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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Here’s a question we’ve been pondering: How does this all end?

Congress has a massive legislative slate on tap as the Senate returns today (the House is back next week), and there seem to be a huge number of ways this year can end. The key question right now for President Joe Biden and leaders in both parties on the Hill is what happens to the bipartisan “hard” infrastructure package? The fate of that nearly $1 trillion bill will help decide what happens on the Democrats’ budget resolution and reconciliation package, which include Biden’s American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan. The reconciliation bill itself won’t be under consideration until this fall.

→ The straightforward: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer says he wants to set up floor votes on the bipartisan infrastructure bill and a budget resolution with reconciliation instructions before the Senate recesses. Schumer has already warned that he’ll keep the Senate in session past the scheduled Aug. 6 recess date if needed to pass these measures.

A lot would need to happen to make Schumer’s timeline reality. The bipartisan infrastructure bill needs to be put into legislative text quickly — as soon as this week, if possible — and it needs to be scored by the Congressional Budget Office. The bipartisan group of senators needs to find 10 Republicans to support the infrastructure bill, meaning five more than they currently have, while holding all 50 Senate Democrats. The House and Senate would also have to informally agree on a budget resolution framework as well. On top of all that, there would have to be a nearly flawless floor performance for both those measures to get through the Senate during the next few weeks. The budget resolution will take a week to pass on the floor, and that’s not even finalized yet either. 

Let’s say all of that happens. The House — with no votes currently scheduled from July 30 to Sept. 20 — would then probably revise its schedule. Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her leadership team could take up those pieces of legislation in August and try to pass them quickly, either individually or as a one-two punch. Or House Democrats could extend the session deeper into the month. Or they can come back in September and take the bills up.

That would leave September for the debt limit and government funding. The debt limit can’t ride in a reconciliation package unless Congress wants to lift the cap by a certain dollar figure. So we’re not sure how they handle that in this construct. The House will try to pass some FY 2022 appropriations bills before it leaves in August, at least if House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and Appropriations Committee Chair Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) have anything to say about it. How many is an open question, but we’d be surprised if it’s even half of the 12 annual bills — and that list won’t include Defense or any of the other big ones.

And then Congress would have to consider the meat in the American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan. 

→ Another scenario: Congress struggles with the budget resolution and/or bipartisan infrastructure package and wastes the rest of July flailing around. After fruitlessly staying in town for part of August, Congress recesses for a couple weeks. That brings us to September, during which lawmakers have to find a way to fund the government and lift the debt limit. Congress gets some sort of hard infrastructure bill through, passes a short-term funding bill to avoid a shutdown and also suspends the debt ceiling until December — there’s no time or political will for anything else. This would create a cliff at the end of the year to help create urgency to pass a so-called “human infrastructure” bill under reconciliation before 2022 starts.

→ Or how about this scenario: The bipartisan Senate infrastructure deal falls apart. The pay fors don’t score well enough, there’s not enough GOP support to get to the 60-vote threshold. This causes huge trouble with the budget resolution, as Democratic moderates in the House and Senate balk at tax increases or deficit spending. These Democrats are more worried about staying alive politically in 2022 than they are about Biden’s legislative dreams. The issue drags on for a while. Democrats eventually pass a scaled-back infrastructure package with a mix of “hard” and “human” programs on a party line vote. The cost is somewhere in the $1 trillion to $2 trillion range. Democrats end up passing a continuing resolution to keep the government running into early ‘22 too, but they have a hard time putting together an omnibus spending package until after the new year. At some point, a suspension of the debt ceiling until 2023 is enacted. Some Republicans vote for the spending bills but nothing else.

→ Eek, what about this: Democrats struggle to pass a stopgap funding bill and have a tough time with raising the debt limit because they can’t pass an infrastructure bill or budget. Remember: a stopgap funding bill would almost certainly be based on Trump-era spending levels and that will not be palatable to a lot of Democrats. And the debt limit? Democrats will need to carry that one on their own. So if Dems struggle on the big stuff, the small stuff becomes harder.

