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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Big news: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is taking a very hard line on the debt ceiling. His message — if Senate Democrats want to raise the debt ceiling, they’re going to have to do it themselves because no Republicans will vote for it in the current “environment” on Capitol Hill. 

“I can’t imagine there will be a single Republican voting to raise the debt ceiling after what we’ve been experiencing,” McConnell told Bres on Tuesday night in the Capitol.

“I can’t imagine a single Republican in this environment that we’re in now — this free-for-all for taxes and spending — to vote to raise the debt limit,” McConnell added. “I think the answer is they need to put it in the reconciliation bill.”

This is a loud warning shot across the bow to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, President Joe Biden, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the entire Democratic establishment. A two-year suspension of the debt ceiling enacted by Congress in 2019 will expire at the end of July, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that the federal government could hit its borrowing limit quickly. Yellen has implored Congress to act, calling a possible default “unthinkable.”

McConnell, however, believes this is a problem for Democrats to handle. He thinks Democrats should include a debt ceiling increase or suspension in whatever reconciliation package they put together and pass it themselves on a party line vote. 

This isn’t a completely unusual position for Republicans in the minority. But the problem here for Democrats is that they won’t be able to put together a reconciliation bill for weeks or even several months, and the federal government will likely reach its borrowing limit much sooner. The Treasury Department has not set a target date yet. The current national debt is $28.5 trillion.

Some Democrats believe McConnell wouldn’t be able to keep all his Republicans in line if the House were to send over a stand-alone bill to suspend the debt limit until, say, the middle of 2023 — especially if Wall Street starts leaning on GOP lawmakers. But we’d also caution anyone from betting against McConnell.

One other point — If this is what Republicans are going to do on the debt ceiling, what’s going to happen on government spending? The House is set to take up a $900-billion plus “minibus” next week. We’re wondering how many Republicans are going to vote for this package at this point.

INFRASTRUCTURE UPDATE

The bipartisan group says it’s close. But Schumer is moving today

At 2:30 this afternoon, the Senate is set to take a procedural vote on whether to proceed with debate on the bipartisan infrastructure bill. This motion is expected to fail. 

But following a long meeting on Tuesday night, several senators and senior aides taking part in the talks on the bipartisan infrastructure package expressed new hope that a deal is still possible. There’s no firm sense when a compromise would come together — but it does, in fact, seem to be close.

Here’s what everyone was saying after haggling over policy and eating Surfside grub:

→ Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) says there was no deal yet but asserted the two sides are closing in on a deal. “I really believe tomorrow it will be all done. We’re so close,” Tester told reporters. Tester noted that there are a series of calls planned for today, and that an agreement could be reached prior to the cloture vote.

→ Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) said there was a chance that the group could have legislative text by early next week, possibly as soon as Monday. This is after the deadline sent by Schumer, yet would still allow the bipartisan group a chance to have an impact.

→ Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.): “I would not be screwing up your nights … that many times in a row if I didn’t think this is going to get done. Whoever writes the ultimate tick-tock of this story — Pulitzer material.” Mmm, yeah, we’ll see. 

→ The two leaders of the bipartisan negotiations — Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio) — were more cautious and didn’t predict any breakthroughs.

“We’re making great progress,” Sinema said late Monday night. “We’re in really good shape.” … “We are making great progress,” Portman echoed. “Day by day.”

Portman is expected to host a lunch for a broader range of senators from both parties on Wednesday where this issue will be discussed at length.

One other point: Moody’s Chief economist Mark Zandi will release a new report today calling for passage of both the nearly $1 trillion bipartisan “hard” infrastructure package and a $3.5 trillion “human” infrastructure bill that Democrats will draft in coming months. This is something Democrats are going to be talking a lot about. Zandi, of course, gained fame because he was an "adviser" to the late John McCain, but nearly always sided with Democrats

Here’s Zandi: “The bipartisan infrastructure deal and reconciliation package help address this. Greater investments in public infrastruc­ture and social programs will lift productivity and labor force growth, and the attention on climate change will help forestall its increas­ingly corrosive economic effects. Moreover, the policies being considered would direct the benefits of the stronger growth to lower-in­come Americans and address the long-run­ning skewing of the income and wealth distribution.”

More Zandi: “Worries that the plan will ignite undesirably high inflation and an overheating economy are overdone.”

SCHUMER STYLE

What have we learned about Chuck Schumer?

Six months and one day ago, Chuck Schumer became the Senate majority leader. And to be completely honest here, he’s had a couple of big bipartisan successes in a 50-50 Senate. 

Passage of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan was a huge win. Schumer got USICA — a major research and technology package to take on China — through the Senate. He pushed an anti-Asian hate crime bill through his chamber when that didn’t look possible at first. Schumer guided the Senate through the second impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump and he’s made a strong start on getting confirmations for President Joe Biden’s executive and judicial branch nominees.

