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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

The Senate will vote to pass the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill at 11 a.m. today.

This is a big moment for Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio), the whole G10 group, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and President Joe Biden. Getting this $1 trillion bill through the Senate seemed very unlikely two months ago, but it’s about to happen.

And yes, there remain major issues to resolve before this legislation becomes law. Not the least of which is Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s vow to hold onto this bill until the Senate passes a massive, multi-trillion dollar reconciliation package, which will not happen until October at the earliest. This bipartisan moment may only last that long — a moment — as the Senate now heads into the most important policy fight of the year over the Democrats’ budget resolution.

But to get even this far is something a lot of Senate insiders didn’t think would happen, so credit must be given to the G10 for making it happen.

One other issue is worth noting — Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell surprised Democrats here. After the infrastructure negotiations between Biden and Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) fizzled out in early June, it didn’t look like any bipartisan agreement was possible. Many Democrats didn’t believe McConnell would allow his Republicans to reach a compromise, and he’d instead block any major legislation from moving through the chamber in order to gain political advantage heading into 2022.

Yet McConnell didn’t do that on the bipartisan infrastructure bill. He voted for cloture and is expected to vote to support it on final passage, even as a majority of Senate Republicans are opposed. Democrats privately suggest McConnell is allowing a bipartisan win here to save the filibuster.  Allowing this bill through helps undercut the “Senate-is-broken” argument and protects the 60-vote threshold. And there are several other bipartisan Senate wins in recent months: an anti-Asian hate bill; a major initiative backed by Schumer to foster competition with China; even a recent Capitol security funding package that includes $1 billion-plus to relocate thousands of America’s Afghan allies as they exit that troubled nation along with U.S. forces. That took months to pass, but it passed.

Even after passage of the infrastructure legislation, Schumer has called up the $3.5 trillion budget resolution, which will include a days-long vote-a-rama. That process is expected to begin today. It will pass on a party line vote. Also: Schumer may tee up one more vote on election reform before the Senate adjourns for the August break. McConnell and Republicans will block that from moving forward, if it happens, reminding everyone once again the stakes in the filibuster debate.

The Coverage

→ NYT, A1" “Senate Democrats Begin $3.5 Trillion Push for ‘Big, Bold’ Social Change,” by Emily Cochrane, with Alan Rappeport, Coral Davenport, Margot Sanger-Katz and Nick Fandos.

→ WaPo, A1: “Democrats release $3.5 trillion budget blueprint as Senate prepares to finish infrastructure debate,” by Tony Romm

QUESTION OF THE DAY

What are Democrats thinking on the debt ceiling?

A lot of veteran Capitol Hill staffers, administration aides and reporters are asking themselves the same question this week. What can Democrats possibly be thinking when it comes to raising the debt ceiling?

Let’s review. The White House and Senate Democrats had a relatively straightforward path here, although maybe not politically easy: Lift the borrowing cap with 50 Senate Democratic votes as part of reconciliation and push it through the House the same way. Not pretty, but effective. And it would allow President Joe Biden and the party to focus on other issues.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell suggested that Democrats do just that — use the fast-track process available to them — so Democratic leaders have promptly endorsed the opposite strategy. They have vowed to lift the debt limit using regular order, which would require the cooperation of 10 Republican senators. McConnell is completely certain that none of his Republicans — not one — will vote for a debt ceiling hike. Not with Democrats and the White House pushing a $3.5 trillion reconciliation package that includes huge new spending initiatives and tax increases. Go right ahead, he’s daring the White House. Try to pick off my members. If you have the votes, beat me. Go ahead.

The White House’s theory is this: this debt was racked up under former President Donald Trump, and Democrats are not going to let Republicans just hang it around their necks. Some in the White House seem to think 10 Senate Republicans will budge and vote for the debt limit if it’s twinned with a government funding bill next month. 

Democrats are playing the same hand they did in 2011 — saying the debt limit is a joint responsibility that both parties own equally. But the politics are different this time. Republicans are in the minority in the House and Senate, and the Republican Party is a much different party than it was a decade ago. The Tea Party looks tame compared to what happened under Trump. Plus, after the aforementioned bipartisan victories (see above), McConnell’s GOP allies seem to think he has incentive to hold his party against the debt limit and let the Democrats figure it out on their own.

To the White House and some Democrats, slapping it onto reconciliation was a political loser. The administration feared that adding the debt limit in reconciliation would’ve spooked House Democratic moderates and given them a reason to vote against the upcoming budget resolution.

There are some procedural tricks that the White House seems to think it has up its sleeve when it comes to reconciliation. We don’t fully understand what they think can be done, but we’ll dig more and figure it out. Furthermore, Democrats can go back and amend the budget resolution to allow for the debt ceiling to be included and passed at a majority threshold. But that’s risky and will take some time, but it can be done.

Maybe the debt limit gets tacked onto the infrastructure package this fall, and swallowing a lift of the borrowing limit is the price of getting the $1 trillion package through. Maybe enough legislation piles up that it’s indistinguishable and becomes a big must-pass “cliff” that includes government funding, the borrowing cap, “human infrastructure” and hard infrastructure. 

Let us say this for certain: September is going to be a mess.

Do yourself a favor and read Politico’s Burgess Everett, Heather Caygle and Sarah Ferris — on the politics here. 

We have a new edition of The Canvass, our survey of senior Capitol Hill aides. This is a joint project with the Locust Street Group. Here are some new data points — straight from the minds of the most powerful aides on the Hill to you.

→ 71% of respondents believe that this Congress will pass legislation on infrastructure.

→ 55% of respondents believe that the debt limit will be raised through reconciliation. 

→ 48% of respondents say that the select committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riot will be ineffective at uncovering relevant information.

→ The majority of Senate staffers believe that a successor to Justice Stephen Breyer would be confirmed before the end of 2022.

We’ll have more from the survey this week for Premium subscribers. 

Wanna get in on the action? If you are a chief of staff, LD, comms director, staff director, or press secretary, sign up here to be the first to weigh in anonymously for next month’s survey.

THE FINAL BOUNCEBACK 

“You know there is a problem in North Carolina when you stop college basketball,” North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper told us.

Our final installment of The Bounceback takes you behind the scenes at how Cooper led the Tar Heel State through the pandemic, with a focus on funding and assistance for businesses and residents.  Check it out.

JOB MOVE

Oriana Piña, former director of Hispanic media for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and communications director for Rep. Darren Soto (D-Fla.), recently joined AT&T where she’ll manage communications and public relations for the Diversity and Inclusion Department.

MOMENTS

9:15 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.

9:30 a.m.: Vice President Kamala Harris will visit and speak at a community health center in D.C.

10:25 a.m.: Biden will leave Wilmington for the White House, and will arrive around 11:20 a.m.

12:30 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief. 

3:45 p.m.: Biden will get a briefing from FEMA, Homeland and Covid teams about how the pandemic is impacting hurricane readiness.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Europe Reopened to Americans. Why, It Asks, Hasn’t the U.S. Reciprocated?” by Nicholas Casey in Madrid

→ “Biden Administration Violating Decree on Migrant Children, Court Filing Says,” by Eileen Sullivan

WaPo

→ “Judge asks why Capitol rioters are paying just $1.5 million for attack, while U.S. taxpayers will pay more than $500 million,” by Spencer S. Hsu

→ “New York Assembly moves forward with Cuomo impeachment inquiry as the governor digs in, refusing to step down,” by Michael Scherer, Josh Dawsey and Ted Gup

Politico

→ “Biden railed against Trump’s immigration policies, now defends them in courts,” by Anita Kumar

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images