Any or all of this may happen. There are seemingly an infinite number of possibilities here. Each development during the next few weeks will help chart the legislative course for the rest of the year, and also could have a huge impact on Biden’s legislative legacy. This all kicks off today.

Did we forget an obvious scenario? Send Jake an email — address on our website — and we’ll include it if it makes sense.

Be on the lookout this week: Senior aides who have signed up for The Canvass, our anonymous survey, should be on the lookout for our last questionnaire before the poll takes a hiatus over the month of August. We want to know what you think! Haven’t signed up yet? Check it out. 

THE ROADMAP

The Senate is back. Let the games begin.

The Senate returns from a two-week recess with lots to do, as we explained above. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will continue pushing his “two track” approach — the bipartisan Senate infrastructure proposal one on track, and the Democrat-centric budget resolution with reconciliation instructions on the other — as he seeks some big legislative wins before the chamber leaves for the August break.

Schumer told reporters at a press conference on Sunday that “We are proceeding on both tracks very well. I was on the phone all weekend talking to all kinds of different people and legislators about moving forward on those tracks, as well as with the White House and the president, and we’re moving forward.”

Schumer is expected to meet with Democratic members of the Senate Budget Committee early this week. He’s seeking a “unity” budget resolution from all 11 Democrats on the panel, ranging from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) to Mark Warner (D-Va.), which isn’t going to be easy. Axios reported Sunday night that “Key negotiators expect the Senate Budget Committee to settle on a roughly $3.5 trillion reconciliation package as the starting point” for Democratic reconciliation package, but all of this is very fluid and don’t expect anyone to lock into any number at this point, Democratic insiders warn. Sanders told the New York Times’ Maureen Dowd that a $2 trillion to $3 trillion reconciliation package is “much too low.” Democratic moderates will strongly disagree with Sanders’ take, and they are the swing votes here.

At the same time, members of the “G10,” the bipartisan group of senators working on a “hard” infrastructure package, continue to draft their bill. Their aides are working with Democratic committee chairs — and maybe even the White House, we’re told – to put the bill into legislative language. It’s unclear if we’ll see the bipartisan infrastructure package this week, but we do know there won’t be any floor action on either the budget resolution or the bipartisan bill until next week at the earliest. And we even have doubts about that timeline.

We’re also going to hear a lot from Democrats on the Child Tax Credit checks that start going out this week. Democrats dramatically ramped up these payments as part of the American Rescue Plan passed in March, and millions of families could start getting payments beginning July 15.

In the committees, there are several big issues, including Iraq and inflation. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will get a closed-door briefing on Monday night about the impact of repealing the 1991 and 2002 authorizations for use of military force (AUMF) against Iraq. There’ll also be discussion about recent attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria. 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will appear before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday for his semiannual report to Congress. This Powell appearance will be very closely watched, especially when it comes to his views about inflation. 

The Senate Appropriations Committee’s subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government will hear from Tammy Whitcomb, the inspector general for the U.S. Postal Service.

There’s also one nomination we’re watching that could come to the floor. Schumer filed cloture on Julie Su to the deputy secretary of Labor before the recess began. Schumer hasn’t set the cloture vote for Su yet, but we’re watching that closely. Su is currently secretary for the California Labor and Workforce Development Agency.

DIVING IN

Donald Trump Jr. to press red state Democrats on ATF nomination

Donald Trump Jr.’s first foray into legislative politics in the Biden era will be to try to press red state Democrats to oppose the nomination of David Chipman, President Joe Biden’s nominee to lead the Bureau of Alcohol,Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF).

Chipman is a gun control advocate and former ATF agent who works for former Rep. Gabby Giffords’ (D-Ariz.) group. Giffords, who is married to Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), suffered severe injuries in a 2011 mass shooting that left six people dead and 15 wounded.

The younger Trump will be appearing on local and national television to push Democrats to oppose the nomination and he plans to add some paid elements to the effort.

“Biden nominating a radical anti-gun activist to lead a law enforcement and public safety agency is just more evidence of the myth that this is a moderate administration,” a source close to Trump Jr. told us. “We won’t let Democrat senators in states like West Virginia, Montana and Arizona get away with being pro-2A at home while being Schumer’s gun-grabbing puppets in DC.” 