But Schumer was always going to be judged on whether he could shepherd Biden’s legislative agenda through the 50-50 Senate, with Mitch McConnell as his counterpart, counterweight and foil. 

We’re in the middle of Schumer’s play here — we have no idea what the ultimate fate of Biden’s agenda will be — but we can make some assessments about his leadership style. And we have learned a good deal about how the New York Democrat runs the Senate.

→ Schumer isn’t Harry Reid. Reid, the last Democratic majority leader, ran the chamber with a tight hand. The Nevada Democrat was famously blunt, sometimes even brusque or crusty. And that was to Democrats. Reid’s leadership team — which included Schumer — was very small, and he kept his plans for legislation or the floor closely held inside that group. Schumer is the opposite. He talks to everyone, seemingly at all times. Schumer expanded the leadership team dramatically, and he’s pretty open about what he’s planning to do legislatively, if not always his tactics.

→ Collaborative to a fault. Schumer is very collaborative; he’s not afraid to reach down into his caucus to work with a junior Democrat, or across the aisle to work with Republicans if it would get him a legislative win.

→ Schumer doesn’t make threats. It’s just not his style. It isn’t that Schumer can’t be a tough partisan or stern with one of his own colleagues; he’s as hard-nosed a partisan as anyone who has ever held that job. But after 40 years in Congress, Schumer doesn’t go around looking for showdowns with his colleagues. It’s simply not his way. How Schumer has handled Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia is proof of this. He’s worked Manchin over, brought him into the leadership and kept him close. 

→ The biggest criticism of Schumer has always been that he’s more tactics than strategy, and he doesn’t know how to say “No” to anyone. But these traits have helped him. Schumer has shown he’s willing to follow his colleagues’ lead on an issue. Look at the bipartisan infrastructure deal. That was led by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, a relatively junior Democrat. This has been a major gamble for him.

→ “Big and bold.” Schumer has uttered this phrase so often when talking about the Democrats’ agenda that it’s become a running gag with reporters. But it’s also what Biden wants, and Schumer uses this approach to try to respond to the pressures inside his own party. It hasn’t worked on voting rights, the minimum wage or some other progrssive priorities. This has led to some complaints from the left.

→ If Schumer fails, here’s what people will say: He didn’t show the discipline it takes to get a complex legislative package done. Sometimes, a leader needs to lead — that’s what he or she is elected to do. Schumer let the process play out a bit too much and it ended up controlling him instead of the other way around.

THE MONEY GAME

Senate Dem super PAC claps back: We trounced Republicans

We reported in yesterday morning’s edition that the Senate Leadership Fund raised $4.4 million in the first six months of 2021.

Well, Senate Majority PAC — the equivalent Democratic super PAC — raised $14 million, which they helpfully note is $9 million more than the Republicans. The big number comes after the group spent $100 million to help flip the Georgia Senate seats last cycle.

By the numbers: SMP has received contributions from 125,000 donors who gave less than $5,000.

THE VAX GAP

With U.S. vaccine drive slowing, House GOP pushes misinformation

It’s truly stunning how many House Republicans are raising unfounded fears about vaccine outreach programs. If you listen to some GOP lawmakers, federal agents are going door-to-door demanding Americans take the Covid-19 vaccine or they’re going to take their guns and Bibles away. Or something like that.

The issue of “vaccine hesitancy,” as it’s been termed, is growing more acute as the Delta variant of Covid-19 continues to spread rapidly across the United States, driving up the number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths.

Yet this is also rapidly “​​becoming a pandemic of the unvaccinated,” according to CDC Director Rochelle Wallensky. More than 97% of the Covid-19 hospitalizations are among the vaccinated, and more than 99% of the deaths. And a large percentage of those Americans who are choosing not to get vaccinated are conservatives who don’t trust President Joe Biden or his administration’s plans for expanding vaccinations.

Biden has announced a strategy to go “community by community, neighborhood by neighborhood, and oftentimes, door to door — literally knocking on doors” to increase vaccination rates. But there are no federal mandates to get vaccinated, and none are going to be enacted soon. There are no federal agents banging on anyone’s door or checking their vaccination status.

Now, some high-ranking officials could have done a far better job explaining the government’s position. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra said on July 8 “it is absolutely the government’s business” to know whether individual Americans have been vaccinated, especially considering how much money taxpayers have spent on the pandemic. Following a wave of criticism, Becerra walked back his comments. “To be clear: government has no database tracking who is vaccinated,” Becerra later tweeted.

Yet here’s how some House Republicans tell it:

→ Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) at the recent Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas: Don’t come knocking on my door with your ‘Fauci ouchie.’ You leave us the hell alone."

→ Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) this weekend on Twitter: “The Biden administration wants to knock down your door KGB-style to force people to get vaccinated. We must oppose forced vaccination!” When we caught up with Smith yesterday in the Capitol, he declined to answer any questions and referred us to his press office.

→ Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.): “Now they’re talking about going door-to-door to take vaccines to the people,” Cawthorn told the Right Side Broadcast Network at CPAC in Dallas earlier in July. “Then think about what those mechanisms could be used for. They could then go door-to-door to take your guns. They could then go door-to-door to take your Bibles.” There’s no evidence of any government scheme to seize guns or Bibles from Americans.

→ Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas): “There’s a sheriff in one of the counties I represent in Texas, who just told a crowd, if any of these vaccine feds come up to your property, you kick them off and I’ll be there to defend you and back you up,” Roy told Fox News’ Tucker Carlson last week.

→ Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.): "Door-to-door vaccine checks on Americans are a blatant abuse of government authority and a pure power play by the Biden administration," Biggs said in a statement to Fox News. Nope. No vaccine checks.

→ Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) on Twitter in response to Biden’s comments: “This is dangerous. At this point, infection & transmission rates are extremely low & virtually all Americans have access to the vaccine. Everyone who wants to be vaccinated can be. We can’t continue to infringe upon people’s Constitutional rights under the guise of public health.”

→ Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio): In an interview with Fox’s Maria Bartiromo, Davidson slammed state and local governments that require proof of vaccination in exchange for services or employment as “an invasion of privacy” and added that “freedom is under attack.”

→ Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.): Greene was suspended from Twitter for 12 hours on Monday evening after her account violated Covid misinformation policies. The Georgia freshman tweeted that Covid “is not dangerous for non-obese people and those under 65.”

→ Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.): “Becerra and Biden have you on a list and are going door-to-door. This is absurd, even by Dem COVID power trip standards. No one gets to make your health decisions for you – that includes the government,” Bishop tweeted.

In an interview, Bishop said he was responding to Becerra’s claim that “it is absolutely the government’s business" to know who’s vaccinated.

“I think the problem was the president’s rhetoric…. the notion that they’re going to go door-to-door throughout the country has a threatening patina. I think that was very ill advised,” Bishop told us yesterday when we asked him about his tweet. “I think the president has become overbearing in terms of how to encourage people to take the vaccine.”

→ House Republicans aren’t the only ones who are pushing these lines. "Big Government in control — Joe Biden is sending agents to your door to compel vaccinations,” Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) said on Twitter Friday.

House GOP Whip Steve Scalise got vaccinated this weekend and said he has “high confidence” in the vaccine’s development process. But Scalise still had choice words for the Biden administration’s outreach efforts.

“You’re seeing some people try to bully people into doing things instead of just encouraging,” Scalise said. “We should be encouraging people to get it, but not trying to threaten people or mandate things when you see the success rates… it’s out there and it’s available and it’s safe and effective.”

Also: NYT: “As Virus Resurges, G.O.P. Lawmakers Allow Vaccine Skepticism to Flourish,” by Jonathan Weisman and Sheryl Stolberg … WaPo: “Growing number of Republicans urge vaccinations amid delta surge,” by Marianna Sotomayor, Jacqueline Alemany and Mike DeBonis 

MOMENTS

10:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden will receive his daily intelligence briefing. 

2:25 p.m.: Biden will leave for Andrews, where he’ll travel to Cincinnati. He’ll land at 4:10 p.m. Jen Psaki will gaggle on board Air Force One.

2:45 p.m.: Vice President Kamala Harris will meet with “poll workers and other election officials to hear directly from them about their experiences helping voters cast their ballot and have their ballots counted.”

5:40 p.m.: Biden will discuss the Build Back Better agenda at the IBEW / NECA Electrical Training Center, 

8 p.m.: Biden will participate in a CNN town hall at Mount St. Joseph University.

10 p.m.: Biden will leave Ohio for D.C. He’ll arrive at the White House at 11:35 p.m.

First Lady Jill Biden will stop in Alaska en route to Tokyo for the Olympics.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Why Biden Might Avoid the Policy Sinkhole That Swamped His Predecessors,” by Nate Cohn

→ “On Fox News, Vaccination Pleas Intensify, but Skepticism Persists,” by Michael M. Grynbaum, Tiffany Hsu and Zolan Kanno-Youngs

WaPo

→ “Justice Department seeks 50-year bar to release of grand jury material,” by Devlin Barrett

→ “Tampa man, 20, admits intending to block Congress with Oath Keepers in new Capitol riot guilty plea,” by Spencer S. Hsu

WSJ

→ “U.S.-German Deal on Russia’s Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Expected Soon,” by Bojan Pancevski and Brett Forrest

AP

→ “Biden’s 3rd trip to reddish Ohio pushes his economic agenda,” by Josh Boak

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images