dominated the American political scene like no one before him, for better and, often, worse.

Facebook doesn’t have to follow the decision from the independent oversight board, which has been looking into this issue for months. But for Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg and other Facebook executives, it would be a politically risky move to keep the ban in place if the board says he can return. Republicans are already on a crusade against “Big Tech,” and any action like that would only add to the GOP attack.

However, Democrats are equally as keen that Trump stay gone. His divisive rhetoric and false statements leading up to Jan. 6 provoked an enormous political crisis, one that is still playing out on Capitol Hill and throughout the country. They’d rather Trump be gone from social media forever and will be watching Facebook’s decision closely.

Here’s a good explainer on Trump and Facebook from the New York Times.

MOMENTS

9:50 a.m.: President Joe Biden will receive his intelligence briefing.

10:05 a.m.: VP Kamala Harris will travel to Providence, R.I.

11 a.m.: The Covid-19 team will brief reporters.

11:40 a.m.: Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff will tour a small business in Allentown, Pa.

12:30 p.m.: Jen Psaki and Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack will brief reporters.

1 p.m.: Harris will participate in a small business event.

2 p.m.: Biden will speak on the implementation of the American Rescue Plan.

2:05 p.m.: Harris will participate in a women-led small business roundtable with Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. 

4:55 p.m.: Harris will fly back to D.C.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Judge Says Barr Misled on How His Justice Dept. Viewed Trump’s Actions,” by Mike Schmidt

→ “Business Coalitions Speak Out Against Voting Restrictions in Texas,” by Nick Corasaniti and David Gelles

→ “Covid-19: Pfizer to Seek Clearance in September for Vaccinating Children as Young as 2,” by Emily Anthes

→ Congressional Memo: “House Republicans Have Had Enough of Liz Cheney’s Truth-Telling,” by Nick Fandos and Catie Edmondson

WaPo

→ “Giuliani evidence should be reviewed by an outside lawyer, Justice Dept. says,” by Devlin Barrett: “Federal prosecutors have asked a judge to appoint an outside lawyer to review the records seized from Rudolph W. Giuliani — echoing the Justice Department’s pursuit of a criminal case against a previous attorney for former president Donald Trump, Michael Cohen.

“In a letter unsealed Tuesday, federal prosecutors in Manhattan asked U.S. District Judge J. Paul Oetken to appoint what’s known as a special master to examine evidence taken late last month from the former New York mayor’s home and office. They cited the Cohen case as a past example when such an appointment helped to show that Trump’s lawyer was treated fairly.”

→ “Club of rich countries to address unequal global vaccine rollout,” by Paul Schemm

→ “Netanyahu fails to form a governing coalition by deadline, putting his continued rule into question,” by Steve Hendrix in Jerusalem

WSJ

→ “Yellen Says She Isn’t Predicting Higher Interest Rates,” by Kate Davidson: “Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Tuesday she is neither predicting nor recommending that the Federal Reserve raise interest rates as a result of President Biden’s spending plans, walking back her comments earlier in the day that rates might need to rise to keep the economy from overheating.

“‘I don’t think there’s going to be an inflationary problem, but if there is, the Fed can be counted on to address it,’ Ms. Yellen, a former Fed chairwoman, said Tuesday at The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council Summit.”

AP

→ “Facebook board’s Trump decision could have wider impacts,” by Barbara Ortutay

Politico

→ “Retirements, redistricting and Texas surprise squeeze House Democratic majority" by Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris

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