This is, indeed, going to be an interesting nomination to watch in the coming days and weeks. Chipman’s nomination isn’t scheduled for a floor vote yet and a host of Democratic moderates haven’t committed one way or another as to how they will vote. We’re watching Democratic Sens. Jon Tester (Mont.), Joe Manchin (W.Va.), Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.), Angus King (I-Maine) and Maggie Hassan (N.H.).

MOMENTS

10 a.m.: President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will receive their daily intelligence briefing. 

11:25 a.m.: Harris will fly to Detroit.

12:15 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief reporters.

1:15 p.m.: Biden will meet with Attorney General Merrick Garland and other leaders about a strategy to reduce gun crimes.

2 p.m.: Harris will hold a “voting rights listening session” at the TCF Center.

3:25 p.m.: Harris will speak at a vaccine mobiliation event at the TCF Center.

5:25 p.m.: Harris will speak at a fundraiser for Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

6:30 p.m.: Harris will fly back to D.C.

Biden’s week: Tuesday: Biden will go to Philadelphia to talk about voting rights. Wednesday: Biden will meet with governors and mayors to discuss the bipartisan infrastructure framework. Thursday: Biden will speak about the Child Tax Credit. He will also host German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the White House for meetings and a dinner. Friday: Biden will go to Camp David for the weekend.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Voters Chose Boring Over Bombast. They Got Biden’s Penchant for Pontificating,” by Michael D. Shear in Crystal Lake, Ill.

→ “After Marathon Hearings, Texas Republicans Advance Voting Measure,” by David Montgomery in Austin, Texas

WaPo

→ “Police say suspect in killing of Haiti’s Moïse planned to assume presidency,” by Widlore Merancourt in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and Samantha Schmidt in D.C.: “Authorities said Sunday they have arrested a Haitian man suspected of playing a leading role in the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, allegedly recruiting some of the assailants by telling them they would be his bodyguards.

“Police said Christian Emmanuel Sanon, 63, planned to assume the presidency and hire some of the men as his security team. Sanon is reportedly a doctor with long-standing ties to Florida. The announcement of his arrest came as senior FBI and Department of Homeland Security officials arrived in Haiti Sunday to discuss how the United States might assist after Moïse’s killing last week.”

→ “Top U.S. commander in Afghanistan to step down Monday, marking a symbolic end to 20 years of war,” by Dan Lamothe in Kabul: “Army Gen. Austin ‘Scott’ Miller, who has overseen the war effort for nearly three years, will relinquish responsibility in a ceremony at the top U.S. military headquarters. President Biden said last week that the military withdrawal he ordered will be complete Aug. 31, but Miller’s departure is among the only pieces left. Virtually all other troops, contractors and equipment already have exited, defense officials said on the condition of anonymity because of the issue’s sensitivity. … 

“Marine Gen. Kenneth ‘Frank’ McKenzie, the chief of U.S. Central Command, arrived in Kabul on Monday morning to assume command of the remaining mission. He is expected to oversee the small-scale operation from his headquarters in Tampa, with a two-star Navy SEAL, Rear Adm. Peter Vasely, leading about 650 troops tasked with protecting the U.S. Embassy.”

→ “Cubans take to the streets for the biggest anti-government protests in decades,” by Anthony Faiola in Miami

WSJ

→ “Global Tax Deal Heads Down Perilous Path in Congress,” by Richard Rubin

AP

→ “Listen up: Biden speaks volumes in a whisper to make a point,” by Darlene Superville

LAT

→ “Scuffle breaks out at Rep. Katie Porter’s town hall,” by Seema Mehta

THE NEW AND IMPROVED LOOKAHEAD

The Lookahead with Phil Mattingly

The Lookahead returned last night with CNN’s Senior White House Correspondent, Phil Mattingly.  We discussed the bipartisan infrastructure deal, the Jan. 6 select committee and who we’re watching this week in Washington.

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